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 V11 - Property Prices Discussion, Intelligent debates only pls

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kidmad
post Jul 11 2013, 12:36 AM

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QUOTE(hazairi @ Jul 11 2013, 12:30 AM)
nope kidmad. I didn't join this thread since 2007. I joined in 2011 i guess..
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I see, hope to see you here when the correction price do happen. By the time the discussion will shift to a different game play.

QUOTE(Iceman74 @ Jul 11 2013, 12:31 AM)
nah...me prefer play hard, work smarter. Afterall, life is short, never know what is around the corner.  laugh.gif
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Well you see that's the difference. Play hard work hard and the philosophy of you only live once is a double edge sword.
barbabas
post Jul 11 2013, 08:58 AM

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The Gov are too kill DIBS too? How soon?

and what's more they are up too? Pretty sneaky eh?

For those who haven't aware yet, importante!

Who will buy SPNB PR1MA PPA1M if there lotsa options.

It's like offering PROTON to the market. How to make PROTON looks competitive? Answer: Funny Act

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

agentdiary
post Jul 11 2013, 09:27 AM

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DIBS is risky. Don't blame blinder by your conspiracy urge.

QUOTE(barbabas @ Jul 11 2013, 08:58 AM)
The Gov are too kill DIBS too? How soon?

and what's more they are up too? Pretty sneaky eh?

For those who haven't aware yet, importante!

Who will buy SPNB PR1MA PPA1M if there lotsa options.

It's like offering PROTON to the market. How to make PROTON looks competitive? Answer: Funny Act

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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ManutdGiggs
post Jul 11 2013, 09:36 AM

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-...07-10-171033059

Gd news or bad news???
CloudAtla$
post Jul 11 2013, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Jul 10 2013, 11:21 PM)
PENNILESS, BROKE are debt free ppl......
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+1 you are right.
CloudAtla$
post Jul 11 2013, 09:51 AM

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QUOTE(Dern @ Jul 10 2013, 11:24 PM)
errmm, everyone here, does building PRIMA houses after election sounds like government's effort to gain more votes ? In fact, it's a risk for the people to see if they want to give vote to the current government in the next election...

he implies he's a clever person in all his replies....hmmmmm, i wonder.
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Dont put too much hope on PRIMA.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jul 11 2013, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(ceveori @ Jul 10 2013, 11:00 PM)
Your perception see it as a "problem in Malaysia" but the reality is that 20% of the population control 80% of the fortune in this world.

Numbers can be deceiving until you look at the big picture.
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Forgot to get back to this.

Yes 20% and 20% is actually a lot. And these 20% if you are talking about in the world, will strive to get the best for which is properties cars and stuff. They maybe the billionaires of these world. Or in the range of at least 0.1b assets.

David Beckham makes 50miilion a year and how many David Beckahms in this world? I mean take the movie stars too. And writers like JK Rowling.
And if they have children, these children will want good properties too. Put in population factor in the mix.

Anyway let us talk about Malaysia. Do not underestimate of how many rich people here in Malaysia. Some of them are just keeping quiet. Look at Mahathir he is worth 40bllion USD and he is keeping quiet about it. That Taib Mahmud? How much he is worth? A lot I believe

Rich people are being created everyday in Malaysia. These graduates from universities, one day they will be very successful and will accumulate huge wealth, like the story of the specialist couple that I put a few posts ago. True story and I m not Bullshitting about that.

And of course there are more poor people being created in Malaysia as well. The poor are created more than the rich are being created. The real true problem in Malaysia about people in Malaysia cannot own any property.

I am just a middle class average joe, and I am still eyeing a landed property in KL if I can. Hope someday I can be as successful as some people in LowYat here and really own a landed property. The car can still wait.

This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jul 11 2013, 10:08 AM
cockee
post Jul 11 2013, 11:46 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 11 2013, 10:06 AM)

And of course there are MORE poor people being created in Malaysia as well. The poor are created MORE than the rich are being created. The real true problem in Malaysia about people in Malaysia cannot own any property.

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You are right. Poor people will always higher in numbers than rich people. And the gap is getting bigger.
The problem is the mismatch of housing price supply compared to affordability.

I'm talking about real affordability, not 'get loan and eat maggi mee' type of affordability.

Let's say in Malaysia we have 20% earning above RM15k, the rest 80% earning RM4k or less. (This is close to the statistic of median household income of RM5k)

At RM4-5k a month, the real affordable monthly mortage is around RM2k per month. (This is also stretching it). At RM2kper month payment, the loan should be around RM400k. So the affordable price should be around RM400k-500k.
If there is no mismatch, 80% of the property should be priced around RM400k-500k.

But look at new launches nowadays.. how many can you find at RM400-500k?
Hmm.. perhaps that's why developers are rushing to come out with pigeon holes at these prices.. because they know this is the 'affordable' price for majority of the people. But the catch is these RM500k new-launches are pigeon holes not suitable for married people with kids. But i digress.

Look at the new launches in the past 2-3 years.. how many are actually above the real affordability?

Sure, those 20% can sapu them. But not everyone in the top 20% are millionaires that have no financial concerns. Most importantly, look at the rental yield nowadays. Do you think those 20% people are so dumb to plough a huge chunk of their money on low-yield investments when they can earn more in other asset classes?

Just my two cents.
agentdiary
post Jul 11 2013, 11:49 AM

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Statistically and GINI rating, Malaysia is on 10% (likely to be lesser as our GINI is one of the highest on par with India/China) control 90%, not 20% control 80% wealth.

QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 11 2013, 10:06 AM)
Forgot to get back to this.

Yes 20% and 20% is actually a lot. And these 20% if you are talking about in the world, will strive to get the best for which is properties cars and stuff. They maybe the billionaires of these world. Or in the range of at least 0.1b assets.
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SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jul 11 2013, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(cockee @ Jul 11 2013, 11:46 AM)
You are right. Poor people will always higher in numbers than rich people. And the gap is getting bigger.
The problem is the mismatch of housing price supply compared to affordability.

I'm talking about real affordability, not 'get loan and eat maggi mee' type of affordability.

Let's say in Malaysia we have 20% earning above RM15k, the rest 80% earning RM4k or less. (This is close to the statistic of median household income of RM5k)

At RM4-5k a month, the real affordable monthly mortage is around RM2k per month. (This is also stretching it). At RM2kper month payment, the loan should be around RM400k. So the affordable price should be around RM400k-500k.
If there is no mismatch, 80% of the property should be priced around RM400k-500k.

But look at new launches nowadays.. how many can you find at RM400-500k?
Hmm.. perhaps that's why developers are rushing to come out with pigeon holes at these prices.. because they know this is the 'affordable' price for majority of the people. But the catch is these RM500k new-launches are pigeon holes not suitable for married people with kids. But i digress.

Look at the new launches in the past 2-3 years.. how many are actually above the real affordability?

Sure, those 20% can sapu them. But not everyone in the top 20% are millionaires that have no financial concerns. Most importantly, look at the rental yield nowadays. Do you think those 20% people are so dumb to plough a huge chunk of their money on low-yield investments when they can earn more in other asset classes?

Just my two cents.
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Actually I did shop around trying to find new launch price and I found a new launch 650k offer landed area in Sri Kembangan. Well if it was near the heart of KL I would try and snap it up but it is not. But if I am not picky about location I will take it. I believe it is affordable for middle income family that has 10k++ income.

Then talking about areas in heart of KL. Ok let's take say Taman Maluri rundown flat around 600 sq ft for 150k. Anybody can get it if you want but the problem is do you want to live in such conditions? I am familiar with this area coz I live there, so I am giving this example. Actually I found one perfect example in LowYat forum. This was dated March 18 2012.

https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2270913/all

Unfurnished house for sale # 565 sf built-up. Unfurnished Flat for sell. Full renovated and located at Jalan Perkasa 1 Taman Maluri Cheras for sale

- 1 unit only
- selling price 100 000 k
- 2 room 1 bathroom
- renovation unit
- 4th floor(total got 4 floors every block, without lift)
- just behind Taman Maluri Jaya Jusco Supermarket
- easy access to Bukit Bintang, KL Town and KLCC area
- very near to Sunway Velocity which still in development and will growth in future
- Nearby Maluri Lrt Station and College's
- valuable for investing and comfortable living

-------------------------------------------

Maluri Flat is located at Jalan Perkasa 1, Taman Maluri, 55100 KL, Cheras, 55100, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. It has 6 blocks and 4 stories with a built up size of approx. 565 sqft per unit.

There are several schools in the area such as Sek Sri Garden (0.57km), Kolej Polytechnic Mara (0.62km), German Malaysia Institution (0.64km) and SM St Gabriel (0.65km).

There are numerous amenities nearby such as banks, shops and food stalls. It is also a 10 minute drive to Kuala Lumpur city centre and Bukit Bintang where residents will find several shopping malls and entertainment outlets.

Residents have convenient access to highways such as SMART, Bulatan Kampung Pandan and MRR2 which can be used to get to locations like KLCC.

Interested can contact 0192864934 for further detail


Cheap stuff are available out there but if you pay cheap, you get cheap quality. If you pay premium, you get pemium quality. If I was like on a 2k a month salary, I would snap this up, but I'm not.

SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jul 11 2013, 01:34 PM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Jul 11 2013, 11:49 AM)
Statistically and GINI rating, Malaysia is on 10% (likely to be lesser as our GINI is one of the highest on par with India/China) control 90%, not 20% control 80% wealth.
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This is another theory of mine. Or opinion wutever you call it.Just like my opinion on cars and properties.

I am a bumi and the bumis are among the poorest and has the highest birth rates amongst Malaysians. I have good rich well off non bumi friends and what I see, some of them dont want to get married and if they do, some of them dont want have kids. And if they want to have kids, some of them want one or two kids only.

Ergo, the large chunk of the poor are in the bumi population and it is increasing. However for these high birth rates among the bumis, there comes many success stories where they become really well off, eg the specialist couple that I told you guys about. But still there are many non succesful stories as well.

Maybe as you said 10% are controlling the wealth in Malaysia, why? My theory it is because the high birth rate of the poor population. It overwhelms the rich.

In the end we have increased rich people, we have increased poor people, and everybody needs a house to live in. Especially the bumis, they want to get married and have lots of kids.

This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jul 11 2013, 01:36 PM
hazairi
post Jul 11 2013, 01:40 PM

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This is the best time to cash in your property.

My fren bought Renjana Ampang Apartment for 170k in 2005 and sold it at 350k this year.
barbabas
post Jul 11 2013, 02:32 PM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Jul 11 2013, 09:27 AM)
DIBS is risky. Don't blame blinder by your conspiracy urge.
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DIBS is risky? Yes so do property gold etc. It's not conspiracy, it's analysing. Please don't blame me for blaming blinder?

Why only the E, or S ? How about the PTLE?
Evidence: Don't you see the establishment of Hostel or budget hotel everywhere? Does it really based on E, or P and L? Who own those business and whose the master?

Every factors equally. And this Boland don't you think the P and L factors ultimately drive the economy rather than the E factor?

Remember, every factors equally important in any investment.
Anon_1986
post Jul 11 2013, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jul 11 2013, 09:36 AM)
The news is relatively neutral, as it doesn't contradict what is already expected. Rates will stay low for a long time, but interestingly enough the Fed also indicated that QE may end as early as late this year. For our purposes, QE is very important as it drives excess reserves towards Asia to chase yields. In my view, QE is largely to blame for asset bubbles emerging all over Asia. A reversal of QE will indicate a reversal of this trend, a reduction in domestic liquidity, and a cause for a reversion in domestic rates to the norm. On the other hand, long term low rates in the US would serve as a buffer against excessively high interest rate hikes in Malaysia. This is because high Malaysian rates will generate a profitable carry trade moving cheap money back from the US to Malaysia, pushing interest rates down again.

On a macro basis, my view is that the most likely scenario is that we are headed towards a stagnation / slow burn downwards simply because BNM isn't going to allow debt levels to outpace GDP growth much further. Without debt growth, there is simply no new money to sustain higher prices. Contrary to popular opinion, higher prices are caused more by credit growth than income growth. (Note: If, contrary to my expectations, BNM does allow debt levels to rise (central bankers are often incompetent and wrong, see e.g. Alan Greenspan), we may be facing a a full blown financial crisis in the next few years, and not just a property crisis that indirectly affects the financial sector. You can refer to the BIS study on private debt levels to GDP for guidance on this matter)

At best, prices will be maintained as sellers transfer their debt to buyers. However, without the prospect of future appreciation, a lot of speculative demand will dry up (most high end condos are empty, signaling a high degree of speculative demand in this segment at least), adding downward pressure to prices. Further, at current purchasing prices even a slight increase in interest rates due to the withdrawal of QE will push installment payments above rental yields, disincentivising new buy-and-rent-out investors from purchasing from earlier buy-and-sell-on investors/flippers.

A crash is always possible depending on whether there is a perfect storm of domestic and global economic problems (e.g. Australia had a debt problem around the same magnitude as the US, but the commodities boom kept the property market afloat for almost 7 years after the US market tanked.), but without the intellectual capacity to time a crash with sufficient precision (at least I admit I do not), it may not make sense to everybody to plan their lives around it.

As always, I invite comment and criticism of my admittedly half-baked and ill-informed layperson views.
Nomos
post Jul 11 2013, 03:09 PM

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^agree esp on the income vs credit growth. People will argue that they know how to manage their finances smartly but yeah, not everyone is that clever esp if theyre trading on emotions and herd mentality. And on KL prices still cheap compared to HK, SG etc - of course ler our salaries are also cheaper.
AMINT
post Jul 11 2013, 03:41 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jul 11 2013, 09:36 AM)
For me good la. I can kumpul2 energy before i release my "kame kame haa".
kidmad
post Jul 11 2013, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(Nomos @ Jul 11 2013, 03:09 PM)
^agree esp on the income vs credit growth. People will argue that they know how to manage their finances smartly but yeah, not everyone is that clever esp if theyre trading on emotions and herd mentality. And on KL prices still cheap compared to HK, SG etc - of course ler our salaries are also cheaper.
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Sorry but I have to pick on your statement again. Not everyone is trading or investing. Most of them are buying so that they could have a place to call home. What's the % of homes build and freshies coming out from college today? Was it 2:1 or was it just nice for all of us? We have not consider yet some rich uncle/untie who could walk in and buy em by just pointing their magic fingers on the floor plan. Sometimes you have to see to believe... While I'm standing by the side listening to the sales rep about the project.. the fellow beside me would just point and say I want this one, this one, this one... shocking.gif

The price factor was debated quite sometime ago so I don't see a point to pick on it but as for being clever or not.. I find it amusing.. Do you really need to be clever before you can decide whether you want to buy a place for your own?
ReenaRina
post Jul 11 2013, 05:41 PM

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QUOTE(kimsong @ Jul 10 2013, 10:13 PM)
It is still possible if you have a big room (like a master bed room) and a baby. My family and I, three of us, lived in a medium sized room for months! Back to your situation, if you have extra rooms, you may want to consider to rent them out.
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Perhaps i am not that desperate
MaxKHOO
post Jul 11 2013, 06:15 PM

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BNM announced no change to OPR. Remain at 3.0%.
kh8668
post Jul 11 2013, 06:31 PM

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QUOTE(MaxKHOO @ Jul 11 2013, 06:15 PM)
BNM announced no change to OPR. Remain at 3.0%.
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Ref No : 07/13/05 Embargo : Not for publication or broadcast before 18 00 hours on Thursday 11 July 2013 Monetary Policy Statement
At the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting today, Bank Negara Malaysia decided to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3.00 percent.

The global economy continues to experience slow growth. In the advanced economies, growth has remained weak. While domestic demand in the emerging economies remains an important source of growth, the prolonged weakness in the external environment has begun to affect domestic economic activity in these economies. Although global monetary conditions remain highly accommodative, financial market volatility has increased substantially in the recent period as markets reassessed the direction of policy.

For the Malaysian economy, domestic demand has continued to support growth amid the continued moderation in external demand. The sustained weakness in the external sector may, however, affect the overall growth momentum. Going forward, private consumption is expected to remain steady underpinned by income growth and stable labour market conditions. Capital spending in the domestic-oriented industries and the ongoing implementation of infrastructure projects will also support investment activity.

Inflation remained low at 1.6% in the first five months of the year. While inflation is expected to rise in the second half of the year due to domestic supply and cost factors, it is projected to remain modest. Pressures from global commodity prices are also likely to be contained given the moderate global growth prospects.

The MPC considers the current stance of monetary policy to be appropriate given the outlook for inflation and growth. In addition to domestic conditions, the MPC will continue to carefully assess the global economic and financial developments and their implications on the overall outlook for inflation and growth of the Malaysian economy.

Bank Negara Malaysia
11 July 2013

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