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 V10 - Property Prices (Up, Down or .....), and the debate goes on and on and on ...

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Rooney1985
post Mar 18 2013, 11:50 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 18 2013, 08:02 AM)
But my question is this, should the worst occurs and we experience what the Americans experience during the '08, even thou you have holding power but your props are 30-40 percent underwater, how long must you wait for the prices to even return to the level you bought, much less increase, if it ever does.

For example, some houses in the us never went back to the level it was first sold during the bubble.
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US average home prices increased 70% - 75% over a period of 4 fours (starting 2002/03) and peaking at 2006/07 before the bubble burst. Within 1 to 2 years (2008-09), the prices returned to what they were in 2002!!! And they're still hovering around the same range now (2012/2013)!!!

Questions to think about...
1. When did props here start sky rocketing?
2. Whats the increase in percentage terms?
3. Is the period in Q1 and percentage in Q2 similar/ worst/ better?

biggrin.gif Happy pondering...

This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Mar 18 2013, 12:07 PM
Rooney1985
post Mar 18 2013, 12:23 PM

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http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-ma...in-2013-analyst

Rooney1985
post Mar 19 2013, 03:44 PM

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OOOoooooo!!! LoL!!!!
Rooney1985
post Mar 21 2013, 07:38 PM

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If BNM thinks its healthy debt levels why have to monitor closely? The remark already gave itself away... Lol!!!
Rooney1985
post Mar 21 2013, 11:08 PM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Mar 21 2013, 11:00 PM)
bcoz they are looking at the wrong things.

my 'preferred' indicators are very simple. 1) debts level and 2) broad money growth. When 1) reach saturation and 2) slow for few quarters straight, the end game is near.

What is now?
1) Congrat, household debts level breached 80% in Dec 2012! (Bafia & Dafia but ex. private loan/unlicensed/ah along)
2) money growth continue to slow for over 2Q now.

We are near. But there will be a time lag before the price really response. 

No body will know the date to be fair. Even Soro can't predict the date when Bath could go down, but he knew the maturity of short term obligation and the size of it. When it happened, he just ride on it.

Really silly when see ppl tirelessly ask something like when the market (they also love to probe people by giving a date) will go down or up and worst off, quantify the intensity of the up/fall like 10% or -20%. Normally they feel himself 'good' when the other don't answer him. But he never know he was the one asking naive question.
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Lol!!! I guess that for those who fear/ think that prices will continue to rise forever please go buy now... Lol... What better way to expedite the bubble bursting then to make it even bigger... Faster buy... Hehe...
Rooney1985
post Mar 22 2013, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(hazairi @ Mar 22 2013, 11:20 AM)
Household debt vs GDP reached 80% This is totally insane.
BNM would be in dilemma.
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You're absolutely 110% spot-on biggrin.gif

They're in such a huge dilemma that they don't have the slightest idea on what to do... the only option to them is to 'closely monitor'... LoL!!! That's the severity of the situation.
Rooney1985
post Mar 22 2013, 08:46 PM

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Definitely up camp rules!!!! Faster buy more!!! Lol
Rooney1985
post Mar 23 2013, 09:15 AM

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Let's just hope that if the bubble pops, the govt doesn't do a Cyprus plan A!!! Heheh...
Rooney1985
post Mar 25 2013, 08:37 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Mar 25 2013, 02:52 PM)
Correct me if I'm wrong on the following calculation....
140% Debts/Disposable Household Income
If Mr Z debt amt 300,000
Disposable Income = 300,000/1.4 = 214,285 (Annual income after Tax)
Mr Z monthly income = 214,285/12 = 17,857 (after tax)
300,000 monthly payment est 1,500, I'll round off to 2,000
Mr Z income for other expenses after debt payment monthly = 17,857 - 2,000 = 15,857

I'm not into economic study or whatsoever, jus wonder anything wrong on my calculation?  hmm.gif  hmm.gif  hmm.gif

And this does not included or concern on assets value too right? If the asset value 1,000,000 now?  hmm.gif  hmm.gif
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Calculation looks fine but assumption that household consists of one person may not be true... .... Nice try though... Lol!!! Buy buy buy tomorrow prices going up... Hehe

Rooney1985
post Mar 25 2013, 08:53 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Mar 25 2013, 08:49 PM)
doh.gif  doh.gif  doh.gif
Does it make a difference in the calculation answer on different number of ppl???
Nice try.....  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif
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Of course it does... But lazy want to explain la... Wasting my time lol!!! Buy buy faster buy... I'm hoping prices go up further and people buy more... Hehe...
Rooney1985
post Mar 26 2013, 08:42 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 26 2013, 08:37 AM)
In some ways true.

Judging by the crisis hitting Europe and the US, we middle class Asians actually have it better than than them.
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Just like leading and lagging indicators, the effects are lagging on us... In a way, its advantageous to us that precautionary steps before we experience the same as the developed countries. However, bolehland being bolehland lol... you know I know enough la...

Developing countries more spending power... LOL!!!! Aisey... really need to invest in education man... LOL!!!!

This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Mar 26 2013, 08:43 AM
Rooney1985
post Mar 26 2013, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(debtismoney @ Mar 26 2013, 02:47 PM)
Haha. How could a self proclaimed oil&gas expert survive with this stupidity in the energy industry?
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Just can't make any sense of it.... in nominal terms its incorrect, its also incorrect in terms of purchase power parity... I don't know.. I just don't know... sometimes I feel like its killing my brain cells every time I read those posts... lol!!!

This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Mar 26 2013, 02:57 PM
Rooney1985
post Mar 26 2013, 02:59 PM

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LoL!!...
Rooney1985
post Mar 26 2013, 06:02 PM

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LOL!!!! Yes Yes... all char kuay teow hawkers should go to Canada and make big bucks... ROFL!!
Rooney1985
post Mar 26 2013, 06:03 PM

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Agreed you don't need much intellect... to be financially powerful... look at the mafia... LoL... lets all go into the illegal business... ROFL
Rooney1985
post Mar 26 2013, 07:27 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Mar 26 2013, 07:02 PM)
of course education is very important, otherwise we won't send our children to school.

intellectual helps to increaase the level of civilization for the country. yes it may help for financial freedom too, but it doesn't help if someone without field knowledge, no action and keep telling the theory, also keep telling the fundemental.

a successful businessman may not have Bsc, MBA or PHD, and proven that most of them doesn't have, because they understand the business, knowing well the market.

i'm not a top student before but still holding a bachelor degree, i have friends in both side; educated, uneducated and uneducated but smart, i also friend with developers, car dealer, 1 of the top 10 young entrepreneur winner 2012 also my friend, high pay O&G employee too. i have also friend with working level 9am-5pm but earning peanut, crying for homeless everyday.

i can sense that many forumer are wish to earn big buck, especially in property, otherwise won't lepak here, it's sad that many good talker were miss the chance whereas their young cousin who know nothing much can made 100k or 200k for the past.

my friend, earning big buck is not how well you can talk, is combination of your experience, your courage, the timing, your patient, your luck, your connection etc..

李嘉诚:-

文憑不過是一張車票,
碩士是高鐵,
大學是自強號,
專科是普通車,
高中是站票。
到站後,都下車找工作,
才發現老闆並不太關心你是怎麼來的,
只關心你會做什麼。
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Friend, what makes you think I don't earn big bucks? Or bigger bucks? Lol!!! How you know I don't have field experience? Aisey... Sometimes you have to take yourself out of your own world.... There's more than one way to make loads of cash... Just depends on the risk you're willing to take, but doesn't mean that you'll make less if you take less risks either.

Anyway, buy more talk less ... Prices going up man, why waste time talk about past field experience talk present la.
Rooney1985
post Mar 26 2013, 07:32 PM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Mar 26 2013, 07:22 PM)
True, winning is not just the knowledge. You need experience, courage to take some risk, knowing the timing, controlling emotions, patient and lucky and lotsa lotsa luck (religious people called this "Blessings").

In Malaysia, and since we are mostly ordinary Malaysians, you need CONNECTIONS to get something "more" than the other. Everywhere is like that too, but different ways of getting connections. 

I feel Malaysians have been complaining too much these days. They complain yet they don't find a remedy for themselves - other than gosipping it all over their social networks.

Generally, Malaysians are also pampered. They want everything CHEAP and FREE without knowing the cost to subsidy. They want information to come to them like rain dropping from sky - without knowing how rain is formed. Example: "please PM me. Please PM me. Please PM me." If you PM them, they will ask: "please advice me. Please tell me can buy or not. Please tell me to buy."

Then, Malaysians are actually the most KIASU people now.
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Some view complaints as a negative and take it to heart. I rather see it as an opportunity (depending on the complaint). If its significant, it's telling us somethings wrong, if 1 out of a million complaining on one thing then can forget it la, if a large percentage are complaining the same thing... The we better find out what's wrong and look for opportunity rather than turn a deaf ear. With that said, please feel free to complain and feedback... smile.gif
Rooney1985
post Mar 26 2013, 09:30 PM

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QUOTE(kradun @ Mar 26 2013, 08:59 PM)
Listen to what people complaint is good, but simply because of too many people complaint then u are sure something is wrong not really make sense as 1 of the important rule in invesment is "never blindly listen to the crowd".
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That's why I said after you hear so many people complain about the same thing then you FIND out what's wrong lo... Never ask you to blindly follow wink.gif read clearly before jumping please, thanks.

This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Mar 26 2013, 09:48 PM
Rooney1985
post Mar 26 2013, 09:32 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Mar 26 2013, 08:30 PM)
What's your present plan? Waiting for opportunity drop from the sky?
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My current and future plan is ... Noyb... wink.gif prices going up... Buy buy buy faster... smile.gif
Rooney1985
post Mar 26 2013, 10:34 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Mar 26 2013, 09:49 PM)
That's a good plan baby
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??? Okay... Lol!

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