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billy_overheat
post Jun 3 2020, 07:50 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 3 2020, 06:30 PM)
Those postings started from that one post on what homework I would have done during the start of the crisis, ie betting on the glove sector. It's still the same play. One swing at the bat. That's all. Now if I had to swing, it was either one of those.  Why not Kossan? Fundamentals wasn't attractive enough to be considered. If you wanna bet, bet on the top horses. It will payoff.

And when I did the sector scan, I only looked at those stocks to gauge the sentiments of the sector, although I only swung at one of them.

That's how I fish.... and pls don't ask which one. lol. tongue.gif
Anyway, do you see how simple it was? You don't need to trade 4 or 5 stocks. Just 1 will do. Get it right, sit on it.... and then you are done for the year (or until the next opportunity). Bottom line, trade less. Do not over trade! Bet on just one. Risk is really the same...

ps.... market sentiments is ... really bubbly. A lot of newcomers playing... millennials ... talking ayam... lol ...  laugh.gif
try not to get caught up with the frenzy, ya!  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
always trade in bigger lots. since homework is already done, just trade according to setups. hmm.gif hmm.gif that's something i need to learn.
ChAOoz
post Jun 4 2020, 07:33 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 2 2020, 01:30 PM)
... I do have to admit the euphoria got to me most of the yesterday.... decided to do a bigger scan on the sector later in the afternoon and realised that it was time that I got off me sitting on my ass .... yes, there were a couple of signs and the obvious one of course was too fast, too furious, too soon... if that was the only factor alone, I probably let it slide.. and the other couple reason was the gravy train was grinding to a stop and of course there were some signs of distribution ... classical signs of climax in a rally..... but the main one was I was missing out the eruption on the top (pun intended hahaha)

that eruption.... was the nail in the coffin ... imo.... that the climax is near and in such situations, it has proven time and time and time again that the best course of action is that the stocks should be sold.... without hesitation.
ps... just sharing the couple of things that I wrote in my notes....

1. in a frenzy, valuation is just a foot note. It is what it is. If based on valuation alone, a trader is most likely to leave a huge chunk of profit on the table.
2. in terms of risk, there isn't much really IF and IF one got the buying in correct. The right buying solves most of the problem. It still held true here.
3. WAITING. waiting again is always crucial. Patience is really important for one to sit tight and do nothing. Never sell JUST BECAUSE there is a profit to take. That is always the worst thing to do.
4. in a sell off, there is always good profit to be made. All is needed is one good trade. Find it and sit on it. And yes, look for the sexiest story that can be told in the sell off. If it ain't sexy to me, it won't be sexy for others... all is needed is one good trade.
cheers
*
Bro, you wanna try another bat ?

Can look for Semicon / Tech

I've been camping that for awhile after exiting glove, i think their run could be soon innocent.gif

TSBoon3
post Jun 4 2020, 10:48 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jun 4 2020, 07:33 PM)
Bro, you wanna try another bat ?

Can look for Semicon / Tech

I've been camping that for awhile after exiting glove, i think their run could be soon  innocent.gif
*
The market is simply bubbly. Lots of millennials playing. Lots of returning players. You can see stocks played up based on ridiculous reasons. Bubbly.

So yeah it could worth a shot.

Me? Not doing anything. Just relaxing. Good luck though.
ChAOoz
post Jun 8 2020, 07:57 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 1 2020, 10:01 AM)
Quote :  It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.

From Reminincse of A Stock Operator... 

Quote:
In the end, time in the market is what counts. Legendary investor Charlie Munger from Berkshire Hathaway sums it up best, “the big money isn't in the buying and selling… It's in the waiting.”

icon_rolleyes.gif
*
Lets see the parallel between San Fran 1906 earthquake and now is the same or not. If you were in Livermore's shoe, will you short this recovery rally ?
TSBoon3
post Jun 8 2020, 10:32 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jun 8 2020, 07:57 PM)
Lets see the parallel between San Fran 1906 earthquake and now is the same or not. If you were in Livermore's shoe, will you short this recovery rally ?
*
laugh.gif

I am no Livermore lo. Never will.

On shorting. Paper shorted on several occasions. Results were never good. Roughly about 48% success rate or rather 52% failure. laugh.gif

So nah... I won't be shorting. Not my cuppa.
TSBoon3
post Jun 9 2020, 10:58 AM

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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/the-us-ente...2xMl0lue8gbGCjo
QUOTE
The worst U.S. downturn since the Great Depression is now officially a recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Though it seemed a foregone conclusion, the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions, made the declaration Monday as the nation tries to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.


That is why you never ever want to do silly things like selling your stocks before recession. Such confirmation (economic figures) are so lagging that it makes no sense to make your trading decision based on such indicators.

You watch and pay attention to the tree and not the forest.

Same with selling just because you think the market would crash.




TSBoon3
post Jun 15 2020, 09:34 AM

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QUOTE(billy_overheat @ Jun 3 2020, 07:50 PM)
always trade in bigger lots. since homework is already done, just trade according to setups.  hmm.gif  hmm.gif that's something i need to learn.
*
laugh.gif

Ah Billy, I am a picky trader. I trade only when I see a big killing is possible, if don't have, I just sit and do nothing. Yup, ask yourself, is there meat in the trade? What are you trading for? KFC? Aiyoyo.. that's the sure way to die. The profit potential must always, always be bigger than the potential money you will lose when you screw up your trade. Win big or do nothing la. So when I swing, I really swing for the fences with a big fat bat. I do not mean to simply trade anything. IF THERE IS NO MEAT, DON'T TRADE. Many, many will fall here cos they try to trade as often as possible. I don't. I wait. And if it comes, I go big. Get the difference? If you bet big just trying to win a KFC or iphone, this is one successful way to lose money la. So don't simply simply big, ok?


Trading setups? Aiyoyo. This is a must mah. The very basic thing. rolleyes.gif You need to define your strategy. Like going to a war. If you don't have your strategy, how to win the battles? And if you keep losing battles, sure you die la.

Your trading entries.... do you have one?

When to sell the stock for a profit? When to sell and take the loss?

Do you or better put ...can you stick to your trading plan?

If you don't plan, how to win a battle? If you don't win the battles, how to win the war?

flex.gif


TSBoon3
post Jun 15 2020, 12:03 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 2 2020, 01:30 PM)
... I do have to admit the euphoria got to me most of the yesterday.... decided to do a bigger scan on the sector later in the afternoon and realised that it was time that I got off me sitting on my ass .... yes, there were a couple of signs and the obvious one of course was too fast, too furious, too soon... if that was the only factor alone, I probably let it slide.. and the other couple reason was the gravy train was grinding to a stop and of course there were some signs of distribution ... classical signs of climax in a rally..... but the main one was I was missing out the eruption on the top (pun intended hahaha)

that eruption.... was the nail in the coffin ... imo.... that the climax is near and in such situations, it has proven time and time and time again that the best course of action is that the stocks should be sold.... without hesitation.
ps... just sharing the couple of things that I wrote in my notes....

1. in a frenzy, valuation is just a foot note. It is what it is. If based on valuation alone, a trader is most likely to leave a huge chunk of profit on the table.
2. in terms of risk, there isn't much really IF and IF one got the buying in correct. The right buying solves most of the problem. It still held true here.
3. WAITING. waiting again is always crucial. Patience is really important for one to sit tight and do nothing. Never sell JUST BECAUSE there is a profit to take. That is always the worst thing to do.
4. in a sell off, there is always good profit to be made. All is needed is one good trade. Find it and sit on it. And yes, look for the sexiest story that can be told in the sell off. If it ain't sexy to me, it won't be sexy for others... all is needed is one good trade.
cheers
*
personal update.... the blue line indicated when I last posted the chart..... ( ref post #2200 )

user posted image
vs
user posted image



user posted image
vs
user posted image



user posted image
vs
user posted image



user posted image
vs
user posted image


billy_overheat
post Jun 15 2020, 09:55 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 15 2020, 09:34 AM)
laugh.gif

Ah Billy, I am a picky trader. I trade only when I see a big killing is possible, if don't have, I just sit and do nothing. Yup, ask yourself, is there meat in the trade? What are you trading for? KFC? Aiyoyo.. that's the sure way to die. The profit potential must always, always be bigger than the potential money you will lose when you screw up your trade. Win big or do nothing la. So when I swing, I really swing for the fences with a big fat bat. I do not mean to simply trade anything. IF THERE IS NO MEAT, DON'T TRADE. Many, many will fall here cos they try to trade as often as possible. I don't. I wait. And if it comes, I go big. Get the difference? If you bet big just trying to win a KFC or iphone,  this is one successful way to lose money la. So don't simply simply big, ok?
Trading setups? Aiyoyo. This is a must mah. The very basic thing.  rolleyes.gif  You need to define your strategy. Like going to a war. If you don't have your strategy, how to win the battles? And if you keep losing battles, sure you die la.

Your trading entries.... do you have one?

When to sell the stock for a profit? When to sell and take the loss?

Do you or better put ...can you stick to your trading plan?

If you don't plan, how to win a battle? If you don't win the battles, how to win the war?

flex.gif
*
exactly. That's what i told my friends about having a plan. or else, just sit by the side because there's no use going to the war without a plan.

Yeah, i do have my own trading journal and plan. wrote in details on the entry point and when to take profits with sufficient rationales from FA and TA standpoint. have been paper trading since you told me about that many years ago. tongue.gif

but, again, what works for me is buy & hold and out of the stocks I own, it works (except a few, which kalah d, killed by the crash in 20/3 which I shamefully admitted that it's because of my lack of monitoring due to some personal issues sweat.gif )

after spending the time needed after the crash to read on QR/AR, bought the stocks which I have monitored for quite sometimes and that's it. I've been sitting very still since mid april till now. Even though the drops on these two days just wiped off my month-paper gain, I'm still sitting comfortably on green.

after paper trading for long, I'm still not confident on trading. started off reading things from the investing's perspective, realizing charting as better entry point, trying to mix things up a lil to hone the skills. trying to improve my winning strategy, however, the more i read, the little i know, hence the journey continues. sweat.gif
TSBoon3
post Jun 16 2020, 09:18 AM

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QUOTE(billy_overheat @ Jun 15 2020, 09:55 PM)
exactly. That's what i told my friends about having a plan. or else, just sit by the side because there's no use going to the war without a plan.

Yeah, i do have my own trading journal and plan. wrote in details on the entry point and when to take profits with sufficient rationales from FA and TA standpoint. have been paper trading since you told me about that many years ago.  tongue.gif

but, again, what works for me is buy & hold and out of the stocks I own, it works (except a few, which kalah d, killed by the crash in 20/3 which I shamefully admitted that it's because of my lack of monitoring due to some personal issues  sweat.gif )

after spending the time needed after the crash to read on QR/AR, bought the stocks which I have monitored for quite sometimes and that's it. I've been sitting very still since mid april till now. Even though the drops on these two days just wiped off my month-paper gain, I'm still sitting comfortably on green.

after paper trading for long, I'm still not confident on trading. started off reading things from the investing's perspective, realizing charting as better entry point, trying to mix things up a lil to hone the skills. trying to improve my winning strategy, however, the more i read, the little i know, hence the journey continues.  sweat.gif
*
The whole concept of paper trading is discovering what is good but most important what is not good. Stay away from the things that we sucked at. Bottom line is making money and not trying to win every single trade, every single swing.

If buy and hold suits you, stick to it. Understand your reason why you are buying the stock and understand when you should sell the stock for a loss and when you should sell the stock for a profit too. Know when you should sell. Buy and hold is ok la. It's still like trading but on a longer time frame.

ps: I am still trying to learn more everyday.
squarepilot
post Jun 16 2020, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 3 2020, 06:30 PM)
Those postings started from that one post on what homework I would have done during the start of the crisis, ie betting on the glove sector. It's still the same play. One swing at the bat. That's all. Now if I had to swing, it was either one of those.  Why not Kossan? Fundamentals wasn't attractive enough to be considered. If you wanna bet, bet on the top horses. It will payoff.

And when I did the sector scan, I only looked at those stocks to gauge the sentiments of the sector, although I only swung at one of them.

That's how I fish.... and pls don't ask which one. lol. tongue.gif
Anyway, do you see how simple it was? You don't need to trade 4 or 5 stocks. Just 1 will do. Get it right, sit on it.... and then you are done for the year (or until the next opportunity). Bottom line, trade less. Do not over trade! Bet on just one. Risk is really the same...

ps.... market sentiments is ... really bubbly. A lot of newcomers playing... millennials ... talking ayam... lol ...  laugh.gif
try not to get caught up with the frenzy, ya!  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
May I ask why kossan FA wasn't attractive enough?
The profit margin is second after harta
Their earnings and dividend payout is consistent
Its was the dark horse few years back.
Their utilisation factor is second to harta

Unless what you mean is not attractive enough for trading..
TSBoon3
post Jun 16 2020, 05:42 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Jun 16 2020, 05:13 PM)
May I ask why kossan FA wasn't attractive enough?
The profit margin is second after harta
Their earnings and dividend payout is consistent
Its was the dark horse few years back.
Their utilisation factor is second to harta

Unless what you mean is not attractive enough for trading..
*
LOL. It's over for me La.

See in a sector, which one to play? The answer is always to choose either the top 2 la. Harta and Comfort was merely included to gauge the sector only.

Ps. It was a pure speculation play. Glove stocks have so much yucky issues. tongue.gif
TSBoon3
post Jun 17 2020, 09:51 AM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Jun 16 2020, 05:13 PM)
May I ask why kossan FA wasn't attractive enough?
The profit margin is second after harta
Their earnings and dividend payout is consistent
Its was the dark horse few years back.
Their utilisation factor is second to harta

Unless what you mean is not attractive enough for trading..
*
Gave it another thought this morning.

Betting on dark horses, the second or the third liner, on the average it really, really never pays as well as the top players.
Top stocks in any given sector is top is given the top rating because it outperforms, in terms of share price movement.
Firstly, now we are in this to WIN money right?
right?
Yes, I know, this is a TRADER thread and I am a trader ....
BUT..................
does it really matter? We are IN the market to win money and for me, it doesn't matter if one is investing or trading, most important for me, is that we can adapt the best strategy that helps me win money consistently in the long run.

Now the reason to be in the glove sector was mentioned CASUALLY in the following posting #2123..
please do READ that....
now if one is ok and assessed all the necessary RISKS that the SPECULATION that glove markers will once again soar, like it did during the SARS and one had realised that the top stock in the sector SOARED, then what's left is to choose which stock.

My principle, one sector, only one stock. That's what suits me. Whack it all. Doesn't matter if one says I'm putting all the eggs in one basket. YES, normally that's not the wise thing to do BUT if one had assess the risk properly, why not? All I need to know is when to know I am bloody WRONG, admit it, and cut my loss. Most important, I must know where and when my exit strategy. The risk is all the same.

So choosing the stock. I must not be lazy. Open the situpid charts and check. Exercise my fingers. Which one outperform the most during the SARS era?

Again it points out to TOP GLOVE and SUPERMAX.

One of these two..... easy pick. I asked myself which one did I dislike the least... lol...


Now looking at the current result...
TOP GLOVE how many baggers?
SUPERMAX how many baggers?
aren't they big, big winners?

Look at Kossan... yes, it has performed well but has it even doubled its price yet?

So once again, the results show.....




ps...in the next few years, if another pandemic strikes, would I consider Kossan? Sorry answer is no. It's a second liner... and second liner usually comes in second.
Just applying the basic law of average.....

TSBoon3
post Jun 17 2020, 02:59 PM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ May 19 2020, 08:50 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Quote: Now the question is, can buy ah?
That day the posted chart was like this macam....

user posted image

today the chart is like this macam...

user posted image

macam macam update la..... laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jun 17 2020, 03:19 PM
Smurfs
post Jun 17 2020, 03:36 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 17 2020, 02:59 PM)
That day the posted chart was like this macam....

user posted image

today the chart is like this macam...

user posted image

macam macam update la.....  laugh.gif
*
so how?

can buy or not? whistling.gif
TSBoon3
post Jun 17 2020, 03:45 PM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Jun 17 2020, 03:36 PM)
so how?

can buy or not?  whistling.gif
*
laugh.gif laugh.gif

Just making sure you are awake...... thumbup.gif






» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

TSBoon3
post Jun 18 2020, 02:29 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 13 2020, 09:09 AM)
... the above quotes are just for references .. posted on another thread.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «
This other share is also interesting... slightly the same as ARBB but not quite the same...

AT and AT-W

AT price 12.5 sen.
AT-W price 5 sen.

conversion is 1:1 priced at 0.035 each..... rolleyes.gif

huge premium and it's fairly 'newly' listed warrant....
yeah... AT is losing money financially atm.... LOL.... but given the huge premium percentage ... there is yet a conversion to ordinary share...
so either AT is grossly overvalued (lol... how many really care valuation for such low price penny stock) or the warrant is grossly under priced tongue.gif



just notes only and is not a fluckin' stock tipsy...
so if mabuk dun point and blame....


user posted image


hehe86
post Jun 18 2020, 03:09 PM

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Anyone here has a good record using fibonacci?
squarepilot
post Jun 18 2020, 07:44 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 17 2020, 09:51 AM)
Gave it another thought this morning.

Betting on dark horses, the second or the third liner, on the average it really, really never pays as well as the top players.
Top stocks in any given sector is top is given the top rating because it outperforms, in terms of share price movement.
Firstly, now we are in this to WIN money right?
right?
Yes, I know, this is a TRADER thread and I am a trader ....
BUT..................
does it really matter? We are IN the market to win money and for me, it doesn't matter if one is investing or trading, most important for me, is that we can adapt the best strategy that helps me win money consistently in the long run.

Now the reason to be in the glove sector was mentioned CASUALLY in the following posting #2123..
please do READ that....
now if one is ok and assessed all the necessary RISKS that the SPECULATION that glove markers will once again soar,  like it did during the SARS and one had realised that the top stock in the sector SOARED, then what's left is to choose which stock.

My principle, one sector, only one stock. That's what suits me. Whack it all.  Doesn't matter if one says I'm putting all the eggs in one basket. YES, normally that's not the wise thing to do BUT if one had assess the risk properly, why not? All I need to know is when to know I am bloody WRONG, admit it, and cut my loss. Most important, I must know where and when my exit strategy. The risk is all the same.

So choosing the stock. I must not be lazy. Open the situpid charts and check. Exercise my fingers. Which one outperform the most during the SARS era?

Again it points out to TOP GLOVE and SUPERMAX.

One of these two..... easy pick. I asked myself which one did I dislike the least... lol...
Now looking at the current result...
TOP GLOVE how many baggers?
SUPERMAX how many baggers?
aren't they big, big winners?

Look at Kossan... yes, it has performed well but has it even doubled its price yet?

So once again, the results show.....
ps...in the next few years, if another pandemic strikes, would I consider Kossan? Sorry answer is no. It's a second liner... and second liner usually comes in second.
Just applying the basic law of average.....
*
Ahhh.. I see. Good write up👍
TSBoon3
post Jun 19 2020, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Jun 18 2020, 07:44 PM)
Ahhh.. I see. Good write up👍
*
Do realise what I mentioned is based on the assumption that one goes in 'early' at the start of a sector play and at the moment, risks are so much higher playing these glove stocks.



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