Still my fav topic ..😆

Crashes come n go.

As we enter into 2023, are we going to see further market crash or a bull market?

The mainstream view seem to be that an economic slowdown is going to happen but it will be a soft landing thing. A mild tecession perhaps with Inflation having peaked and will slowly moderate.

But some, like Kathy Woods, are warning of deep recession and deflation, with inflation plunging to negatve.

Or in the worst case, deep recession but with persistently high inflation.

On top of all that you have gray swan events like the possibility of Ukraine-Russia conflict escalating n spreading to other countries. Political uncertainty etc.

What do you guys think? How are your portfolio positioned?

A few pts on top of your good pts :-

1) C Wood was right during pandemic, but not post-pandemic when tech crashed.
2) The portf mgr could be right in a rapidly rising i/r environment this year,... but when i/r's are held at a steadily high rate,... the environment has changed. He may not continue to be right.
3) What makes you think it will be stagnant in 2023 ?

Ok.

I was also thinking like you said in your second para,... Kuroda would be stepping down by Mar 31st next year,.. probably the next BOJ Governor will hike the ineterst rate.

How will Treasury swaps affect Jap interest rates,...

'I also know',....

Hi,

Im generally still defensive for 2023 with a higher than normal cash buffer, but I have 3 bets going for 2023:

1. Interest rate is going to peak soon or has already peaked, disinflation accelerates and followed by recession and interest rate cuts by developed markets in the 2nd half.

2. China HK market rebound continues (but not expecting it to reach early 2021 levels) but then will reverse as global economic slowdown bites.

3. Oil suprise to the upside due to supply side issues.

Hopefully at least 2 materialize 😓

if interest has peaked, but remain unchanged for a period of time is no good too

Also wanna add do not ignore what price action tells you. Most sectors may go down but there are always sector leaders that go up when things move down. It's our job to find them and take part in this opportunity. Unless you're trading breakdowns. Speaking from a swing traders perspective that is.