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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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gspirit01
post Jan 25 2014, 03:25 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 25 2014, 01:43 PM)
Bro, your link is priced at RM729k end lot 2.5 storey. After bidding, don't know how much leh

The house you mentioned price came down to RM653k is another auction which is 2 storey corner. Different house leh

http://www.iproperty.com.my/propertylistin...k-house-forsale
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Sry, I will look carefully again to confirm next time I go there. All the signs were everywhere next to each other. 900, 540, 810, etc. As i m not interested in that one, I tho they r the same one by glancing while driveby.
icemanfx
post Jan 25 2014, 03:36 PM

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QUOTE(cooleq @ Jan 25 2014, 03:14 PM)
For me nothing wrong about flipper either because they buy using their hard earn money and still within the law. I have my friend work in Multinational Company,Oil and Gas a flipper and other also want to be a flipper because they have money and work oversea. They don't have much time to be a land lord because the nature of their work which always busy and work in middle east. For me what's wrong to be a flipper even if property bubble they can still survive because they have a lot of cash..
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Flippers activity doesn't add value to aggregate economy except for developers to take advantage to price new launch higher than higher, depriving more people affordable house for their own stay or over stretched their liability.

After completion, residential properties don't add value or productivity to the aggregate economy, any additional loan repayment reduce corresponding disposable income of the house owner, the country and most people except banks will be worst off. Hence, after residential property boom, economic hardship is almost inevitable.

When crunch time come, flippers can lose all they want or go bankrupt and few if any will offer sympathy. However, their greedy action will caused more house ownerships in trouble and aggregate economy to suffer.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 25 2014, 03:58 PM
plumberly
post Jan 25 2014, 03:51 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 25 2014, 03:36 PM)
Flippers activity doesn't add value to aggregate economy except for developers to take advantage to price new launch higher than higher, depriving more people affordable house for their own stay or over stretched their liability.

After completion, residential properties don't add value or productivity to the aggregate economy, any additional loan repayment reduce corresponding disposable income of the house owner, the country and most people except banks will be worst off. Hence, after residential property boom, economic hardship is almost inevitable.
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Similar line of thought as yours.

In fact, I was saying to myself why doesn't the govt make property flipping illegal! Ya, that is pushing it too far. Everyone has their rights to buy and sell to willing buyers at a profit.

The RPGT is one way to cool down the flipping market.

Cheerio.

P/S Come to think of it, buying and selling drugs is illegal. Then why can't they make flipping illegal? One is health damage and the other one is wealth damage.
Showtime747
post Jan 25 2014, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 25 2014, 03:23 PM)
Can afford provided zero credit card.. viva car loan.. of course can moderate life.. and see these ppl who enter the market with DIBs foundatiion created an artificial demand.. fake demand .. as many does not possess enough ability to buy..

worse is with these foundation they only plan to flip upon VP.. and never had a back up plan.. you agents money depended on sales commision..
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bearbear,
We still don't know 100% whether these people can actually afford the loan. In theory they can lah. Banks vet through them when they give them loan. DSR 50% or 60% is workable. In practical I think they also can, PROVIDED they always have jobs. So, all depends on the economy lah. If economy still ok, they hang on to their jobs, they can service the loan installment. If economy down, they lose jobs, then all hell break loose

And when they hold the property longer, as to how much they can earn when they flip, it is another story. They may even make losses if they hold long long time as calculated by gspirit01


Showtime747
post Jan 25 2014, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 25 2014, 03:25 PM)
Sry, I will look carefully again to confirm next time I go there. All the signs were everywhere next to each other.  900, 540, 810, etc. As i m not interested in that one, I tho they r the same one by glancing while driveby.
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Got kang tow remember to inform me thumbup.gif
CK15
post Jan 25 2014, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 25 2014, 03:36 PM)
Flippers activity doesn't add value to aggregate economy except for developers to take advantage to price new launch higher than higher, depriving more people affordable house for their own stay or over stretched their liability.

After completion, residential properties don't add value or productivity to the aggregate economy, any additional loan repayment reduce corresponding disposable income of the house owner, the country and most people except banks will be worst off. Hence, after residential property boom, economic hardship is almost inevitable.
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in free market, as long as within the law, anyone can do wht he/she likes based on his/her risk appe and financial capability... for indiv flipper, not likely 4 them to push up the price... but the hidden hands who can buy en-blocksss will...
CK15
post Jan 25 2014, 04:03 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 25 2014, 03:56 PM)
bearbear,
We still don't know 100% whether these people can actually afford the loan. In theory they can lah. Banks vet through them when they give them loan. DSR 50% or 60% is workable. In practical I think they also can, PROVIDED they always have jobs. So, all depends on the economy lah. If economy still ok, they hang on to their jobs, they can service the loan installment. If economy down, they lose jobs, then all hell break loose

And when they hold the property longer, as to how much they can earn when they flip, it is another story. They may even make losses if they hold long long time as calculated by gspirit01
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... don't undermind.. some may hv strong gold/silver hill/mountain bcked! brows.gif

icemanfx
post Jan 25 2014, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Jan 25 2014, 03:59 PM)
in free market, as long as within the law, anyone can do wht he/she likes based on his/her risk appe and financial capability... for indiv flipper, not likely 4 them to push up the price... but the hidden hands who can buy en-blocksss will...
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Profit without value add to aggregate economy and harmful to general society shall not be encouraged and should be curtailed in free market like illicit drugs.


CK15
post Jan 25 2014, 04:30 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 25 2014, 04:12 PM)
Profit without value add to aggregate economy and harmful to general society shall not be encouraged and should be curtailed in free market like illicit drugs.
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don't get me wrong, i never encourage flipping and say it is morally/ecthically right. It is someone foresight and risk taking decision, they may be rewarded or penalized. If the same principle apply, 4 ekors shld banned immd! tongue.gif


cooleq
post Jan 25 2014, 05:40 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 25 2014, 03:36 PM)
Flippers activity doesn't add value to aggregate economy except for developers to take advantage to price new launch higher than higher, depriving more people affordable house for their own stay or over stretched their liability.

After completion, residential properties don't add value or productivity to the aggregate economy, any additional loan repayment reduce corresponding disposable income of the house owner, the country and most people except banks will be worst off. Hence, after residential property boom, economic hardship is almost inevitable.

When crunch time come, flippers can lose all they want or go bankrupt and few if any will offer sympathy. However, their greedy action will caused more house ownerships in trouble and aggregate economy to suffer.
*
Flippers activity still contribute to government income through stamp duty and economy and it's legalise by our government. I'm not a flipper but be rational in free market forces anything within the law and playing field is acceptable. But it's the authority to ensure that the activity will not harm the economy by introduce new restriction and rules. Same like share market last time our government ban short selling to curb the share price from crash heavily.
lamode
post Jan 25 2014, 05:53 PM

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twincharger07

saw ur avatar and i got a question in mind.

If or when the bubble happens, would you change it to a bubble tea? laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
Martinis
post Jan 25 2014, 07:04 PM

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of course flippers provide economic function....they provide liquidity...just like investors of ipo or shares provide liquidity...without flippers...developers might take longer time to correct housing shortage which ultimately benefits existing house owners...flippers took away some of these profits

as for the higher price...that was necessary to induce further launching to correct shortage now
kevyeoh
post Jan 25 2014, 07:16 PM

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yes...if you read my post...i say long term, can say 10 years...guarantee up...so if the price is RM750k now....sure can earn but i did not say sure RM1.75mil...

even conservative 6% earn, make it super simple, 10 years get 60%, so probably 1.2mil 10 years later...

but if the price is RM850k after 10 years, my statement also correct what... guarantee up !!!
but of course earn RM100k over 10 years not so worth la...

agree or not that guarantee UP !

QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 25 2014, 11:29 AM)
Dailou u still taugei meii... dailou if what you say really true.. folliwing your tend.. DSL outskirt 750k now originally 450k. 2 years after vp.. means another 8 another 800k increase at least plus yearly increase in house and etc.. 200k..  means ur 750k prop is going to be 1.75m in 10 years time.. in 20 years time... 3.3 million liao.. got logic bo...

the price of 750k is already a future 10 years price.. datis d flipped price.. buyers need to wait another 10 years only can increase.. so many agents around.. dun think out of the box..
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kevyeoh
post Jan 25 2014, 07:19 PM

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you got a point here i never think of....bank definitely will vet through the applicants and only approve those who can really afford...

QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 25 2014, 03:56 PM)
bearbear,
We still don't know 100% whether these people can actually afford the loan. In theory they can lah. Banks vet through them when they give them loan. DSR 50% or 60% is workable. In practical I think they also can, PROVIDED they always have jobs. So, all depends on the economy lah. If economy still ok, they hang on to their jobs, they can service the loan installment. If economy down, they lose jobs, then all hell break loose

And when they hold the property longer, as to how much they can earn when they flip, it is another story. They may even make losses if they hold long long time as calculated by gspirit01
*
icemanfx
post Jan 25 2014, 07:46 PM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Jan 25 2014, 04:30 PM)
don't get me wrong, i never encourage flipping and say it is morally/ecthically right. It is someone foresight and risk taking decision, they may be rewarded or penalized. If the same principle apply, 4 ekors shld banned immd!  tongue.gif
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QUOTE(cooleq @ Jan 25 2014, 05:40 PM)
Flippers activity still contribute to government income through stamp duty and economy and it's legalise by our government. I'm not a flipper but be rational in free market forces anything within the law and playing field is acceptable. But it's the authority to ensure that the activity will not harm the economy by introduce new restriction and rules. Same like share market last time our government ban short selling to curb the share price from crash heavily.
*
QUOTE(Martinis @ Jan 25 2014, 07:04 PM)
of course flippers provide economic function....they provide liquidity...just like investors of ipo or shares provide liquidity...without flippers...developers might take longer time to correct housing shortage which ultimately benefits existing house owners...flippers took away some of these profits

as for the higher price...that was necessary to induce further launching to correct shortage now
*
Demand created by flippers is short term, artificial and unsustainable, new supply created for this demand (by flippers) will end up in surplus when the equilibrium shift, and follow by pice drop to long term equilibrium. Unless the property market defy conventional economic theory.

Hence, gomen should imposed higher rpgt and stamp duty to discourage flipping. Alternatively like in Australia, to exempt from rpgt, seller needs to pour back their entire profit back to next property.

QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 25 2014, 07:19 PM)
you got a point here i never think of....bank definitely will vet through the applicants and only approve those who can really afford...
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Before subprime crisis in 2007, U.S banks did had due diligence done on now defaulters. One may be surprise how much can a flipper borrowed before bnm tightening in 3Q 2013.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 25 2014, 09:04 PM
Showtime747
post Jan 25 2014, 10:01 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 25 2014, 07:46 PM)

Before subprime crisis in 2007, U.S banks did had due diligence done on now defaulters. One may be surprise how much can a flipper borrowed before bnm tightening in 3Q 2013.
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The problem of US sub-prime is the banks literally are lending to "sub-prime" borrowers, and repackage it and market it to other banks at high interest. Google and find out more. It is different from our banks here
icemanfx
post Jan 25 2014, 10:09 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 25 2014, 10:01 PM)
The problem of US sub-prime is the banks literally are lending to "sub-prime" borrowers, and repackage it and market it to other banks at high interest. Google and find out more. It is different from our banks here
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It is not unknown many flippers took advantage of loop hole, instead of supposedly one unit, they bought multiple dibs units with sole intention to flip upon v.p.
Credit risks of these over stretched flippers is indifference to pre-2007 subprime borrowers in the u.s.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 25 2014, 10:56 PM
bearbearwong
post Jan 26 2014, 12:09 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 25 2014, 07:16 PM)
yes...if you read my post...i say long term, can say 10 years...guarantee up...so if the price is RM750k now....sure can earn but i did not say sure RM1.75mil...

even conservative 6% earn, make it super simple, 10 years get 60%, so probably 1.2mil 10 years later...

but if the price is RM850k after 10 years, my statement also correct what... guarantee up !!!
but of course earn RM100k over 10 years not so worth la... 

agree or not that guarantee UP !
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850k after 10 years... sure up lor.. u di pay 420k installment.. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k..

so 650k -420k-75k-25k -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. U STILL OWE THE BANK 30K.. Do you know ? Flipping instantly.. those say long term investment is lying through their teeth..

lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
Means loan 650k -420k-75k-25k-200k= you earn 70k for 10 years.. means a year is 7k... per month is rm583 DSL per month rental.. hardly can get a room even flat sin KL.. u sure.. just to say up..

We have not factored legal fees.. stamp duties.. gosh.. maybe think .. subsales 750k DSL hoping for 200k.. srlling 10 years is sucide.. immediately sales upon VP can..

so those agent tell you sure untung.. let them hold.. 5 years above also die.. even home owners be prudent.. a DSL outskirt cannot reach 950k.. who wanna buy 10 year old prop.. haizz..

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 26 2014, 12:23 AM
Martinis
post Jan 26 2014, 12:28 AM

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Instead of suppressing, government should encourage healthy appreciation of malaysian property market to correct the "cheapness" compared to regionals. Once there are more wealth created, malaysian economy will be bigger as spending power goes up....some goes to investment into capital goods, some consumpton, even more imports to spur the local enonomy growth.
kevyeoh
post Jan 26 2014, 12:32 AM

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yes, i said price guarantee UP, so it's definitely UP UP UP.
BUT, if the price UP not so much, after your calculation example, then it is not worth it, but the price is still UP ...

that is the main point i'm trying to drill in... i've seen example of property price drop after the 97 crisis but eventually it will be UP and more than the purchase price and it's uptrend if consider today's price...

come on...you have to agree with me on this, the price will definitely go up in the long run... 10 years time frame...
smile.gif


QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 26 2014, 12:09 AM)
850k after 10 years... sure up lor.. u di pay 420k installment.. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k..

so 650k -420k-75k-25k -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. U STILL OWE THE BANK 30K.. Do you know ?  Flipping instantly.. those say long term investment is lying through their teeth..

lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
Means loan 650k -420k-75k-25k-200k= you earn 70k for 10 years.. means a year is 7k... per month is rm583 DSL per month rental.. hardly can get a room even flat sin KL..  u sure.. just to say up..

We have not factored legal fees.. stamp duties.. gosh.. maybe think .. subsales 750k DSL hoping for 200k.. srlling 10 years is sucide.. immediately sales upon VP can..

so those agent tell you sure untung.. let them hold.. 5 years above also die.. even home owners be prudent.. a DSL outskirt cannot reach 950k.. who wanna buy 10 year old prop.. haizz..
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