Boon3 i saw someone share about this. use RM10k can earn 176k in 3 days??

Wooooo!!

Yeah, and I still have no tipsy.

I have been selling fish... and of course... talking ayam.

Can ah?

yes. i do buy some FBMKLCI-H8Z warrant to hedge the risk.

Market is kinda wild these days

Why Kossan is not included?

I took entry in Kossan at 5.85. Seems like it is the slowest mover among the top 4.

Those postings started from that one post on what homework I would have done during the start of the crisis, ie betting on the glove sector. It's still the same play. One swing at the bat. That's all. Now if I had to swing, it was either one of those.  Why not Kossan? Fundamentals wasn't attractive enough to be considered. If you wanna bet, bet on the top horses. It will payoff.

And when I did the sector scan, I only looked at those stocks to gauge the sentiments of the sector, although I only swung at one of them.

That's how I fish.... and pls don't ask which one. lol.
Anyway, do you see how simple it was? You don't need to trade 4 or 5 stocks. Just 1 will do. Get it right, sit on it.... and then you are done for the year (or until the next opportunity). Bottom line, trade less. Do not over trade! Bet on just one. Risk is really the same...

ps.... market sentiments is ... really bubbly. A lot of newcomers playing... millennials ... talking ayam... lol ... 
try not to get caught up with the frenzy, ya! 

Ah Billy, I am a picky trader. I trade only when I see a big killing is possible, if don't have, I just sit and do nothing. Yup, ask yourself, is there meat in the trade? What are you trading for? KFC? Aiyoyo.. that's the sure way to die. The profit potential must always, always be bigger than the potential money you will lose when you screw up your trade. Win big or do nothing la. So when I swing, I really swing for the fences with a big fat bat. I do not mean to simply trade anything. IF THERE IS NO MEAT, DON'T TRADE. Many, many will fall here cos they try to trade as often as possible. I don't. I wait. And if it comes, I go big. Get the difference? If you bet big just trying to win a KFC or iphone,  this is one successful way to lose money la. So don't simply simply big, ok?
Trading setups? Aiyoyo. This is a must mah. The very basic thing.    You need to define your strategy. Like going to a war. If you don't have your strategy, how to win the battles? And if you keep losing battles, sure you die la.

Your trading entries.... do you have one?

When to sell the stock for a profit? When to sell and take the loss?

Do you or better put ...can you stick to your trading plan?

If you don't plan, how to win a battle? If you don't win the battles, how to win the war?

Ok. Got time now.

Let's ASSUME that this is a DIVIDEND play.

Say I tell you, Billy oh Billy, you should go invest la, Maybank. Based on the trailing dividends of 0,64 sen (Maybank dividend is actually INCREASING, ok!!) and a price of 7.62, we are talking of a yield of 6.98%.

Now before you fly to your computer and press buy Maybank shares... perhaps you should do a 5 year study and see what kind of return one is looking at, yes?

brb... let me dig up chart.. and the divs history.... let's see what kind of profit we are looking at..... yes?  brb... let's see how long it takes.... org posting was 10.26am...

[attachmentid=10525146]
[attachmentid=10525147]

The first chart, I have DISABLED all price adjustments. That is the chart shows the price as it is during a particular time a few years back. On the chart I have written some pricing. Those pricing should be roughly the low of the year. See in this exercise, I gave the benefit of a doubt that the super kampung bomoh dividend raja is able to spot out the best (lowest) price each year to invest in Maybank.

The second one is dividend paid out. Sreenshot taken from that other website. (I assume it should be accurate). Ok so far?

I have finish my posting. Go see the end results.

Understanding the risk involved.....
Understanding the risk/reward ......

if there is no meat (reward) ..... seriously why bother?

Look at a stock like Maybank......  it's not that Maybank is not a good bank. it's the simple question is where is the meat? If there is no meat, why bother? This is something so simple, so logical but yet..............................

I believe that most important is running some back data testing ourselves to check out theories....

One of the theory, which I am very sure of, is the DIVIDEND MAGIC theory.

I am always not impressed with those promoting theories that on dividends. Hold it many, many years and one should be able to see the wonders of dividends performing its bomoh tricks on your money....

The very simple point is the share price is never constant.
It is traded.
And with share price getting adjusted after it gives out dividend, how good could it get?
Furthermore, once if dividend trend is on a decline, the share price tends to fall too....
So how safe is this dividend theory?

I always feel that dividend should never be the main reason one purchase a stock....
would I buy a cow just for the milk?
or should I buy a cow for its milk and its meat?

Back to Maybank....

now what if I roll back and do two more years?



EXERCISE NO. 1

Buy Maybank in 2014 at the lowest possible price and hold until now!

Purchase Dec 2014. Price RM8.24

Dividend received since = 0.33 + 0.54 + 0.52 + 0.55 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 3.15

Current price = 7.62.
Purchase price = 8.24

*Current holding loss = 0.62

Total dividend received = 3.15
Total gain since buying = 3.15 - 0.62 = 2.60

CAGR gain for 6 years = 3.65%



=========================================================================

EXERCISE NO. 2

Buy Maybank in 2013 at the lowest possible price and hold until now!

Purchase Jan 2013. Price RM8.90

Dividend received since = 0.33 + 0.535 + 0.57 + 0.54 + 0.52 + 0.55 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 4.255

Current price = 7.62.
Purchase price = 8.90

*Current holding loss = 1.28

Total dividend received = 4.255
Total gain since buying = 4.255 - 1.28 = 2.975

CAGR gain for 7 years = 4.21%
And what can we deduce from this exercise?
I cheated and used the year lows as my buying price. I cherry picked my purchase price.
Consider this. In July 2013, Maybank had a high of 10.80!.
If 10.80 was the buying price, the current loss would have been 3.18.
Which would have reduced the total gains to a mere 1.075...
which would mean the CAGR gain for 7 years is only 1.65% !!!

How good and how safe dividend investing is?

That's my main point.....

Jaga lo ....

I do what's best for me, so should you. I tend to keep things as simple as possible. Trade only when I think a big win as possible, else do nothing.

Perhaps Maybank was the best example....   

Really............................

It's one example where you could put a lot of theory into test....

1. Buy the big blue chip. Does it hold true for Maybank? Reflect the test results from 2013 onward. And mind you, I used the assumption that one could buy at the lowest price each calendar year. Results are pretty dismal, yes?

2. Buy what you know best. ( so if one uses Maybank for banking and everywhere they go they see it is Maybank... so would investing in Maybank yield a good result?)

3. Invest in a big name stock for dividends..... again results for Maybank was dismal !!

4. Dollar average cost. LOL! Don't get con by this. You can dollar average for Maybank all you one and the end result is there .......

5. Same with averaging down. If the initial purchase yielded poor result, you are merely magnifying the poor result....don't you dig the hole deeper!

etc etc etc ....

run the back test. you hear an idea, test it out yourself....

If the past shows poor results, why should you adopt those theories?

So yes, to each their own... but do make sure your own has the capability to yield you good result. That's what important yes?
I can just bet big on a singular stock. It works for me but it might not work for you.
I bet big on that one glove stock earlier this year.
Now I am done... most likely for the year unless I see something that fits my setup.
If nothing then I do nothing...
Sit and sit...
Betting on say four or more stocks just doesn't work for me. That's me.
I don't spread out my bet but that's me.

If you go into a fight... if your kicks is your most lethal ... then you better make sure you go in hard with your kicks....
Fight your best fight....
Don't fight with something you are not good at.
It applies very much in the share market...

If trading short doesn't work...
hey, adjust the time frame...
Use the weeklies.... or the monthlies....
paper trade to find your best fight...