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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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alhs76
post Mar 25 2011, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Mar 25 2011, 04:24 PM)
oKAY...let's us awaiting for property prices' drop. also wait for food and beverage prices' drop. also wait for rental of rooms drop. Also for petrol prices' drop. also utility bills drop.

thumbup.gif
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rclxms.gif i had those in my dreams last night! tongue.gif thumbup.gif whistling.gif


kh8668
post Mar 25 2011, 04:31 PM

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QUOTE(alhs76 @ Mar 25 2011, 04:29 PM)
rclxms.gif i had those in my dreams last night!  tongue.gif  thumbup.gif  whistling.gif
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Lol....let's us dream more! But also dream of our pay hike..not drop...kekekeke thumbup.gif
Iceman74
post Mar 25 2011, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Mar 25 2011, 04:24 PM)
oKAY...let's us awaiting for property prices' drop. also wait for food and beverage prices' drop. also wait for rental of rooms drop. Also for petrol prices' drop. also utility bills drop.

thumbup.gif
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our income drop first b4 can dream seeing this tongue.gif
CKHong
post Mar 25 2011, 04:43 PM

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no no.. income won't drop
why need relate with prop with income ? thou it will relate a bit.. but not necessary ma..
props drop.. ppl declaring bankrupt will be increase

if subsale is not doing well for 1 year.. i think property will drop biggrin.gif or just stay at same price hehe..
after that we just wait for them to sell it cheaper.. without jacking up the price.. at least follow market value..

This post has been edited by CKHong: Mar 25 2011, 04:46 PM
TheDoer
post Mar 25 2011, 04:50 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Mar 25 2011, 04:43 PM)
no no.. income won't drop
why need relate with prop with income ? thou it will relate a bit.. but not necessary ma..
props drop.. ppl declaring bankrupt will be increase
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Ya, have to agree with you. Do we really rely on speculators for our own rice bowl? Perhaps now there will be less people going vacation abroad? Speculators can dump their props on the market, but they will continue to spend on their necessities.
kok_pun
post Mar 25 2011, 05:00 PM

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i dreamed of salary rise, bonus x2, ringgit rise and promotion.......

but property stay at the same price
CKHong
post Mar 25 2011, 06:17 PM

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oh oh.. if salary rise..
i dun even give a dam props price now biggrin.gif
hidden830726
post Mar 25 2011, 07:15 PM

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I believe with earthquake, tsunami, radiation, wars at Libya etc, many investor / buyer getting more skeptical. + last year 70% loan, the BBB mode this 1st quarter might be just the hype by developer. I might be wrong, since i dont have data to back me up.

Still, if the prop is right, then no harm buying. Lets be positive.

This post has been edited by hidden830726: Mar 25 2011, 07:19 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 25 2011, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Mar 25 2011, 03:03 PM)
whether prices is gonna come down or not, let's look at what's happening around us:
property that i could remember that was launched this year so far:
1. summer suites, sunrise
2. capers, ytl
3. KM1, berjaya
4. the Arc in cyberjaya, andaman
5. mirage by the lake, OSK
6. serin residency
7. fraser's suite
8. the place @ Cyberjaya
9. a bunch of projects on jalan puchong, okr
so far, not even a hint of it slowing down but instead, they are grabbing as if it's the last development on earth!
bubble or not, u decide lor.
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u r rite... buy one each this wkend, make 200k each by 2014, can retire with 2mil. tongue.gif

incredible that all the warnings on inflation, int rates, rpgt not deterring some. devs and banks may be ruthlessly greedy, but buyers have a choice.

n u r rite again - bubble or not, choose wisely. either you believe all is good, easy money is out there to make or you believe the sensitivity is now heightened, the "crash" may come anytime now.

best might be to stay neutral - just buy for own stay and/or what you can hold, not leveraged until u need to abscond when the shix hits the fan.
sulifeisgreat
post Mar 25 2011, 09:06 PM

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yes nod.gif there r new grad coming out to work every year
otherwise wat is our local uni for? how abt those colleges with so many students enrollment?
I rent to those new grads, few years back was $1200, now $1700, iproperty says the fake asking rent is $2k rclxub.gif
after 1 to 2 years, they leave & new suckers.. I mean new grads come again to rent (its really all abt location3)

my advise to all those former tenants, is work hard, think smart, save enough & buy your own tongue.gif
bad debt or good debt. it depends on ur perception, of the glass filled half with water mocking story
if complain king, u wil say the cup is half empty doh.gif
if positive mindset, u wil say it is half full laugh.gif

& wat is mean by 'genuine home buyers', when I no intention of selling shakehead.gif
buy, refinance, buy, refinance, buy, refinance until the shit hits the fan
by tat time, we r all in deep shit & those who r waiting, wil be saving even more as they scare of chicken little
since they got no balls to buy now, y would they even hav balls to buy when shit cums?




airline
post Mar 26 2011, 01:16 AM

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QUOTE(chubbyken @ Mar 25 2011, 02:12 PM)
developer is the ultimate winner
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developer and real estate agents ultimate winner.
SUSUFO-ET
post Mar 26 2011, 04:09 AM

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QUOTE(wee1030 @ Mar 25 2011, 03:32 PM)
tomorrow property price will drop -- this is what i will say everyday!  ^^  ---- before sleep !!
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thumbup.gif The best sentence of this thread!! +1+1+1!!!
alien505
post Mar 26 2011, 07:52 AM

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In the end..its all just a dream..sigh dry.gif
SUSNew Klang
post Mar 26 2011, 04:32 PM

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QUOTE(hidden830726 @ Mar 25 2011, 07:15 PM)
I believe with earthquake, tsunami, radiation, wars at Libya etc, many investor / buyer getting more skeptical. + last year 70% loan, the BBB mode this 1st quarter might be just the hype by developer. I might be wrong, since i dont have data to back me up.

Still, if the prop is right, then no harm buying. Lets be positive.
*
Due to all of the above, the property market already started to slow down. It would be good news to those long term investors.
KLsooner
post Mar 26 2011, 07:23 PM

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CPI is 2.9% announced by BNM, unofficial figure definately is higher, FD is 2.7%-2.75%.

If BNM does not raise BLR, more money will goes into property as nobody want to sit and see the hard earn money being eat up by inflation.

So expect BLR to rise, if not property price will continue to raise. Either way, it is not a good news for those who are shooping for property.


godutch
post Mar 26 2011, 11:24 PM

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http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f.../20110325080522

Loans likely to lessen


Bank Negara new measures seen helpful in the long term

By YVONNE TAN and SHARIDAN M. ALI

starbiz@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Bank Negara's new measures to inculcate responsible lending by banks to retail customers is expected to impact the quantum of credit disbursement as weaker borrowers would be rendered ineligible.

However, in the long term, these measures would be helpful to support the stability of the banking sector as it would limit the banking sector's exposure to weak borrowers who are more likely to default in “times of stress”, analysts said.


“It is encouraging to note that Bank Negara is introducing these steps as a pre-emptive measure to address rising household sector debt levels,” said Malaysian Rating Corp Bhd vice-president/head of financial institutions ratings Anandakumar Jegarasasingam.

On Wednesday, the central bank said individual borrowers would be subjected to a stress test to gauge if they could afford a new loan once guidelines are introduced in the third quarter of this year.

Among others, borrowers would be stress-tested in the event interest rates were to rise by 100 to 200 basis points from the time the loan is applied.

Malaysia's household debt rose at a rapid rate of 11.1% per annum from 2004 to 2009; and from RM516.6bil at end-2009, it climbed by 8.4% to RM560.1bil as at end-August 2010, according to data by CIMB Research.

The household debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio increased from 66.7% in 2004 to 76% in 2009 but is estimated to ease to 74.6% at end-2010.

Nevertheless, compared to the entire banking sector's NPL ratio of around 3.1%, the household sector's NPL ratio stood at 2.3% at end-2010.

“Anecdotal evidence suggests that bankers are focusing more on the underlying collateral, especially for mortgages and auto loans.

“However, collateral are an eventual source of repayment during default and not an immediate source of repayment. As a result of this focus, the actual debt servicing ability of the household sector, as reflected by its disposable income, has often not been looked at in detail during credit assessments.

"The proposed guidelines would fill this gap and thereby improve the quality of credit assessments done by banks,” said Jegarasasingam.

The Real Estate and Housing Developers' Association Malaysia (Rehda) president Datuk Michael Yam said the new guidelines were a signal to the banks to be “less exuberant” in their lending.

“But banks in Malaysia are generally stable and have their own ways to curb defaults,” he said.

Yam said he was confident that the “feel-good momentum” in the property market from last year would continue into this year.

CIMB chief economist Lee Heng Guie said Bank Negara's introduction of the latest measures was a good mov e to keep household debts at a sustainable level and to avoid a systemic risk to the entire banking system.

The central bank has gradually introduced macro prudential measures when needed to nip in the bud any buildup of future problems in the country.

It introduced a maximum loan-tovalue ratio of 70% for people wanting to buy their third house or more and recently clamped down the availability of easy credit to the low income group by raising the minimum income to RM24,000 from RM18,000 for credit cards.

But one area of abundant credit has been coming from co-operatives which have been lending vast sums of money to civil servants, and the upcoming new lending affordability rules might be extended to institutions not regulated by the central bank.

Despite the alarm being raised on the amount of debt households are carrying, data indicate it's not a problem for the financial system as much of those loans are back by collateral and the assets of households are more than double their debts.

Malaysian cepat lupa or Human cepat lupa??? it is a known fact that the U.S financial crisis is caused by the housing market, the value of the so call collateral (properties) or assets that backing the loans declined significantly during crisis time. The collaterals were of course valued more than the mortgage loans when the banks decided to lend , the value only dropped sharply when crisis kicked in shakehead.gif

This post has been edited by godutch: Mar 26 2011, 11:34 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 26 2011, 11:51 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Mar 26 2011, 11:24 PM)
Despite the alarm being raised on the amount of debt households are carrying, data indicate it's not a problem for the financial system as much of those loans are back by collateral and the assets of households are more than double their debts.

Malaysian cepat lupa or Human cepat lupa??? it is a known fact that the U.S financial crisis is caused by the housing market, the value of the so call collateral (properties) or assets that backing the loans declined significantly during crisis time. The collaterals were of course valued more than the mortgage loans when the banks decided to lend , the value only dropped sharply when crisis kicked in shakehead.gif
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not only usa. same thing in iceland, ireland, greece and portugal.
think about it, that explanation can only be true. becos if it isn't, how can there ever be a collapse in prop mkt n prices?
since so many countries have been thru it, it does seem to say some gomens turn a blind eye for reasons best known to themselves.
who ends up losing and paying the most is less clear.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 26 2011, 11:58 PM
cherroy
post Mar 27 2011, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Mar 26 2011, 11:24 PM)
Despite the alarm being raised on the amount of debt households are carrying, data indicate it's not a problem for the financial system as much of those loans are back by collateral and the assets of households are more than double their debts.

Malaysian cepat lupa or Human cepat lupa??? it is a known fact that the U.S financial crisis is caused by the housing market, the value of the so call collateral (properties) or assets that backing the loans declined significantly during crisis time. The collaterals were of course valued more than the mortgage loans when the banks decided to lend , the value only dropped sharply when crisis kicked in shakehead.gif
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It doesn't threaten the financial system if collateral is backing those loan.
Also, Malaysia doesn't have subprime loan, although banks are lending a lot, this still be done by screening on personal income, although the screening process is relaxed a lot compared to old day.

We have pocket of properties bubble around, mainly in prime location, not across the nation.
Just over the sea of Penang, a terrace house cost 700-800k, can easily get a similar one at around 300K+ only.

It has some difference, Malaysia financial market still rather conservative, we don't have exotic derivatives of MBS, CDS, that is one of major reason why financial crisis occurred.

Personal loan, credit car loan are major concern.
With SRR is expected to go up further, cheaper house loan may be the past especially those like BLR -2% one.

It is human cepat lupa.
See how 2008 financial crisis is totally being forgotten already, financial market "party" again.
SUSUFO-ET
post Mar 27 2011, 11:56 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 27 2011, 11:07 AM)
It doesn't threaten the financial system if collateral is backing those loan.
Also, Malaysia doesn't have subprime loan, although banks are lending a lot, this still be done by screening on personal income, although the screening process is relaxed a lot compared to old day.

We have pocket of properties bubble around, mainly in prime location, not across the nation.
Just over the sea of Penang, a terrace house cost 700-800k, can easily get a similar one at around 300K+ only.

It has some difference, Malaysia financial market still rather conservative, we don't have exotic derivatives of MBS, CDS, that is one of major reason why financial crisis occurred.

Personal loan, credit car loan are major concern.
With SRR is expected to go up further, cheaper house loan may be the past especially those like BLR -2% one.

It is human cepat lupa.
See how 2008 financial crisis is totally being forgotten already, financial market "party" again.
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+1 well say
DaveMustaine
post Mar 28 2011, 09:04 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Mar 27 2011, 11:56 AM)
+1 well say
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This is indeed a very bad news to everybody. Property prices are already high and yet people will find it harder to get loan. rclxub.gif

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