again in kangkung age, there still need time to accumulate for down payment.... n many misc charges...

So u mean Shell, Petronas, Exxon, Total want oil price to fall ? or UAE, Saudi Arabia want oil price to fall ? or was it Malaysia government who highly depends on oil income want oil price to fall ?

Maybe CMMC Goldmine or Peninsular Gold in Raub want Gold price to fall ? so that they can earn less ? or those who invest life time saving into Gold r very happy to see the money tumbling.

Flipper r actually just a bunch of kucirap insignificant to determine the property price, it 8s the buyer demand, looking at current over supplied properties, price fall in not an option anymore is a definiteness, just that Lowyat forum flipper/owner/real estate agent wanna live in Fantasy Island & shouting "The Plane The Plane" every time they see a new project launching. .lol

The question now is who drive the market ? Many are buying for investment, not for own stay. When buying for investment, expected profits outweight everything else.

gold n oil have global player... they not need to answer to their investors... global issue.. then close shop.

but, those local prop players need to answer to their local investors...



This post has been edited by sampool: Jan 26 2014, 06:50 PM

Matured areas damandara heights, sri hartamas, desa park city, TTDI, Bandar Utama, Bangsar, Kenny Heights..and several others..even when property bubble burst..how much can d landed property prices dropped in these areas? 5% ??

these are the iron fortresses, fav examples to quote no fall, upupupupupup!
sure can buy them to live it, be top 1% popn if u can afford.
but anything new or old there to invest, flip, goreng?
that maybe 10% of all kv, 90% out there in other areas.

this double income thingy.... divorces rising, suits, bankruptcies, careful, best to count on one income, the other for emergency....

These were the places that went thru the 1997 and 2003 global crisis without major price downward adjustment.
I think the "save area" would be extended to some other mature area, such as Puchong, Kepong, Cheras, Sri Dsara, Sungai Buloh, SS2/3. Shah Alam landed properties where most of the landed properties are owners occupied. Owners would defend their own shelters to the death, so possibly there would be price stagnant but no transactions scenerio during the bad time,, price unlikely to drop significantly.

The concern would be more on the fast growing and more likely oversupply area, such as Cyberjaya, Mont Kiara, Jalan Ampang row, Ara Dsara....No offence to those who have vested in this area, this is my personal observation.

Agreed.

It is houseowner areas vs. investment areas!

Well, I did made some comparison. BU 12 landed freehold based on iproperty is about 1-1.3 million for 2000-2300 sq feet. And yesterday I went for the preview launch of PJ MidTown (Section 13) by Sime Darby & IOI. The price for 1200 sq feet with 2 car park lease hold service suite start from 1M and above. To me is crazy pricing. Developer is riding the uptrend craze.

If there is property price correction (Don't want to use the word bubble or crash as its sensitive), which one will hangus first? And be honest to ourself, as buyer scouting around to buy property which one will you buy as a buyer?

Assuming BU12 unit as mentioned did go down by 5%, I wonder how much will the service suite will go down?

What I see is that many secondary market price is trending instead of booming upwards like all the new property launch. Secondary market price goes up because it's catching up with the price of new properties that is launch within the same area. If there is new property launch in BU at new record, then every other secondary unit there will trend accordingly but never will beat the price of those new properties. In the end, prices of all properties goes up because of more new properties being launch at higher price than the previous project. I dare not think how long this will last. Definitely won't go on forever.

Base on historical trend, economy is a cycle. It has its high, and it has its low. But problem is that no one will know where is the high or low is coming. Malaysia KLSE index is at:-
Feb 1997 - 1278
Aug 1998 - 403

Dec 2007 - 1452
Nov 2008 - 926

Seems like every 10 years we have economy cycle. Now only is 2014, so maybe we still have another 3 years to go. But then again, with all the sudden price hike and GST coming in 2015, maybe will that come much earlier? It's just anyone guess.

This is strictly my own point of view. Not looking to argue right or wrong. Just trying to contribute my own analysis.

Yup. I agree.

Sorry I thought you were referring to buying instead of renting.

Back to renting, nowadays very difficult to find cashflow positive investment nowadays. Rental may not be RM2500, but RM1500-1800 maybe. You will be lucky if you can find some with 5% rental yield.

Previously the couple may be able to buy because of zero-entry. No savings of RM100k+ also can buy. After 2014, no more DIBS and zero entry, so they can't afford to buy anymore. They have to rent and try to save enough to pay the deposit

+1 Especially the comparison on landed vs high rise psf price

Yeah, rental rates never really goes up but prices of property goes all the way up. I foresee that many people will not buy property in the future and just go on renting. Why buy and pay instalment at RM 2500 for the mortgage. If for me, I would rather rent at 1500-1800. Let the owner worry about the instalment and maintenance and miscellaneous. If owner wanna increase rental, cabut to another cheaper rental location. Living nomad live. Atleast can stay in many new house and make the house dirty and move to new place again.

I definitely know some people is doing that already. LOL

but when u retire times... u hv property and no property is matter u (retirement!!!)

there is no free lunch.. house owner not stupid anyway!!!

This post has been edited by sampool: Jan 26 2014, 08:22 PM

Other than sentimental reason, there is no reason to own property when price/annual rental is more than 20.

It's vely personal wo. One can say no need to own props envy another who owns dozen of props. Another can insist owning props advising those havnt started buying.

Vely personal boss. It won't harm if holding 10mil upon retirement without any risk of investments goin down. It's not gonna hurt to when holding 30 debt free props but onli 1mil cash for retirement. If few props not rented out, it's not gonna giv any trouble. But ll b hard to hav all props unable to rent out. If it's so, then I oso wish to know how to do it.

The ratio is not from me. I heard from a persoanl financial podcast. They factored in all the loan interest, fees, blah blah blah and came out with the above ratio. Above this ratio, it is just more profitable putting money somewhere else.

After QE tapering, expect effective bank interest rate returned to pre-2007 level i.e. 3% higher than current. New supply of property for demand created by flippers will be in surplus. Don't expect aggregate income to rise faster than inflation. Many dibs projects take vp within a short period of time. Property valuation is substantial lower than asking price due to auctioned price.

During crisis, property market will be segmented into 2 i.e. private sellers and foreclosures. No private sellers is willing to sell at a lose hence asking price always include his cost, expenses and profit if allowed; hence to general public and re agents, price is stagnant or even rise with interest rate. However, in foreclosure sales, price can be 40% lower as happened in the U.S, U.K, Spain, etc.

In economic, anything could happen in the short term. However, no one include gomen, collection of companies could resist price returned to equilibrium.

For any extra RM spent on housing loan repayment, there is a RM reduction in disposable income. Given residential properties don't generate income or add value to aggregate economy, except to banks, house price increased is detrimental to aggregate economy.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 26 2014, 09:36 PM

just sharing interesting article

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-p...-091004258.html

key: 87% of msian work in spore has no intention to b sporean.. they are just interested in spore wages
56% of sporean which to migrate.. majority preffer msia..

In fact, prop investors can find good deals in public auction, if searching hard. My friend bought a few auction properties in 2013, around 30-40% below the market price. He acquires them via public auction, renovate and touch up, rent them out, all could be done in 4 months time. Quick turnaround time.

This post has been edited by cheahcw2003: Jan 26 2014, 09:40 PM