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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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edwardsiow
post Apr 19 2011, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(eugene jk @ Apr 19 2011, 03:46 PM)
Msia prop will be "soft landing" soon.. escalation wont happen forever and I dun think price will drop also.. it will just slow down and appreciation wont be as drastic as these few years .. at this time, locals will slowly digest and consume as inflation increases ..

If you say "Prop price adjust" means "drop", I dont think it will drop overall, probably small segment but not the entire nation.. Overall, prop price wont drop as long as cheap financing still fueling the market.. Property will still appreciate in the long run..

p/s: watchout for BTS which government plan to imposed in 2015.. if this really take off, prop price will soar even higher..
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Prices will be adjusted when those developers stop to "support" the prices and wait for other people to continue supporting the prices...if the people can't absorb the prices, the prices will drop to a level which people can absorb....like stock market...


Iceman74
post Apr 19 2011, 03:55 PM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Apr 19 2011, 03:45 PM)
But you will have to forfeit your booking downpayment right?
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depend on who you talk to..base on my previous case, can refund but after some thinking decided go for endlot


Added on April 19, 2011, 3:57 pm
QUOTE(edwardsiow @ Apr 19 2011, 03:54 PM)
Prices will be adjusted when those developers stop to "support" the prices and wait for other people to continue supporting the prices...if the people can't absorb the prices, the prices will drop to a level which people can absorb....like stock market...
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yup... end of the day, developers do need sales to survives

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Apr 19 2011, 03:57 PM
eugene jk
post Apr 19 2011, 04:02 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Apr 19 2011, 03:52 PM)
got any links saying what is BTS ?
i googled.. came out terminal BTS ... etc etc
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http://www.iproperty.com.my/news/3445/Mand...row,-says-REHDA

Mandatory build-then-sell concept will hamper property industry grow, says REHDA

See Hoy Chan Holdings group director Teo Chiang Kok said full implementation of the BTS concept would push property prices higher as developers would factor in price and additional risks into their cost.


http://www.theborneopost.com/?p=115357
Build-then-sell concept impossible, says DAP
godutch
post Apr 19 2011, 04:05 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 19 2011, 03:16 PM)
somebody quoted rm5k psf in 5 years time mah.
does it makes a difference if someone gives you the figure. would you buy just for the sake of someone naming a figure here? hmm.gif
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RM5K per sf in five years laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

so next year shud be RM2K already lo ??? let's wait and see.

btw, i really wanna know who is the person that said this hmm.gif

okok, by then just let the speculators to sell the properties among themselves la.

average malaysian no need to work la, work so hard also cant provide family with a shelter, just go protest on the street coz nothing to lose????? tongue.gif tongue.gif


Added on April 19, 2011, 4:06 pm
QUOTE(CKHong @ Apr 19 2011, 03:45 PM)
developer thought we consumer are stupid...
but then... still got alot ppl go buy one woh  HAHAHAHAHAA
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this is the difference between genuine buyers and speculators. genuine buyers although worried about the prices but still have afforability in mind. speculators may just sapu ???

This post has been edited by godutch: Apr 19 2011, 04:11 PM
eugene jk
post Apr 19 2011, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(edwardsiow @ Apr 19 2011, 03:54 PM)
Prices will be adjusted when those developers stop to "support" the prices and wait for other people to continue supporting the prices...if the people can't absorb the prices, the prices will drop to a level which people can absorb....like stock market...
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Very unlikely at the moment.. either launch at almost same price or slightly higher within the vicinity... Berjaya wont launch RM400k condo in Bukit Jalil, I&P wont launch RM500k terrace in Kinrara.. Only 1 condition you will see unusual cheap prop in prime area "during a major down turn in econmy" like asian financial crisis and US subprime..

You may find cheaper launching price at outskirts
godutch
post Apr 19 2011, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 19 2011, 03:45 PM)
hhhmmm... would ringgit rise leads to depreaciation of property prices? hmm.gif
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govt can't afford to let the ringgit to appreciate much coz we are an export oriented country. appreciation of ringgit, manufacturing sector will be badly hurt, economy koyak.
SUSUFO-ET
post Apr 19 2011, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 19 2011, 03:01 PM)
Hmm, so far none of the property bulls have responded to my questions about how far they expect prices for KL residential property to go in the next few years. Come on, if you guys really do think that there is still a lot of upside here, let's see some figures. After all, if you think that buying a house for 800k now is still a good deal, you must be confident that it will reach at least 1 million plus within the next few years, right?

This is not just idle curiosity. After all, if there is still that much upside in KL property I should liquidate my other investments to go all in on property. Currently my portfolio is very balanced between property, stocks, bond and even insurance funds. I am a very conservative investor.
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Come on you must define the thread before we can answer, you are referring to "are property prices going to DROP?", then is you to answer how much % will drop, we hv no duty to answer (how much to go up) although we believe the mkt us still good, one must be crazy if he/she claims that property prices will forever go upward trend, as I said earlier, my view is not likely we can see any major correction in 2011 & 2012, but 2013 shd be a turning point and 2014 will see some significant drop (10%-15%) for certain high end condos and shoplots...
I manage to check with bankers & property agents in Puchong, the sub-sale is showing a 30% drop in enquiries, landed property prices remains stagnant as compared to the last quarter of 2010, however new project is receiving even greater BBB in areas like KR and Bkt Jalil condos compared to 2010. Other area I shdn't comment coz I dunno...

Someone has suggested to open a new thread "how much rooms for property prices to go up?", I think can be discussed as well

AVFAN
post Apr 19 2011, 04:20 PM

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QUOTE(Iceman74 @ Apr 19 2011, 03:44 PM)
haha....later yr teh tarik n nasi lemak also add another 0 on the bills  cry.gif
maybe the only way increase purchasing power is let our ringgit rise  hmm.gif
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a currency can only appreciate against others if there is a lot of foreign exchange buying the currency, i.e. foreign inv coming in an/or high production exports to earn foreign currency. good example is sgd - this island attracts lots of foreign money, tourist$ and foreigners buying the props.
if you look at the rm performace in the last few years, it has depr against all major currecncies except the usd - that's because usa released >1.5 trillion new money via quantitative easing to relieve themselves of the massive debt and to keep the liquidity going, knowing inflation will rise, which has happened, of course. then again, usa is a big economy that can hold better and longer.
until msia incr productio&productivity, export more, attract more fdi (and not capital flight as we know), rise in int rates - no chance rm will rise. fyi, it is now fast approaching sgd 1 = rm2.5. pushing property prices with easy lending for local buyers does not help the strength of the currency.
QUOTE(CKHong @ Apr 19 2011, 03:52 PM)
got any links saying what is BTS ?
i googled.. came out terminal BTS ... etc etc
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you mean build-then-sell? according to this artilce, the government is expected to make the BTS system mandatory by 2015.
bts will have massive implications. politically, no chance since many small crony type develoeprs will get sudden death, no more gravy train.
http://www.theedgeproperty.com/news-a-view...ays-banker.html
edwardsiow
post Apr 19 2011, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(eugene jk @ Apr 19 2011, 04:09 PM)
Very unlikely at the moment.. either launch at almost same price or slightly higher within the vicinity... Berjaya wont launch RM400k condo in Bukit Jalil, I&P wont launch RM500k terrace in Kinrara.. Only 1 condition you will see unusual cheap prop in prime area "during a major down turn in econmy" like asian financial crisis and US subprime..

You may find cheaper launching price at outskirts
*
We are "helpless" people...most of us are led by the nose all the time...they are created an environment which the big winners are developers and government..


TheDoer
post Apr 19 2011, 04:28 PM

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haha... yep... what this means is print more notes. We still get paid the same amount of foreign currency, just that we have more RM for our squables. Including the price of teh tarik, or prop price, since we won't be able to afford props by then. So if the price doesn't drop, then our wage (the number of zeroes) has to go up.

This post has been edited by TheDoer: Apr 19 2011, 04:31 PM
Iceman74
post Apr 19 2011, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 19 2011, 04:20 PM)
a currency can only appreciate against others if there is a lot of foreign exchange buying the currency, i.e. foreign inv coming in an/or high production exports to earn foreign currency. good example is sgd - this island attracts lots of foreign money, tourist$ and foreigners buying the props.
if you look at the rm performace in the last few years, it has depr against all major currecncies except the usd - that's because usa released >1.5 trillion new money via quantitative easing to relieve themselves of the massive debt and to keep the liquidity going, knowing inflation will rise, which has happened, of course. then again, usa is a big economy that can hold better and longer.
until msia incr productio&productivity, export more, attract more fdi (and not capital flight as we know), rise in int rates - no chance rm will rise. fyi, it is now fast approaching sgd 1 = rm2.5. pushing property prices with easy lending for local buyers does not help the strength of the currency.

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i tot someone here said alot foreign buyers buying up our properties cos is dirt cheap tongue.gif
look like not enough to push increase in RM

btw i really dunno what will happen to property if Gov do intro GST
TheDoer
post Apr 19 2011, 04:32 PM

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QUOTE(Iceman74 @ Apr 19 2011, 04:29 PM)
btw i really dunno what will happen to property if Gov do intro GST
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Oh god... I wouldn't dare think. shocking.gif
AVFAN
post Apr 19 2011, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(Iceman74 @ Apr 19 2011, 04:29 PM)
i tot someone here said alot foreign buyers buying up our properties cos is dirt cheap  tongue.gif
look like not enough to push increase in RM

btw i really dunno what will happen to property if Gov do intro GST
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the foreign buying is very small compared to total.

gst... if they do it today, there'll probably be riots...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 19 2011, 04:33 PM
SUSwankongyew
post Apr 19 2011, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 19 2011, 04:15 PM)
Come on you must define the thread before we can answer, you are referring to "are property prices going to DROP?", then is you to answer how much % will drop, we hv no duty to answer (how much to go up) although we believe the mkt us still good, one must be crazy if he/she claims that property prices will forever go upward trend, as I said earlier, my view is not likely we can see any major correction in 2011 & 2012, but 2013 shd be a turning point and 2014 will see some significant drop (10%-15%) for certain high end condos and shoplots...
But that is already different from what some of the other bulls seem to be saying. One mentioned that it is always a good time to buy property in KL. Doesn't that imply confidence that prices will always go up? I'm asking these questions here to gauge the general sentiment. My conclusion is that the bears now strongly outweigh the bulls, which was not true even one year ago, and even bulls like yourself see a turning point on the horizon.

Anyway, thanks for the information.
kochin
post Apr 19 2011, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 19 2011, 04:35 PM)
But that is already different from what some of the other bulls seem to be saying. One mentioned that it is always a good time to buy property in KL. Doesn't that imply confidence that prices will always go up? I'm asking these questions here to gauge the general sentiment. My conclusion is that the bears now strongly outweigh the bulls, which was not true even one year ago, and even bulls like yourself see a turning point on the horizon.

Anyway, thanks for the information.
*
the poser did mentioned he's conservative and have portfolios comprising properties, stocks, funds, etc.
perhaps he can share out his experience on which is his best return so far?
Iceman74
post Apr 19 2011, 04:49 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 19 2011, 04:35 PM)
But that is already different from what some of the other bulls seem to be saying. One mentioned that it is always a good time to buy property in KL. Doesn't that imply confidence that prices will always go up? I'm asking these questions here to gauge the general sentiment. My conclusion is that the bears now strongly outweigh the bulls, which was not true even one year ago, and even bulls like yourself see a turning point on the horizon.

Anyway, thanks for the information.
*
i always remember the old saying "when everyone including auntie/uncle rushing in, i will be the person at the nearest exit or out of here"

i already sold off those not so good properties around end of 2009. Those that i have now will have no material impact on me even if it does fall 30%. If it does a non-stop rise in price, well i really pity those that not yet buy a home but that ain't gonna happen as far as i see it(price rising).
SUSwankongyew
post Apr 19 2011, 05:18 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 19 2011, 04:47 PM)
the poser did mentioned he's conservative and have portfolios comprising properties, stocks, funds, etc.
perhaps he can share out his experience on which is his best return so far?
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Why would you call me a poser? I've never claimed to be a rich investor, merely that I've spread what I have around.

Anyway, the single best investment I've made is probably in REITs. I guess that counts as property but I think of it as more like stocks. Including capital gains and reinvested dividends, my return per year exceeds 20%. I guess I got in at a good time.
kochin
post Apr 19 2011, 05:43 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 19 2011, 05:18 PM)
Why would you call me a poser? I've never claimed to be a rich investor, merely that I've spread what I have around.

Anyway, the single best investment I've made is probably in REITs. I guess that counts as property but I think of it as more like stocks. Including capital gains and reinvested dividends, my return per year exceeds 20%. I guess I got in at a good time.
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pai seh, my england no good ah.
what i meant was poser as in the one who post the statement.
pai seh pai seh.
needs to go back to do my primary school english... blush.gif
SUSUFO-ET
post Apr 19 2011, 06:00 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 19 2011, 05:43 PM)
pai seh, my england no good ah.
what i meant was poser as in the one who post the statement.
pai seh pai seh.
needs to go back to do my primary school english... blush.gif
*
biggrin.gif
Yr English really jialat, let me teach you, it's called Postman tongue.gif
rickkow
post Apr 19 2011, 07:30 PM

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QUOTE(Veda @ Feb 22 2011, 07:07 AM)
The original topic was started in July 2008 and was closed in Feb 2011
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/741185

Nearly 3 years passed during which property prices not only failed to drop but went up sharply (in Klang Valley and Penang).

Let the debate continue.
P.S. if the property market does crash and you want to sell your property at a big discount, PM me  tongue.gif
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don scare me pls.. Im goin to make some investment.. any good spot to introduce?


Added on April 19, 2011, 7:30 pm

don scare me pls.. Im goin to make some investment.. any good spot to introduce?
sad.gif

This post has been edited by rickkow: Apr 19 2011, 07:30 PM

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