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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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square2
post Jul 18 2022, 10:47 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 18 2022, 10:18 AM)
... heard such arguments b4...

well? Today you are in USA? or Malaysia?

You planning to spend USA dollars? Where? When?
Anytime soon?

yeah.... the things we buy are so much more expensive nowadays...
but... isn't it the same in many other countries?
inflation is everywhere... USA don't have? whistling.gif
and of course...
seen too often...
there are many who are scared of losing money due to inflation...
so they 'invest' and 'invest'....
got money... they just dump and dump and dump in the market....
suddenly this year.... market not good....
and their 'investment'?
many lost close to 50%.

not saying you, okay...  icon_rolleyes.gif

but this is my observations, which I share with you free.... ONLY you... laugh.gif

yup... who knows... you are currently and handily beating the market biggrin.gif
but yeah....
*
this year down 50%, next 3 years up 100%

comes with free dividend if they issue
square2
post Jan 3 2023, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jan 3 2023, 11:51 AM)
Hi,

Im generally still defensive for 2023 with a higher than normal cash buffer, but I have 3 bets going for 2023:

1. Interest rate is going to peak soon or has already peaked, disinflation accelerates and followed by recession and interest rate cuts by developed markets in the 2nd half.

2. China HK market rebound continues (but not expecting it to reach early 2021 levels) but then will reverse as global economic slowdown bites.

3. Oil suprise to the upside due to supply side issues.

Hopefully at least 2 materialize 😓
*
if interest has peaked, but remain unchanged for a period of time is no good too



This post has been edited by square2: Jan 3 2023, 05:10 PM
square2
post Jan 3 2023, 07:16 PM

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QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Jan 3 2023, 06:47 PM)
Remain unchanged means we are heading to growth cycle instead 🤦‍♀️

Fed use rates to temper the demand and supply of economy hence it remains means we are heading a growth cycle and everyone wealth is actually increasing
Hence why you need to look for staples, utilities and defensive to buy when growth and sell when downturn is over 👏
*
US is already on 4.25% to 4.50% rate, and is expecting to peak at 5-6%

5-6% is too much to handle for malaysians
square2
post Jan 4 2023, 09:20 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jan 3 2023, 09:03 PM)
Not good  enough for equities, but for bonds it will be good.
*
yes. but that doesn't constitute to growth cycle. who wanna do business in a high rate environment?
square2
post Jan 4 2023, 09:40 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jan 4 2023, 09:39 AM)
Did I say anything about growth cycle?
*
i didn't mention you. i was referring to the guy above smile.gif

 

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