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 V10 - Property Prices (Up, Down or .....), and the debate goes on and on and on ...

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cranx
post Mar 19 2013, 08:13 PM

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I believe to ensure the bubble wont pop we need the following conditions.

1) new launch buyers mostly are own stay buyers with good income
2) large pool of tenants with the ability to pay high rent
3) low interest rates


cranx
post Mar 23 2013, 02:42 PM

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gark you missed out that window to flip for big bucks buying at 2008 and selling around 2011.
cranx
post Mar 24 2013, 12:24 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 23 2013, 10:36 PM)
Not impossible, but close to it.

The prices just went up too much for rentals to cover.

Me, I just buy it partly to give it to my daughter so that she may have own place to live in when she grows up.

Rental is bare minimum only frankly. Only saving grace is that it should be easy to rent out.

Even at 410k it is still overpriced. But hey, what can you do? See an opportunity and just grab it.

At least it is not that insanely high.
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oh my, you just bought one of the most oversupply product in coming years.
how is the rental rate for similar sized units around that area?
cranx
post Mar 26 2013, 06:38 PM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Mar 26 2013, 06:09 PM)
I'm a guy in financial O/G... sorry, have to disagree that Malaysia has high purchasing power. We only have "ease of credit" according to World Bank ranking - we top 5 in the world for that.
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Consumer purchasing power:

As of the state today, in the retail industry for example, how many of these retailers are present in Malaysia?

The middle class of Malaysians showed less tendency to afford foreign fashion clothing compared to the middle class earners of Thailand and Indonesia. Why? Issit because Malaysians have large debt in insurance and car loans or mortgages? Or issit because only the "Chinese-ethnic" are buying? 

Well, the good news is there are many who have expressed interest to come to Malaysia once we have more luxury malls opened.

The proposed largest mall is still... ON... in effective as a proposal only.
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very active topic. on fire now. tongue.gif
you brought up a valid point, chicken and egg story.

are we building to cater for the lack of supply? or are we building to attract foreign demand?
just like how Steve Jobs did it. Smart phone was never an item in huge demand until Iphone. So if we build enough, largest, tallest, longest etc maybe we will be Asia number 1 very soon.
cranx
post Mar 26 2013, 10:04 PM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ Mar 26 2013, 09:56 PM)
If u r rich, then i think it is ok. However for a normal people like myself, without debt to leverage on, it will take granny years to reach my goal.
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Even the rich use leveraging to multiply their wealth. Must understand the risk that's all. Leveraging is not necessary a bad thing.
cranx
post Mar 28 2013, 12:53 AM

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QUOTE(Halamdar @ Mar 27 2013, 03:23 PM)
Dont have debts =/= dont invest.
Before you come screaming : O, u must be rich or from rich family ....... I come from the typical middle income group family. Just that I CHOOSE to Save and invest and NOT to Borrow to invest.
True, but investing with debt money earn way faster than investment using savings. power of leverage.
must understand the risk though, heavy leverage is a risky gamble.

My concern on the ones born around late 80s onwards buying properties with the mindset of 100% guaranteed profit. very dangerous.
cranx
post Mar 29 2013, 03:02 AM

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treasury website with info updated until 4Q 12. For those who like numbers and statistics only.
NAPIC 4Q data should be published very soon as well.

http://www.treasury.gov.my/pdf/ekonomi/sukutahun4_2012.pdf

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cranx
post Mar 29 2013, 01:30 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Mar 29 2013, 08:44 AM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

Thanks. Outstanding loan chart does not look pretty.
Any clue if there is one available with a longer timeline?
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it is quarter by quarter in the website, anyway lets look at house price index for 10 year period

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/real-es...ices/M#malaysia

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This post has been edited by cranx: Mar 29 2013, 01:31 PM
cranx
post Mar 29 2013, 03:17 PM

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QUOTE(chubbyken @ Mar 29 2013, 02:08 PM)
is now bear trap or bull trap?
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2008 bear trap, now denial stage.
cranx
post Mar 31 2013, 03:37 PM

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http://www.bt.com.bn/business-world/2013/0...g-credit-bubble

Asia 'at risk of emerging credit bubble'

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THERE are fears that a credit bubble might be emerging in Asia, including in Singapore, given the huge expansion in lending, according to two new reports.

Credit has grown "vigorously" in several economies, noted RBS analyst Sanjay Mathur recently.

The growth has raised concerns that Asia is becoming overly dependent on credit, while the build-up in household leverage in places such as Singapore could start to curb domestic demand, he noted. Leverage refers to the ratio of debt to personal income.

The bank's analysis indicates credit has risen, especially in Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand. The levels by themselves might not seem daunting, but the pace of growth is worrying, said Mathur. A sharp increase in credit over a short period could weigh on asset quality if these economies suffer interest rate or income shocks, he noted.

In Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore, for instance, household debt now exceeds 65 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). Property forms a large share of household assets, so a drop in real estate prices or a rise in mortgage rates could have serious effects.

"Though banking systems are well-capitalised in these countries and we see no immediate problems, the risk is that a rise in interest rates, a slowdown in household income growth or a drop in property prices could restrain consumption growth," noted Mathur.

Singapore is seen as one of the economies where such a risk could be an issue. Between the first quarter of 2008 and the third quarter of last year, household liabilities here increased from 61 per cent of GDP to 74 per cent. The corresponding increase in household wealth was concentrated almost entirely in property assets, with the share of financial assets remaining stable.

Mathur noted that even though there is no immediate crisis on the cards for the region, vigilance is required.

Credit insurance firm Coface Group noted in a report this week that expansionist monetary policies in emerging economies since the 2008 global financial crisis have generated sustained growth in bank credit, to the point where bubbles are forming.

Failures in prudential controls have also played a part in contributing to these bubbles, it added.

Economies in emerging Asia Malaysia and Thailand and, to a lesser extent, South Korea, China and Taiwan are the most at risk, it said. The Straits Times/ANN

cranx
post Mar 31 2013, 03:53 PM

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http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting/2...edit-explosion/

Asia’s credit explosion

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Whatever is happening to all those Asian savers? Apparently they are turning into big time borrowers.

RBS contends in a note today that in a swathe of Asian countries (they exclude China and South Korea) bank deposits are not keeping pace with credit which has expanded in the past three years by up to 40 percent.

Some of this clearly is down to slowing exports and a greater focus on the domestic consumer.  Credit levels are also rising overall in these economies because of borrowing for big infrastructure projects.  But there are signs too that credit conditions are too loose.

Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand are the three countries where credit is expanding most rapidly, according to RBS.  And in terms of household indebtedness, ratios in  Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore now exceed 65 percent of GDP (that’s not terribly far off US households’ debt-GDP ratios of around 80 percent)

RBS analysts acknowledge that these levels by themselves do not seem daunting. But they warn:

What is however worrying is the pace of credit growth. …The combination of rapid credit disbursals and more importantly, the on-going divergence between credit disbursals and GDP growth implies that the system is becoming more vulnerable to income and interest rate shocks.

The analysts cite the example of Singapore  where household liabilities rose to 74 percent of GDP from 61 percent in the 2008-2012 period.  The corresponding increase in  household wealth was almost entirely concentrated in property, leaving households exposed to a decline in property prices or higher interest rates.

There are other potential consequences too. The rise in borrowing comes at a time when labour productivity across much of Asia is declining (see graphic). This divergence eventually will hit the region’s balance of payments — India, Indonesia and Thailand are already deficit countries while Malaysia’s surplus has fallen sharply.  Second, the rise in credit is impacting banks’ loan-deposit ratios.

Signs are that savings rates are declining while there has also been a shift away from buying financial assets into gold or real estate — low interest rates are an effective deterrent to savers. RBS says:

This diversion…implies that unless deposit growth picks up, the current pace of credit growth can not be sustained. For deposits to rise, deposit rates need to rise and in real terms. The mismatch between lending and deposits also implies monetary tightening has been insufficient.


cranx
post Apr 15 2013, 10:38 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Apr 15 2013, 10:08 PM)
Brother Kira.ryuk,
I don't invest in gold, can't advise you.
Gold is unproductive asset, I prefer properties. I don't like to invest 140k to gain 20k, I prefer to invest 20k to gain 100k
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I agree with you. gold is not so much an investment, It is more of wealth preservation in a high inflation or doomsday scenario.

QUOTE(worgen @ Apr 15 2013, 10:28 PM)
it wont works whn the trend in bearish at this moment. should cut loss and get out. and re enter whn the trend turn around. jz my 2cents. ok back to topic. am still borrowing this quote fr auntie dern.
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Will you apply the same theory for property investment when the trend turns bearish? cut loss and get out.


cranx
post Apr 15 2013, 11:08 PM

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QUOTE(worgen @ Apr 15 2013, 10:53 PM)
if property turn bearish, it would be illogical not to cut loss and get out.
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Correct.
I would say no one can predict 100% and sell at the peak price but generally it is good to do some analysis, understand the market trends, get in before everyone starts buying and get out before the herd starts stampede off the cliff.

cranx
post Apr 17 2013, 04:52 PM

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not sure if anyone already posted. some comments are contradictory, and seems the new benchmark for affordable property is now RM500k ~ RM1 million.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...09&sec=business

Demand in secondary property market slow in H1

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THE demand in the secondary property market is expected to remain slow during the first half of this year, a reflection of last year's trend due to Bank Negara's responsible lending guidelines, says Property Hub Sdn Bhd resident manager Wan Choy Heng.

He says that the situation is expected to remain slow as house buyers prefer project launches that come with a developer's interest bearing scheme (DIBS) There is also the general sentiment that the property market is due for a price correction.


“Many have committed to a property with a DIBS package to hedge against the market in three years, as most condominiums or service apartments take three years to complete,” Wan says.


Property Hub is among 30 real estate agencies participating in the Malaysian Secondary Property Exhibition (Maspex) 2013 held from April 12-14 in Petaling Jaya. It is organised by the Malaysian Institute of Estate Agents.

Despite the general preference among house buyers for new projects, Wan says the secondary property market will remain healthy as there is a sizeable group of buyers looking for homes to occupy or to upgrade from their current properties.

The secondary residential market in the RM500,000 to RM1mil range will remain active, subject to the availability of financing, he says. This group of buyers are unaffected by the 70% loan-to-value ruling, the stringent bank loan approving process because they are mostly first-time home buyers, or upgraders.

The traditional hot spots where demand exceeds supply include landed terrace houses in Bangsar, Hartamas, Cheras, Puchong, Petaling Jaya and Subang Jaya/USJ. Both landed and strata developments, near MRT and LRT stations are expected to enjoy high demand.

Transactions are buoyant in Kota Damansara, Cheras Perdana and Kajang since the construction of an MRT station began a year ago, says Wan.

“As our society is getting more affluent, and our city more globalised, we will need more housing projects which emphasise on lifestyle and security. Undoubtedly, guarded and gated developments will be the common trend in the years to come.”

Dynamic Penang
As one of the most dynamic real estate markets in the country, Penang's outlook remains stable and positive (in the medium to long term), despite the global uncertainties, Henry Butcher Malaysia (Penang) director Jason Teoh says.

“This will be sustained by a healthy core demand, manageable mortgage rates and positive economic growth.

“An active residential sub-sector will continue to spearhead the market, although it may experience less buzz compared to the previous year. On the island, the hot spot or corridor of opportunities are Batu Maung, Bayan Lepas, George Town, Tanjung Bungah and Teluk Bahang.

“On the mainland, the investors would be able to get residential properties that are relatively cheap with low density in strategic locations.

“A new enabler the second Penang Bridge will appear in the third quarter of this year. Opportunities may arise not only on the island but on the mainland as well. Investors could consider land around the intersection of the North-South Highway and the second Penang Bridge,” Teoh says.

Areas around the five new proposed highways under the Recommended Penang Transport Master Plan Strategy, 2013, could be potential hot locations for the property market, he says. Some of the areas included the George Town Outer Bypass, North Coast Pair Road, Air Itam Relau Pair Road, North-South Expressway Link Road and Third Sea Crossing.

Teoh says the volume and value of property transactions grew at a cumulative average growth rate of 8.4% and 13.2% respectively, from 1999-2011. These were even higher from 2009-2011, reaching 20.1% and 26.0% respectively.

Of all property types, prices of terraced houses have increased the most over the last few years. The price index from 1999 to the third quarter of 2012 have increased more than other type of properties.

Another property that is in demand, with potential capital appreciation, is the pre-war heritage shophouse. The price index of pre-war properties in George Town started to soar after 1999.

Teoh believes the demand for properties in both the new and secondary market will continue to grow and appeal to a wider segment of local and international buyers.

“Furthermore, more than one-third of the Penang's 1.61 million population are aged between 25 and 44. This means we will need a fairly large number of houses or residential properties each year. Nevertheless, the developers have to be more versatile and build according to the changing trends and needs of the market.”


Increasing land prices Shah Alam
In Shah Alam, Selangor, Reapfield principal Norashikin Kamarudin recommends new developments such as Bukit Bayu, Kayangan Heights, Sunway Alam Suria, Bandar Nusa Rhu, Greenfield, Saujana Utama and Taman Seri Pristana.

Central Shah Alam's section seven, nine and 13 are also in demand with a limited supply of houses for sale, says the head of this agency which focuses on sale and rental of residential properties.

“Ninety per cent of our deals are in bungalows, semi-detached, bungalow land, linked houses, apartments and condominiums. However, we also deal in commercial shop houses, office space, factories and land,” she says. The price of bungalow land has increased from RM60 per sq ft in 2011 to RM110 per sq ft now.


Freehold townships such as Alam Impian, Bukit Jelutong and Denai Alam, have seen good capital appreciation and will continue to be in demand.

“The residential market segment of below RM1mil is resilient and unaffected by market sentiments. Clients in this segment are made up of first-time buyers, small investors and young couples upgrading from apartments to double-storey linked or semi-detached houses. Most of the purchases in this segment are based on need rather than a desire to make money through speculative investments,” she adds
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cranx
post Apr 26 2013, 09:11 PM

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Q4 house price index is out already, most states recorded increase in price. Selangor is the state with decrease prices in all categories.

http://napic.jpph.gov.my/portal/content/Pu...ksQ3Q4%2012.pdf

Terrace

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High Rise

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Semi D

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Detached

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cranx
post Apr 26 2013, 09:32 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Apr 26 2013, 09:25 PM)
what about commercial shoplot
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Good point, SOVO, SOHO, serviced apartments etc should be under this category. Briefly read through seems to be a lot of unsold units.
Do not follow commercial shop lots though, you can check below for more details.

http://napic.jpph.gov.my/portal/content/Pu...20Q4%202012.pdf
cranx
post May 20 2013, 11:11 AM

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http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/property/23...ia-pacific.html

Property price correction expected in Asia Pacific.

*Malaysia is likely to see rebound in activity in the property market following the recently concluded general election.

cranx
post May 20 2013, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ May 20 2013, 02:29 PM)
Yes I found cheap stuff.. but then I think seller is desperate and I can get it cheaper!!! lmfao!!!! I send some buddies to play some mind-price games with the owner first... lol then only go and and slash the greedy bugger... lmfao!!! I get the feeling his/her business not doing well, seems might lead to bankruptcy... so slash him kau2 when the time is right.. and as the article above says, buy below market and I've already made... lol...

BBB Baby!!
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did you buy already? is the price meeting your targeted price?

there is discussion on wtf forum on the quiet secondary market..

http://www.propertywtf.com.my/news-policie...2013-t2151.html

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