Exited. Another good trade.

Later this turn out to be another TG, then oh well

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/tech...l-pandemic-play

I wonder will retailer crowd into this space again or not.

This post has been edited by ChAOoz: Jun 22 2020, 10:39 AM

Well... you got your profit.

You seem anxious to sell. Scared to lose your profit?

Look back at the TG post. I sold my glove stock only because the collective charts flashed clear sign to me that I should sell for my profit. It matched my setup to sell for a profit because we witnessed the classical trader sign of what they called rally climax. I was lucky because the very next day, the stock retreated substantially for the very first time. What's interesting in the following is this.....

say you have zero idea wtf a rally climax is or you could tell....but you actually could use the very first day the stock corrects substantially as your sell indicator... look what happened on that day or more precisely where your sell price would have been? see? you could always sell for a much better price....

in the very same perspective... this is very much like selling before the market crashes... compare if one had simply sell in 2018 vs if one sell only in March 2020... see the very much difference in stock price? (assumption always is that the stock selection is so, so important... )

so again.... my saying to you is the same... wait.

But you sold.... LOL! Doesn't matter, does it?

Anyway, let me post up some selected tech stock charts in a few mins time...

Here are some selected stock charts.... the blue vertical line indicated 4th June... the day you asked me...











here are my 3sen opinions...

1. most of the tech stocks have done pretty well since early March...

2. now this for me was the matter of preference. If I had not chosen the glove stocks, for sure the tech sector 'might' have been a choice for me... but then it's June and frankly, these stocks in June was not in my buy setup. Not that cannot buy ( and if you would recall my earnest reply to you was that it was worth a shot) but most of the tech stocks simply had been trending nicely and imo the trend could still have legs to go very much further....

yeah, it's complicated. lol. I see them going up much higher but I would not trade it.... LOL. Make sense?

3. If I had chosen the tech sector instead of glove stock, clearly I would have just sit on my fat SSSS and not do twiddly... there is no sell indicator, so why la sell?

Haha, yeah i sold cause there is weakness. I actually hold since march. June was whether to see if it can pass that point. Sadly to me i sense there is weakness on last leg.

My sell signal for trade deals is usually FA + TA. FA clearly say tech are overvalued, and TA it is unable to breakout for more than a week already. So i sold. It could go up more, but problem is i'm still trading under pre-covid mentality. This kind of retail hype, i'm not to use to it yet and i don't plan to participate and lost my profit.

Below you can see my entry price and my exit price, not exactly the top but i really don't understand this new rocket P/E 100x style, i rather stick to the old days of bursa. That i understand better.

LOL! You bought much earlier than June 4th .....

I don't follow this stock. Hahaha.... Dunno what UWC stands for.. dunno what it does.. lol...

Considering your purchase price... LOL..... why sell? Seriously la..... I don't see the weakness la... in fact it does looks interesting...cos we could even have a pennant play here....




Anyway, do a paper trade yourself here...
assume you DID not sell...
assume you will hold the stock till the day the stock actually corrects (more than 5%) ....
mark that price vs your sell price today...

why?

it seems you are selling AHEAD.....

Hahah yeah earlier than June. Usually if i post a certain sector, most likely i'm already knee deep in it. Must have skin in the game only counts right.

On selling early, yeah problem is i always do that. I don't like holding high P/E stock, i always consider it value "realized"

It's always a clash between value and speculation. Tempted but its alright. I will hunt for the next one

Also when people do buy call, its either they already have a stake or they are going to exit. Belief half / half. even more so if it's guru. That is my view

... see ... you do realise that when a stock PE is HIGH... it means the price is high ie the stock is in demand... so lemme say again... dun be so afraid la....
hold it... your risk is still based on your cost price ma.... and if you have to give back some profit, lol, don't be stingy la...give back 10 or 20 sen is ok one....


ps.... 'when people do buy call'.... err.... I have been pretty much avoiding these statements for last few years already...in fact, I see my trading improving a lot since then... these buy/sell call are noises one is much better off avoiding.

ps/ps .... if you do use TA to sell... do not predict lo...

Ah climax top. Term used in the book How To Make Money from Stocks too. Need to do some homework/observation in identifying this.

So far from what i know is that during the rally, when there's volume but the price didn't goes up as much, then usually that's the first sign. Then also have to see volume when it retrace and when it rallies back. Can observe and learn some signal from these movements.

This post has been edited by hehe86: Jun 22 2020, 04:38 PM

[Wrong thread]

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jun 22 2020, 05:04 PM

Time to evaluate my posting on Mayban...

Meat... meat.... meat.... where is the meat?!

this question always, always needed to be asked. If there is no meat, what's the justification in betting?

Here is an updated chart of Mayban



this was the chart posted in Oct 2019...



ok, a dividend of 0.39 has been paid since Oct 2019...

but what's most interesting is the down channel..... yes?

Maybank has no meat since the macro isn't really good. It's bad. lol and rumoured OPR cut will hit banking sector badly. It's still one of my holdings under divi stocks for many years while others are consumers and techs for growth due to better strengths.



and this tells me that the recent spike to 8.2 was high manipulated..

but, does it mean that we can collect banking on weakness?

1. Ask.. ask... Where's the meat??????

Tell me. What kind of profit do you see? 10%? Surely not 20%..

2. In it just for the dividend??

??

Simpan BAT posting here.....


Since 2015, BAT dividends totals...



2015 -- 312.00
2016 -- 278.00
2017 -- 169.00
2018 -- 155.00
2019 -- 118.00
2020 -- 50.00 **

** BAT dividend for 2020 so far is half year. Assuming same rate of payout, we are looking at total dividend of only 100.00 **
** clearly the dividends is declining like hell! **

from 2015 to currently, BAT has paid 1082.00 in dividend (ie rm10,820.00 per 1,000 shares)

.....
Price of BAT today is 10.76.

if one purchase or invested in BAT for its dividends about 5 years ago, the price of BAT on 23rd June 2015 is 60.80.

dividends collected is 1082
price today is 10.76

which means one is looking at a holding a loss of 39.22 (60.82-10.82-10.76) !!!!!

** if one purchase on 23rd June 2015, one collected less 176.00 in dividends, since these dividends were paid before June 2015!! **


so do be careful, do not simply invest just because of dividends !!! Dividend investing has its fair share of risk!!!!



invested ~ 60k... for dividends... now losing 39k cos the share price has collapsed!!!

Ok. Got time now.

Let's ASSUME that this is a DIVIDEND play.

Say I tell you, Billy oh Billy, you should go invest la, Maybank. Based on the trailing dividends of 0,64 sen (Maybank dividend is actually INCREASING, ok!!) and a price of 7.62, we are talking of a yield of 6.98%.

Now before you fly to your computer and press buy Maybank shares... perhaps you should do a 5 year study and see what kind of return one is looking at, yes?

brb... let me dig up chart.. and the divs history.... let's see what kind of profit we are looking at..... yes? brb... let's see how long it takes.... org posting was 10.26am...




The first chart, I have DISABLED all price adjustments. That is the chart shows the price as it is during a particular time a few years back. On the chart I have written some pricing. Those pricing should be roughly the low of the year. See in this exercise, I gave the benefit of a doubt that the super kampung bomoh dividend raja is able to spot out the best (lowest) price each year to invest in Maybank.

The second one is dividend paid out. Sreenshot taken from that other website. (I assume it should be accurate). Ok so far?

**** please verify numbers and calculations. I might fark up the numbers.... **

Current price used = today opening price of 7.62

EXERCISE NO. 1

Buy Maybank in 2015 at the lowest possible price and hold until now!

Purchase Aug 2015. Price RM8.10

Dividend received since = 0.54 + 0.52 + 0.55 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 2.82

Current price = 7.62.
Purchase price = 8.10

*Current holding loss = 0.48 (I despise the phrase paper loss. LOL!)

Total dividend received = 2.82
Total gain since buying = 2.82 - 0.48 = 2.34

CAGR gain for 5 years = 5.21%


*** CAGR for holding 5 years = 5.21% only. Where the meat?? Put money in EPF better isn't it? !! ***

==========================================================================

EXERCISE NO. 2

Purchase Oct 2016. Price 7.70

Dividend received since = 0.32 + 0.55 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 2.08

Current price = 7.62
Purchase price = 7.70

* Current holding loss = 0.08

Total dividend received = 2.08
Total gain since buying = 2.08 - 0.08 = 2.00

CAGR gain for 4 years = 5.94%


**** 5.94% only ...... where the meat? Again kalah to EPF!! ****


==========================================================================

EXERCISE NO. 3

Purchase Nov 2017. Price 9.20

Dividend received since = 0.32 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 1.53

Current price = 7.62
Purchase price = 9.20

Oh oh!!!!!

* Current holding loss = 7.62 - 9.20 = 1.58

Total dividend since buying = 1.53

Total LOSS since buying 2017 = 0.05

==========================================================================

EXERCISE NO.4

Purchase Oct 2019. Price 8.37

Dividend received since = 0.64

Current price = 7.62
Purchase price = 8.37

Current holding loss = 7.62 - 8.37 = 0.75

Total dividend since buying = 0.64

Losing money also.......



This post has been edited by Boon3: Jun 29 2020, 11:03 AM

yeah, the classic dividend trap. my price is around 7 and it's just a small part of my portfolio for divi. the overall fluctuation isn't much as they comprise different sectors (other than the recent bull which spiked and now came back down). dont really have much time to monitor the price movement. growth wise, my other consumer/tech stocks are doing great. sold some, bought back some. while a small portion of my holdings give ok-ok divi. not bad la. quite balanced. didn't earn REALLY big, comfortably 20-30% including the losing ones.

and that's why it got me thinking. invest, or trade. i've been thinking to reshuffle everything now. and yeah, i'm well aware that this is traders' corner. shouldn't be discussing about investing. lol but like you said, buy & hold is also trading mahhhh

This post has been edited by billy_overheat: Jun 29 2020, 11:00 AM

I have finish my posting. Go see the end results.

ya read it. thanks! so if i were to buy any stocks right now, I wouldn't touch maybank as well, in fact, all banking.

the market has now calmed down and I'm still doing nothing to observe while trying to improve on my strategy.

Understanding the risk involved.....
Understanding the risk/reward ......

if there is no meat (reward) ..... seriously why bother?

Look at a stock like Maybank...... it's not that Maybank is not a good bank. it's the simple question is where is the meat? If there is no meat, why bother? This is something so simple, so logical but yet..............................

many are still buying it before looking at the plan due to the 'name' it comes with.

I hesitated a lot when I wanted to buy something, look at many things before I click and many a times, I'd just give up because the risk/reward ratio isn't balanced. my own criteria is, eerrr, quite stringent but the companies i'm holding certainly give me good sleep. but again, it makes me lose a lot of chance as well. so, still learning on how to pick the stocks. need all of your guidance from everyone here

I believe that most important is running some back data testing ourselves to check out theories....

One of the theory, which I am very sure of, is the DIVIDEND MAGIC theory.

I am always not impressed with those promoting theories that on dividends. Hold it many, many years and one should be able to see the wonders of dividends performing its bomoh tricks on your money....

The very simple point is the share price is never constant.
It is traded.
And with share price getting adjusted after it gives out dividend, how good could it get?
Furthermore, once if dividend trend is on a decline, the share price tends to fall too....
So how safe is this dividend theory?

I always feel that dividend should never be the main reason one purchase a stock....
would I buy a cow just for the milk?
or should I buy a cow for its milk and its meat?

Back to Maybank....

now what if I roll back and do two more years?



EXERCISE NO. 1

Buy Maybank in 2014 at the lowest possible price and hold until now!

Purchase Dec 2014. Price RM8.24

Dividend received since = 0.33 + 0.54 + 0.52 + 0.55 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 3.15

Current price = 7.62.
Purchase price = 8.24

*Current holding loss = 0.62

Total dividend received = 3.15
Total gain since buying = 3.15 - 0.62 = 2.60

CAGR gain for 6 years = 3.65%



=========================================================================

EXERCISE NO. 2

Buy Maybank in 2013 at the lowest possible price and hold until now!

Purchase Jan 2013. Price RM8.90

Dividend received since = 0.33 + 0.535 + 0.57 + 0.54 + 0.52 + 0.55 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 4.255

Current price = 7.62.
Purchase price = 8.90

*Current holding loss = 1.28

Total dividend received = 4.255
Total gain since buying = 4.255 - 1.28 = 2.975

CAGR gain for 7 years = 4.21%


And what can we deduce from this exercise?
I cheated and used the year lows as my buying price. I cherry picked my purchase price.
Consider this. In July 2013, Maybank had a high of 10.80!.
If 10.80 was the buying price, the current loss would have been 3.18.
Which would have reduced the total gains to a mere 1.075...
which would mean the CAGR gain for 7 years is only 1.65% !!!

How good and how safe dividend investing is?

That's my main point.....

Jaga lo ....