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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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cleo87
post Mar 28 2011, 09:35 AM

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QUOTE(DaveMustaine @ Mar 28 2011, 09:04 AM)
This is indeed a very bad news to everybody. Property prices are already high and yet people will find it harder to get loan. rclxub.gif
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so no one can get loan, no one can afford to buy, speculators will have to bring down their price to the range which people can afford. auto correction. yay!
prody
post Mar 28 2011, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Mar 26 2011, 11:24 PM)
Despite the alarm being raised on the amount of debt households are carrying, data indicate it's not a problem for the financial system as much of those loans are back by collateral and the assets of households are more than double their debts.

Malaysian cepat lupa or Human cepat lupa??? it is a known fact that the U.S financial crisis is caused by the housing market, the value of the so call collateral (properties) or assets that backing the loans declined significantly during crisis time. The collaterals were of course valued more than the mortgage loans when the banks decided to lend , the value only dropped sharply when crisis kicked in shakehead.gif
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Think you are hitting the nail right on the head here.
TheDoer
post Mar 28 2011, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Mar 25 2011, 09:06 PM)
if complain king, u wil say the cup is half empty   doh.gif 
if positive mindset, u wil say it is half full  laugh.gif
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You're right, if you can't beat them, join them. The world is not perfect, lets exploit it.


QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Mar 25 2011, 09:06 PM)
since they got no balls to buy now, y would they even hav balls to buy when shit cums?
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It's called a 'home' for a reason. So what if your home is worth much less than you paid for? It's still your home. But your investment, now that's a different story.

If balls are needed, then it's a gamble. Why gamble with your "home"? That's crazy. Buy only what we can afford. Conclusion right now... cannot afford. It's not gambling.

This post has been edited by TheDoer: Mar 28 2011, 10:22 AM
WannaGetBuffed
post Mar 28 2011, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ Mar 28 2011, 09:44 AM)
Think you are hitting the nail right on the head here.
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I just watched the inside job. Being an investor myself, I do agree we need to be very careful. I don't live in a world of my own and I think it is wise to take precautions. Most will not realize how serious is the problem until reality hits hard.

Household debt is indeed worrying, and I think the G and BNM is also playing a part on this. 40% of the household debt goes into the property sector. CC only has 15% of the debt (If the reports from THESTAR is true, and the figure is not massaged to look good). They should be doing more to cool it down, instead the deal with the 15% of the problem instead of the 40%. Get what I mean?

We are very dependent on a lot of external factors, when they shake, we shake. Don't forget. One day, when the worse comes, we might have earthquake as well.

I think everyone should take heed and if you do not know how the US financial collapsed, do rent the movie and take a look at it. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1645089/


AVFAN
post Mar 28 2011, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ Mar 28 2011, 11:19 AM)
I just watched the inside job. Being an investor myself, I do agree we need to be very careful. I don't live in a world of my own and I think it is wise to take precautions. Most will not realize how serious is the problem until reality hits hard.

even after watching it, some will say, "nah... we're special, we're different, we're safe".
if usa gomen can allow such things, any reason to think gomen here is more prudent?
wwwcomment
post Mar 28 2011, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 28 2011, 11:36 AM)
even after watching it, some will say, "nah... we're special, we're different, we're safe".
if usa gomen can allow such things, any reason to think gomen here is more prudent?
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you tot those "invetsors / flippers" here do not know meh?
why do u think they keep trying to convince ppll say those who dare not purchase now are idiots?
they are creating a sentiment so that thier "investment" can sustain and can let go of their properties before it is too late.
they are smart. icon_rolleyes.gif

DaveMustaine
post Mar 28 2011, 01:45 PM

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QUOTE(wwwcomment @ Mar 28 2011, 12:56 PM)
you tot those "invetsors / flippers" here do not know meh?
why do u think they keep trying to convince ppll say those who dare not purchase now are idiots?
they are creating a sentiment so that thier "investment" can sustain and can let go of their properties before it is too late.
they are smart.  icon_rolleyes.gif
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I'm a real house buyer. I will try to convince you guys to buy a house now. Not from the speculators but from developers themselves. It will surely be min 30k-50k cheaper. From my recent experience, I was kicked out of my rent house after one year rent, just becoz the owner want to make 150k profit thru the subsale. Now I have to find another house in the same area (becoz my kids are studying here) and it cost me RM300 more shocking.gif . It was like..what the hell??..my rent is now almost like a house monthly installment?
Should I wait for the rent to go down or buy a new house? I don't like to gamble so I just bought myself a new house (which is a little bit further from where I'm staying now) icon_rolleyes.gif .

This post has been edited by DaveMustaine: Mar 28 2011, 01:47 PM
alien505
post Mar 28 2011, 04:02 PM

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QUOTE(DaveMustaine @ Mar 28 2011, 01:45 PM)
I'm a real house buyer. I will try to convince you guys to buy a house now. Not from the speculators but from developers themselves. It will surely be min 30k-50k cheaper. From my recent experience, I was kicked out of my rent house after one year rent, just becoz the owner want to make 150k profit thru the subsale. Now I have to find another house in the same area (becoz my kids are studying here) and it cost me RM300 more  shocking.gif . It was like..what the hell??..my rent is now almost like a house monthly installment?
Should I wait for the rent to go down or buy a new house? I don't like to gamble so I just bought myself a new house (which is a little bit further from where I'm staying now) icon_rolleyes.gif .
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Hi cherroy,

did u bought subsale or new from developers? care to share the location?
godutch
post Mar 28 2011, 04:27 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 27 2011, 11:07 AM)
It doesn't threaten the financial system if collateral is backing those loan.
Also, Malaysia doesn't have subprime loan, although banks are lending a lot, this still be done by screening on personal income, although the screening process is relaxed a lot compared to old day.

We have pocket of properties bubble around, mainly in prime location, not across the nation.
Just over the sea of Penang, a terrace house cost 700-800k, can easily get a similar one at around 300K+ only.

It has some difference, Malaysia financial market still rather conservative, we don't have exotic derivatives of MBS, CDS, that is one of major reason why financial crisis occurred.

Personal loan, credit car loan are major concern.
With SRR is expected to go up further, cheaper house loan may be the past especially those like BLR -2% one.

It is human cepat lupa.
See how 2008 financial crisis is totally being forgotten already, financial market "party" again.
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i think we have to get things right. It is the bad collaterals that caused the financial crisis, not the derivatives products. The significant drop in the value of the collateral is what caused the derivatives market to plunge, increasing couterparty and settlement risks. And why many financial institutions got caught was mainly a result of their overly opmitistics view on the outlook of the housing market ~~
cherroy
post Mar 28 2011, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Mar 28 2011, 04:27 PM)
i think we have to get things right. It is the bad collaterals that caused the financial crisis, not the derivatives products. The significant drop in the value of the collateral is what caused the derivatives market to plunge, increasing couterparty and settlement risks. And why many financial institutions got caught was mainly a result of their overly opmitistics view on the outlook of the housing market ~~
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Those derivatives magnify the problem.

Imagine you are the bankers, you loan out mortgage, you also scare the borrower cannot pay up through the income.
That's why bankers always need to screen the borrower profile, income ability.
But with those derivatives and mortgages can be securitised, you can sell off your mortgages to third party, and pass all the risk to the third party.
So bankers can give as much loan as they can. Who care about the borrower can pay up the loan or not, the bankers the making the loan is not taking the risk of it, but third party that bought those MBS.

No matter how, if it is purely on bad collaterals alone, the situation is not that severe until the whole financial market freeze out.
It is those derivatives that magnify the situation and nobody know what's in their book.
Nobody knows who can go under, who not, so entire financial market freeze out, nobody dare to lend to each other, because nobody know who getting what card.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 28 2011, 04:47 PM
godutch
post Mar 28 2011, 07:17 PM

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QUOTE(DaveMustaine @ Mar 28 2011, 01:45 PM)
I'm a real house buyer. I will try to convince you guys to buy a house now. Not from the speculators but from developers themselves. It will surely be min 30k-50k cheaper. From my recent experience, I was kicked out of my rent house after one year rent, just becoz the owner want to make 150k profit thru the subsale. Now I have to find another house in the same area (becoz my kids are studying here) and it cost me RM300 more  shocking.gif . It was like..what the hell??..my rent is now almost like a house monthly installment?
Should I wait for the rent to go down or buy a new house? I don't like to gamble so I just bought myself a new house (which is a little bit further from where I'm staying now) icon_rolleyes.gif .
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Hi Dave, i feel for you and i think you made a good decision to get your family a home coz paying RM300 more a month, you own the house, so, if i were you also i would buy. but i think for most of the people who are still waiting like myself, 1) we need a home but we can afford to still wait coz the urgency is not there yet, 2) the monthly installment is well more than RM300 that you mentioned. Buying for own stay is different from buying for investment, if can afford and like the house, by all means grap it biggrin.gif


Added on March 28, 2011, 7:19 pm
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 28 2011, 11:36 AM)
even after watching it, some will say, "nah... we're special, we're different, we're safe".
if usa gomen can allow such things, any reason to think gomen here is more prudent?
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LOL, good one!!
biggrin.gif typical excuses used by malaysian when got questioned about something unreasonable.

This post has been edited by godutch: Mar 28 2011, 07:19 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 28 2011, 09:49 PM

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QUOTE(DaveMustaine @ Mar 28 2011, 01:45 PM)
I'm a real house buyer. I will try to convince you guys to buy a house now. Not from the speculators but from developers themselves. It will surely be min 30k-50k cheaper. From my recent experience, I was kicked out of my rent house after one year rent, just becoz the owner want to make 150k profit thru the subsale. Now I have to find another house in the same area (becoz my kids are studying here) and it cost me RM300 more  shocking.gif . It was like..what the hell??..my rent is now almost like a house monthly installment?
Should I wait for the rent to go down or buy a new house? I don't like to gamble so I just bought myself a new house (which is a little bit further from where I'm staying now) icon_rolleyes.gif .
*
i feel for you and understand too. in yr case, it is out of need and not speculation. for that, anytime is a good time as long as you have thought through, can afford it and will live there to enjoy the benefits as planned. based on my last home purchase at some peak, just be prepared in the event you do not get more than 10% cap appr in the next 10 years. not pouring cold water, but better be informed rather than be shocked unnecessarily.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 28 2011, 09:50 PM
super911
post Mar 29 2011, 08:05 AM

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Invest in property in just like investing in stock market. You never know when is the peak or when is the bottom. As long as you buy blue chips, you are fine. Even if price really dive down like what Maybank, Public Bank, Genting did in 1997 & 2008, it will shoot up again once economy recover. Only those that bought lousy company or use margin to invest will have big hard time. So invest prudently, don't over leverage, buy prime location, you are safe and can have good sleep even if market crash.
cybermaster98
post Mar 29 2011, 08:12 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 28 2011, 04:47 PM)
Those derivatives magnify the problem.

Imagine you are the bankers, you loan out mortgage, you also scare the borrower cannot pay up through the income.
That's why bankers always need to screen the borrower profile, income ability.
But with those derivatives and mortgages can be securitised, you can sell off your mortgages to third party, and pass all the risk to the third party.
So bankers can give as much loan as they can. Who care about the borrower can pay up the loan or not, the bankers the making the loan is not taking the risk of it, but third party that bought those MBS.

No matter how, if it is purely on bad collaterals alone, the situation is not that severe until the whole financial market freeze out.
It is those derivatives that magnify the situation and nobody know what's in their book.
Nobody knows who can go under, who not, so entire financial market freeze out, nobody dare to lend to each other, because nobody know who getting what card.
When i purchased my property in 2009 it cost RM470K. But now it can easily fetch RM 650-680K based on similar transacted deals in the same area. Would you recommend i refinance? My current 90% loan is for 15 years so balance another 13 years.
22222222
post Mar 29 2011, 09:41 AM

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Our housing deputy minister said that Government is no way to control property price, how is your think?

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/159919
SUSUFO-ET
post Mar 29 2011, 10:05 AM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ Mar 29 2011, 09:41 AM)
Our housing deputy minister said that Government is no way to control property price, how is your think?

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/159919
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Of coursi, our dear ministers, Datuk-datuk & politicians are the giant speculators, they are not like you and me, owning 0-10 properties, but hundreds, they are the group who worry the most on price dropping brows.gif
22222222
post Mar 29 2011, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Mar 29 2011, 10:05 AM)
Of coursi, our dear ministers, Datuk-datuk & politicians are the giant speculators, they are not like you and me, owning 0-10 properties, but hundreds, they are the group who worry the most on price dropping brows.gif
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Yaloh so sad to all poor malaysian, later oni can rent "room" for them......i think is the time to let them "fall from the horse".

Boycott to buy condo/Service apartment > 250k, single storey > 300k, Dbl story > 500k, Superlink House > 750k, Semi D > 1m and bungalo > 2.5m laugh.gif
Beth79
post Mar 29 2011, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ Mar 29 2011, 11:02 AM)
Yaloh so sad to all poor malaysian, later oni can rent "room" for them......i think is the time to let them "fall from the horse".

Boycott to buy condo/Service apartment > 250k, single storey > 300k, Dbl story > 500k, Superlink House > 750k, Semi D > 1m and bungalo > 2.5m  laugh.gif
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hahahaha, kawan, like that no property to buy in prime areas already lor tongue.gif
roughfeei88
post Mar 29 2011, 02:33 PM

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I think fresh graduates nowadays with salary below 3k can make 100% percent loan is it? Usually, how much is the interest rate?
cherroy
post Mar 29 2011, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Mar 29 2011, 08:12 AM)
When i purchased my property in 2009 it cost RM470K. But now it can easily fetch RM 650-680K based on similar transacted deals in the same area. Would you recommend i refinance? My current 90% loan is for 15 years so balance another 13 years.
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Why you want or need to refinance?
I believe the mortgage rate you were getting 2009 time, is pretty low.

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