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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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twincharger07
post Jan 14 2014, 10:12 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 14 2014, 09:06 PM)
2 mega projects in KV wor.. eco hill & our friendly neighbourhood southville wor.. DSL.. bungloe.. srmi bunglow.. township wor.. DSL selling 430k... flipping to 750k.. so .. u going to buy outskirt KL ? 750K DSL?.. flipping oso wont 750k flipp to how much... 1 million ah..
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2 only ah? hehehe... u r my sifu..

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 14 2014, 10:14 PM
twincharger07
post Jan 14 2014, 11:25 PM

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QUOTE(aberdeen @ Jan 14 2014, 11:20 PM)
Property investors please choose your T-shirt
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voted.. "No comment, real estate is not my thing" <- only for this year..
sit back and try to get kungfu absorb from tkttt.. biggrin.gif
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This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 14 2014, 11:31 PM
twincharger07
post Jan 16 2014, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 16 2014, 08:36 PM)
understood... if the 90% still have balls to buy, there won't be crash la...
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wah... new enlightenment... so meaning that those say wanna buy when it crash "man man dang la"... rclxms.gif
twincharger07
post Jan 16 2014, 10:06 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 16 2014, 09:38 PM)
Can also mean 90% will Chickened out don't dare to die die also hold, they would throw their current holding in Fire Sales....wakakaka

It happened in the mid 80s & again late 90s, so expect it to happened again.

U think top 10% richest will come here & waste their time to post rubbish ? from those comments I bet he is nothing but empty talker like Aberdeen...lol

Since only 1 million Malaysians is paying income tax, 1/29 which is about 3.5%, hey hey hey I am among the top 3% ...rofl
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u top 10% come here waste time lo.. hehehe brows.gif
twincharger07
post Jan 18 2014, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(AllnGap @ Jan 18 2014, 10:21 AM)
All these speculation is fueled by low interest loans coming from china, us, singapore n others.

Our blr rates are tagged together with us federal reserve central banks.

So if federal reserve taper n increase interest rates, I will see how many people can sustain loan payments.

Another factor is our last economy will be slowing down a lot due to these factors, inflation,  depreciation of ringgit, slow international markets, HIGH national debt and personal debts, rising cost of living.

We are heading for an economy crisis in my opinion.
All these growth comes from bank loan n u need to pay them. House price has doubled in less than 6 years.

A lot of big players already keeping cash
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does BN have control over sg bank brows.gif

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 18 2014, 11:17 AM
twincharger07
post Jan 18 2014, 05:20 PM

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QUOTE(AllnGap @ Jan 18 2014, 03:01 PM)
no ah. but all central bank follow US one.....
all this is caused by central bank

to sum it up,

good growth = ( low interest rates ) x ( monetary supply )

when BNM increased the minimum downpayment for house, they are tightening, or decreasing money supply.
reduce credit card limit is also a form of tightening


how many months of saving they have kept for bad months ?
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imho.. looking pass trending, its not a systemic trending.. sg rate has been for very long time, but msia blr n opr is raising to almost pre-subprime era.. although US has influence on global economy, but each country is still putting measure base on respective policy.. china interest rate has been pretty high all this while..

foreign banks (as in apply loan from their countries) are not controlled by BN.. 70% LTV is not applied.. Nett pricing not applied.. 70% DSR not applied.. Nett pricing not applied.. raising opr n blr not controlled by BN..

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 18 2014, 05:28 PM
twincharger07
post Jan 18 2014, 09:50 PM

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QUOTE(lamode @ Jan 18 2014, 09:38 PM)
help me to understand better.

so you are DDD or BBB group?
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neutral... just telling observation...
twincharger07
post Jan 19 2014, 05:19 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 19 2014, 05:04 PM)
No

it will all go down the drain.. bubble going bigger bigger and bigger.. for investment.. it going to be outright non sales as too high... and many cash already locked beneath... now developer launch already 640k new cheras condo.. there is really no room for investment..

"The end draws near", happy buying and investing
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if there is no room for investment, harder to get loan, speculator stay away and let genuine own use buyers to buy for own staying..

so lesser speculation activity, bubble contained.. not good meh.. brows.gif
twincharger07
post Jan 19 2014, 09:53 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 19 2014, 09:42 PM)
But BBB group see cheras project only they will die die die must buy buy.. so they dun believe in bubble
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what is the sales performance in cheras that makes you think BBB?
twincharger07
post Jan 19 2014, 10:52 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 19 2014, 10:01 PM)
Actually my crystal ball... cheras prop anyting left in new launch based on your previous experirnce? Sold but vacant a lot lor.. like connought avenue.. amanya maluri.. pertama residency.. and etc

u see ecovest cheras only left big units and of course expensive lu.. even d MARK .. LIDO ..you city& vista complete sapu.. VYNA.. c100 cheras selatan.. silk residenc3
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If everything base on "Crystal ball", in chinese we say "you say everything liao".. because it is baseless brows.gif

Those project you mention are completed or sold before the cooling measure starts.. thus behavior could be different with new cooling measure take place.. sales of certain area starts to cool down..

If the cooling measure manage to control the speculation activity, primary market can be cool down abit and avoiding catastrophic collapse.. possible of primary market stagnation, minor correction on pricing, until demand filling up the supply and the market starts to kick off again.. (if the cooling measures works).. In other words, maybe property price will not go down as much as 50% which some ppl are hoping for, and they continue to wait.. smile.gif

As long as ppl manage to repay, they wont get default.. bank will try to assist as much as possible to avoid defaulters.. Auctioning the houses below market value and recover the debt.. engaging AKPK to renegotiate loan agreement.. this kind of auctioning and defaulting happen all the time but just a matter of systemic or non-systemic. If things doesnt happen in systemic behavior, we might just experience property market segment slow down and minor correction which is not a bad thing and able to avoid the bubble bursting..

When primary market slowdown, good news for secondary market especially those who bought 2 to 3 years ago with 300psft to 400psft pricing.. because to the market now, 400psft to 500psft consider market price of below market price.. smile.gif

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 19 2014, 10:55 PM
twincharger07
post Jan 19 2014, 11:04 PM

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We discuss a lot on the micro level, lets hear what Dato Sri Gavin has to say on a macro level..

(Its a Taiwan Program)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqZZZIAipuk


Sorry its only in Mandarin.. My stand is neutral, I am just sharing.. some one say sharing is caring.. (but I dont spam) nod.gif

Although this video was last year before the cooling measure, but some points are worth to note..
Whether you agree with him and another lady or not is base on your own opinion and understanding on the property market..

will it be a case where some group of ppl continuously waiting for prop crash to buy cheap prop but waiting forever and end up paying even more because they wait too long?

Cheers.. smile.gif

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 19 2014, 11:07 PM
twincharger07
post Jan 19 2014, 11:35 PM

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QUOTE(zephyrus9999 @ Jan 19 2014, 11:21 PM)
The cooling measures are in fact preventing bubbling and bursting, not a sign for bursting.
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+1 .. some ppl think that the cooling measure is the cause of bubble burst.. shakehead.gif
twincharger07
post Jan 22 2014, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 22 2014, 10:28 PM)
Not locked down.. just waiting for the perfect storm but inflated ones.. really not worth.. but then again
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wait until tongkat day and then the storm came.. after 50 years of inflation, wonder u still cen get it lower than today's price.. hmm.gif
twincharger07
post Jan 23 2014, 12:05 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 22 2014, 11:36 PM)
At high inflation rate, disposable income is reduced, property price may not necessary rise inline with inflation rate. However, prolonged high inflation rate will ended up in recession and property price is almost certain will fall in recession.

Historically over a period of 50 years, there will be periods when real property price is relatively cheap.
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historically after few financial crisis in msia, our house got cheaper than 50yrs ago during our ahgong ahma period or not? they bought houses few thousand only leh.. hmm.gif
twincharger07
post Jan 25 2014, 12:45 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 25 2014, 12:36 PM)
DIBS simply skews the demand of the market and creates some froth.  Its removal around Q4 2013 by banks coincided with the Budget 2014 announcement, hence it is reasonable for the market to stabilise for one to two quarters.  It is a good thing that it is removed.

Q1 2014 is a good time to get a property if you are buying for own stay.  After Chinese New Year is usually when buyers return to the market.  If the market is not doing well, most developers will simply delay launches to reduce supply.  The reduction in supply has been the case since Q4 2013 to-date.

Malaysia's working population is quite young and increasing, and projected 2014 GDP will be better than 2013, so it is a matter of time (I think around Q2 2014) when demand catches up again.
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Yea.. by limiting it, let the supply suck in by the demand before bull running again.. Anyway the amount of subsale still domanate than primary market.. As there are still ppl hunting for houses every year, and with limited new launches, not bad news for current subsale sellers... ratio of transaction will be more on 2ndary market this year I guess..
twincharger07
post Jan 25 2014, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 25 2014, 01:42 PM)
Subdales better than developer sell meh.. I recall all developers project vonfirm sapu bersih.. subsales in older prop maybe.. those upon VP I doubt.. want me to quoto example..
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I SAY.. IN PROPERTY TRANSACTION RATIO, SUBSALE TRANSACTION ALWAYS HIGHER THAN PRIMARY.. THIS YEAE WE MIGHT SEE THE RATIO ON SUBSALE TRANSACTION COULD FURTHER INCREASE.. DONT SKEW MY WORDS .. READ MORE NEWS PAPER, STATISTICS AND UPDATE URSELF.
twincharger07
post Jan 25 2014, 03:17 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 25 2014, 02:47 PM)
This can only happen if the subdale price are affordable mr agent... subsales in general are  targeted at those new prop... those old prop price also not cheap right.. uwill not buy..

On reading no need you worry.. I can safely assume I read more and highly educated.. the last I check u say singaporean buyers are rich buying prop no problem.. dun fool ppl here agent... u just cant.. rich ppl dun bothet replying here ciz they busy counting cash..
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its always pointless to discuss with you as you always get very personal by giving ppl names, depicting education level, and skewing ppl's words making up assumptions and launch personal attack.. if you want honest discussion, better start to learn respecting others..

on your second post.. i have enough of getting profit since i started venture in prop investment even before subprime started and last purchase was few years ago and already harvested now after the bull run last few yrs.. resting this yr, mayb start enjoying life..

happy property hunting for you..

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 25 2014, 03:19 PM
twincharger07
post Jan 26 2014, 02:32 AM

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QUOTE(lamode @ Jan 25 2014, 05:53 PM)
twincharger07

saw ur avatar and i got a question in mind.

If or when the bubble happens, would you change it to a bubble tea?  laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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just chill with cappuccino and watch the show.. cool2.gif
bubble tea like kids drink..
twincharger07
post Jan 26 2014, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Jan 26 2014, 09:34 AM)
Walau, buying property has to think so much... if this skill is compulsory for property investment to sucess then those less educated anke/anti will hv prob loh... but yet they r silent majority who making fortune by just buy and keep ..    tongue.gif   tongue.gif
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auntie uncle no matter how uneducated also know to buy, rent out and keep.. or buy in cash and keep..
my uneducated grandpa who never been to school also know about buying land with cash and keep, buying shoplot with loan and rent out..

i dunno y the current gen y mentality is poorer than uneducated auntie uncle.. they tot uncle auntie buy with loan, keep without renting and sell with negative profit.. doh.gif

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 26 2014, 10:55 AM
twincharger07
post Jan 26 2014, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 11:02 AM)
How many banks recheck ccris after loan approval or before disbursement? Know people have done it.

Over stretched and borderline flippers are subprime quality, they are system risks and will have impact on overall market.
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mayb u really need to understand what subprime means...

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