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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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cooleq
post Jan 26 2014, 12:10 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 11:57 AM)
Which study and research is better than from the horse's mouth?
The root of subprime crisis was indiscriminate credit extended to otherwise disqualified borrowers. Credit risks of over stretched flippers is indifference.
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Study and research can be gain through experience..have you apply loan nowadays and tell me which stupid banker not check your credit history in CCRIS before approve your loan. doh.gif
twincharger07
post Jan 26 2014, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 11:57 AM)
Which study and research is better than from the horse's mouth?
The root of subprime crisis was indiscriminate credit extended to otherwise disqualified borrowers. Credit risks of over stretched flippers is indifference.
*
subprime mortgages are mortgages that are extended to borrowers who already known for poor repayment pattern, not qualify from mainstream..

in US, they are lending to borrowers who already has existing poor credit rating, poor repayment record.. the risk is even higher.. G.Bush once said, how to own a house when bank dont even lend to this ppl, there is when TDH start borrowing from Freddie Mac and Finnie May which both are non-mainstream lenders..

in bolehland, they really vet through all the credit rating, ensuring even credit card repayment pattern.. if you already have existing poor record, full stop.. Over here at least 1st screening is done... chances of npl is way lesser than how the US did..

there is a difference between over stretch and poor credit record (no able to repay).. as long as you can still repay, you still not get default.. there is a clear definition what SUBPRIME means.. not apa apa pun subprime..

i am still pretty much engaging with bankers from different banks.. since the 70% LTV enforcement, approval rate has been reduced alot and with the current cooling measure.. We manage to pull the plug before it collapse (hopefully).. US and Euro Zone is on a whole different level on lending terms..

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 26 2014, 12:16 PM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 26 2014, 12:15 PM

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It is much easier to make a decision (to buy) during bullish mkt than mkt downturn

Recently met a banker purchaser looking for own stay (bout 40++), I show him -
1) Property A - 950K (launching price 2011), now 1.60 mil
Banker likes but says "Over inflated price, why shd I pay so much for the seller to earn, no rooms for appreciation"

2) Property B - 910K -1.15 m (launching price 2010), now 1.03 mil - 1.15 mil
Banker likes but says "why the price so slow, seems cannot appreciate one, why the owner want to sell this price??"
I answer "If you feel 1.03 mil is too low, I can always quote you 1.3 mil to make you feel better"

I ask why not buy fr developer, he says "I like finished product especially new VP house, can check the quality"

When one decides not to buy, he always has excuses, real case for sharing

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 26 2014, 01:26 PM
icemanfx
post Jan 26 2014, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(cooleq @ Jan 26 2014, 12:10 PM)
Study and research can be gain through experience..have you apply loan nowadays and tell me which stupid banker not check your credit history in CCRIS before approve your loan. doh.gif
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Your answer is in my previous posts.
twincharger07
post Jan 26 2014, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 26 2014, 12:15 PM)
It is much easier to make a decision (to buy) during bullish mkt than mkt downturn

Recently met a banker purchaser looking for own stay (bout 40++), I show him -
1) Property A - 950K (launching price 2011), now 1.60 mil
Banker likes but says "Over inflated price, why shd I pay so much for the seller to earn, no rooms for appreciation"

2) Property B - 910K -1.15 m (launching price 2010), now 1.03 mil - 1.15 mil
Banker likes but says "why the price so slow, seems cannot appreciate one, why the owner want to sell this price??"
I answer "If you feel 1.03 mil is too low, I can always quote you 1.3 mil to make you feel better"

I ask why not buy fr developer, he says "I like finished product especially new VP house, can check the quality"

When one decides not to buy, he always hv excuses, real case for sharing
*
true.. there is always market for secondary houses which dominates the overall housing transaction..
what ppl say about only buying from primary market is not true.. as far as for residential market, only 20% of housing transaction is from primary market, 80% are actually subsales..
cheahcw2003
post Jan 26 2014, 12:25 PM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Jan 26 2014, 09:34 AM)
Walau, buying property has to think so much... if this skill is compulsory for property investment to sucess then those less educated anke/anti will hv prob loh... but yet they r silent majority who making fortune by just buy and keep ..    tongue.gif  tongue.gif
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Investors of each generation have their own set of calculator. Like others have shared, the baby boomers like uncle aunties' strategy are buy and never sell. Know few uncles accumulate palm oil lands for the last 30 years, and they will never sell. These uncles never study bubbles bursting, stocks candle lights report, inflation and unemployment statistics. But they are doing good!!

Another uncle of mine only buy shoplots and rented to banks, telcos and insurance companies. These are prompt paymasters. Use the tenancy agreements income prove to rolled over and buy more shoplots units.
icemanfx
post Jan 26 2014, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(twincharger07 @ Jan 26 2014, 12:12 PM)
subprime mortgages are mortgages that are extended to borrowers who already known for poor repayment pattern, not qualify from mainstream..

in US, they are lending to borrowers who already has existing poor credit rating, poor repayment record.. the risk is even higher.. G.Bush once said, how to own a house when bank dont even lend to this ppl, there is when TDH start borrowing from Freddie Mac and Finnie May which both are non-mainstream lenders..

in bolehland, they really vet through all the credit rating, ensuring even credit card repayment pattern.. if you already have existing poor record, full stop..  Over here at least 1st screening is done... chances of npl is way lesser than how the US did..

there is a difference between over stretch and poor credit record (no able to repay).. as long as you can still repay, you still not get default.. there is a clear definition what SUBPRIME means.. not apa apa pun subprime..

i am still pretty much engaging with bankers from different banks.. since the 70% LTV enforcement, approval rate has been reduced alot and with the current cooling measure.. We manage to pull the plug before it collapse (hopefully).. US and Euro Zone is on a whole different level on lending terms..
*
Before bnm stringent requirements, how many flippers secured loan otherwise they would not qualified now? How do you classify these loan?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 26 2014, 12:33 PM
CK15
post Jan 26 2014, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 26 2014, 12:15 PM)
It is much easier to make a decision (to buy) during bullish mkt than mkt downturn

Recently met a banker purchaser looking for own stay (bout 40++), I show him -
1) Property A - 950K (launching price 2011), now 1.60 mil
Banker likes but says "Over inflated price, why shd I pay so much for the seller to earn, no rooms for appreciation"

2) Property B - 910K -1.15 m (launching price 2010), now 1.03 mil - 1.15 mil
Banker likes but says "why the price so slow, seems cannot appreciate one, why the owner want to sell this price??"
I answer "If you feel 1.03 mil is too low, I can always quote you 1.3 mil to make you feel better"

I ask why not buy fr developer, he says "I like finished product especially new VP house, can check the quality"

When one decides not to buy, he always hv excuses, real case for sharing
*
This is not an isolate case.
I kno a biz man who living in DSL, and suggest him to upgrade to SMD/Bungalow 3-4 yrs ago. No action done due to above reason.... biggrin.gif
Even tdy, I try to pass some gd kangtaw to him, but still tak jadi2... tongue.gif

Discl: I'm not agent.
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 12:48 PM

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QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Jan 26 2014, 12:25 PM)
Investors of each generation have their own set of calculator. Like others have shared, the baby boomers like uncle aunties' strategy are buy and never sell. Know few uncles accumulate palm oil lands for the last 30 years, and they will never sell. These uncles never study bubbles bursting, stocks candle lights report, inflation and unemployment statistics. But they are doing good!!

Another uncle of mine only buy shoplots and rented to banks, telcos and insurance companies. These are prompt paymasters. Use the tenancy agreements income prove to rolled over and buy more shoplots units.
*
In this climate.. u suggest to invest on any new launches? Attitude is new launch grab first talk and think later.. I dun think it is applicable anymore...

The many of ur uncle kind is very less in the market.. which reminds me of agents who like to tell half truth of the statement like MLM.. lets take AMWAY..
Lapsap will say look at our this guy.. he is our top sell.. no need work liao.. 300k income.. per month.. they fail to say that THERE IS ONLY 1 SPOT.. and those WHO FAIL AND DIE IN VAIN..

just like if I tell you you need 30 mimutes and 45 minutes leisure drive to KL.. so near.. then the balloting.. all hired and make it looks like GOT MONEY OSO CANT BUY... failed to take into acvount that IT TOOK 2 HOURS AT LEAST on peak hour traffic.. there u go again many just went on registration time already buy... developer laugh till die.. based on these prop bought.. u want to target with ur inflated price.. on the dudes of lower or worse bargining power than you..

quoting ur uncle example just telling ppl the partial truth..

just like forumers here... they choose only reply what istelling price up.. the should reply point keep diam diam.. then ask ppl to study more.. reasearch more..all all are agents flippers here with low holding power..

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 26 2014, 12:51 PM
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 12:53 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 26 2014, 11:56 AM)
Boss isn't tat the correct way to calculate??? I dun wanna let those marney sacking analysts to decide direction of my investment. I still use the evergreen but obsolete way. Cocr, interest, rental, tax. Simple and nice. But I'm not sure wat r they looking for. Maybe the palace with rumah papan price. brows.gif
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Or maybe some affordable housing.. ur hardcore DDD BBB wont stop .. ss2 there big new development go.. buy..
gspirit01
post Jan 26 2014, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Jan 26 2014, 12:25 PM)
Investors of each generation have their own set of calculator. Like others have shared, the baby boomers like uncle aunties' strategy are buy and never sell. Know few uncles accumulate palm oil lands for the last 30 years, and they will never sell. These uncles never study bubbles bursting, stocks candle lights report, inflation and unemployment statistics. But they are doing good!!

Another uncle of mine only buy shoplots and rented to banks, telcos and insurance companies. These are prompt paymasters. Use the tenancy agreements income prove to rolled over and buy more shoplots units.
*
Has anybody thought why banks, telcos and insurance companies never bought shoplots themselves, if property is such a fantastic investment ? I guess whether they either thought property is a lousy investment or they can get better return with their money.
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 01:00 PM

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QUOTE(cooleq @ Jan 26 2014, 12:10 PM)
Study and research can be gain through experience..have you apply loan nowadays and tell me which stupid banker not check your credit history in CCRIS before approve your loan. doh.gif
*
That is d front door or back door... back door many case the loan officer let you go just like dat?? Bolehland wor...

each bank has own policy.. bigget banks stringent.. those smaller banks.. less lor have to survive.. bad CCRIS but if you agree to pay intetest rates higher than mai can lorr.. some bank previously offer 45 years..
Bank also know bout inflation.. dont loan out they will lose out

Since when malaysian are that stringent .. u mean in a way like all getting A's in UPSR SPM every year naik??
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 01:01 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 26 2014, 12:56 PM)
Has anybody thought why banks, telcos and insurance companies never bought shoplots themselves, if property is such a fantastic investment ? I guess whether they either thought property is a lousy investment or they can get better return with their money.
*
Coz agents and flippers are smarter... coz bank will move I guess.. or they calculated that is a loss
gspirit01
post Jan 26 2014, 01:04 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 26 2014, 01:01 PM)
Coz agents and flippers are smarter... coz bank will move I guess..  or they calculated that is a loss
*
If banks bought and stay minimum for 5 years and property has indeed gone up like many said, it is still profitable to them. Furthermore, banks themselves are the reason why many locations became prime.
hondaracer
post Jan 26 2014, 01:13 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 26 2014, 12:15 PM)
It is much easier to make a decision (to buy) during bullish mkt than mkt downturn

Recently met a banker purchaser looking for own stay (bout 40++), I show him -
1) Property A - 950K (launching price 2011), now 1.60 mil
Banker likes but says "Over inflated price, why shd I pay so much for the seller to earn, no rooms for appreciation"

2) Property B - 910K -1.15 m (launching price 2010), now 1.03 mil - 1.15 mil
Banker likes but says "why the price so slow, seems cannot appreciate one, why the owner want to sell this price??"
I answer "If you feel 1.03 mil is too low, I can always quote you 1.3 mil to make you feel better"

I ask why not buy fr developer, he says "I like finished product especially new VP house, can check the quality"

When one decides not to buy, he always hv excuses, real case for sharing
*
Good one. 😄😄😄😎😎😎🎲🎲🎲

cheahcw2003
post Jan 26 2014, 01:14 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 26 2014, 12:56 PM)
Has anybody thought why banks, telcos and insurance companies never bought shoplots themselves, if property is such a fantastic investment ? I guess whether they either thought property is a lousy investment or they can get better return with their money.
*
Banks/insurance companies do not owns all the branches, maybe only HQ and some key branches. Probably they know what is their core business.
Banks/ insurance companies operate within strict guideline imposed by bnm, buying property is considered asset acquisition + capital expenditure. Need shareholders approval.

This post has been edited by cheahcw2003: Jan 26 2014, 01:20 PM
gspirit01
post Jan 26 2014, 01:27 PM

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QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Jan 26 2014, 01:14 PM)
Banks/insurance companies do not owns all the branches, maybe only HQ and some key branches. Probably they know what is their core business.
*
Agreed.

There are few facts can be drawn from your reply:

1. Core business may make more money. E.g. giving out loans.
2. Property investment is not risk free, or maybe high risks.
3. Property investment is not for everyone.

If giving out loans to investors for property can make bank more money, the chance of normal property investors to make money is greatly reduced.

If bankers who are semi-involved in property market are not 100% confident in making money in property, what is the chance of engineers, sales, uncle/unties, etc ? There are savvy investors who make money in all investments. However, those so called "investors" in property now are nowhere near savvy. They just saw a previously successful money making formula! Savvy property investors that I know of are not making any purchase for the last couple of years. In fact, they are selling now.
twincharger07
post Jan 26 2014, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 12:27 PM)
Before bnm stringent requirements, how many flippers secured loan otherwise they would not qualified now? How do you classify these loan?
*
IMHO, there is a difference between how much you can loan and how well you can repay..

What bank and government had done last few years is limiting the amont of borrowing to reduce speculation and keeping the property market at a healthier level, ensure the general public still can afford houses

However, what has never changed is how bank evaluate your repayment behaviour.. Limiting the amount of loan is a precaution measure..

There is a cost being a subprime borrower.. If you are labeled as subprime borrower, you are usually charged with higher interest rate and getting these loan from subprime lenders and not prime lender..

you mayb subprimer after getting loan from prime lender due to difficulty in repaying, loss of income.. but you definately wont get prime loan when you are labeled as subprimer from the beginning..

What so catastrophic in US is that they even start giving loan to subprimer even they already know they are subprimer at the beginning.. they are the jialat among the jialat...

so, you really need to understand how US subprime mortgage work and how they label subprimers.. how lending to subprimers collapsing the financial and housing industry.. are we the same..

We may have borrowers turning into subprimers but they definitely wont be able to get more loans once they screw up their credit profile.. US has been lending to subprimers for many years and even increase the number of subprime lending after the dotcom bust..

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 26 2014, 02:11 PM
CK15
post Jan 26 2014, 02:00 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 26 2014, 12:48 PM)
In this climate.. u suggest to invest on any new launches? Attitude is new launch grab first talk and think later.. I dun think it is applicable anymore...

quoting ur uncle example just telling ppl the partial truth..

*
he is complementing on ur -ve partial truth story to provide balance on it. So, furumers here can hv better picture of both +ve and -ve stories, and more choise of property to invest.. biggrin.gif


icemanfx
post Jan 26 2014, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(twincharger07 @ Jan 26 2014, 01:47 PM)
IMHO, there is a difference between how much you can loan and how well you can repay..

What bank and government had done last few years is limiting the amont of borrowing to reduce speculation and keeping the property market at a healthier level, ensure the general public still can afford houses

However, what has never changed is how bank evaluate your repayment behaviour.. Limiting the amount of loan is a precaution measure..

There is a cost being a subprime borrower.. If you are labeled as subprime borrower, you are usually charged with higher interest rate and getting these loan from subprime lenders and not prime lender..

you mayb subprimer after getting loan from prime lender due to difficulty in repaying, loss of income..  but you definately wont get prime loan when you are labeled as subprimer from the beginning..

What so catastrophic in US is that they even start giving loan to subprimer even they already know they are subprimer at the beginning.. they are the jialat among the jialat...

so, you really need to understand how US subprime mortgage work and how they label subprimers.. how lending to subprimers collapsing the financial and housing industry.. are we the same..

We may have borrowers turning into subprimers but they definitely wont be able to get more loans once they screw up their credit profile.. US has been lending to subprimers for many years and even increase the number of subprime lending after the dotcom bust..
*
Naked truth will be revealed when crunch time come.


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