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 V11 - Property Prices Discussion, Intelligent debates only pls

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SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jul 17 2013, 10:22 PM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Jul 17 2013, 10:13 PM)
The question is more about AFFORDABILITY. Nationwide, we have a housing shortage in the non-luxury segment (btw even medium cost can now be considered as "Kondominium Mewah" according to OSC). In a layman comment, I think the shortage is partly the fault of Federal and State Government in implementing social housing for all these years.

To put in perspective, the shortage is largely the lower-end segment. I don't see any shortage in the upper end but developers told me that the mid-class society can be "upgraders", meaning to say, the richer ones move one notch up, the next level move the next level... and eventually, the lower level will move to the existing low-end properties that we have.  (sounds like they upgraded from flats to condo? but most old condo will become flats as years go by)

So the market cannot be seen as only the joinees and investors... as they are many people who upgrade (or downgrade). This movement is enough to cause certain hotspots to boom.

+The latest estimation is 29.796 million as per population clock, however, this is computed based on our Fertility Rate... which over the 12 month will be reconciled with the numbers of Jabatan Pendaftaran Negara with small margin of errors. http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?lang=en
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Most of what you said is what i mentioned earlier in a different way. Affordability and gap between the rich and the poor. Population..its all there.

People upgrade, yes rich people are being created. Downgrade? Havent seen anybody doing that within my circle of frens.

accetera
post Jul 17 2013, 10:22 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 17 2013, 10:12 PM)
this is impt...

ad, what was the mgs yield last week, last month, last year? tq.
30mil popn... 23 mil regulars + 5mil indons-banglas-myanmaris in peninsula, 2 mil in sabah sarwak.

wow, tens of millions of houses and condo to sell! tongue.gif
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You'll be surprised that Chinese from Sabah and Sarawak are now picking up KL properties. If you see KK's price and new projects, I would think KL home prices are much more reasonable.

Generally, KL market is seeing alot of Malaysian buyers from outstation (from other states or from those working in Sg).

Also moving forward, it seems that property market will have more participation from our BUMI friends. No offence, based on demographics, it is a widely known fact that alot more young Malays are venturing into property investments. Previously the Malay community "participation" is relatively much lower.

Many big developers see the "Malay market" as one big market yet to be fully tapped - especially for highrise projects. Just like how big retailers see this way as well.

This post has been edited by accetera: Jul 17 2013, 10:26 PM
agentdiary
post Jul 17 2013, 10:36 PM

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accetera dont understand what I tried to explain but other deserve to know.

BNM has released about 24b liquidity for the past 5 month (how much? half of the cost of total MRT line 1+2+circle combined!) to stabilize the market. It is not even include month of June onward where the higher pressure start to take place around the world, that's the time MGS start to raise by over 25bps and no sign of slowing which force an even more actively intervention past few weeks.

accetera though high deposit is sign of high liquidity. (cant believe he said can so). The reason for high deposit is the require ratio is out of balance due to liquidity squeeze!! (ie. outstanding bill, deposit FI...)

High MGS yield was only seen pre 2008 period and it has come back for real! Personally I think the upward trajectory is quite significant.



QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 17 2013, 10:12 PM)
this is impt...

ad, what was the mgs yield last week, last month, last year? tq.
30mil popn... 23 mil regulars + 5mil indons-banglas-myanmaris in peninsula, 2 mil in sabah sarwak.

wow, tens of millions of houses and condo to sell! tongue.gif
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Rooney1985
post Jul 17 2013, 11:31 PM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Jul 17 2013, 10:36 PM)
accetera dont understand what I tried to explain but other deserve to know.

BNM has released about 24b liquidity for the past 5 month (how much? half of the cost of total MRT line 1+2+circle combined!) to stabilize the market. It is not even include month of June onward where the higher pressure start to take place around the world, that's the time MGS start to raise by over 25bps and no sign of slowing which force an even more actively intervention past few weeks.

accetera though high deposit is sign of high liquidity. (cant believe he said can so). The reason for high deposit is the require ratio is out of balance due to liquidity squeeze!! (ie. outstanding bill, deposit FI...)

High MGS yield was only seen pre 2008 period and it has come back for real! Personally I think the upward trajectory is quite significant.
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Wow!! Really?!? If that's the case we're really heading for a bumpy ride... No wonder RM currency is dropping... The major portion of this liquidity would also go to unproductive purposes like corruption
And therefore value is already overstated in terms of prices which is further spilled to surrounding developments that is absorb by public consumption which is in turned fueled by???? Debt, debt and more debt... So when we remove everything in the middle of the equation... It becomes clear that a portion of what the consumers are borrowing and repaying is in actually fact paying for the multiple layers of corruption!!! Hmmmm... And we've got a bunch of up campers here promoting this? Does this imply that they are pro corruption? I hope not... I hope they aren't here to mislead the general public... Well what I'm happy to hear is we had someone commending DAP... Well done... As for the others who are indirectly pro corruption... Shame on you... smile.gif

This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Jul 17 2013, 11:33 PM
EddyLB
post Jul 17 2013, 11:43 PM

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To all those so-called economists biggrin.gif

I have said it before. Economic downturn is a phenomenon. It is a cycle. It is not like something we have not seen before. What is so strange, or why are you afraid of it ?

I am sure most of you here have experience the 2008/09 downturn right ? Did you survived ?

I am sure many of you here experienced the 1997/98 downturn right ? Did you survived ?

Fewer but I am sure there are some here have experienced the 1987 or earlier downturn. But we survived

It is not the end of the world for economic downturn. If you prepared well, you will ride through it. In 1987, the company I worked for almost went under. But we persevered, we managed the situation and the company emerged stronger

In 1997 my companies faced the downturn, it was not a pleasant experience. We cut loss, we re-organised, negotiated with banks, and we re-emerged stronger today. 2008 was not as bad and we were fortunate it was over before we realised it was a downturn

During downturn, we manage the situation. We adjust to the needs. We cut cost. We spend less. Personally, we also adapt lah. Previously we eat out in good restaurant 2-3 times a week. During bad times, just eat at home. Breakfast eat gardenia bread lah. You won't die. Previously we change car during good times. If no money, just repair it. And you won't die if you don't wear designer cloths. 穷则变,变则通 (if you are poor, you change. After you change, it will turn for the better)

You will face it when it comes. Just need to prepare for it. Those flippers who are too aggressive will learn the lesson. If they can't make it, they will bankrupt. They deserve it because high risk high return. But they won't die. Seldom we hear people bankrupt and jump down from the 14th floor in malaysia laugh.gif

Don't sound like you have never experienced economic downturn before, please..... laugh.gif


accetera
post Jul 17 2013, 11:45 PM

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For me, I feel it is not so good to distinguish "up camper" and "down camper". Frankly, I myself would not like to be branded on any of those sides. Neither do I want to start arguments here and there.

I mean as far as I read here, people have different opinions, right or wrong. We just have to accept each other views. And I guess many of us too come from different backgrounds, different jobs, different income levels and different level of experience in life.

I hope the readers here simply just share their opinions or their readings. Do not be afraid of people tagging you a certain category or bashing you up for some articles written by someone else (not fair isn't it?). We can debate left or right, but it must end with some coolness.... not hatred or sorrow. Haha...

Oh yea.. one more thing, people in this forum can easily contact me via my signatures. So transparency. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by accetera: Jul 17 2013, 11:47 PM
Anon_1986
post Jul 18 2013, 01:16 AM

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If I may refer to an interesting article I just read:-

http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.ph...3#axzz2ZJr5kvH7

If the numbers are correct, this shows that a lot of the growth we have had in ASEAN is not due to improving fundamentals, but rather due to transient foreign capital chasing yields, and this supports the notion that the flow of "hot money" is currently the biggest risk factor for liquidity in our economy. Hot money is inherently volatile and unpredictable and the timing of a reversal of this trend is as much a question of economics as it is a question of political science.

Do note however that the tapering of QE is expected to be gradual, and one significant difference from back in 1997 is that we have ~RM433 in reserves.
kidmad
post Jul 18 2013, 07:53 AM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 17 2013, 11:31 PM)
Wow!! Really?!? If that's the case we're really heading for a bumpy ride... No wonder RM currency is dropping... The major portion of this liquidity would also go to unproductive purposes like corruption
And therefore value is already overstated in terms of prices which is further spilled to surrounding developments that is absorb by public consumption which is in turned fueled by???? Debt, debt and more debt... So when we remove everything in the middle of the equation... It becomes clear that a portion of what the consumers are borrowing and repaying is in actually fact paying for the multiple layers of corruption!!! Hmmmm... And we've got a bunch of up campers here promoting this? Does this imply that they are pro corruption? I hope not... I hope they aren't here to mislead the general public... Well what I'm happy to hear is we had someone commending DAP... Well done... As for the others who are indirectly pro corruption... Shame on you... smile.gif
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Rooney what rubbish is this about corruption. Base on your argument you should really apply "tak suka, then you keluar" idea. Corruption is everywhere in Malaysia perhaps even the shop whom u go makan everyday is paying RMxxx weekly or monthly basis to MB. Time to think straight. Those corrupted fellows are always there so should you just stop living?

There are alot of ppl joining Bersih 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 and more to come. My father joins them too but the problem is not the government.. It's the people. We are still living in a 3rd world mentality country. If everyone is so against corruption, bribery and treachery, BN would not have the 49% vote during election. Before we can change the country the first thing you have to change is yourself. Stop blaming corrupted politcs... The corruption happens because there is someone out there who is feeding them. smile.gif
barbabas
post Jul 18 2013, 08:39 AM

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Im not labelling but based on the opinions and arguments, IF I'm a boss I would like to put:

Accetera : Head of Strategic Div
Agentdiary : Head of Risk Div
Kidmad : Head of Business Dev Div
Rooney : Special officer CEO office

Don't angry ah tai kor..joke2 only. Im enjoying all the opinions and articles forwarded even most of the time my views differs. But hey, nobody's perfect anyway and humbly I do learnt a lot.

What we are talking is about the future, so for me no ones right or wrong. We see things as how we like to see it meaning that our appetite may not be the same.

But knowledge in the other hand is very very crucial. Oh how I love readings them posting that somehow sometime can be very emotional..sob sob..

Salam 1Malaysia ; p
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jul 18 2013, 08:46 AM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 17 2013, 11:31 PM)
Wow!! Really?!? If that's the case we're really heading for a bumpy ride... No wonder RM currency is dropping... The major portion of this liquidity would also go to unproductive purposes like corruption
And therefore value is already overstated in terms of prices which is further spilled to surrounding developments that is absorb by public consumption which is in turned fueled by???? Debt, debt and more debt... So when we remove everything in the middle of the equation... It becomes clear that a portion of what the consumers are borrowing and repaying is in actually fact paying for the multiple layers of corruption!!! Hmmmm... And we've got a bunch of up campers here promoting this? Does this imply that they are pro corruption? I hope not... I hope they aren't here to mislead the general public... Well what I'm happy to hear is we had someone commending DAP... Well done... As for the others who are indirectly pro corruption... Shame on you... smile.gif
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Yeah I really dunno what are you talking about here? So coruption is the cause of bubble? What? How are the up campers promoting this? Really don't get you. I guess I hav to be considered an up camper but I dun believe i suppport corruption. I boycotted buying cars because of this. In fact I asked to boycot car purchase in Malaysia becuase the car industry in Malaysia is full of corruption and is bleeding the rakyat dry, did you do that? I don't think so.
Rooney1985
post Jul 18 2013, 09:03 AM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 18 2013, 07:53 AM)
Rooney what rubbish is this about corruption. Base on your argument you should really apply "tak suka, then you keluar" idea. Corruption is everywhere in Malaysia perhaps even the shop whom u go makan everyday is paying RMxxx weekly or monthly basis to MB. Time to think straight. Those corrupted fellows are always there so should you just stop living?

There are alot of ppl joining Bersih 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 and more to come. My father joins them too but the problem is not the government.. It's the people. We are still living in a 3rd world mentality country. If everyone is so against corruption, bribery and treachery, BN would not have the 49% vote during election. Before we can change the country the first thing you have to change is yourself. Stop blaming corrupted politcs... The corruption happens because there is someone out there who is feeding them.  smile.gif
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Chill man... If you wish to criticise and insult the opinion of others by saying its rubbish, I can start that too... However, I got better things to do than stoop down to your level..

Just relax... Not everyone is going to think like you or accept your opinions so chill... its not about majority vote anymore... and you forgot the percentage coming from the banglas... However, I agree with two of your statements... which is also implied by my earlier post (which you labelled as "rubbish")...

1) Corruption is everywhere; and
2) Corruption happens because people feed it

Based on the above, if its everywhere... I'm definitely sure its in construction/ development/ property as well... from the licenses, to material supplies, import duties, sales launching, sub-sales, etc, etc and of course the overlaps from everyday life... so all these cost of corruption from the various layers are absorbed into the price... which people like you and I will have to pay for... So... are we not feeding corruption??? And if you labelled my comments rubbish... isn't yours worse than rubbish (a replica of my statements).

End of the day, just relax... why so up tight... and as some here would say... good morning and have a good day.

whistling.gif
TSkochin
post Jul 18 2013, 09:03 AM

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QUOTE(barbabas @ Jul 18 2013, 08:39 AM)
Im not labelling but based on the opinions and arguments,  IF I'm a boss I would like to put:

Accetera : Head of Strategic Div
Agentdiary : Head of Risk Div
Kidmad : Head of Business Dev Div
Rooney : Special officer CEO office

Don't angry ah tai kor..joke2 only. Im enjoying all the opinions and articles forwarded even most of the time my views differs. But hey,  nobody's perfect anyway and humbly I do learnt a lot.

What we are talking is about the future, so for me no ones right or wrong. We see things as how we like to see it meaning that our appetite may not be the same.

But knowledge in the other hand is very very crucial. Oh how I love readings them posting that somehow sometime can be very emotional..sob sob..

Salam 1Malaysia ; p
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who would be the CEO then? hmm.gif

anyway, heads up guys. we are moving into the 12th.

https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=2889415

Rooney1985
post Jul 18 2013, 09:04 AM

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QUOTE(barbabas @ Jul 18 2013, 08:39 AM)
Im not labelling but based on the opinions and arguments,  IF I'm a boss I would like to put:

Accetera : Head of Strategic Div
Agentdiary : Head of Risk Div
Kidmad : Head of Business Dev Div
Rooney : Special officer CEO office

Don't angry ah tai kor..joke2 only. Im enjoying all the opinions and articles forwarded even most of the time my views differs. But hey,  nobody's perfect anyway and humbly I do learnt a lot.

What we are talking is about the future, so for me no ones right or wrong. We see things as how we like to see it meaning that our appetite may not be the same.

But knowledge in the other hand is very very crucial. Oh how I love readings them posting that somehow sometime can be very emotional..sob sob..

Salam 1Malaysia ; p
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Everyone is different... not better not worst just different (copied from radio ad)...
Rooney1985
post Jul 18 2013, 09:05 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 18 2013, 08:46 AM)
Yeah I really dunno what are you talking about here? So coruption is the cause of bubble? What? How are the up campers promoting this? Really don't get you. I guess I hav to be considered an up camper but I dun believe i suppport corruption. I boycotted buying cars because of this. In fact I asked to boycot car purchase in Malaysia becuase the car industry in Malaysia is full of corruption and is bleeding the rakyat dry, did you do that? I don't think so.
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Rooney1985
post Jul 18 2013, 09:06 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jul 18 2013, 09:03 AM)
who would be the CEO then? hmm.gif

anyway, heads up guys. we are moving into the 12th.

https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=2889415
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Yippieee... v12

whistling.gif
SUStikaram
post Jul 18 2013, 09:17 AM

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warming here....

u will come at a point some up up up camp saying this again in V12.
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- Anytime is a good time to buy

- Properties prices will always go up in the long-term

- The market cannot collapse because of demand from foreigners

- Mickey mouse units are the trend of the future
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read more here why they said that? http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/property-...-151909308.html

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