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 V10 - Property Prices (Up, Down or .....), and the debate goes on and on and on ...

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SUSworgen
post Mar 31 2013, 12:03 AM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Mar 30 2013, 09:07 PM)
So little profit ah??? I sold mine at 700k bought at 350k from a desperate flipper... Lol!!! Buy buy more comeon everyone... Else how would I be able to find people to work hard paying off my dream home... My advice if you can afford buy ... So that I can make easy money and upgrade to my dream home and car... Lol!!!
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gross 280k little profit ah? i m a desperate seller, thats y. cant earn this much of profit in less thn 3years even fr my 5 figures salary, sure this profit is nothin to u. really envy u choose to be a footballer earning 200k rupiah per month.

This post has been edited by worgen: Mar 31 2013, 08:15 AM
joeblows
post Mar 31 2013, 12:14 AM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Mar 29 2013, 03:47 PM)
3. If u are asking on 'middle income with average down camp group' then I'll see still no action from them.
Reason 1: Prop price may be cheaper but they may still need almost the same amt (or could be more) of cash to purchase prop
Eg 500k prop,
90% LTV, cash up front 50k
70% LTV, cash up front 150k
If market has a correction of 30%, bear in mind that bank will give lower valuation preparing for the worst too..
500k - 30% = 350k, bank value will be easily 10-15% different.
If bank value 300k,
90% LTV, cash up front (350k-300k) + (300k x 10%) = 80k
70% LTV, cash up front (350k-300k) + (300k x 30%) = 140k
Reason 2: Fear. When bank gives lower value, greater fear will occur tat price going down further, or what if they lose their job at this time and etc.
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1. You can buy at bank valuation - just go for auction. There is also no guarantee that the bank valuation would be 10-15% less than the asking price, OR that the desperate seller can even insist his property commands a premium above the bank valuation.

2. One thing you are correct in is that cash up front may need to be higher (definitely more than 10%) so the smart investor is hoarding a cash pile now in short term instruments (if you are in down camp lah).

3. Losing job and whatnot, depends lah. Some people have stable jobs in companies. Other smarter ones may be working overseas - so the impact would be less or nonexistent. laugh.gif
ManutdGiggs
post Mar 31 2013, 04:15 AM

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QUOTE(worgen @ Mar 30 2013, 11:44 PM)
up a lil of 500k limit for commi prop? possible to get one in KV with this budget?
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There r some at usj. Those below apartments. Even in pandan u can get some same nature of shops. Ampang mewah apartment, not sure thw name but is selling at bout 500k. In kepong, there r many next to previous odeon cinema the current tai thong selling at 600+.

Just need to b familiar to get some like tis. Not a bad deal especially those in usj n subang. Both almost same price can get rental 2800. But usj 1 need some maintenance fee whereas kepong 1 is normal shop.

This post has been edited by ManutdGiggs: Mar 31 2013, 04:15 AM
Llchieng
post Mar 31 2013, 04:33 AM

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QUOTE(Llchieng @ Mar 31 2013, 04:27 AM)

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+1 good property esp commercial never for sale, usually people only sell those that underperformed after several year.
SUSworgen
post Mar 31 2013, 08:49 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Mar 31 2013, 04:15 AM)
There r some at usj. Those below apartments. Even in pandan u can get some same nature of shops. Ampang mewah apartment, not sure thw name but is selling at bout 500k. In kepong, there r many next to previous odeon cinema the current tai thong selling at 600+.

Just need to b familiar to get some like tis. Not a bad deal especially those in usj n subang. Both almost same price can get rental 2800. But usj 1 need some maintenance fee whereas kepong 1 is normal shop.
*
not familiar with commi. keen to know more. those shop below apt u mentioned selling 600+, sound underperformed. what will be the future capital appreciation? invest in normal shop even slightly outside KV will be a better bet? places like semenyih, nilai or dengkil?

This post has been edited by worgen: Mar 31 2013, 08:50 AM
SUStat3179
post Mar 31 2013, 09:14 AM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Mar 30 2013, 11:52 PM)
Wah.......so syiok. I go to JKT for work just one week and 40+ pages of arguing on a new thread.

Congrats to tat on his new house. smile.gif

Am I disappointed he bought? No, why would I be. I think price is a little high at 600+ psf but to each his own.

Doesn't change my view one bit.
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Hey thanks bro..
SUStat3179
post Mar 31 2013, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Mar 31 2013, 04:15 AM)
There r some at usj. Those below apartments. Even in pandan u can get some same nature of shops. Ampang mewah apartment, not sure thw name but is selling at bout 500k. In kepong, there r many next to previous odeon cinema the current tai thong selling at 600+.

Just need to b familiar to get some like tis. Not a bad deal especially those in usj n subang. Both almost same price can get rental 2800. But usj 1 need some maintenance fee whereas kepong 1 is normal shop.
*
Hmm..really?

On day when I am ready I will check it out...
Hello_kitty 89
post Mar 31 2013, 11:06 AM

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Property prices continue to increase. Still waiting after GE? @@
Rooney1985
post Mar 31 2013, 11:16 AM

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QUOTE(worgen @ Mar 31 2013, 12:03 AM)
gross 280k little profit ah? i  m a desperate seller, thats y. cant earn this much of profit in less thn 3years even fr my 5  figures salary, sure this profit is nothin to u.  really envy u choose to be a footballer earning 200k rupiah per month.
*
Relax la, it's okay... Some people make more profit some people make less profit... Don't be frustrated okay? Hmmm can't make 280k in three years with a five figure salary... Sounds like its an entry level five figure salary... Anyway, it's okay relax la, you'll get there someday... Back to the topic... Prices still up, my very very close friend just told me got some people offer him very good prices for one of the properties he holds, so I told him take the highest offered price and slab on 30% more... Lol!!! With that extra he can buy new car... It's like the person that buys it will pay the 5 year car loan for him... Hahaha... So we see la, I'm waiting for his invite we go party in his new FREE car!!! Hahaha... Buy more guys prices only up you don't buy now tomorrow you dream only la... Hehe
A.B.D.
post Mar 31 2013, 12:55 PM

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Following The Smart Money In Asia

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesgruber/20...-money-in-asia/
ManutdGiggs
post Mar 31 2013, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(worgen @ Mar 31 2013, 08:49 AM)
not familiar with commi. keen to know more. those shop below apt u mentioned selling 600+, sound underperformed. what will be the future capital appreciation?  invest in normal shop even slightly outside KV will be a better bet? places like semenyih, nilai or dengkil?
*
Bro, places u mentioned oso hav 600+ commi n I dun think thecap appre can perform beta. But if comparing to sthg more expensive in those areas u mentioned then its not comparable due to pricing. All areas ll hav the mixture of expensive n cheap props but tat doesnt mean the cheap 1 is not performing. Its cheap due to certain reason. Eg older or smaller. But stil % in appre is the same or not far behind.
AVFAN
post Mar 31 2013, 01:44 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ Mar 31 2013, 12:55 PM)
tq. it is an interesting article.

the chart below is particularly interesting. it does show, as we know, the prop collapse in usa, ireland, spain. seems the recent canadian collapse hasn't gone in the data yet.

going by that data and the writer's argument, hongkong is about to burst, singapore next. but these are small islands with fast action gomens and lotsa hot money.

it'll be good if similar data for bolehsia is placed on the chart, esp the price relative to rent and avg disposable income. if u can rent a home for <2k pm, for how long can peple keep buying the same kind of home for 700-800k?

user posted image

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 31 2013, 01:50 PM
hazairi
post Mar 31 2013, 02:35 PM

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Keeping my cash high. ASB give returns on average 7-9% per annum, while the property price in Malaysia is now stagnant. Not worth buying now..
kh8668
post Mar 31 2013, 02:45 PM

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ngaisteve1
post Mar 31 2013, 03:15 PM

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Hi just wondering how extension for the Sri petaling lrt station going on so far? The extension will be until puchong n kelana jaya right?
cranx
post Mar 31 2013, 03:37 PM

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http://www.bt.com.bn/business-world/2013/0...g-credit-bubble

Asia 'at risk of emerging credit bubble'

QUOTE
THERE are fears that a credit bubble might be emerging in Asia, including in Singapore, given the huge expansion in lending, according to two new reports.

Credit has grown "vigorously" in several economies, noted RBS analyst Sanjay Mathur recently.

The growth has raised concerns that Asia is becoming overly dependent on credit, while the build-up in household leverage in places such as Singapore could start to curb domestic demand, he noted. Leverage refers to the ratio of debt to personal income.

The bank's analysis indicates credit has risen, especially in Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand. The levels by themselves might not seem daunting, but the pace of growth is worrying, said Mathur. A sharp increase in credit over a short period could weigh on asset quality if these economies suffer interest rate or income shocks, he noted.

In Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore, for instance, household debt now exceeds 65 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). Property forms a large share of household assets, so a drop in real estate prices or a rise in mortgage rates could have serious effects.

"Though banking systems are well-capitalised in these countries and we see no immediate problems, the risk is that a rise in interest rates, a slowdown in household income growth or a drop in property prices could restrain consumption growth," noted Mathur.

Singapore is seen as one of the economies where such a risk could be an issue. Between the first quarter of 2008 and the third quarter of last year, household liabilities here increased from 61 per cent of GDP to 74 per cent. The corresponding increase in household wealth was concentrated almost entirely in property assets, with the share of financial assets remaining stable.

Mathur noted that even though there is no immediate crisis on the cards for the region, vigilance is required.

Credit insurance firm Coface Group noted in a report this week that expansionist monetary policies in emerging economies since the 2008 global financial crisis have generated sustained growth in bank credit, to the point where bubbles are forming.

Failures in prudential controls have also played a part in contributing to these bubbles, it added.

Economies in emerging Asia Malaysia and Thailand and, to a lesser extent, South Korea, China and Taiwan are the most at risk, it said. The Straits Times/ANN

SUStat3179
post Mar 31 2013, 03:41 PM

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QUOTE(hazairi @ Mar 31 2013, 02:35 PM)
Keeping my cash high. ASB give returns on average 7-9% per annum, while the property price in Malaysia is now stagnant. Not worth buying now..
*
Yeahlah, rub it in.

You bumis have it damn easy, no need to think, sweat, risk and do homework and dump all excess to ASB and get above inflation returns while us nons have to crack our heads and worry our hair white and risk investing in order to beat inflation.

Go dai please.
cranx
post Mar 31 2013, 03:53 PM

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http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting/2...edit-explosion/

Asia’s credit explosion

QUOTE
Whatever is happening to all those Asian savers? Apparently they are turning into big time borrowers.

RBS contends in a note today that in a swathe of Asian countries (they exclude China and South Korea) bank deposits are not keeping pace with credit which has expanded in the past three years by up to 40 percent.

Some of this clearly is down to slowing exports and a greater focus on the domestic consumer.  Credit levels are also rising overall in these economies because of borrowing for big infrastructure projects.  But there are signs too that credit conditions are too loose.

Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand are the three countries where credit is expanding most rapidly, according to RBS.  And in terms of household indebtedness, ratios in  Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore now exceed 65 percent of GDP (that’s not terribly far off US households’ debt-GDP ratios of around 80 percent)

RBS analysts acknowledge that these levels by themselves do not seem daunting. But they warn:

What is however worrying is the pace of credit growth. …The combination of rapid credit disbursals and more importantly, the on-going divergence between credit disbursals and GDP growth implies that the system is becoming more vulnerable to income and interest rate shocks.

The analysts cite the example of Singapore  where household liabilities rose to 74 percent of GDP from 61 percent in the 2008-2012 period.  The corresponding increase in  household wealth was almost entirely concentrated in property, leaving households exposed to a decline in property prices or higher interest rates.

There are other potential consequences too. The rise in borrowing comes at a time when labour productivity across much of Asia is declining (see graphic). This divergence eventually will hit the region’s balance of payments — India, Indonesia and Thailand are already deficit countries while Malaysia’s surplus has fallen sharply.  Second, the rise in credit is impacting banks’ loan-deposit ratios.

Signs are that savings rates are declining while there has also been a shift away from buying financial assets into gold or real estate — low interest rates are an effective deterrent to savers. RBS says:

This diversion…implies that unless deposit growth picks up, the current pace of credit growth can not be sustained. For deposits to rise, deposit rates need to rise and in real terms. The mismatch between lending and deposits also implies monetary tightening has been insufficient.


SUSworgen
post Mar 31 2013, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Mar 31 2013, 11:16 AM)
Relax la, it's okay... Some people make more profit some people make less profit... Don't be frustrated okay? Hmmm can't make 280k in three years with a five figure salary... Sounds like its an entry level five figure salary... Anyway, it's okay relax la, you'll get there someday... Back to the topic... Prices still up, my very very close friend just told me got some people offer him very good prices for one of the properties he holds, so I told him take the highest offered price and slab on 30% more... Lol!!! With that extra he can buy new car... It's like the person that buys it will pay the 5 year car loan for him... Hahaha... So we see la, I'm waiting for his invite we go party in his new FREE car!!! Hahaha... Buy more guys prices only up you don't buy now tomorrow you dream only la... Hehe
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i m relax. you too dun feel frustrated at up up up camp yea whn price stubborn not crashing. now feeling one biji bigger thn the other, right? relax la, after v1 to v10, u shld get used to it. but thn ,your have ill advised ur buddy. why 30% only? u crazy. u should ask him to slap on 100% higher. the extra can get one new house. the buyer may be greatest fool you been talking about.
ManutdGiggs
post Mar 31 2013, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 31 2013, 03:41 PM)
Yeahlah, rub it in.

You bumis have it damn easy, no need to think, sweat, risk and do homework and dump all excess to ASB and get above inflation returns while us nons have to crack our heads and worry our hair white and risk investing in order to beat inflation.

Go dai please.
*
Cool bro. All of us hav a choice. Chinese or Indian can oso buy ASB if convert to Muslim. So it's unfair to b envious. Look at it on the other way. Not many bumis can own props due to NEP. Tis put other races in a beta position where make them more competitive than bumis.

V r in bolehland. So just hav to accept it.

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