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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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HuiChyr
post Jan 15 2014, 04:35 AM

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[quote=accetera,Jan 14 2014, 09:33 PM]
Will this bridge tumble to signify property bubble? #jokingonly

Wow ...where is this prop? The bridge is quite impressive. icon_idea.gif
HuiChyr
post Jan 15 2014, 09:20 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jan 15 2014, 09:00 AM)
assuming there's a bubble, and properties price plunge.
may i ask who will be the biggest benefactor?

the wisher for huge property price declination, may i ask what is in store for you guys/girls?
of course besides the eagerly awaited "I told you so!" quote, what else is in store.
care to enlighten me please?

thanks.
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Benefactors: Property players that have cashed out and waiting to re-enter at lower pricing.

"I told u so" is just a bragging right for timing the market accurately. Every market/industries have their cyclical pattern. By cheering on DDD or BBB, doesn't make it so. IT's matter of financial logic. The simple guideline: Monthly cost > Rental = overpriced. (Of course, there are more factors to look into).
HuiChyr
post Jan 17 2014, 06:48 AM

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QUOTE(SilverSpoon @ Jan 17 2014, 01:04 AM)
IF you are reading Singapore, might as well read about Malaysia:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2...bble-economy/3/

sweat.gif sweat.gif sweat.gif
HuiChyr
post Jan 22 2014, 05:47 PM

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Check this out abt TRUE flippers:
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/936646

HuiChyr
post Jan 24 2014, 06:01 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jan 24 2014, 02:26 PM)
Thats why i said this thread should never have been turned into a poll. It just gives rise to such comments n arguments. Its also the thread starter's responsibility to try and ensure discussions are kept civil to a certain extent. Thats what i did on my earlier thread and everything was fine. You on the other hand havent had much input on this thread which is a pity cuz a reasonable thread earlier was closed cuz of your haste. Did u also note that many of the discussions here are actually 'empty' talk Lets see how long it takes to reach 120 pages. Even i have stopped providing any valuable input here. Why bother when the thread isnt going anywhere and cannot be a good source of reference in the future? When this thread is closed in 100 pages time, who is gonna bother to refer to it?
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You cannot say like that. Some ppl are testing the market opinion. YOU may not get much out of it but others DO.
I definitely did. .... I learn how repo man works and the mechanism etc.... blink.gif

Filter out the empty talk and find the gems. Ppl whom participate have their own agendas but reality is NO ONE man/woman can dictate the market. So if u think it's UUU or DDD ... then we see how the market react. nod.gif
HuiChyr
post Jan 27 2014, 02:45 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 27 2014, 01:49 AM)
U guys really really dont have any idea what really happened in the subprime crisis. In america subprime crisis was a situation where somebody who is bankrupt can get a loan buying a bungalow, get it? Is that happening in malaysia? No! Enuff said.
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No ... that's not what subprime means.
SUBPRIME in USA are category of ppl NOT qualified to get house loans. Not just bankrupt. It's bcoz banks in USA got a plan to reduce their risk from subprime borrowers with MBS (mortgage backed securities). They sell this MBS to other investors hence "transferring" the risk. With MBS, they also "average" out the risk bcoz it's a mixed of subprime and prime borrowers.

So in Msia ... are there ppl NOT qualified to get loans, getting loans. YES. They are consider SUBPRIME.
Ppl who uses REFINANCING to buy another property with 10% downpayment. They refinance one property to buy 2 properties. And then they flip these property to make a huge profit margin. The process repeats until they are holding more and more properties. This is ONLY good when the market is in BULL mode.

Some even quit their day job doing this, living on rents. So their credit worthiness is compromised when they quit their jobs. Basically putting ALL in one basket .... Property basket. They also moved themselves frm PRIME to SUBPRIME category. The Msian banks may be prudent in their loans approval but borrowers were not. They think good times will keep rolling and property prices NEVER drop.... whistling.gif


HuiChyr
post Jan 27 2014, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 27 2014, 10:58 AM)
Well said well said. When they are too obsessed on seing a bubble that is when they become annoying.

I mean i already ackonowledge bubble burst already..in bukit beruntong but they want all of Malaysia. Never can admit that prime areas are really doing very well....and really likes to pick on Amaya ( the condo and me).
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If u and yr UUU buds r confident in the market?.... I suggest ALL in la..... drool.gif
Better than wasting time posting here right? brows.gif
HuiChyr
post Jan 27 2014, 11:21 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 27 2014, 09:07 AM)
Oh gosh there you do it again.. not a lone ranger after all.. some dudes here keep goreng subprime issue to only include ppl who bancrupt.. well it is not... I have just demonstrated that holding power if any even they can afford wilk me making a losing investment.. purely based on calculation.. not taking into account rental yielsds in areas which is virtually certain to have none like outskirt areas.. expensive studios such as amanya (kes koyak when he admitted rental returns was not good... but at the same time without tenant holding is a loss irregardless you bought for 400k.. 500k.. still making a loss just margin wise may differ)...

So .. can I safely assume those high rise (which is observable at night of their occupancy rate)  signifies that investors are holding ... so means the longer they hold.. the bigger margin in losing.. so long term invest is bullshit... those outskirt project got ppl rent dat much..

assuming those high rise able to rented out despite inflated rental price.. you gotta cross your fingers that that they rent there long term..
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I believe I had touched sensitive nerves when saying bubble......
Well, share market just drop quite a bit .... lets see how it goes..... smile.gif
HuiChyr
post Jan 27 2014, 11:24 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 27 2014, 11:22 AM)
We already reaped our rewards and basking in the sun. Today i am too poor according to the bear theory.
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If already reap rewards then got bullets to go in FULL SWING right?
ALL IN LA...... PUT YR MONEY WHERE YR MOUTH IS..... cool2.gif
HuiChyr
post Jan 28 2014, 06:29 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 04:54 PM)
Ya I always spread false information, but I think I manage to fool you only  brows.gif
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YOU are a property agent? .... Now I understand your UUU stance. shakehead.gif
Why break your own rice bowl right?
HuiChyr
post Jan 28 2014, 07:01 AM

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USA was playing the same tune .... property prices NEVER falls and in the end it did .... by 50%.
I heard this from a Malaysian fren living in Atlanta. He owned 4 property then and collecting rentals. He was even thinking abt investing in Malaysia. Eventually the bubble burst and he focused back to USA.

He requested Rm1million from his dad, quit his job and started buying properties. He bought houses at the cheap, renovated it and rent it out. Hold it for a while and sell them. The process buy and selling is like selling meat in the market (his words, not mine)

But now prices slowly increases and "meat selling" slows. But it's ok ... he and his family living a good life on rentals alone. And the properties value he's holding is increasing.

So the conclusion price NEVER drop is BS. When the bubble burst it does.
If you r only looking at chart spanning from 1930 until now .... of course the trending is rising. So you assume the price never drops. But now, there were never such BOOM in the property market where supply is ample. Only problem is pre-launches, investors and developers are holding their prices up. Not wanting to let go.

Lets not get into supply vs demand argument when demand include speculative aspect. Because speculative demand is unquenchable while own-stay demand is one house per household.

And knowing the property market is majority based on COCR speculation, debt, low rental and "holding power"..... it bound to pop.
Oh and on "holding power" ..... try hold it for 2 years when monthly you r bleeding negative cashflow when property prices are stagnant. Your "holding power" reduces with time.

This post has been edited by HuiChyr: Jan 28 2014, 07:14 AM
HuiChyr
post Jan 28 2014, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(Brad11 @ Jan 28 2014, 09:29 AM)
Not boasting, when I made my 1st mil from property, i wasn't in debt at all. You only claim you have the 'moolah' when you've sold off the property.
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I know u r telling the truth ... and you are not boasting too.
Many ppl who played the property market made that kind of money.
BUT ... think abt this. 1 mill in the bank... collecting FD/saving interest rate .... soon itching to go back in to property right?

Downpayment 10% only ma... so they keep rolling that cash until owe 5 - 10 properties ... ALL in debt. More so as time progresses, real est increase in price hence that 10% and debt increases too ...
This is the kind of ppl I talking abt. Cash 1million, Debt 3mill. icon_question.gif

You maybe wiser in your financial planning but many are not. Greed overtook them.

Wiser ones know when to STOP rolling that cash and cash out. But if the sentiment is PRICE will always go up ... then these ppl dig bigger holes all the time.

This post has been edited by HuiChyr: Jan 28 2014, 11:06 AM
HuiChyr
post Jan 28 2014, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(Brad11 @ Jan 28 2014, 02:27 PM)
Agree!

Those who wait, will continue to wait till old age. Probably will end up renting the rest of their lives. You'll have better luck with PR1MA or outskirts. Don't dream of prime locations.

Prices will never go down, instead continue to rise especially in Klang Valley hot zones. Borrowing/lending policy will be tighthened! The longer you wait, the more out of reach your dream home becomes. Time will only benefit those with 'moolah' and holding power.

Low ballers will be the biggest losers i.e. those who claim to know a lot, talk a lot but have no guts to commit or with insufficient $$$$.
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How do you know DDD who commented here doesn't have the $$$ to buy out right without bank financing?
Or better yet ... already fully paid the house they are living in and cash out other props?
Please la ... for those with ONLY property as their SOLE investment vehicle ... UUU is the only thing u'r praying for.
Time DOES NOT benefit anybody in investments .... it's TIMING.
HuiChyr
post Jan 28 2014, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(Brad11 @ Jan 28 2014, 02:43 PM)
Wow. U sound so sure about it.
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Yes I am ....
HuiChyr
post Jan 28 2014, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(Brad11 @ Jan 28 2014, 02:57 PM)
I am finding it hard to comprehend the above....sounds horribly wrong..
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Since u insist on an English lesson here we go:
TIME: U rely on the value to keep going UP with TIME alone. The value just increase as time goes by. As KChan pointed out.
TIMING: U move in and out of an investment at the correct time. So your TIMING is correct but hard to predict.

So predict the timing of this bubble pops => cool2.gif
HuiChyr
post Jan 28 2014, 10:43 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 28 2014, 05:36 PM)
Hi Rabel,

I'm interested to know your investment strategy as well. I like to know what is the main point to look for in property investment.

I understand in general that property is very good investment for long term. But with current new launches getting higher and higher on their pricing, do you still think that it is still a good investment? If yes, may I know why you think so.  I'm still trying to figure out on what basis that this price will continue to sustain its upward climb. I would love to hear some insight and opinion, and learn as well. Because based on my analysis many many post back, I'm quite sceptical in the up trend.

I feel it is better that this thread shall have more debate and point of view with well articulate logics. Shall not be flaming by just giving each other thoughts without some explanation. Thank.
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I think we should start a thread ... investment strategy for property. Or not?
Later fella make fun of the other fella's strategy.... koyak! cry.gif Hahahaha.....
HuiChyr
post Jan 28 2014, 10:57 PM

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QUOTE(value_investor @ Jan 28 2014, 07:02 PM)
I'm one of the type of investors you described. I have cashed out of property already. Most of my millions are in better income producing assets now. These people who says "property always goes up" are typical middle class who will never be rich becoz they possess low financial intelligence. They will forever be slave to money rather than master of it!
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Good for you man ... good for you. rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif
HuiChyr
post Jan 29 2014, 06:24 PM

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QUOTE(zephyrus9999 @ Jan 28 2014, 11:08 PM)
Investors are not likely to aligned to UUU nor DDD. If you cant manage ur risk profiles of dumping >100k to invest on something, then go settle down for FDs. In the end of the day shouting here and there up down left right gain nothing. Investors are already pocketing handsome profit years along and gearing up for future, whereas our keyboard warriors here still shouting for bubble and gained NOTHING. Haha, sour grapes are still the same. Probably when 5 years back also shouting the same propaganda on affordability. Now when see their peers cash in and have nice cars, then blame the flippers (which of coz its their fault!). Hell, if I were to pass you free easy moneh 100k in front of your face you would die to grab it right? If you couldnt 'afford' 5 years back, which definitely not now, then it sux to be you bro :-/

Normally these biased kind of ppl, when ask them about property future, they will complain and blabber tons of cons (which I do agree too!). But when ask them how much have you gained from it, they couldnt answer. The same attitude 10 years back and also now. It wont change. What a shame ^.^
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I believe ppl in this thread talking abt property already been playing this investment for some time. Looking at how property price rises for the past 10yrs, they had made their money. So tht "sour grape/jealous" comment is a little kids' game.

Most DDD campers already align themselves for the worst to come ... bubble bursting, correction, stagnation in pricing, whatever u want to call it. Holding power diminishes with time .... assuming price stagnation drags on for 2 -3 years, investors with negative cash flow will let go at lower than current price. Price competition will drive the price even further. Stubborn investors will only see themselves in foreclosures.

UUU campers only looked at asking and transacted price. These data are easily available. The behind scene is what's important. Negative cash flow. We are already in negative cash flow for the past 5 years (installment + cost > rental). So the following events will move very fast: => price war => foreclosure (bubble burst) rclxub.gif

This post has been edited by HuiChyr: Jan 29 2014, 06:25 PM
HuiChyr
post Jan 29 2014, 06:56 PM

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QUOTE(kohts @ Jan 29 2014, 06:48 PM)
No increase in interest rate. My cash n fd continue to loose more to inflation n exchange rate.....want to convert it to equities or property people say high risk. Got fxxked standing straight.
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Yup, interest rate is the one that pricks the bubble.
Since no increase ....BBB campers can release a sigh of relieve ..... or not ?

Check out this thread:
https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopi...&#entry66098332
HuiChyr
post Jan 31 2014, 03:42 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 30 2014, 01:10 PM)
I have been reading articles and always pointed out that malaysia property is still relatively cheap compared to Singapore and Hong Kong... I cant help but feel that this is not a fair comparison because I think Singapore and Hong Kong folks earning power are so much better than we in Malaysia...

Example... Singapore and Malaysia both earn sgd5k and rm5k respectively... yes... property price probably thereabout the same when it comes to dollar vs dollar...

But other items like food and consumer products are cheaper in SG... example like chicken rice or IT products... it is cheaper there in Singapore assuming you earn and spend there....

So I think they have more disposable income than in Malaysia... my friend working at Sg also told me... earn sgd5k and probably paid sgd1k for iphone but we pay rm2k plus for iphone...

So what u guys think? Is it fair to compare property price between the countries?

Any sharing in your thoughts are very much welcome !!!
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