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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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SUSUFO-ET
post Apr 19 2011, 07:50 PM

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QUOTE(rickkow @ Apr 19 2011, 07:30 PM)
don scare me pls.. Im goin to make some investment.. any good spot to introduce?


Added on April 19, 2011, 7:30 pm

don scare me pls.. Im goin to make some investment.. any good spot to introduce?
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Subang Bestari, could be another Bdr Kinrara

kochin
post Apr 19 2011, 09:48 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 19 2011, 07:50 PM)
Subang Bestari, could be another Bdr Kinrara
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now you make me think twice about letting my unit go. vmad.gif mad.gif cry.gif
prody
post Apr 19 2011, 10:02 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 19 2011, 07:50 PM)
Subang Bestari, could be another Bdr Kinrara
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What are the pros and cons for Subang Bestari?

airline
post Apr 19 2011, 10:38 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 19 2011, 07:50 PM)
Subang Bestari, could be another Bdr Kinrara
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can. wait for mah sing to go in...
blasto
post Apr 20 2011, 02:04 AM

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Dear guys, kindly advise what's the pros & cons impact of GST on real estate ?
Then in selling & buying ?
Since 2011 we got RPGT & what's hidden for 2012 ?

I tried surfing but did not found answer, hope you guys can help. icon_rolleyes.gif
kochin
post Apr 20 2011, 08:37 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ Apr 19 2011, 10:02 PM)
What are the pros and cons for Subang Bestari?
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please refer subang bestari thread or landed below 600k thread. i remember posting quite an elaborate pros and cons on it.
cybermaster98
post Apr 20 2011, 08:56 AM

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Prices are still going up for the prime areas for sure. I got an offer for my condo at Kiara Park, TTDI yesterday for RM 700K. My purchase price in May 2009 was only RM470K. Damn! Should have bought more.

Anyway, im looking to purchase another unit in Kiara Park. Any available?
SUSUFO-ET
post Apr 20 2011, 09:13 AM

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QUOTE(blasto @ Apr 20 2011, 02:04 AM)
Dear guys, kindly advise what's the pros & cons impact of GST on real estate ?
Then in selling & buying ? 
Since 2011 we got RPGT & what's hidden for 2012 ?

I tried surfing but did not found answer, hope you guys can help.  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
Only heavy RPGT will kill the property mkt, not GST
soongkm
post Apr 20 2011, 01:51 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 20 2011, 09:13 AM)
Only heavy RPGT will kill the property mkt, not GST
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Hi people, something to share with you all. A documentary on the China potential real estate bubble that may burst. China Ghost Cities and Malls:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E


noproblem
post Apr 20 2011, 02:38 PM

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QUOTE(soongkm @ Apr 20 2011, 01:51 PM)
Hi people, something to share with you all.  A documentary on the China potential real estate bubble that may burst.  China Ghost Cities and Malls:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E
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I can see more & more condo/shopping mall empty in Malaysia. Keep building please so I can get another cheaper unit soon. smile.gif
cranx
post Apr 20 2011, 02:41 PM

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QUOTE(noproblem @ Apr 20 2011, 02:38 PM)
I can see more & more condo/shopping mall empty in Malaysia. Keep building please so I can get another cheaper unit soon. smile.gif
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you are interested to buy retail unit in malls?
soongkm
post Apr 20 2011, 02:46 PM

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QUOTE(soongkm @ Apr 20 2011, 01:51 PM)
Hi people, something to share with you all.  A documentary on the China potential real estate bubble that may burst.  China Ghost Cities and Malls:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E
*
Can anyone tell me after watching the documentary clip on China Ghost Cities and Mall, that there is still no property bubble in China? Or China is a very meticulous planner and these cities are up and ready for the next 10 years so people can move in by then and it's all intended to be play out that way?

Come on! There is a property bubble in China and when it burst, the US subprime loan will be like a picnic in a park.
kochin
post Apr 20 2011, 02:50 PM

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QUOTE(soongkm @ Apr 20 2011, 02:46 PM)
Can anyone tell me after watching the documentary clip on China Ghost Cities and Mall, that there is still no property bubble in China?  Or China is a very meticulous planner and these cities are up and ready for the next 10 years so people can move in by then and it's all intended to be play out that way?

Come on!  There is a property bubble in China and when it burst, the US subprime loan will be like a picnic in a park.
*
you sure are a happy camper for bubbles, aren't you?
if there is a bubble, would you rate the bubble as overall in China or would you rate it as a localised bubble?
back home here, are you expecting a bubble throughout the nation or just klang valley?
pardon me, am not being sarcastic but just trying to pick your brain a little to see where you are coming from.

PS: if they do a mini documentary to SS2 mall, am sure it can scare away a whle lot of FDI.
soongkm
post Apr 20 2011, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 20 2011, 02:50 PM)
you sure are a happy camper for bubbles, aren't you?
if there is a bubble, would you rate the bubble as overall in China or would you rate it as a localised bubble?
back home here, are you expecting a bubble throughout the nation or just klang valley?
pardon me, am not being sarcastic but just trying to pick your brain a little to see where you are coming from.

PS: if they do a mini documentary to SS2 mall, am sure it can scare away a whle lot of FDI.
*
This is not a mini documentary on isolated cases. When there is 64 million empty units of condo in CHina, don't tell me this is normal...and if don't matter this 64 million units of empty condo is in which city...

wingcross
post Apr 20 2011, 03:10 PM

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I wish someone can post some youtube videos saying or dhows statistics that there wont be any property bubble in Malaysia.

kh8668
post Apr 20 2011, 03:18 PM

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QUOTE(wingcross @ Apr 20 2011, 03:10 PM)
I wish someone can post some youtube videos saying or dhows statistics that there wont be any property bubble in Malaysia.
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maybe we can start to list down all the reasons/evidences to support that there is/isn't a property bubble in Malaysian market, or focus more in Klang Valley (KV).

Yes! Property Bubble in KV. Reasons:
1) Hike in prices of newly launched property which is declining affordability of average Malaysian?
2)
3)


No! Property Bubble in KV. Reasons:
1) Large population and positive number of migration to KV each year (students / workers / Expats)?
2)
3)

SUSUFO-ET
post Apr 20 2011, 03:23 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 20 2011, 02:50 PM)
you sure are a happy camper for bubbles, aren't you?
if there is a bubble, would you rate the bubble as overall in China or would you rate it as a localised bubble?
back home here, are you expecting a bubble throughout the nation or just klang valley?
pardon me, am not being sarcastic but just trying to pick your brain a little to see where you are coming from.

PS: if they do a mini documentary to SS2 mall, am sure it can scare away a whle lot of FDI.
*
agree, quite hard to determine the real meaning of bubble, in what scale? what degree? There are many malls are empty without tenant occupancy throughout Malaysia for many years, can we say it is bubble? yes it is bubble for shopping mall category for that particular township at that particular time.
Look back Bandar Kinrara BK9, those low cost flat built by SPPK are mostly empty, yes again it is bubble already in Bdr Kinrara for low cost flat, not landed properties. But there are many landed properties already burst in Puchong i.e Putra Perdana
Look at Ara Damansara, the shops are bubble since 2008, not the landed properties. Crimson shops also bubble in Kelana Jaya but not the condos.
KLCC area, condos are bubble but not for shops

as I said, bubble was happening since 1990, different time in different sector at different area. If one to wait for whole property mkt collapse, I think susah a bit. cool2.gif

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Apr 20 2011, 03:24 PM
kochin
post Apr 20 2011, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(soongkm @ Apr 20 2011, 03:06 PM)
This is not a mini documentary on isolated cases.  When there is 64 million empty units of condo in CHina, don't tell me this is normal...and if don't matter this 64 million units of empty condo is in which city...
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you do strike me as a very emotional being.
ok, let's try to dissect a bit ok.
64 million empty condos. how many property overhang was under our latest report. i think we can get from jpph or something like that, right? please help, k? i thought it was 2 million overhang or something like that?
ok, let's compare some figures.
china 64 mil / 1 bil population vs malaysia 2mil / 26 mil population. is this correct method to compare, kah?

i did not go through the documentary (sorry) but may i know a few more points to the documentary:
1. when was it film?
2. when the filming of the mall took place (as in how long was it VP then the film crew shoot in it)? reason for me asking because can see a lot of construction materials lying around from my preliminary view of the documentary.

on a separate note, i remember when i first visited kota damansara dataran sunway. i can virtually parked in the middle of the road. shops was scarce. now it's jammed up.
then came the strand. it still is relatively empty so to speak. and the take up rate is quite slow (in terms of shops operating).
am not denying that a property bubble would not happen but would rather know why and how it happen.
thanks for sharing, man.
SUSwankongyew
post Apr 20 2011, 03:52 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 20 2011, 02:50 PM)
you sure are a happy camper for bubbles, aren't you?
if there is a bubble, would you rate the bubble as overall in China or would you rate it as a localised bubble?
Leaving aside the question of whether the bubble in China is localized or general (but at least you're already admitting that there is a bubble of some kind in China!) even if the bubble is localized, it has grave consequences for the economy. Quite clearly, the scale of the empty properties is vast so a very significant proportion of the Chinese economy seems to be devoted to building properties that are left unoccupied. How can this be a sustainable business model? These empty buildings are being bought up by speculators (no occupants remember?) so these companies can stay in business only so long as the speculators keep buying. Eventually this must stop and the companies must go out of business. Workers then lose their jobs. This is bad, bad news.

I think that the state-controlled banks in China are hiding huge loan books in the property sector for all sorts of projects that will never be profitable. It's great while the party lasts but you cannot keep a pyramid scheme going forever. Once the scheme fails, you're looking at the whole Chinese economy collapsing. Even if you're right that there is enough demand in key cities like Shanghai and Beijing to prevent the prices there from collapsing, this still isn't enough to save the Chinese economy as a whole. Construction is going on all over China, not just in the main cities, and it is because of all this construction that the Chinese economy is so vibrant. They are literally building bridges to nowhere.
wingcross
post Apr 20 2011, 03:56 PM

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here the transcripts for the youtube
http://www.sbs.com.au/dateline/story/trans...-s-Ghost-Cities

to answer kochin's,
the video should be taken this year - 20th March 2011, so i guess for the second q, it should be 2011 and if not proparbly 2010.


Added on April 20, 2011, 4:02 pm
QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 20 2011, 03:34 PM)
on a separate note, i remember when i first visited kota damansara dataran sunway. i can virtually parked in the middle of the road. shops was scarce. now it's jammed up.
then came the strand. it still is relatively empty so to speak. and the take up rate is quite slow (in terms of shops operating).
am not denying that a property bubble would not happen but would rather know why and how it happen.
thanks for sharing, man.
*
I just review the video from youtube amd see some similarity,

i can see the similar,
"His shop is a rare sight in the Great Mall. The majority of this vast shopping centre remains as empty as it did when it opened six years ago. Back then, developers boasted that it would become the world's biggest shopping mall, with plans for 1500 shops that would attract 70,000 shoppers a day - the mall was heralded by the New York Times as proof of China's astonishing new consumer culture. But today, the not so great Mall of China, as it is known, is a glaring indication that this consumer culture has been grossly overestimated. "


Added on April 20, 2011, 4:19 pmmore news on this but some of the news are from 2009. smile.gif

Work stops on Chinese ghost town
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8691083.stm

The ghost towns of China: Amazing satellite images show cities meant to be home to millions lying deserted
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13...y-deserted.html

Ordos, China: A Modern Ghost Town
http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29...2094492,00.html

China's empty city
Doubts remain whether strong economic growth in China can be sustained by public spending alone.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia-pac...722672521.html#


Added on April 20, 2011, 4:21 pm
QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 20 2011, 03:52 PM)
Leaving aside the question of whether the bubble in China is localized or general (but at least you're already admitting that there is a bubble of some kind in China!) even if the bubble is localized, it has grave consequences for the economy. Quite clearly, the scale of the empty properties is vast so a very significant proportion of the Chinese economy seems to be devoted to building properties that are left unoccupied. How can this be a sustainable business model? These empty buildings are being bought up by speculators (no occupants remember?) so these companies can stay in business only so long as the speculators keep buying. Eventually this must stop and the companies must go out of business. Workers then lose their jobs. This is bad, bad news.

I think that the state-controlled banks in China are hiding huge loan books in the property sector for all sorts of projects that will never be profitable. It's great while the party lasts but you cannot keep a pyramid scheme going forever. Once the scheme fails, you're looking at the whole Chinese economy collapsing. Even if you're right that there is enough demand in key cities like Shanghai and Beijing to prevent the prices there from collapsing, this still isn't enough to save the Chinese economy as a whole. Construction is going on all over China, not just in the main cities, and it is because of all this construction that the Chinese economy is so vibrant. They are literally building bridges to nowhere.
*
the growth in China is not sustainable in the long run.

This post has been edited by wingcross: Apr 20 2011, 04:21 PM

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