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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 08:36 AM

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I dont need to google this. Know it all by heart already. Basically in line with what i said.
plumberly
post Jan 27 2014, 08:53 AM

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QUOTE(value_investor @ Jan 27 2014, 04:31 AM)
If you read Economics Nobel Price winner Robert J. Shiller's book Irrational Exuberance, you will notice that Malaysia Real Estate Bubble has entered 'negative sentiment' phase since 2013, and will enter 'negative feedback loop' phase soon, then burst! The entire post-bubble dynamics might take few years to play themselves out.

This guy has successfully predicted 2000 US stock market crash, and 2008 US housing market crash with quite good accuracy!
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Thanks for the tip on the book. Will read it soon. Keen interest in reading and learning about global economic trend and human behavior.

Cheerio.
plumberly
post Jan 27 2014, 08:59 AM

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One observation here.

About 2 days after this poll was started, the "NO" was at 55% and "YES" was at 36% with poll population of less than 100 people.

Now with more than 400 people, the "NO" drops to 53% and "YES" increases to 40%.

The "YES" is on the increase but I am not saying they are right.

My 2 cents. Cheerio.
bearbearwong
post Jan 27 2014, 09:07 AM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Jan 27 2014, 02:45 AM)
No ... that's not what subprime means.
SUBPRIME in USA are category of ppl NOT qualified to get house loans. Not just bankrupt. It's bcoz banks in USA got a plan to reduce their risk from subprime borrowers with MBS (mortgage backed securities). They sell this MBS to other investors hence "transferring" the risk. With MBS, they also "average" out the risk bcoz it's a mixed of subprime and prime borrowers.

So in Msia ... are there ppl NOT qualified to get loans, getting loans. YES. They are consider SUBPRIME.
Ppl who uses  REFINANCING to buy another property with 10% downpayment. They refinance one property to buy 2 properties. And then they flip these property to make a huge profit margin. The process repeats until they are holding more and more properties. This is ONLY good when the market is in BULL mode.

Some even quit their day job doing this, living on rents. So their credit worthiness is compromised when they quit their jobs. Basically putting ALL in one basket .... Property basket. They also moved themselves frm PRIME to SUBPRIME category. The Msian banks may be prudent in their loans approval but borrowers were not. They think good times will keep rolling and property prices NEVER drop....  whistling.gif
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Oh gosh there you do it again.. not a lone ranger after all.. some dudes here keep goreng subprime issue to only include ppl who bancrupt.. well it is not... I have just demonstrated that holding power if any even they can afford wilk me making a losing investment.. purely based on calculation.. not taking into account rental yielsds in areas which is virtually certain to have none like outskirt areas.. expensive studios such as amanya (kes koyak when he admitted rental returns was not good... but at the same time without tenant holding is a loss irregardless you bought for 400k.. 500k.. still making a loss just margin wise may differ)...

So .. can I safely assume those high rise (which is observable at night of their occupancy rate) signifies that investors are holding ... so means the longer they hold.. the bigger margin in losing.. so long term invest is bullshit... those outskirt project got ppl rent dat much..

assuming those high rise able to rented out despite inflated rental price.. you gotta cross your fingers that that they rent there long term..



SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 27 2014, 09:08 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 27 2014, 08:22 AM)
Is it that difficult to google "Subprime mortgage crisis" ?
How to define subprime in USA ?
FICO score
BNM strict rulings and CCRIS checks essentially is the malaysia version of FICO. I suspect the current stringent of credit granting has cause the score to move to the 90s.
1. Payment history - those "0s" in CCRIS report
2. Credit utilisation - have you repaid down the outstanding loans. How many years to go
3. Length of credit history - to determine whether you are good paymaster
4. Types of credit used - list down the CC, car loan, personal loan, property loan
5. Recent searches for credit - all your existing application (not yet approved) are reflected in CCRIS

On top of that, BNM also has LTV 90%/70%, net income ruling, top up loan limited to 10 years, personal loan limited to 10 years etc

You guys judge for yourself if there is any resemblance of malaysian property loan to US subprime mortgage
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If Malaysia property crash 50%/70%, "Subprime" is still not an appropriate word to be named
IMO, correct word is "Property market bubble and crisis"

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 27 2014, 09:08 AM
bearbearwong
post Jan 27 2014, 10:11 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 09:08 AM)
If Malaysia property crash 50%/70%, "Subprime" is still not an appropriate word to be named
IMO, correct word is "Property market bubble and crisis"
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Actually subprime or not subprime refers to ones ability to repay.. if subprime (based on the above) is not a similar model to malaysia(claimed by many here)... that does not negate the fact that investors / flippers who hold prop in vacant mode will get burn.. correct or not..

Why suddenly malaysian in banking sector are as good as singaporean as we speak?.. no loop holes.. no bribe.. loan officet no sales target.. all loan approve to flippers are good all pass stringent test .. then no need worry di.. storm come also no problem... just dat u making a lost in investment right..
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 27 2014, 10:23 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 07:53 AM)
I hv a 70% loan with a bank, my property has gone up 67% now, I try to refinance my property with new valuation but it was rejected, bank says my income cannot support a higher loan. I try 2 banks
It is not easy to refinance as claimed by you
My LTV stands at 43% now
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Bank is not so silly to simply giv out loan la.

My case:

Last yr bot 3 props under 1 dev. Few banks hav so many queries tat 2 of the banks even called up dev asking for formal confirmation on the units I purchased. Reason being I applied fr 6 banks and the ccris suddenly popped up many application. So they wanna make sure I din take loan for more than 3 props I claimed purchase.

Thereafter, trying to get another in a new launching. Applied onli 4 banks. 1 of the bank advised dun go for any mortgage or loan regardless indi or company loan. Hard to get. The best is bank ll top up my company OD facility to another 2 mil and ask me to use it for the 1st 40%-50% until I can get a loan maybe 2 yrs later.

I reckon bank is rather play safe now. Hard to c a hard landing now. sweat.gif
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 27 2014, 10:28 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 27 2014, 10:11 AM)
Actually subprime or not subprime refers to ones ability to repay.. if subprime (based on the above) is not a similar model to malaysia(claimed by many here)...  that does not negate the fact that investors / flippers who hold prop in vacant mode will get burn.. correct or not..

Why suddenly malaysian in banking sector are as good as singaporean as we speak?..  no loop holes.. no bribe.. loan officet no sales target.. all loan approve to flippers are good all pass stringent test .. then no need worry di.. storm come also no problem... just dat u making a lost in investment right..
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I really doubt you hv borrowed money fr banks before, IMO Malaysia banks are more conservative than Singapore's bank
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 10:36 AM

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I was countering people who wants to keeps harping about subprime subprime subprime and how similar to US we are when Malaysia is nowehere close. Sometimes DDDs are annoying like to twist peoples words. That bankrupt was an example because it cant happen in Malaysia.
KChan
post Jan 27 2014, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(manapergi @ Jan 27 2014, 07:28 AM)
burst huh? see the demand these people age 15-24  whistling.gif
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Yeah, the demand is there for all first time owners and younger generation. Problem is that non of them can afford the high prices now.


SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 10:28 AM)
I really doubt you hv borrowed money fr banks before, IMO Malaysia banks are more conservative than Singapore's bank
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If banks in Malaysia is so bad, then crash will happen. They are praying that bank in malaysia fck up so that the crash prophecy comes true.
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 27 2014, 10:42 AM

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If banks down, the mee goreng ll b up then. bruce.gif
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 27 2014, 10:40 AM)
Yeah, the demand is there for all first time owners and younger generation. Problem is that non of them can afford the high prices now.
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No worries the generation before that are buying it all, the 25 and above.
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 27 2014, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 27 2014, 10:36 AM)
I was countering people who wants to keeps harping about subprime subprime subprime and how similar to US we are when Malaysia is nowehere close. Sometimes DDDs are annoying like to twist peoples words. That bankrupt was an example because it cant happen in Malaysia.
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Biasalah...
A few hardcore DDD always say "UUU camp says market always up, forever up and no corrections"
p/s : I damn miss the GOLD fella lah, he knows m goin to screw him for th PIGS (Euro crisis)
biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 27 2014, 10:46 AM
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 27 2014, 10:48 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 10:42 AM)
Biasalah...
A few hardcore DDD always say "UUU camp says market always up, forever up and no corrections"
p/s : I damn miss the GOLD fella lah, he knows m goin to screw him for th PIGS (Euro crisis)
biggrin.gif
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He is here. With diff nick. He knows wat v did last summer........oopsi.......last CNY I mean brows.gif sweat.gif
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 10:48 AM

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I just notice that case koyak thing in Amaya quote from that beruang...he really do not understand what people post. I never said rental was not good. He really likes to keep bringing that up. I think if the beruang theory is true where if u are rich , they dont bother spend time in forums, then that beruang must be very poor. He sure does write a lot in forums. And i guess today i am very poor for spending too much time here.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 10:50 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 10:42 AM)
Biasalah...
A few hardcore DDD always say "UUU camp says market always up, forever up and no corrections"
p/s : I damn miss the GOLD fella lah, he knows m goin to screw him for th PIGS (Euro crisis)
biggrin.gif
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I never know about him, but always heard about him from u guys.
Showtime747
post Jan 27 2014, 10:51 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 09:08 AM)
If Malaysia property crash 50%/70%, "Subprime" is still not an appropriate word to be named
IMO, correct word is "Property market bubble and crisis"
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I agree with you. It is totally 2 difference scenario (if malaysia property market crash really happen in the future). At the point of giving out loans, the banks have vet through the borrowers' ability to service the loan and the borrowers are not "subprime" so to speak. Only when there is a mass unemployment problem, or crazy interest rate hikes like 1997/98 then borrowers will face difficulties paying installment. But there is nothing to do with "US sub prime". The extreme DDD people here are too obsessed with seeing a bubble burst. Every example like sub prime, Euro crisis, Japan deflation, Bkt Beruntung will be related to the next property crash tongue.gif
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 10:58 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 27 2014, 10:51 AM)
I agree with you. It is totally 2 difference scenario (if malaysia property market crash really happen in the future). At the point of giving out loans, the banks have vet through the borrowers' ability to service the loan and the borrowers are not "subprime" so to speak. Only when there is a mass unemployment problem, or crazy interest rate hikes like 1997/98 then borrowers will face difficulties paying installment. But there is nothing to do with "US sub prime". The extreme DDD people here are too obsessed with seeing a bubble burst. Every example like sub prime, Euro crisis, Japan deflation, Bkt Beruntung will be related to the next property crash  tongue.gif
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Well said well said. When they are too obsessed on seing a bubble that is when they become annoying.

I mean i already ackonowledge bubble burst already..in bukit beruntong but they want all of Malaysia. Never can admit that prime areas are really doing very well....and really likes to pick on Amaya ( the condo and me).

This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jan 27 2014, 10:59 AM
HuiChyr
post Jan 27 2014, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 27 2014, 10:58 AM)
Well said well said. When they are too obsessed on seing a bubble that is when they become annoying.

I mean i already ackonowledge bubble burst already..in bukit beruntong but they want all of Malaysia. Never can admit that prime areas are really doing very well....and really likes to pick on Amaya ( the condo and me).
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If u and yr UUU buds r confident in the market?.... I suggest ALL in la..... drool.gif
Better than wasting time posting here right? brows.gif

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