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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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Minolta
post Jan 26 2014, 12:54 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 25 2014, 01:43 PM)
Bro, your link is priced at RM729k end lot 2.5 storey. After bidding, don't know how much leh

The house you mentioned price came down to RM653k is another auction which is 2 storey corner. Different house leh

http://www.iproperty.com.my/propertylistin...k-house-forsale
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Well, so much for the alleged "bubble bursting". Now, who got more evidence of bubble bursting. Of course, assuming that one does appreciate the fact that burst means price drop.
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 01:32 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 26 2014, 12:32 AM)
yes, i said price guarantee UP, so it's definitely UP UP UP.
BUT, if the price UP not so much, after your calculation example, then it is not worth it, but the price is still UP ...

that is the main point i'm trying to drill in... i've seen example of property price drop after the 97 crisis but eventually it will be UP and more than the purchase price and it's uptrend if consider today's price...

come on...you have to agree with me on this, the price will definitely go up in the long run... 10 years time frame...
smile.gif
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What is ur point making a general statement.. dat property price will go up forever despite calculation prove otherwise.. oh gosh.. not necessary price can crash just like usa and dubai.. singapore.. bukit beruntung.. kota warisan.. coming kip sentral sepang ..

righy crash then wont up.. are u a newbie agent... after seeing these figures ppl who invested in place not supposed to pray hard.. those flippers wanbabe.. u choice..

this is a failed investment izzit.. risk is just too high myfriend even flipping and profiiting 200k and hold gor 10 years..

those in both megatownship investors.. see for yoursrlf possibility of holding longer and hardcore home owners.. thete is high posdibility investment burn..

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 26 2014, 02:16 AM
twincharger07
post Jan 26 2014, 02:32 AM

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QUOTE(lamode @ Jan 25 2014, 05:53 PM)
twincharger07

saw ur avatar and i got a question in mind.

If or when the bubble happens, would you change it to a bubble tea?  laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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just chill with cappuccino and watch the show.. cool2.gif
bubble tea like kids drink..
Showtime747
post Jan 26 2014, 06:10 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 25 2014, 10:09 PM)
It is not unknown many flippers took advantage of loop hole, instead of supposedly one unit, they bought multiple dibs units with sole intention to flip upon v.p.
Credit risks of these over stretched flippers is indifference to pre-2007 subprime borrowers in the u.s.
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Loophole ? Banks still need to vet through all loan applications. It is not like the USA sub-prime where the approval hurdle is much lower (hence termed as sub-prime). BNM has strict ruling like DSR, LTV 70%, Net income etc. In CCRIS, even loan applications in progress will be highlighted. So it is very difficult to fool the banks with multiple application at the same time. Banks know every loans you already have and also in progress of application.

With DIBS + zero entry previously, it doesn't mean flippers can buy as many as they like without applying for loans. They still have to get the loans approved. So, the banks vetting process will still have to be passed through in order to buy a property.

Unless there is any other specific loophole for unqualified borrower which you can highlight ?
Showtime747
post Jan 26 2014, 06:14 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 26 2014, 01:32 AM)
What is ur point making a general statement.. dat property price will go up forever despite calculation prove otherwise.. oh gosh.. not necessary price can crash just like usa and dubai.. singapore.. bukit beruntung.. kota warisan.. coming kip sentral sepang ..

righy crash then wont up.. are u a newbie agent... after seeing these figures ppl who invested in place not supposed to pray hard..  those flippers wanbabe.. u choice..

this is a failed investment izzit.. risk is just too high myfriend even flipping and profiiting 200k and hold gor 10 years..

those in both megatownship investors.. see for yoursrlf possibility of holding longer and hardcore home owners.. thete is high posdibility investment burn..
*
bearbear, he is correct as property prices in Malaysia historically grows steadily. There are some short period where the price consolidates before it shot up again. And currently we are all here and wait for the price to consolidate and take advantage of it tongue.gif
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 26 2014, 06:39 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 26 2014, 12:09 AM)
850k after 10 years... sure up lor.. u di pay 420k installment.. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k..

so 650k -420k-75k-25k -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. U STILL OWE THE BANK 30K.. Do you know ?  Flipping instantly.. those say long term investment is lying through their teeth..

lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
Means loan 650k -420k-75k-25k-200k= you earn 70k for 10 years.. means a year is 7k... per month is rm583 DSL per month rental.. hardly can get a room even flat sin KL..  u sure.. just to say up..

We have not factored legal fees.. stamp duties.. gosh.. maybe think .. subsales 750k DSL hoping for 200k.. srlling 10 years is sucide.. immediately sales upon VP can..

so those agent tell you sure untung.. let them hold.. 5 years above also die.. even home owners be prudent.. a DSL outskirt cannot reach 950k.. who wanna buy 10 year old prop.. haizz..
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Boss think of the brighter side. Rental income is not mentioned in ur assumption le. icon_rolleyes.gif
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 26 2014, 07:28 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 26 2014, 12:09 AM)
850k after 10 years... sure up lor.. u di pay 420k installment.. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k..

so 650k -420k-75k-25k -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. U STILL OWE THE BANK 30K.. Do you know ?  Flipping instantly.. those say long term investment is lying through their teeth..

lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
Means loan 650k -420k-75k-25k-200k= you earn 70k for 10 years.. means a year is 7k... per month is rm583 DSL per month rental.. hardly can get a room even flat sin KL..  u sure.. just to say up..

We have not factored legal fees.. stamp duties.. gosh.. maybe think .. subsales 750k DSL hoping for 200k.. srlling 10 years is sucide.. immediately sales upon VP can..

so those agent tell you sure untung.. let them hold.. 5 years above also die.. even home owners be prudent.. a DSL outskirt cannot reach 950k.. who wanna buy 10 year old prop.. haizz..
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Tis is true. Agree
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 26 2014, 07:35 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 26 2014, 12:32 AM)
yes, i said price guarantee UP, so it's definitely UP UP UP.
BUT, if the price UP not so much, after your calculation example, then it is not worth it, but the price is still UP ...

that is the main point i'm trying to drill in... i've seen example of property price drop after the 97 crisis but eventually it will be UP and more than the purchase price and it's uptrend if consider today's price...

come on...you have to agree with me on this, the price will definitely go up in the long run... 10 years time frame...
smile.gif
*
Landed is very very safe.
For those highrise launched last year, I feel that certain project price are too aggressive, is it hard to say that price will be higher after 5/10 yrs. IMO rental market is so encouraging, largely due to oversupply
However if RM further depreciate significantly (which I am fully confident with), no way for property price to drop in long run.
My main purpose to buy property in MALAYSIA is to safeguard my buying power. Real estate is a good instrument to hedge RM depreciation

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 26 2014, 07:44 AM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 26 2014, 07:39 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 26 2014, 06:39 AM)
Boss think of the brighter side. Rental income is not mentioned in ur assumption le.  icon_rolleyes.gif
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I did factor in this aspect but to my surprise that some people dun agree it.
IMO, if buy for own stay, rental shd be calculated in also, it is part of the savings

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 26 2014, 07:39 AM
icemanfx
post Jan 26 2014, 07:59 AM

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QUOTE(Martinis @ Jan 26 2014, 12:28 AM)
Instead of suppressing, government should encourage healthy appreciation of malaysian property market to correct the "cheapness" compared to regionals. Once there are more wealth created, malaysian economy will be bigger as spending power goes up....some goes to investment into capital goods, some consumpton, even more imports to spur the local enonomy growth.
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Kangkong mentality mean for kangkong income and not geared for steak, shashimi income.

QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 26 2014, 12:32 AM)
yes, i said price guarantee UP, so it's definitely UP UP UP.
BUT, if the price UP not so much, after your calculation example, then it is not worth it, but the price is still UP ...

that is the main point i'm trying to drill in... i've seen example of property price drop after the 97 crisis but eventually it will be UP and more than the purchase price and it's uptrend if consider today's price...

come on...you have to agree with me on this, the price will definitely go up in the long run... 10 years time frame...
smile.gif
*
Due to inflation, absolute price is increased over the year. However, buying property incurs interest payment and should be included for valuation.

QUOTE(Minolta @ Jan 26 2014, 12:54 AM)
Well, so much for the alleged "bubble bursting". Now, who got more evidence of bubble bursting. Of course, assuming that one does appreciate the fact that burst means price drop.
*
Unlike stock or commodity, property is illiquid. As foreclosures take 12 to 24 months, hence, please be patient and crunch time will come after vp of many dibs developments.

QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 26 2014, 06:10 AM)
Loophole ? Banks still need to vet through all loan applications. It is not like the USA sub-prime where the approval hurdle is much lower (hence termed as sub-prime). BNM has strict ruling like DSR, LTV 70%, Net income etc. In CCRIS, even loan applications in progress will be highlighted. So it is very difficult to fool the banks with multiple application at the same time. Banks know every loans you already have and also in progress of application.

With DIBS + zero entry previously, it doesn't mean flippers can buy as many as they like without applying for loans. They still have to get the loans approved. So, the banks vetting process will still have to be passed through in order to buy a property. 

Unless there is any other specific loophole for unqualified borrower which you can highlight ?
*
It is common for people to apply loan from a few banks simultaneously, after received offers from a few banks supposedly for one unit, as few banks check ccris again after loan approval, it is not unknown for flippers to accept all offer and bought multiple units. Further, many flippers paid deposit by cc installment i.e. zero cash investment. If this does not constitute sub-prime, what is?

QUOTE(661188 @ Jan 26 2014, 06:27 AM)
double every 10yr is normal. the same mee goreng that you pay rm5 now will cost you rm10 in 10yr and become rm20 in 20yr.

when i went standard1 the curry mee in school canteen only sell 10cent.
*
Property market is not something new. Ever wonder why older people (e.g. gen x) and have more resources are not overwhelming in current property market frenzy?

QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 26 2014, 07:35 AM)
Landed is very very safe.
For those highrise launched last year, I feel that certain project price are too aggressive, is it hard to say that price will be higher after 5/10 yrs. IMO rental market is so encouraging, largely due to oversupply
However if RM further depreciate significantly (which I am fully confident with), no way for property price to drop in long run.
My main purpose to buy property in MALAYSIA is to safeguard my buying power. Real estate is a good instrument to hedge RM depreciation
*
Property in Malaysia is priced in RM, how to hedge against RM depreciation? rclxub.gif



This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 26 2014, 08:19 AM
BTimes
post Jan 26 2014, 08:10 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 26 2014, 07:35 AM)
Landed is very very safe.
For those highrise launched last year, I feel that certain project price are too aggressive, is it hard to say that price will be higher after 5/10 yrs. IMO rental market is so encouraging, largely due to oversupply
However if RM further depreciate significantly (which I am fully confident with), no way for property price to drop in long run.
My main purpose to buy property in MALAYSIA is to safeguard my buying power. Real estate is a good instrument to hedge RM depreciation
*
Yes, go for gated and guarded freehold landed. It is a very resilient investment nod.gif
cheahcw2003
post Jan 26 2014, 08:11 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 07:59 AM)
Further, many flippers paid deposit by cc installment i.e. zero cash investment. If this does not constitute sub-prime, what is?
Property market is not something new. Ever wonder why older people (e.g. gen x) and have more resources are not overwhelming in current property market frenzy?
*
Not many investors whom I know of using credit cards/ balance transfer to buy property, especially the generation X and baby boomers generation. Maybe u r talking about the shoe box size development such as the studio/soho/sovo types of property which more likely attract Gen Y due to its affordability. These category of property would be oversupply.
cheahcw2003
post Jan 26 2014, 08:16 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 07:59 AM)
Property market is not something new. Ever wonder why older people (e.g. gen x) and have more resources are not overwhelming in current property market frenzy?
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Older generation, in general, are more experienced and risk adverse, they know what they want to suit their risk portfolio. Less emotional when making investment decision, less relying on hear say but invest with wisdom.
I can't say it for all, but at least my investment kaki around my age.

This post has been edited by cheahcw2003: Jan 26 2014, 08:37 AM
cheahcw2003
post Jan 26 2014, 08:18 AM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 26 2014, 08:10 AM)
Yes, go for gated and guarded freehold landed. It is a very resilient investment  nod.gif
*
Judging the current security condition, gng landed is the way to go.
cheahcw2003
post Jan 26 2014, 08:29 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 26 2014, 06:39 AM)
Boss think of the brighter side. Rental income is not mentioned in ur assumption le.  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
He doesn't factor in the current value and future value of money. In long term investment, one must factor in the time value of money (discounted cash flow method) to analyze investment as a dollar today is not the same value after 10 years. U need to discount back your loan amount after 10 years into today's value to analyze it.

Assuming the average mortgage loan interest is 5% pa for the next 10 years (Currently 4.2% with blr-2.4%), u r better off with the borrowing if the yearly inflation rate is > borrowing rate.

In the long term, those who keep FD in the bank will loose out for those who invest with better return. We need to at least beat the inflation rate.
Showtime747
post Jan 26 2014, 08:51 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 07:59 AM)
It is common for people to apply loan from a few banks simultaneously, after received offers from a few banks supposedly for one unit, as few banks check ccris again after loan approval, it is not unknown for flippers to accept all offer and bought multiple units. Further, many flippers paid deposit by cc installment i.e. zero cash investment. If this does not constitute sub-prime, what is?

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Bro, you may be out of touch with loan processing. It is very tightly control in CCRIS

1. Loan application is property specific. That means if they approve your loan, it is for that particular property. If there are 5 banks approve for 1 property, you can choose only 1 bank. Other offer will lapse

2. You cannot take the other 4 offers to buy other properties

3. For CCRIS, once you apply for loan (note : in progress, not approved yet), your applications will all be shown. Each and every application from different banks will be shown. You can't get away with it. So if you buy 3 properties at the same time, banks will know you are trying to fool them

4. How much CC credit does a flipper have ? RM20k ? RM30k ? Flippers buy not because they use CC. They can afford because of zero-entry. They don't need to touch their CC

Can't deny there are some flippers who are too aggressive and may escape the net set by BNM. But overall, the banking system in malaysia is far from sub-prime system. The only way to see an equivalent magnitude of sub-prime crisis in malaysia if to have an economic crisis where many middle income face unemployment and default the loans

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Jan 26 2014, 08:53 AM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 26 2014, 09:29 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 07:59 AM)
Kangkong mentality mean for kangkong income and not geared for steak, shashimi income.
Due to inflation, absolute price is increased over the year. However, buying property incurs interest payment and should be included for valuation.
Unlike stock or commodity, property is illiquid. As foreclosures take 12 to 24 months, hence, please be patient and crunch time will come after vp of many dibs developments.
It is common for people to apply loan from a few banks simultaneously, after received offers from a few banks supposedly for one unit, as few banks check ccris again after loan approval, it is not unknown for flippers to accept all offer and bought multiple units. Further, many flippers paid deposit by cc installment i.e. zero cash investment. If this does not constitute sub-prime, what is?
Property market is not something new. Ever wonder why older people (e.g. gen x) and have more resources are not overwhelming in current property market frenzy?
Property in Malaysia is priced in RM, how to hedge against RM depreciation?  rclxub.gif
*
Better study subprime deeply before comment
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 26 2014, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Jan 26 2014, 08:29 AM)
He doesn't factor in the current value and future value of money. In long term investment, one must factor in the time value of money (discounted cash flow method) to analyze investment as a dollar today is not the same value after 10 years. U need to discount back your loan amount after 10 years into today's value to analyze it.

Assuming the average mortgage loan interest is 5% pa for the next 10 years (Currently 4.2% with blr-2.4%), u r better off with the borrowing if the yearly inflation rate is > borrowing rate.

In the long term, those who keep FD in the bank will loose out for those who invest with better return.  We need to at least beat the inflation rate.
*
+1
CK15
post Jan 26 2014, 09:34 AM

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QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Jan 26 2014, 08:29 AM)
He doesn't factor in the current value and future value of money. In long term investment, one must factor in the time value of money (discounted cash flow method) to analyze investment as a dollar today is not the same value after 10 years. U need to discount back your loan amount after 10 years into today's value to analyze it.

Assuming the average mortgage loan interest is 5% pa for the next 10 years (Currently 4.2% with blr-2.4%), u r better off with the borrowing if the yearly inflation rate is > borrowing rate.

In the long term, those who keep FD in the bank will loose out for those who invest with better return.  We need to at least beat the inflation rate.
*
Walau, buying property has to think so much... if this skill is compulsory for property investment to sucess then those less educated anke/anti will hv prob loh... but yet they r silent majority who making fortune by just buy and keep .. tongue.gif tongue.gif

twincharger07
post Jan 26 2014, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Jan 26 2014, 09:34 AM)
Walau, buying property has to think so much... if this skill is compulsory for property investment to sucess then those less educated anke/anti will hv prob loh... but yet they r silent majority who making fortune by just buy and keep ..    tongue.gif   tongue.gif
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auntie uncle no matter how uneducated also know to buy, rent out and keep.. or buy in cash and keep..
my uneducated grandpa who never been to school also know about buying land with cash and keep, buying shoplot with loan and rent out..

i dunno y the current gen y mentality is poorer than uneducated auntie uncle.. they tot uncle auntie buy with loan, keep without renting and sell with negative profit.. doh.gif

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 26 2014, 10:55 AM

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