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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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thk38
post Mar 9 2011, 12:58 AM

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QUOTE(epie @ Mar 8 2011, 07:53 PM)
freddie mac and fannie mae in the making...
CKHong
post Mar 9 2011, 09:25 AM

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QUOTE
Malaysia's household debt rose at a rapid rate of 11.1% per annum from 2004 to 2009, and from RM516.6bil at end-2009, it climbed by 8.4% to RM560.1bil as at end-August 2010, said CIMB Research.

The household debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio increased from 66.7% in 2004 to 76% in 2009 but is estimated to ease to 74.6% at end-2010.

The rapid growth of household borrowings is causing some worries that the excessive leveraging by households may make the economy and financial sector more vulnerable to instability and crisis.
more info
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...12&sec=business

jib3000
post Mar 9 2011, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Mar 8 2011, 02:04 PM)
OOT.  This will reduce the money supply. But will it really reduce inflation?

I mean, even if cash is hard to come by, and the mamak, uses the same excuse that sugar naik, and increase his prices, and every other sectors followed. Then it would appear that inflation isn't effected, instead the lack money in the system will cause bank negara to print more money or reduce the SRR again?

I donno. Just asking.
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im not sure whether it wil work or not .. but in jan & feb, China increase the OPR & SRR to reduce the inflation and to cool down the hot property market overthere.. its also instructed a few banks to be more selective in providing loans to consumer ... to control property price from going up...
lucerne
post Mar 9 2011, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(IMHO @ Mar 8 2011, 01:12 PM)
I would say in Japan the prices had reached a level much higher then the cost of construction... that is why it is at current levels in relation to cost...our current property prices are partly due to speculation...
Buyers/Investors should be smart and apply a bench mark and not just accept what the market offer... developers are all going highend bcos they can charge premium prices...and buyer are supporting such high prices...which are going to be like Japan in 1981.
Just my bench mark:-
in year 2000 price of land leasehold rm35 psf...now rm80-120psf.
it is reasonable if u factor in the landscape, roads, etc, provided by the housing scheme.
for building in 2000 , rm 80-150psf...now rm200-280psf...and material n labour cost only up 20-30%.
this indicate that the prices are at a high premium for developers..
and they are making a killing...

so when the buying stops the killing stops...
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maybe now developers have to feed more $$ to the corrupted officials vs those old days. seems bribes also inflation oso coz need more $ to show off their posh lifestyle mah. look at the bali styled khir and zakaria mansions!! these are just tips of the iceberg!!
i oso heard some developers need to build school, masjid, flyover, bridge, widen the main or access road etc for the govt.
AVFAN
post Mar 9 2011, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Mar 9 2011, 09:25 AM)
this is actuali v impt, an indication of the "bubble", not the 1st time this data is made public, but the upupup people will ignore it.

QUOTE
Certainly, rising property prices have fanned an increase in borrowings. The share of household loans to total bank loans rose from 35.2% in 2000 to 55.5% as at end-August 2010. Mortgage debt accounts for 48.5% of total household loans currently.

High levels of household debt may also constrain the effectiveness of monetary policy as it heightens the sensitivity of households' behaviour to changes in interest rates,” he added

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cherroy
post Mar 9 2011, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(thk38 @ Mar 9 2011, 12:58 AM)
freddie mac and fannie mae in the making...
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Ya, have the same feeling... sweat.gif
jib3000
post Mar 9 2011, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(epie @ Mar 8 2011, 07:53 PM)
i think it also hard for them to buy house since most of people nowdays got personal loan and credit card debt to service... in addition to car loan and education loan..
cherroy
post Mar 9 2011, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Mar 8 2011, 10:01 PM)
the news is for those stay outside of KV, penang & JB.  tongue.gif
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Out of prime area, properties price is not escalating as in prime area.

My family members try to sell a corner terrace house in mainland Butterworth area, roughly 300K also little people interested and hard to find buyers.
They bought 200k+ decade ago, now only 300k, where got make money? if view it from investment pov.

But just over the sea, at Penang island, a 20 x 60 terrace house can fetch 700-800k.
lucerne
post Mar 9 2011, 05:04 PM

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for landed prop, it is difficult to rent out if it is out of town. so they normally refused to invest. at least they can have some rental to cover their monthly installment.
IMHO
post Mar 10 2011, 08:15 AM

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household loans go up up up

maybe due to gov clamp down on "loan sharks" and
easy to get advance from banks.. brows.gif

This post has been edited by IMHO: Mar 10 2011, 08:17 AM
SUSUFO-ET
post Mar 10 2011, 09:23 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 9 2011, 03:47 PM)
Out of prime area, properties price is not escalating as in prime area.

My family members try to sell a corner terrace house in mainland Butterworth area, roughly 300K also little people interested and hard to find buyers.
They bought 200k+ decade ago, now only 300k, where got make money? if view it from investment pov.

But just over the sea, at Penang island, a 20 x 60 terrace house can fetch 700-800k.
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"scarcity in land"
Onemorething
post Mar 10 2011, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 8 2011, 09:55 PM)
Only for price between Rm100K to RM220k
Little on overall, except properties below Rm220k may be snapped up by speculators.  tongue.gif

For prime area, or any prime adjacent, I can't see any property with RM250K below.
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Government enabling the everyone the in the pool scenario! You know what this means do you?

Consolidation Bubble Forming! Freddie Fanny stuff. The bank always wins!
KLsooner
post Mar 10 2011, 11:24 AM

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Now, no matter rich or poor, all got yourselves tide up with property loan. I can smell subprime is in the cooking.

let the bubble blow, bank got into trouble and then government come into rescue.

This post has been edited by KLsooner: Mar 10 2011, 11:26 AM
Randomization
post Mar 10 2011, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE
KUALA LUMPUR: The Real Estate and Housing Developers' Association Malaysia (Rehda) expects property prices to increase up to 20% in the next six months.

Its president Datuk Michael Yam said on Thursday, Mar 10 the general increase in prices would be due to higher building material and land costs.  Material costs increase by 5% to 10% annually.


Bad news

CKHong
post Mar 10 2011, 02:23 PM

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OMG !!
increase again !! malaysian citizen will have to rent house for the rest of their lives..
high income nation need to sacrifice 90% of malaysians...
after 6 month.. if reli increase 20%.. i dun think got many malaysian buy those props lur.. all props need to sell to foreigners..
then foreigner will help us push our economy..
if reli up 20% in 6 month then i straight buy a flat which will cost me 300k .. or maybe i just get a double storey house in my kampung better..
hmm.. higher land cost.. izzit gomen too poor until have to sell those land pricey ?
they going to increase amanah saham rite ? forgot where i read that b4.. our gomen veli cham.. sad.gif

This post has been edited by CKHong: Mar 10 2011, 02:27 PM
noproblem
post Mar 10 2011, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Mar 10 2011, 02:23 PM)
OMG !!
increase again !! malaysian citizen will have to rent house for the rest of their lives.. 
high income nation need to sacrifice 90% of malaysians...
after 6 month.. if reli increase 20%.. i dun think got many malaysian buy those props lur.. all props need to sell to foreigners..
then foreigner will help us push our economy.. 
if reli up 20% in 6 month then i straight buy a flat which will cost me 300k .. or maybe i just get a double storey house in my kampung better..
hmm.. higher land cost.. izzit gomen too poor until have to sell those land pricey ?
they going to increase amanah saham rite ? forgot where i read that b4..  our gomen veli cham.. sad.gif
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haha of course increase...The Real Estate and Housing Developers' Association Malaysia (Rehda) will tell us property price going down in future? of course they won't... property developers want to increase price sure got excuses... raw material/land costs/living expenses/not enough profit/not enough racing cars/etc... until government do something on policy or market really can't sustain (maybe household debt 150/200%?) else you won't see it drop...
CKHong
post Mar 10 2011, 04:06 PM

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QUOTE(noproblem @ Mar 10 2011, 03:06 PM)
haha of course increase...The Real Estate and Housing Developers' Association Malaysia (Rehda) will tell us property price going down in future? of course they won't... property developers want to increase price sure got excuses... raw material/land costs/living expenses/not enough profit/not enough racing cars/etc... until government do something on policy or market really can't sustain (maybe household debt 150/200%?) else you won't see it drop...
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LOL... 200% household debt..
maybe by that time.. there will be another thread
title is " what is the best way to suicide "
20% of malaysian population straight decrease..
SUSahshuy
post Mar 10 2011, 04:17 PM

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so now d prime area is as high as RM1xxxpsf? shocking.gif

how are we gonna buy house for own stay?
TheDoer
post Mar 10 2011, 04:21 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Mar 10 2011, 04:06 PM)
LOL... 200% household debt..
maybe by that time.. there will be another thread
title is " what is the best way to suicide "
20% of malaysian population straight decrease..
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hahaha rclxms.gif


True.
wee1030
post Mar 10 2011, 04:44 PM

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From: Where 300 Spartans dine
next month will burst

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