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 USD/MYR v5

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TSwil-i-am
post Dec 7 2016, 04:24 PM, updated 9y ago

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Continue from
v1 : https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3461956/+2500
v2 : https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3704916/+2440
v3 : https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3793092/+3300
v4 : https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3995728/+3100

2014
31/12/2014 - 3.4965

2015
31/3/2015 - 3.7035
30/6/2015 - 3.7730
30/9/2015 - 4.3955
17/12/2015 - 4.3135 (US Fed Reserve increase int rate)
31/12/2015 - 4.2935

2016
29/1/2016 - 4.1550
29/2/2016 - 4.2050
31/3/2016 - 3.9020
29/4/2016 - 3.9035
31/5/2016 - 4.1290
30/6/2016 - 4.0225
13/7/2016 - 3.9865 (BNM reduce OPR by 25bps)
31/7/2016 - 4.0535
30/8/2016 - 4.0495
30/9/2016 - 4.1455
31/10/2016 - 4.2040
30/11/2016 - 4.4660
30/12/2016 -

*29/9/2015 - 4.4565 (Highest)
*29 & 30/11/2016 - 4.4660 (New High)

TSwil-i-am
post Dec 7 2016, 04:25 PM

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nexona88
post Dec 7 2016, 04:32 PM

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MPC Meeting Schedule 2017

1st 19 Jan 2017 (Thursday)
2nd 02 Mar 2017 (Thursday)
3rd 12 May 2017 (Friday)
4th 13 Jul 2017 (Thursday)
5th 07 Sep 2017 (Thursday)
6th 09 Nov 2017 (Thursday)
Avangelice
post Dec 7 2016, 04:34 PM

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here's to a fruitful year ahead.
ILoveLalat.net
post Dec 7 2016, 05:05 PM

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Today it climbed down to 4.42. Very strong resistance at 4.50 it seems.
bbgoat
post Dec 7 2016, 05:51 PM

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Hope that I can say in Jan 2017 that my holding back to buy USD is correct. biggrin.gif
Parrot
post Dec 7 2016, 06:57 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 7 2016, 03:24 AM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

*
I remembered when the RM reached as low as 3.15. It's nowhere near the pre-'97 financial crisis lows of 2.50, but it was still reasonable.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 7 2016, 07:31 PM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Dec 7 2016, 05:05 PM)
Today it climbed down to 4.42. Very strong resistance at 4.50 it seems.
*
Climb up you mean? tongue.gif

Most money changers were out of stock for USD today because of the slight recovery. Too many people waiting to change or money changers are keeping because they expect the currency to dip lower? whistling.gif
Avangelice
post Dec 7 2016, 07:53 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 7 2016, 07:31 PM)
Climb up you mean?  tongue.gif

Most money changers were out of stock for USD today because of the slight recovery. Too many people waiting to change or money changers are keeping because they expect the currency to dip lower? whistling.gif
*
very curious of how those people actually make money out of constant conversion of hard cash through money exchangers.

Do they know by converting two times, part of their money goes into the money exchangers?
OPT
post Dec 7 2016, 07:57 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 7 2016, 07:53 PM)
very curious of how those people actually make money out of constant conversion of hard cash through money exchangers.

Do they know by converting two times, part of their money goes into the money exchangers?
*
Win-win lo
limeuu
post Dec 7 2016, 08:01 PM

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There were periods of time in 2011 when it was below 3....
TOMEI-R
post Dec 7 2016, 08:02 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 7 2016, 07:53 PM)
very curious of how those people actually make money out of constant conversion of hard cash through money exchangers.

Do they know by converting two times, part of their money goes into the money exchangers?
*
A lot of people going overseas for holidays, so maybe they need the cash. tongue.gif

You get what I mean...
Avangelice
post Dec 7 2016, 08:07 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 7 2016, 08:02 PM)
A lot of people going overseas for holidays, so maybe they need the cash. tongue.gif

You get what I mean...
*
now that defeats the purpose of converting hard currency to take advantage of the fluctuation now wouldn't it.
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 7 2016, 08:07 PM

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Ringgit seen stabilising in 1Q2017 - Miti
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/r...ing-1q2017-miti
TOMEI-R
post Dec 7 2016, 08:08 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 7 2016, 08:07 PM)
now that defeats the purpose of converting hard currency to take advantage of the fluctuation now wouldn't it.
*
Or rather the ever depreciating currency is creating panic among such people.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 7 2016, 08:10 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 7 2016, 08:07 PM)
Ringgit seen stabilising in 1Q2017 - Miti
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/r...ing-1q2017-miti
*
Though I would wish for it to be true, I don't particularly trust these bozos. sweat.gif Hope they would take more 'action' to stabilize the Ringgit rather than just mere talk.
Ramjade
post Dec 7 2016, 08:39 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 7 2016, 07:53 PM)
very curious of how those people actually make money out of constant conversion of hard cash through money exchangers.

Do they know by converting two times, part of their money goes into the money exchangers?
*
If RM depreciate some more? They already earned automatically. Many hope that RM will depreciate some more (their thinking) so that they can benefit from more RM.
Hansel
post Dec 7 2016, 09:03 PM

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Good movements against the USD today, despite the reduced foreign reserves ann't.. Probably analysts expected the drop will be more, but instead, the drop was only 1.9Bil USD ONLY,...

So,... MYR strengthened,.. I recalled this afternoon, it weakened a bit back to 4.43,...then turned around again.

Added : https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MYR%3DX&t=1d

This post has been edited by Hansel: Dec 7 2016, 09:04 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 7 2016, 09:05 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 7 2016, 08:39 PM)
If RM depreciate some more? They already earned automatically. Many hope that RM will depreciate some more (their thinking) so that they can benefit from more RM.
*
Benefit is not the right word.

How to benefit when more rm is needed to buy the same thing?

It is about protection of wealth, not benefit.

Of course, no protection or hedging, u lose.


ILoveLalat.net
post Dec 7 2016, 10:32 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 7 2016, 07:31 PM)
Climb up you mean?  tongue.gif

Most money changers were out of stock for USD today because of the slight recovery. Too many people waiting to change or money changers are keeping because they expect the currency to dip lower? whistling.gif
*
I play the opposite. So it's not good for me. tongue.gif Anyhow, have to average down, maybe take profits first.

QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 7 2016, 07:53 PM)
very curious of how those people actually make money out of constant conversion of hard cash through money exchangers.

Do they know by converting two times, part of their money goes into the money exchangers?
*
Actually, it can be the same for if one is playing forex as trading commission comes into play. I know you are referring to the spread the money changers charge but I prefer currency options myself. I do not have a forex account, nor forex options, so I have to live with this, what to do.

This post has been edited by ILoveLalat.net: Dec 7 2016, 10:38 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 7 2016, 11:20 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 7 2016, 09:03 PM)
Good movements against the USD today, despite the reduced foreign reserves ann't.. Probably analysts expected the drop will be more, but instead, the drop was only 1.9Bil USD ONLY,...

So,... MYR strengthened,.. I recalled this afternoon, it weakened a bit back to 4.43,...then turned around again.

Added : https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MYR%3DX&t=1d
*
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...pt9b-at-nov-30/

there is no mention of what caused the 1.9b decline - trade balance or RM intervention or both or ??

so, it is hard to tell if the RM is strengthening on its own or due to intervention or due to new measures.

until that info is available, i am inclined to think that if it hovers tightly 4.43-4.45, there is continuous intervention.


TOMEI-R
post Dec 7 2016, 11:22 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 7 2016, 09:05 PM)
Benefit is not the right word.

How to benefit when more rm is needed to buy the same thing?

It is about protection of wealth, not benefit.

Of course, no protection or hedging, u lose.
*
Agree with that. More towards protection of one's wealth and interest. How can there be much benefit when most of our wealth/ interest is here and we are earning this currency.

QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Dec 7 2016, 10:32 PM)
I play the opposite. So it's not good for me. tongue.gif Anyhow, have to average down, maybe take profits first.
Actually, it can be the same for if one is playing forex as trading commission comes into play. I know you are referring to the spread the money changers charge but I prefer currency options myself. I do not have a forex account, nor forex options, so I have to live with this, what to do.
*
So you are one of those 'speculators' who are causing the RM to dwindle! flex.gif
nexona88
post Dec 7 2016, 11:30 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 7 2016, 09:03 PM)
Good movements against the USD today, despite the reduced foreign reserves ann't.. Probably analysts expected the drop will be more, but instead, the drop was only 1.9Bil USD ONLY,...

So,... MYR strengthened,.. I recalled this afternoon, it weakened a bit back to 4.43,...then turned around again.

Added : https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MYR%3DX&t=1d
*
USD 1.9bil ONLY?? The figure is quite huge wor...
I was expecting lower blush.gif

Well the info is still blur blur.. No mention why the cause of the drop.. Anybody knows???
AVFAN
post Dec 7 2016, 11:38 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 7 2016, 11:22 PM)
Agree with that. More towards protection of one's wealth and interest. How can there be much benefit when most of our wealth/ interest is here and we are earning this currency.
*
that's the whole point of this thread since 2 years ago - protect yr hard earned savings, don't just watch it decay in times like these.

it is utterly miserable for low-mid wage earners and pensioners/retirees counting on their meager savings and epf funds for kids' education, medical expense and retirement only to meet with a 30% cut in purchasing power in a short 2 years.

and all they get is "all external, can't control, not too bad".
TOMEI-R
post Dec 7 2016, 11:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 7 2016, 11:38 PM)
that's the whole point of this thread since 2 years ago - protect yr hard earned savings, don't just watch it decay in times like these.

it is utterly miserable for low-mid wage earners and pensioners/retirees counting on their meager savings and epf funds for kids' education, medical expense and retirement only to meet with a 30% cut in purchasing power in a short 2 years.

and all they get is "all external, can't control, not too bad".
*
Some minister said you are not affected if you dont go overseas or buy imported stuff. whistling.gif

Those who realize our currency is turning into 'duit pisang' ought to take measures to limit their losses. Worst of all, we cant rely just on property now to protect our interests as even the property market is facing some very turbulent times.
Yes we can say every country is having hard times right now, but how come that it seems our Rm is the one hit the worst?

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 7 2016, 11:47 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 12:02 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 7 2016, 11:47 PM)
Some minister said you are not affected if you dont go overseas or buy imported stuff. whistling.gif

Those who realize our currency is turning into 'duit pisang' ought to take measures to limit their losses. Worst of all, we cant rely just on property now to protect our interests as even the property market is facing some very turbulent times.
Yes we can say every country is having hard times right now, but how come that it seems our Rm is the one hit the worst?
*
wait a few months, we'll see how prices of petrol, food and drinks will change.

i am actually not so concerned about 4.5 or 4.4 at this time. more concerned with what is anyone doing to improve the fundamentals to help appr the rm besides insisting all is good, just external and "speculators" fault. is the budget deficit systematically reduced, debts lowered, productivity growing, significant investments now made to increase fx income? do we see great new ventures in agriculture, manufacturing or high tech? or is it just more debt, consume and keep building towers - all with zero fx income? what to expect in 1, 2, 5 years time?

property.. so much already said. property cycles are very long...
if the big slump comes, it will take a good few years to recover.
i am one of the fortunate ones to ride it up and got off early enough. tongue.gif

Hansel
post Dec 8 2016, 12:48 AM

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Good points above,...but how to mediate ? Convert now and not wait anymore because the RM does not really have any sign that will help it ??

Because if we don't convert now, chances are the value will drop more moving forward,...
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 01:17 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 8 2016, 12:48 AM)
Good points above,...but how to mediate ? Convert now and not wait anymore because the RM does not really have any sign that will help it ??

Because if we don't convert now, chances are the value will drop more moving forward,...
*
see, that is what i'm thinking - what will make it appr? other than $ falling?

and then u read this kind of thing from dunno who... biggrin.gif
QUOTE
Meanwhile, Ramesh said moving forward, the ringgit was expected to remain at the current level in the short term, before bouncing back to about RM4 per US dollar in the first half of 2017.

“I strongly believe that our exports will improve and oil prices are going to remain at around US$60-US$65 per barrel in the first half of next year, in line with the recovery in other commodity prices.

“A lot of foreign investment is expected to come in the future, particularly due to the lower ringgit,” he said. - Bernama
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...it-unnecessary/

why is it that when a currency goes to the dogs, "A lot of foreign investment is expected to come."?! a lot of foreign $ going to turkey, venezuela, egypt, nigeria, argentina too? or getting dumped harder?

and oil price will magically shoot up from 50 to 65 within 6 months? please...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 8 2016, 01:27 AM
ILoveLalat.net
post Dec 8 2016, 06:53 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 7 2016, 11:22 PM)
So you are one of those 'speculators' who are causing the RM to dwindle! flex.gif
*
More on the hedging side. If I am really the speculator here, then I'm a goner.
Hansel
post Dec 8 2016, 07:14 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 8 2016, 01:17 AM)
see, that is what i'm thinking - what will make it appr? other than $ falling?

and then u read this kind of thing from dunno who...  biggrin.gif

why is it that when a currency goes to the dogs, "A lot of foreign investment is expected to come."?! a lot of foreign $ going to turkey, venezuela, egypt, nigeria, argentina too? or getting dumped harder?

and oil price will magically shoot up from 50 to 65 within 6 months? please...
*
As you said earlier, the RM has been dropping in the last two years,... I supposed we have been hoping for the best with the RM all while, hoping for s strong turnaround, which never came. We have been waiting thanks to people from your previous posting,...

But,.. we only have ourselves to blame, we should be able to think for ourselves,...

Start to change, start to open more accounts overseas,...
prophetjul
post Dec 8 2016, 08:37 AM

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i think there is a more powerful hand managing the levels for us.
Who, spending a few 10s of billions of $ is nothing.
prophetjul
post Dec 8 2016, 08:39 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 7 2016, 11:47 PM)
Some minister said you are not affected if you dont go overseas or buy imported stuff. whistling.gif

Those who realize our currency is turning into 'duit pisang' ought to take measures to limit their losses. Worst of all, we cant rely just on property now to protect our interests as even the property market is facing some very turbulent times.
Yes we can say every country is having hard times right now, but how come that it seems our Rm is the one hit the worst?
*
Now you know WHY our country is in deep shite with ministers like this one around to manage the country.
But then again, why do they care? Their millions are outside the country

RM is worst hit because of .........1***.....fill in the blanks

AND of course............D***
prophetjul
post Dec 8 2016, 08:41 AM

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i know i asked this before...........

while those who invested outside heavily can pat theirselves on the back and be smug.....think of the rest who have not.

HOW much do you hedge your net worth in foreign assets IF you are NOT MIGRATING?
Avangelice
post Dec 8 2016, 08:48 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 8 2016, 08:41 AM)
i know i asked this before...........

while those who invested outside heavily can pat theirselves on the back and be smug.....think of the rest who have not.

HOW much do you hedge your net worth in foreign assets  IF you are NOT MIGRATING?
*
buy foreign stocks?
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 8 2016, 08:49 AM

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Jomo: Loss of confidence in government a key dampener of ringgit performance
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/j...git-performance

The writing is on the wall
prophetjul
post Dec 8 2016, 08:49 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 8 2016, 08:48 AM)
buy foreign stocks?
*
Any assets class: Stocks, properties, businesses, etc
Avangelice
post Dec 8 2016, 09:03 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 8 2016, 08:49 AM)
Jomo: Loss of confidence in government a key dampener of ringgit performance
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/j...git-performance

The writing is on the wall
*
exactly why I withdrawn all my investments in Malaysia. only way I can invest in this country is via stocks in companies headed by royalty.

QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 8 2016, 08:49 AM)
Any assets class: Stocks, properties, businesses, etc
*
Yeap. way better than converting cash and keeping it under the pillow or safety box.
Showtime747
post Dec 8 2016, 09:09 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 8 2016, 08:41 AM)
i know i asked this before...........

while those who invested outside heavily can pat theirselves on the back and be smug.....think of the rest who have not.

HOW much do you hedge your net worth in foreign assets  IF you are NOT MIGRATING?
*
AVFAN and me had discussed before. I was ~20% 2 years ago. Now, not much improvement I think around ~30% only. Mainly because I have illiquid assets in ongoing business.

Not as much as I wish to. But I plan to achieve at least 50%-80% if possible. Leave some in malaysia as I think this is still the best country to live in
Showtime747
post Dec 8 2016, 09:13 AM

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Seeing the rate over this few days, especially after the BNM announcement last Friday, I have a feeling that 4.4x is the support level for RM. When calm returns, RM might appreciate back to 4.0x

This has happened before last year. Panic selling makes RM went to ~4.5x. Then in the next few months, it appreciated back below 4.00
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 8 2016, 08:49 AM)
Jomo: Loss of confidence in government a key dampener of ringgit performance
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/j...git-performance

The writing is on the wall
*
this kind of comment will be frowned upon by the power ones.
they only want rosy politically correct talk.
talk some more, he may get harassed/arrested.
and that's precisely the issues - non transparency, confidence.

QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 8 2016, 08:41 AM)
i know i asked this before...........

while those who invested outside heavily can pat theirselves on the back and be smug.....think of the rest who have not.

HOW much do you hedge your net worth in foreign assets  IF you are NOT MIGRATING?
*
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 8 2016, 09:09 AM)
AVFAN and me had discussed before. I was ~20% 2 years ago. Now, not much improvement I think around ~30% only. Mainly because I have illiquid assets in ongoing business.

Not as much as I wish to. But I plan to achieve at least 50%-80% if possible. Leave some in malaysia as I think this is still the best country to live in
*
me, about 40%, target is 50%.
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 8 2016, 09:13 AM)
Seeing the rate over this few days, especially after the BNM announcement last Friday, I have a feeling that 4.4x is the support level for RM. When calm returns, RM might appreciate back to 4.0x

This has happened before last year. Panic selling makes RM went to ~4.5x. Then in the next few months, it appreciated back below 4.00
*
bouncing within a range is very normal.

i think we need to watch a couple of weeks more to see a trend, if any.

.. $ index declined to 100.2x; last few days, $ softened against all major currencies.

.. SGD/RM still at 3.13; AUD/RM 3.32.

.. no info on whether bnm is still intervening or not.




cherroy
post Dec 8 2016, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 8 2016, 08:41 AM)
i know i asked this before...........

while those who invested outside heavily can pat theirselves on the back and be smug.....think of the rest who have not.

HOW much do you hedge your net worth in foreign assets  IF you are NOT MIGRATING?
*
In today investment environment, it is hard to assess and quantify.

Just like my previous example, if one has YTLreit, one has exposure to Aud, and indirectly hedge against RM (with high portion) with AUD/Aussie properties.

While if one invested in Starhill Global Reit in SGX in Sgd, one is indirectly has exposure back to RM (although it is small portion only) with Starhill in its portfolio.

While one put money in gold, one has hedge against RM with USD.

Although the gold investment is in RM and the gold investment is in local, and perceived as non-foreign asset, one indirectly has hedge in USD which is identical owning USD.



TOMEI-R
post Dec 8 2016, 12:46 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 8 2016, 09:22 AM)
bouncing within a range is very normal.

i think we need to watch a couple of weeks more to see a trend, if any.

.. $ index declined to 100.2x; last few days, $ softened against all major currencies.

.. SGD/RM still at 3.13; AUD/RM 3.32.

.. no info on whether bnm is still intervening or not.
*
Yes, the market rates is hovering these 2 weeks around SDG $1 to Rm3.12-RM3.13 +-. Any hopes for it to bounce back up again? tongue.gif

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 8 2016, 12:48 PM
limeuu
post Dec 8 2016, 12:47 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 8 2016, 08:41 AM)
i know i asked this before...........

while those who invested outside heavily can pat theirselves on the back and be smug.....think of the rest who have not.

HOW much do you hedge your net worth in foreign assets  IF you are NOT MIGRATING?
*
Half....and comfortable with that level....still need to live and spend here, not migrating....

Going forward, if opportunities arise (ie periods of strong myr), will move more out....just need to keep enough for local spending....rest is cheap overseas holiday money....lol
celicaizpower
post Dec 8 2016, 12:55 PM

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8 December 2016:

1 US Dollar equals 4.43 Malaysian Ringgit...
100 Thai Baht equals 12.45 Malaysian Ringgit...

simply wow... i hope it goes down soon... these exchange rates are not healthy for us Malaysian travellers...
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 12:57 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 8 2016, 12:46 PM)
Yes, the market rates is hovering these 2 weeks around SDG $1 to Rm3.12-RM3.13 +-. Any hopes for it to bounce back up again?
*
the way i look at it...

both sg and msia main trading partners are with each other and china, USA.

Given SG's way of managing the currency and not int rates like most countries, i would expect it to do what it has always done - follow the stronger $ more closely to keep import bills manageable as it imports everything it consumes, and can afford to do so with its vast fx reserves. But since it has strong trade links to Msia and china too, it cannot allow the SGD to rise too much if the RM and RMB falls against $.

So, it will be how you access the two biggies - USA and china, i.e. how the $ and RMB will play out.

in the near term, i doubt RM will rise against SGD with any significance.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 8 2016, 01:05 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(celicaizpower @ Dec 8 2016, 12:55 PM)
8 December 2016:
100 Thai Baht equals 12.45 Malaysian Ringgit...
*
long time ago, rm1 = baht 11
2014 rm1 = baht 10
2016 rm1 = baht 8

ya, nothing wrong, only usd strong, other currencies also falling bad, all is speculators fault.
spiderman17
post Dec 8 2016, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 8 2016, 09:09 AM)
AVFAN and me had discussed before. I was ~20% 2 years ago. Now, not much improvement I think around ~30% only. Mainly because I have illiquid assets in ongoing business.

Not as much as I wish to. But I plan to achieve at least 50%-80% if possible. Leave some in malaysia as I think this is still the best country to live in
*
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 8 2016, 09:17 AM)
this kind of comment will be frowned upon by the power ones.
they only want rosy politically correct talk.
talk some more, he may get harassed/arrested.
and that's precisely the issues - non transparency, confidence.
me, about 40%, target  is 50%.
*
QUOTE(limeuu @ Dec 8 2016, 12:47 PM)
Half....and comfortable with that level....still need to live and spend here, not migrating....

Going forward, if opportunities arise (ie periods of strong myr), will move more out....just need to keep enough for local spending....rest is cheap overseas holiday money....lol
*
I started moving from 0% in 2012 to almost 80%. Exclusively USD exposure (no sgd, aud etc).
I think I went overboard since I'm planning to retire here. Now scaling back, targeting 50% max, and may also diversify out from usd.


prophetjul
post Dec 8 2016, 02:36 PM

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QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Dec 8 2016, 02:13 PM)
I started moving from 0% in 2012 to almost 80%. Exclusively USD exposure (no sgd, aud etc).
I think I went overboard since I'm planning to retire here. Now scaling back, targeting 50% max, and may also diversify out from usd.
*
Wow!

That's drastic action!

It's a bit more difficult if majority of one's assets is in properties.
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 8 2016, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 8 2016, 01:20 PM)
long time ago, rm1 = baht 11
2014 rm1 = baht 10
2016 rm1 = baht 8

ya, nothing wrong, only usd strong, other currencies also falling bad, all is speculators fault.
*
They have nobody to blame but speculators
M not surprise they will blame karma later on
aspartame
post Dec 8 2016, 03:43 PM

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I think the absolute amount counts as well though obviously no one is going into details about their net worth here. What I mean is assuming your net worth is 100k and you have 100% invested in foreign assets compared to a person with 10mil net worth with 20% invested in foreign assets, then of course the person with 2mil invested overseas can say that what they have overseas is quite significant and can even allow him or his family to survive on foreign assets alone for quite sometime compared to the person with 100k overseas. I understand that to compare across individuals, percentage is the only metric suitable but in my opinion absolute amount is important too. The higher one's net worth especially if one has multiple properties, I think the lower one's foreign assets % is in practice. In short, I don't think there are many rich people with more than 30% of their net worth invested in foreign assets not counting those who has migrated or has plans to migrate or has dual residence.
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post Dec 8 2016, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Dec 8 2016, 02:13 PM)
I started moving from 0% in 2012 to almost 80%. Exclusively USD exposure (no sgd, aud etc).
I think I went overboard since I'm planning to retire here. Now scaling back, targeting 50% max, and may also diversify out from usd.
*
You really got guts to do this. Especially at a time that things are quite unpredictable. flex.gif
nexona88
post Dec 8 2016, 04:14 PM

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Malaysia’s foreign reserves under pressure in December, Q1 of 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...under-pressure/

Jomo: Ringgit’s fall also due to loss of confidence in govt bye.gif bruce.gif
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/j...confidence-govt

This post has been edited by nexona88: Dec 8 2016, 04:16 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 05:40 PM

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$ index <100, depr against all major currencies.

mayb due to russian attempts to dedollarize its financial system.

if rm is to gain, now is the time.
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 8 2016, 06:05 PM

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MYR appreciate gradually fr 4.4480 on 2/12 to 4.4290 today
I presume MYR is doing some soul searching now
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post Dec 8 2016, 06:07 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Dec 8 2016, 03:43 PM)
I think the absolute amount counts as well though obviously no one is going into details about their net worth here. What I mean is assuming your net worth is 100k and you have 100% invested in foreign assets compared to a person with 10mil net worth with 20% invested in foreign assets, then of course the person with 2mil invested overseas can say that what they have overseas is quite significant and can even allow him or his family to survive on foreign assets alone for quite sometime compared to the person with 100k overseas. I understand that to compare across individuals, percentage is the only metric suitable but in my opinion absolute amount is important too. The higher one's net worth especially if one has multiple properties, I think the lower one's foreign assets % is in practice. In short, I don't think there are many rich people with more than 30% of their net worth invested in foreign assets not counting those who has migrated or has plans to migrate or has dual residence.
*
I would disagree on that. Most tycoons and very rich people all have a lot of properties, businesses overseas. They even send their children overseas and help them settle down over there getting Citizenship over there. Ask our local vips and politicians and see where they send their children to? In short, most of the elite already know that the country and the economy is in the ruins long time ago and hence send their children to seek greener pastures overseas. Now don't get me wrong, I love this country and Im not being unpatriotic by saying such things but these are the bare facts. Only the common people like you and me are stuck here.
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post Dec 8 2016, 06:37 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Dec 8 2016, 03:43 PM)
I think the absolute amount counts as well though obviously no one is going into details about their net worth here. What I mean is assuming your net worth is 100k and you have 100% invested in foreign assets compared to a person with 10mil net worth with 20% invested in foreign assets, then of course the person with 2mil invested overseas can say that what they have overseas is quite significant and can even allow him or his family to survive on foreign assets alone for quite sometime compared to the person with 100k overseas. I understand that to compare across individuals, percentage is the only metric suitable but in my opinion absolute amount is important too. The higher one's net worth especially if one has multiple properties, I think the lower one's foreign assets % is in practice. In short, I don't think there are many rich people with more than 30% of their net worth invested in foreign assets not counting those who has migrated or has plans to migrate or has dual residence.
*
Yes, absolute amount is important...I'm just a small timer here. So it's easy for me to quickly shift my distribution percentages.
Besides, it's 100% liquid. I have very negligible non-liquid assets, so I don't consider them at all in weighing my exposure.
biggrin.gif

nexona88
post Dec 8 2016, 06:48 PM

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7 Dec 2016 10:40 UTC - 8 Dec 2016 10:45 UTC
USD/MYR close: 4.43345 low: 4.41645 high: 4.43350

meanwhile BNM closing @ 4.4240
bbgoat
post Dec 8 2016, 07:02 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 8 2016, 09:13 AM)
Seeing the rate over this few days, especially after the BNM announcement last Friday, I have a feeling that 4.4x is the support level for RM. When calm returns, RM might appreciate back to 4.0x

This has happened before last year. Panic selling makes RM went to ~4.5x. Then in the next few months, it appreciated back below 4.00
*
Agreed. My purchase history of USD, using TT:

Aug 2015: 3.96
Jan 2016: 4.45
Aug 2016: 4.04

I hope Jan 2017 it stable at current level or best still, go to 4.0x. thumbup.gif
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post Dec 8 2016, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 8 2016, 07:02 PM)
Agreed. My purchase history of USD, using TT:

Aug 2015: 3.96
Jan 2016: 4.45
Aug 2016: 4.04

I hope Jan 2017 it stable at current level or best still, go to 4.0x.  thumbup.gif
*
wonder if can ever reach Aug 2015 rate back rolleyes.gif sweat.gif unsure.gif yawn.gif
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post Dec 8 2016, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 8 2016, 07:14 PM)
wonder if can ever reach Aug 2015 rate back  rolleyes.gif  sweat.gif  unsure.gif  yawn.gif
*
In April 2016, it even dipped lower than that !

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR&view=1Y
aspartame
post Dec 8 2016, 07:29 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 8 2016, 06:07 PM)
I would disagree on that. Most tycoons and very rich people all have a lot of properties, businesses overseas. They even send their children overseas and help them settle down over there getting Citizenship over there. Ask our local vips and politicians and see where they send their children to? In short, most of the elite already know that the country and the economy is in the ruins long time ago and hence send their children to seek greener pastures overseas. Now don't get me wrong, I love this country and Im not being unpatriotic by saying such things but these are the bare facts. Only the common people like you and me are stuck here.
*
That's what I said too. Those rich ones with intention to migrate or have dual residency not counted. I expect them to have higher % of net worth overseas especially of course the full migration ones.
nexona88
post Dec 8 2016, 07:31 PM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 8 2016, 07:24 PM)
In April 2016, it even dipped lower than that !

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR&view=1Y
*
ahh so good rate biggrin.gif really missed it cool2.gif
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post Dec 8 2016, 08:51 PM

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now that china is bailing out 1mdb, any chance of myr strengthening? what do you all think?
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 08:53 PM

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QUOTE(kit2 @ Dec 8 2016, 08:51 PM)
now that china is bailing out 1mdb, any chance of myr strengthening? what do you all think?
*
before u ask others, pls say what YOU think first.
kit2
post Dec 8 2016, 08:59 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 8 2016, 08:53 PM)
before u ask others, pls say what YOU think first.
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i hope it will smile.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 8 2016, 09:02 PM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 8 2016, 07:02 PM)
Agreed. My purchase history of USD, using TT:

Aug 2015: 3.96
Jan 2016: 4.45
Aug 2016: 4.04

I hope Jan 2017 it stable at current level or best still, go to 4.0x.  thumbup.gif
*
Unlikely to move so drastic unless exceptional events
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 09:07 PM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 8 2016, 07:02 PM)
Agreed. My purchase history of USD, using TT:

Aug 2015: 3.96
Jan 2016: 4.45
Aug 2016: 4.04

I hope Jan 2017 it stable at current level or best still, go to 4.0x.  thumbup.gif
*
u sound very frus and desperate! tongue.gif

jan is < a month away.

watch dec 14, fed hike imminent.

i give 4.0x 5% chance, 4.3x 35%, 4.4x 60%.

and i see BNM continuous intervention using reserves to keep it <4.50.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 8 2016, 09:09 PM
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 8 2016, 10:00 PM

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Bank Negara to iron out admin processes following latest measures
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...atest-measures/

BNM under pressure fr industry players to calibrate its measures
bbgoat
post Dec 8 2016, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 8 2016, 09:02 PM)
Unlikely to move so drastic unless exceptional events
*
Ya, the 4.0x level NOT likely to reach. More likely is 4.3x the most. biggrin.gif

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 8 2016, 09:07 PM)
u sound very frus and desperate!  tongue.gif

jan is < a month away.

watch dec 14, fed hike imminent.

i give 4.0x 5% chance, 4.3x 35%, 4.4x 60%.

and i see BNM continuous intervention using reserves to keep it <4.50.
*
Did I sound frus and desperate ? laugh.gif

Read my lips, I said earlier: I hope it stabilize at current level, by Jan 2017. brows.gif

This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 8 2016, 10:20 PM
nexona88
post Dec 8 2016, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(kit2 @ Dec 8 2016, 08:51 PM)
now that china is bailing out 1mdb, any chance of myr strengthening? what do you all think?
*
eventho is positive news, but still I think it's 50/50 chance now..

MGS gonna mature something.. foreigners would withdraw it / transfer it out of the country..
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 8 2016, 10:37 PM

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Nomura Has 10 'Gray Swan' Risks That Could Roil Markets in 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...markets-in-2017

1 of them is capital controls in emerging market sweat.gif
nexona88
post Dec 8 2016, 10:43 PM

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Ringgit To Strengthen To RM4.00 Against US Dollar In 2017: Trade Expert
http://www.malaysiandigest.com/business/64...ade-expert.html

Hmm boleh percaya kah blink.gif biggrin.gif laugh.gif

limeuu
post Dec 8 2016, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(kit2 @ Dec 8 2016, 08:51 PM)
now that china is bailing out 1mdb, any chance of myr strengthening? what do you all think?
*
that "bailout" is mildly positive on the short term....and very negative on the intermediate term....it is not a bailout per se, but a pawning of the country....

don't believe for a minute prc is doing this out of the goodness of their heart....paybacks will be needed, in terms of pawning msian assets and approval of over-priced projects like east coast railway...

eventually prc will want to be paid....and it will come from future taxpayers....including your children....

this cannot be good for the currency in the mid to long term....
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post Dec 9 2016, 01:18 AM

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QUOTE(kit2 @ Dec 8 2016, 08:51 PM)
now that china is bailing out 1mdb, any chance of myr strengthening? what do you all think?
*
As if need not pay back China or Chinese won't repatriate profit in the future.

QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 8 2016, 10:17 PM)
Ya, the 4.0x level NOT likely to reach. More likely is 4.3x the most.  biggrin.gif
Did I sound frus and desperate ?  laugh.gif

Read my lips, I said earlier: I hope it stabilize at current level, by Jan 2017.  brows.gif
*
More mgs maturing in q1/17, fair amount is owned by foreigners.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 9 2016, 03:05 AM
OPT
post Dec 9 2016, 07:56 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 8 2016, 10:43 PM)
Ringgit To Strengthen To RM4.00 Against US Dollar In 2017: Trade Expert
http://www.malaysiandigest.com/business/64...ade-expert.html

Hmm boleh percaya kah  blink.gif  biggrin.gif  laugh.gif
*
Cakap-cakap saja..I never believe what they say, whether true or not true (mostly not true)

Wonder if there is something at stake like if it never happen they lose their job kinda thing...will they even dare to say that tongue.gif
prophetjul
post Dec 9 2016, 08:43 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 8 2016, 10:00 PM)
Bank Negara to iron out admin processes following latest measures
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...atest-measures/

BNM under pressure fr industry players to calibrate its measures
*
Msia style of national administration: Shoot first and worry wbout the mess later!
Typical Malaysian style! mad.gif
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post Dec 9 2016, 08:54 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 8 2016, 10:43 PM)
Ringgit To Strengthen To RM4.00 Against US Dollar In 2017: Trade Expert
http://www.malaysiandigest.com/business/64...ade-expert.html

Hmm boleh percaya kah  blink.gif  biggrin.gif  laugh.gif
*
So many trade experts has been wrong. If they were right they wouldn't be working as experts as they can just invest/short in whatever they say is right and be rich.

AVFAN
post Dec 9 2016, 10:18 AM

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those still insisting "it's just the $" better revise their arithmetic skills.


QUOTE
Using BNM rates (from the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market in Kuala Lumpur at 11.30am) and comparing the exchange rates on 1 November (before the US presidential elections) and 1 December, against the three countries, the results are not satisfactory. The Chinese Yuan and Thai Baht strengthened about 5% and Singapore Dollar (SGD) about 4% against RM.

If we go back further to 2 January 2013, the Yuan, Baht and SGD have strengthened 33%, 26% and 25% respectively against RM.

You can say the time when the RM crashed to as low as RM4.725 to the USD on 7 January 1998 is the worst. Let us be wary that we are still in the middle of a whirlpool.

Let us now look at the real effective exchange rate (REER). It is the weighted average of a country’s currency relative to an index or basket of other major currencies, adjusted for the effects of inflation. The World Bank website on REER index (taking year 2010 = 100) shows that in 2015, RM slid to around 92 while Yuan and SGD increased to 131 and 111 respectively. There were no figures for Baht. USD itself increased to around 114. For 2016, obviously the position will not be better for RM.
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/state-of...on-to-najib-co/



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post Dec 9 2016, 10:22 AM

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Good opinions,...I think I will start to convertout lar,... really nothing much to say anymore, and there is really nothing to help MYR in the near future,...

Asset prices overseas are dropping,... need to prepare my warchest.

Weak MYR also weak-lar,... what to do ???

We were born in Msia,... that's the thing to blame.
nexona88
post Dec 9 2016, 10:24 AM

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QUOTE(OPT @ Dec 9 2016, 07:56 AM)
Cakap-cakap saja..I never believe what they say, whether true or not true (mostly not true)

Wonder if there is something at stake like if it never happen they lose their job kinda thing...will they even dare to say that  tongue.gif
*
Well we just hear only lor
Don't actually take serious their opinion laugh.gif

QUOTE(Drian @ Dec 9 2016, 08:54 AM)
So many trade experts has been wrong. If they were right they wouldn't be working as experts as they can just invest/short in whatever they say is right and be rich.
*
Yup. Mostly have been wrong...
Just for sake of it they give one opinion..
To paint good situation of the country..
AVFAN
post Dec 9 2016, 10:28 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 9 2016, 10:22 AM)
Good opinions,...I think I will start to convertout lar,... really nothing much to say anymore, and there is really nothing to help MYR in the near future,...

Asset prices overseas are dropping,... need to prepare my warchest.

Weak MYR also weak-lar,... what to do ???

We were born in Msia,... that's the thing to blame.
*
well, should feel fortunate if u can still fight, convert, prepare.

young and old, many will be devastated:

QUOTE
Survey shows millions of Malaysians in dire straits with poor financial management behaviour and little savings and mounting debts.
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...no-way-to-live/
THE COMING RECESSION WILL BITE VERY DEEP: ONLY 6% OF M’SIANS CAN MAINTAIN THEIR LIFESTYLE FOR 6 MONTHS AFTER JOB LOSS – SURVEY
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/the-comi...ob-loss-survey/

Hansel
post Dec 9 2016, 10:31 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 9 2016, 10:28 AM)
well, should feel fortunate if u can still fight, convert, prepare.

young and old, many will be devastated:
*
Ok bro,... sorry to say the earlier things so openly,.. never ever wanted to hurt people,... dry.gif
icemanfx
post Dec 9 2016, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 9 2016, 10:22 AM)
Good opinions,...I think I will start to convertout lar,... really nothing much to say anymore, and there is really nothing to help MYR in the near future,...

Asset prices overseas are dropping,... need to prepare my warchest.

Weak MYR also weak-lar,... what to do ???

We were born in Msia,... that's the thing to blame.
*
Asset price overseas are dropping?

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 9 2016, 10:28 AM)
well, should feel fortunate if u can still fight, convert, prepare.

young and old, many will be devastated:
*
Many are indebted, expect banks npl to rise.

mujinkun
post Dec 9 2016, 10:41 AM

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I saw the tittle become USD/ MYR 5...dem...
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post Dec 9 2016, 10:46 AM

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QUOTE(mujinkun @ Dec 9 2016, 10:41 AM)
I saw the tittle become USD/ MYR 5...dem...
*
It's v5
AVFAN
post Dec 9 2016, 10:58 AM

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if rm is to strengthen, better it do so soon!

becos china inflation is rising again.

tonnes of china imports everyday.

add oil price +15% since nov 30, expect petrol price to jump 25-30 sen a liter on jan 1.

brace for heft prices increase very soon.

QUOTE
China Factory Prices Jump 3.3%, Lifting Global Inflation Outlook
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...flation-outlook

icemanfx
post Dec 9 2016, 11:00 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 9 2016, 10:58 AM)
if rm is to strengthen, better it do so soon!

becos china inflation is rising again.

tonnes of china imports everyday.

add oil price +15% since nov 30, expect petrol price to jump 25-30 sen a liter on jan 1.

brace for heft prices increase very soon.
*
Inflation will accelerate bank interest rate rise.

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post Dec 9 2016, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 9 2016, 11:00 AM)
Inflation will accelerate bank interest rate rise.
*
Yes, but whats the point when you have not much to save up anyway because costs of living went up.
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 9 2016, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 9 2016, 11:00 AM)
Inflation will accelerate bank interest rate rise.
*
I dun think official inflation rate will exceed 3% next yr
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 9 2016, 12:12 PM

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Exporters’ reluctance to convert proceeds to ringgit causes imbalances
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...ses-imbalances/

As usual, blame exporter/speculator n the list goes on doh.gif
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post Dec 9 2016, 12:17 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 9 2016, 12:09 PM)
I dun think official inflation rate will exceed 3% next yr
*
You believed official inflation rate? hmm.gif For inflation in malaysia, best to look at your average nasi lemak index. cry.gif mad.gif bangwall.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 9 2016, 12:19 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 9 2016, 12:17 PM)
You believed official inflation rate? hmm.gif For inflation in malaysia, best to look at your average nasi lemak index.  cry.gif  mad.gif  bangwall.gif
*
I know it's not true
Having said tat, policy makers will rely on 'official' numbers
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post Dec 9 2016, 12:45 PM

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Parrot
post Dec 9 2016, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 8 2016, 09:43 AM)
Ringgit To Strengthen To RM4.00 Against US Dollar In 2017: Trade Expert
http://www.malaysiandigest.com/business/64...ade-expert.html

Hmm boleh percaya kah  blink.gif  biggrin.gif  laugh.gif
*
That's an unrealistically optimistic projection. His simplistic view of factors that could spur an appreciation that steep isn't helping either.

This post has been edited by Parrot: Dec 9 2016, 12:58 PM
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 9 2016, 01:02 PM

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QUOTE(Parrot @ Dec 9 2016, 12:58 PM)
That's an unrealistically optimistic projection. His simplistic view of factors that could spur an appreciation that steep isn't helping either.
*
Anyone can give prediction as they won't b penalize
Having said tat, it's up to reader to digest n make decision
nexona88
post Dec 9 2016, 01:02 PM

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QUOTE(Parrot @ Dec 9 2016, 12:58 PM)
That's an unrealistically optimistic projection. His simplistic view of factors that could spur an appreciation that steep isn't helping either.
*
we all know its unrealistic projection.. tcss only biggrin.gif
nexona88
post Dec 9 2016, 02:03 PM

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Saw in newspaper today, got few predictions for 2017 for myr/USD rate..

Affinhwang - 4.10
Ambank - 4.48
Barclays - 4.57
Bimb - 4.20
BNP - 4.75
Citigroup - 4.43
HSBC - 4.50
Maybank - 4.15
Nomura - 4.76
Rhb - 4.20
Uob - 4.35

So which is the choice laugh.gif
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post Dec 9 2016, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 9 2016, 01:02 PM)
Anyone can give prediction as they won't b penalize
Having said tat, it's up to reader to digest n make decision
*
For me, when I need to buy, I just have to buy USD.

But now thinking of buying some foreign retail bonds. So may see when RM strengthen, go for some foreign retail bonds. Level ? Say 4.0 to 4.2, lets say. biggrin.gif
Parrot
post Dec 9 2016, 02:55 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 9 2016, 01:03 AM)
Saw in newspaper today, got few predictions for 2017 for myr/USD rate..

Affinhwang - 4.10
Ambank - 4.48
Barclays - 4.57
Bimb - 4.20
BNP - 4.75
Citigroup - 4.43
HSBC - 4.50
Maybank - 4.15
Nomura - 4.76
Rhb - 4.20
Uob - 4.35

So which is the choice laugh.gif
*
An average of the projections seems reasonable. Around 4.3-4.4 average for the year, assuming the local and international turmoils continue to simmer the way they are.

QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 9 2016, 01:47 AM)
For me, when I need to buy, I just have to buy USD.

But now thinking of buying some foreign retail bonds. So may see when RM strengthen, go for some foreign retail bonds. Level ? Say 4.0 to 4.2, lets say.  biggrin.gif
*
Going to start up doing art commissioning in USD prices by the end of the month, since prospects are better as ever. I was also told I could eventually set up a foreign currency account if I accumulated enough USD.

This post has been edited by Parrot: Dec 9 2016, 03:05 PM
nexona88
post Dec 9 2016, 03:20 PM

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QUOTE(Parrot @ Dec 9 2016, 02:55 PM)
An average of the projections seems reasonable. Around 4.3-4.4 average for the year, assuming the local and international turmoils continue to simmer the way they are.
*
if u look, seems like most local one give lower prediction like affin, maybank, bimb & rhb while those foreign one give higher prediction rate like Nomura, BNP & Barclays cool2.gif
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post Dec 9 2016, 03:32 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 9 2016, 02:20 AM)
if u look, seems like most local one give lower prediction like affin, maybank, bimb & rhb while those foreign one give higher prediction rate like Nomura, BNP & Barclays  cool2.gif
*
It's hardly surprising.

One side's overly optimistic while the other is overly pessimistic, just like local and foreign media. Chances are it's going to be middling. Not so bad, but not so good either.
nexona88
post Dec 9 2016, 03:42 PM

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QUOTE(Parrot @ Dec 9 2016, 03:32 PM)
It's hardly surprising.

One side's overly optimistic while the other is overly pessimistic, just like local and foreign media. Chances are it's going to be middling. Not so bad, but not so good either.
*
well I think we could conclude it's would be around 4.35 - 4.45 range as the middle ground dry.gif
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post Dec 9 2016, 03:42 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 9 2016, 12:09 PM)
I dun think official inflation rate will exceed 3% next yr
*
Actual inflation would be near 10% if official is 3%...
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post Dec 9 2016, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 9 2016, 02:42 AM)
well I think we could conclude it's would be around 4.35 - 4.45 range as the middle ground  dry.gif
*
Seems reasonable.

This post has been edited by Parrot: Dec 9 2016, 03:59 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 9 2016, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 9 2016, 03:42 PM)
well I think we could conclude it's would be around 4.35 - 4.45 range as the middle ground  dry.gif
*
for now, yes.

things may change quickly in 2017.

QUOTE(mujinkun @ Dec 9 2016, 03:42 PM)
Actual inflation would be near 10% if official is 3%...
*
yes...

official is for rural/villages only.

urban/suburban, take official x 3.
nexona88
post Dec 9 2016, 05:00 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 9 2016, 04:55 PM)
for now, yes.

things may change quickly in 2017.
*
for worse? 5.00 MYR?? icon_question.gif devil.gif
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post Dec 9 2016, 05:08 PM

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CIMB says ringgit drop overdone, may return to fundamental value
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/c...?type=Corporate

ringgit’s fair value at 4.10 to 4.20 per dollar! cool2.gif
puchongite
post Dec 9 2016, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 9 2016, 05:08 PM)
CIMB says ringgit drop overdone, may return to fundamental value
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/c...?type=Corporate

ringgit’s fair value at 4.10 to 4.20 per dollar!  cool2.gif
*
Looks like your guess as good as mine. Everybody can make one guess, there is simply no basis who can be more correct. If one can get always get it correct, he does not need to work anymore.

This post has been edited by puchongite: Dec 9 2016, 05:15 PM
Drian
post Dec 9 2016, 05:38 PM

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Sometimes when I hear "have strong fundamentals", I find it kind of kind of vague, how strong is strong and how weak is weak. Strong fundamentals but low reserve is it still call strong fundamentals?

This post has been edited by Drian: Dec 9 2016, 05:38 PM
nexona88
post Dec 9 2016, 06:15 PM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Dec 9 2016, 05:15 PM)
Looks like your guess as good as mine. Everybody can make one guess, there is simply no basis who can be more correct. If one can get always get it correct, he does not need to work anymore.
*
did u realized something..

today seems a lot of prediction on MYR/USD thingy.. the most in 1 day dry.gif

why suddenly so much report out? "someone up there" give out instruction huh devil.gif brows.gif
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post Dec 9 2016, 06:41 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 9 2016, 06:15 PM)
did u realized something..

today seems a lot of prediction on MYR/USD thingy.. the most in 1 day  dry.gif

why suddenly so much report out? "someone up there" give out instruction huh  devil.gif  brows.gif
*
Abuthen.. This is what they are good at no?

They think the rakyat are morons.
nexona88
post Dec 9 2016, 06:53 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 9 2016, 06:41 PM)
Abuthen.. This is what they are good at no?

They think the rakyat are morons.
*
yes. it's their work..

but why all today..

already few today.. more would be out.. that fellow this fellow. that bank this bank mega_shok.gif

painting "good" situation.. all is well. No issues.. blink.gif bruce.gif
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post Dec 9 2016, 07:23 PM

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Nomura cuts Malaysia’s 2017 GDP growth forecast to 3.7% from 3.9%
AVFAN
post Dec 9 2016, 07:48 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Dec 9 2016, 05:38 PM)
Sometimes when I hear "have strong fundamentals",  I find it kind of  kind of vague, how strong is strong and how weak is weak. Strong fundamentals but low reserve is it still call strong fundamentals?
*
they may actually mean a strong "cash is king" regime supported a majority of MP's unlike in south korea where the MP's just threw out the president for corruption.

QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 9 2016, 06:41 PM)
They think the rakyat are morons.
*
they will be very disappointed if that is not the case after decades of hard work and investment.

QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Dec 9 2016, 07:23 PM)
"not too bad"... since usa and japan can only aim for 1.5%.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 9 2016, 08:24 PM
SUSXnet
post Dec 9 2016, 07:53 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 9 2016, 05:00 PM)
for worse? 5.00 MYR??  icon_question.gif  devil.gif
*
Thats the scammer's crystal ball prediction
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 9 2016, 09:32 PM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 9 2016, 02:47 PM)
For me, when I need to buy, I just have to buy USD.

But now thinking of buying some foreign retail bonds. So may see when RM strengthen, go for some foreign retail bonds. Level ? Say 4.0 to 4.2, lets say.  biggrin.gif
*
I wud say it's a bit of Luck at d point of purchase since u need to buy regardless of the prevailing rates
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 9 2016, 10:38 PM

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QUOTE(mujinkun @ Dec 9 2016, 03:42 PM)
Actual inflation would be near 10% if official is 3%...
*
I have to agree with u as f&b is a solid example
nexona88
post Dec 9 2016, 11:03 PM

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QUOTE(mujinkun @ Dec 9 2016, 03:42 PM)
Actual inflation would be near 10% if official is 3%...
*
well official inflation rate cannot use one.. really misleading the people bangwall.gif

u just need to observed the pricing of products sold..
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post Dec 9 2016, 11:04 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 9 2016, 09:32 PM)
I wud say it's a bit of Luck at d point of purchase since u need to buy regardless of the prevailing rates
*
Regardless the rates are floating around 4.3 and 4.4. 4.2 would be too optimistic I might say.
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 9 2016, 11:18 PM

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QUOTE(Xnet @ Dec 9 2016, 07:53 PM)
Thats the scammer's crystal ball prediction
*
Hahaha...
U still remember him/her
Anyway, 5 is unlikely for the time being as Banks imposed a lot of stringent process by requesting a lot of supporting docs
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post Dec 9 2016, 11:33 PM

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fresh reads:

QUOTE
Malaysian ringgit rout eases up
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government...t-rout-eases-up

China's Capital-Control Crackdown 'Particularly Worrying' for Businesses, Says George Magnus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...s-george-magnus

TSwil-i-am
post Dec 9 2016, 11:36 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 9 2016, 11:33 PM)
fresh reads:
*
Lets monitor whether MYR can stabilize ard 4.40+/- until end of tis mth as trader/investor r awaiting @ sideline to cash out the moment it start to appreciate
nexona88
post Dec 9 2016, 11:39 PM

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Ringgit volatility sharply lower as FMC measures take effect
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...es-take-effect/
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post Dec 10 2016, 12:56 AM

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after reading so much here, i still dont have any concrete plan what to convert into.. icon_question.gif
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post Dec 10 2016, 09:08 AM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Dec 10 2016, 12:56 AM)
after reading so much here, i still dont have any concrete plan what to convert into..  icon_question.gif
*
funny when I head people convert but what happens to that foreign currency AFTER conversion?
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post Dec 10 2016, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 9 2016, 09:32 PM)
I wud say it's a bit of Luck at d point of purchase since u need to buy regardless of the prevailing rates
*
If the rate continues to go south as it did >1 week ago, I would buy immediately. But as it goes now it "stabilize" so I can wait till early Jan. I then will observe the movement and have window of 10 days or so to buy.

Luck ? I don't think so. Just pick the rate that suits me at the time of buying. biggrin.gif
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post Dec 10 2016, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 9 2016, 11:36 PM)
Lets monitor whether MYR can stabilize ard 4.40+/- until end of tis mth as trader/investor r awaiting @ sideline to cash out the moment it start to appreciate
*
as of last night, $ resumed strength, index at 101.60

$ gained against euro, yen, sgd.

but $/RM flat at 4.42... bnm continuous intervention?

opec-non opec meeting today is the one to watch.

a significant outcome will have impact on oil price and hence the $.

next week, incl fed dec 14 will be key to watch currency movements.
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post Dec 10 2016, 12:44 PM

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Seems like myr is stabilized..
Maybe like the previous report says. Bnm new rules have reduced the movement..
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 10 2016, 02:20 PM

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RM likely to trade between 4.42 and 4.35 against USD next week
http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/12/195846/...t-usd-next-week

I presume a lot of Ppl will q up to change if MYR were to hit 4.35
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 10 2016, 02:23 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 10 2016, 10:18 AM)
as of last night, $ resumed strength, index at 101.60

$ gained against euro, yen, sgd.

but $/RM flat at 4.42... bnm continuous intervention?

opec-non opec meeting today is the one to watch.

a significant outcome will have impact on oil price and hence the $.

next week, incl fed dec 14 will be key to watch currency movements.
*
M surprise to note tat M'sia was invited to attend non OPEC meeting
Not sure whether M'sia will join d alliance to cut or maintain status quo hmm.gif
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post Dec 10 2016, 02:48 PM

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Would gladly change some myr if hit 4.35 as said in previous report..

Sure long que at money changers devil.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 10 2016, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 10 2016, 09:08 AM)
funny when I head people convert but what happens to that foreign currency AFTER conversion?
*
I presume there r various reason(s) as to y Ppl change
nexona88
post Dec 10 2016, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 10 2016, 10:18 AM)
as of last night, $ resumed strength, index at 101.60

$ gained against euro, yen, sgd.

but $/RM flat at 4.42... bnm continuous intervention?

opec-non opec meeting today is the one to watch.

a significant outcome will have impact on oil price and hence the $.

next week, incl fed dec 14 will be key to watch currency movements.
*
What time the meeting???
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post Dec 10 2016, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 10 2016, 02:48 PM)
Would gladly change some myr if hit 4.35 as said in previous report..

Sure long que at money changers devil.gif
*
No need wait....long queues already at mvm now....
nexona88
post Dec 10 2016, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(limeuu @ Dec 10 2016, 03:10 PM)
No need wait....long queues already at mvm now....
*
Really??
What the rate now??
Didn't see it blush.gif
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post Dec 10 2016, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 10 2016, 02:23 PM)
M surprise to note tat M'sia was invited to attend non OPEC meeting
Not sure whether M'sia will join d alliance to cut or maintain status quo  hmm.gif
*
So far, only five of the 14 oil-producing countries invited by Opec have confirmed their attendance: Russia, Oman, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Mexico.

https://www.ft.com/content/03971da4-be02-11...45-b8b81dd5d080

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 10 2016, 03:53 PM
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post Dec 10 2016, 05:58 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 10 2016, 02:20 PM)
RM likely to trade between 4.42 and 4.35 against USD next week
http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/12/195846/...t-usd-next-week

I presume a lot of Ppl will q up to change if MYR were to hit 4.35
*
Good news if it is to hit 4.35. But are they ever right ? Lets see. biggrin.gif
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post Dec 10 2016, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 10 2016, 03:53 PM)
So far, only five of the 14 oil-producing countries invited by Opec have confirmed their attendance: Russia, Oman, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Mexico.

https://www.ft.com/content/03971da4-be02-11...45-b8b81dd5d080
*
Do u think Malaysia will attend or not for the meeting??

Hey why I cannot access the link huh?? blink.gif

This post has been edited by nexona88: Dec 10 2016, 06:46 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 10 2016, 06:53 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 10 2016, 06:45 PM)
Do u think Malaysia will attend or not for the meeting??
*
what i think is not impt. biggrin.gif

msia is minor producer, need to INCR output.

if not, how will petronas survive? donations?!!



non-opec not in talks: usa, china, norway, brazil.

opec 1/3 world production.

non-opec 2/3.

nexona88
post Dec 10 2016, 06:59 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 10 2016, 06:53 PM)
what i think is not impt. biggrin.gif

msia is minor producer, need to INCR output.

if not, how will petronas survive? donations?!!
non-opec not in talks: usa, china, norway, brazil.

opec 1/3 world production.

non-opec 2/3.
*
Well according to news report I saw today..
OPEC output cut not enough to drain oil stockpiles..

Now with the non commitment by non OPEC members.. Expect no changes devil.gif

Pricing will still depressed cry.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 11 2016, 10:29 AM

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QUOTE
Non-OPEC oil producers to cut output 558,000 barrels a day

The 11 non-OPEC countries taking part in the agreement are: Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Equatorial Guinea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, Sudan and South Sudan.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/10/non-opec-oi...rels-a-day.html



oil prices already rose 15% since nov 30.

if it continue to gain, there will be another aspect to watch - petrol prices, inflation!
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post Dec 11 2016, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 11 2016, 10:29 AM)

QUOTE
" Non-OPEC oil producers to cut output 558,000 barrels a day

The 11 non-OPEC countries taking part in the agreement are: Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Equatorial Guinea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, Sudan and South Sudan.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/10/non-opec-oi...rels-a-day.html "


oil prices already rose 15% since nov 30.

if it continue to gain, there will be another aspect to watch - petrol prices, inflation!
*
I don't see China and USA inside. I think if USA suddenly ramps up her production with DT in the chair, oil price wouldn't really benefit much later on.
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post Dec 11 2016, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 11 2016, 11:15 AM)
I don't see China and USA inside. I think if USA suddenly ramps up her production with DT in the chair, oil price wouldn't really benefit much later on.
*
The biggies usa, canada, brazil, china, norway not taking part.

Saudi said it may cut even more.

It is basically a saudi show.

What happens next, i.e., actual cuts, enforcement, cheating, shale, impact on existing excess stocks, etc... yet to see.

But can expect the financial markets to push oil price higher, at least for a while.

RM may gain a bit as a result but inflation will become a major driver.

Every time petrol price is raised, everyone takes the chance to raise ALL prices, never to come down!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 11 2016, 11:41 AM
limeuu
post Dec 11 2016, 12:00 PM

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In a way, that's a very msian thing.... raising prices....so there is merit for the old fixed price system....

Other countries prices fluctuates daily....nobody raise prices....
nexona88
post Dec 11 2016, 01:00 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 11 2016, 10:29 AM)
oil prices already rose 15% since nov 30.

if it continue to gain, there will be another aspect to watch - petrol prices, inflation!
*
Its bad news for Malaysian consumers..
Price of retail fuel will go up confirm doh.gif
Which also have related effect on others stuff mad.gif
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post Dec 11 2016, 01:05 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 11 2016, 01:00 PM)
Its bad news for Malaysian consumers..
Price of retail fuel will go up confirm doh.gif
Which also have related effect on others stuff mad.gif
*
only in Malaysia where petrol price goes down, we are paying more taxes and removal of subsidies because the country is running out of money. when petrol price comes up, we are charged more with the same reasons.

kinda shows how our government is fucking up their management of the country
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 11 2016, 01:55 PM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 10 2016, 05:58 PM)
Good news if it is to hit 4.35. But are they ever right ? Lets see.  biggrin.gif
*
I wud say 4.35 is within reach since non opec have agreed to cut production plus gradual improvement in sentiments
AVFAN
post Dec 11 2016, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(limeuu @ Dec 11 2016, 12:00 PM)
In a way, that's a very msian thing.... raising prices....so there is merit for the old fixed price system....

Other countries prices fluctuates daily....nobody raise prices....
*
Fixed prices via subsidies are commonly applied in underdeveloped economies, give it time for resources and human capital to grow and be productive. It is costly and will be regressive and counter productive if held on for too long.

The scenario here is akward. While yelling developed nation and high income status, certain subsidies and free money remains while human capital, production and productivty are not improving.

No easy way out.

QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 11 2016, 01:00 PM)
Its bad news for Malaysian consumers..
Price of retail fuel will go up confirm doh.gif
Which also have related effect on others stuff mad.gif
*
This is where it will hurt.

For >2 years, oil price stayed low, prices of goods go up becos RM depr.
When oil price goes back up, RM gain will not be able to stop inflation.

The only thing that will overcome this is fast increasing wages.
And that is not happening.
Result... everyone becomes poorer.
Except those with tens, hundreds of millions, billions.
nexona88
post Dec 11 2016, 05:51 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 11 2016, 01:05 PM)
only in Malaysia where petrol price goes down, we are paying more taxes and removal of subsidies because the country is running out of money. when petrol price comes up,  we are charged more with the same reasons.

kinda shows how our government is fucking up their management of the country
*
well it's would get worse later.. gomen is spending spending like no tomorrow.. they cut the necessary stuff / allocation but add more allocation for unnecessary spending..


QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 11 2016, 02:57 PM)
Fixed prices via subsidies are commonly applied in underdeveloped economies, give it time for resources and human capital to grow and be productive. It is costly and will be regressive and counter productive if held on for too long.

The scenario here is akward. While yelling developed nation and high income status, certain subsidies and free money remains while human capital, production and productivty are not improving.

No easy way out.
This is where it will hurt.

For >2 years, oil price stayed low, prices of goods go up becos RM depr.
When oil price goes back up, RM gain will not be able to stop inflation.

The only thing that will overcome this is fast increasing wages.
And that is not happening.
Result... everyone becomes poorer.
Except those with tens, hundreds of millions, billions.
*
well the poor become poor because of pressure of cost while the rich become rich because of smart investments / strategy.. later another problem will become much worse. Crime rate will shoot the roof..
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post Dec 11 2016, 08:21 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 9 2016, 11:18 PM)
Hahaha...
U still remember him/her
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Last time, we refer to "her". Now not sure anymore ! mega_shok.gif brows.gif

That person has set up for people to believe him/her. Migrate to Australia, USD trading 6 digit gain etc etc. doh.gif

This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 11 2016, 08:27 PM
icemanfx
post Dec 11 2016, 11:25 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 11 2016, 05:51 PM)
well it's would get worse later.. gomen is spending spending like no tomorrow.. they cut the necessary stuff / allocation but add more allocation for unnecessary spending.. 
well the poor become poor because of pressure of cost while the rich become rich because of smart investments / strategy.. later another problem will become much worse. Crime rate will shoot the roof..
*
For reasons there are only 3% of adults in the kangkong land have over us$100k net worth.

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post Dec 12 2016, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 11 2016, 11:25 PM)
For reasons there are only 3% of adults in the kangkong land have over us$100k net worth.
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shocking.gif
where do you get this info from? can share?

TSwil-i-am
post Dec 12 2016, 11:32 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 11 2016, 02:57 PM)
For >2 years, oil price stayed low, prices of goods go up becos RM depr.
When oil price goes back up, RM gain will not be able to stop inflation.

The only thing that will overcome this is fast increasing wages.
And that is not happening.
Result... everyone becomes poorer.
Except those with tens, hundreds of millions, billions.
*
Increase wages come with increase KPI
It's challenging for employee to meet numbers when the prevailing sentiment is poor
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 12 2016, 11:36 AM

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USD index spot down slightly today to 101.47 now
AVFAN
post Dec 12 2016, 12:01 PM

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oil price up 5%.

public holiday today, less action onshore or offshore.

same same 4.42.
nexona88
post Dec 12 2016, 12:15 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 11 2016, 11:25 PM)
For reasons there are only 3% of adults in the kangkong land have over us$100k net worth.
*
Hmm only 3%
That's very small number of individuals indeed...
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post Dec 12 2016, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 12 2016, 12:01 PM)
oil price up 5%.

public holiday today, less action onshore or offshore.

same same 4.42.
*
I noticed that when Msia is not working, then RM tends to be stronger, and vice-versa,... any similar observations please ?
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post Dec 12 2016, 12:24 PM

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QUOTE(limeuu @ Dec 10 2016, 03:10 PM)
No need wait....long queues already at mvm now....
*
That place is forever like that. People are flocking there to save the few ringgits. laugh.gif

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 12 2016, 12:01 PM)
oil price up 5%.

public holiday today, less action onshore or offshore.

same same 4.42.
*
For some reason, the US Dollar rose abit compared to two days ago.
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post Dec 12 2016, 12:25 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 11 2016, 11:25 PM)
For reasons there are only 3% of adults in the kangkong land have over us$100k net worth.
*
QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Dec 12 2016, 10:39 AM)
shocking.gif
where do you get this info from? can share?
*
QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 12 2016, 12:15 PM)
Hmm only 3%
That's very small number of individuals indeed...
*
Only 3% ? I find that hard to believe,... lots of ASX FP investors got more than USD100K worth inside,... maybe the source of this info will help to explain more to us.
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post Dec 12 2016, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 12 2016, 12:24 PM)
That place is forever like that. People are flocking there to save the few ringgits.  laugh.gif
*
Well MV always the hot spot..
From money changer, shopping to watching movies blush.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 12 2016, 12:30 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 12 2016, 12:23 PM)
I noticed that when Msia is not working, then RM tends to be stronger, and vice-versa,... any similar observations please ?
*
not really, just that it is usually flat-flat on holidays.

actually, at this time, there are things we don't know...

is BNM still intervening, $ sold or bought?
are the exporters complying?
are foreigners still selling mgs and bursa? (us 10 yr yield 2.493% today).

meanwhile, BNM is patting itself on the back...
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2091779
AVFAN
post Dec 12 2016, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 12 2016, 12:25 PM)
Only 3% ? I find that hard to believe,... lots of ASX FP investors got more than USD100K worth inside,... maybe the source of this info will help to explain more to us.
*
that statistic, whether $100k or 1mil, must be something from some int'l survey.

it is usually in $ NET WORTH.

there must be many with 1 mil in ASX and 2 mil in loans. biggrin.gif

no surprise if u look at levels of household debt.

moreover, 3% adult, say 3% of 10 mil = 300,000.

there are only 13,800 millionaires in KL urban in 2014.
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia...00-millionaires

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 12 2016, 12:44 PM
aspartame
post Dec 12 2016, 01:57 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 12 2016, 12:35 PM)
that statistic, whether $100k or 1mil, must be something from some int'l survey.

it is usually in $ NET WORTH.

there must be many with 1 mil in ASX and 2 mil in loans. biggrin.gif

no surprise if u look at levels of household debt.

moreover, 3% adult, say 3% of 10 mil = 300,000.

there are only 13,800 millionaires in KL urban in 2014.
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia...00-millionaires
*
Btw, the above article is flawed as one of the comment said

"What sort of reporting is this? London has 395,000 millionaires. New York, Tokyo, Paris and dozens of other cities have more than 13800 - even tiny Singapore. And what on earth does the comparison with Paraguay add to the discussion?"
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post Dec 12 2016, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 12 2016, 12:30 PM)
not really, just that it is usually flat-flat on holidays.

actually, at this time, there are things we don't know...

is BNM still intervening, $ sold or bought?
are the exporters complying?
are foreigners still selling mgs and bursa? (us 10 yr yield 2.493% today).

meanwhile, BNM is patting itself on the back...
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2091779
*
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 12 2016, 12:35 PM)
that statistic, whether $100k or 1mil, must be something from some int'l survey.

it is usually in $ NET WORTH.

there must be many with 1 mil in ASX and 2 mil in loans. biggrin.gif

no surprise if u look at levels of household debt.

moreover, 3% adult, say 3% of 10 mil = 300,000.

there are only 13,800 millionaires in KL urban in 2014.
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia...00-millionaires
*
QUOTE(aspartame @ Dec 12 2016, 01:57 PM)
Btw, the above article is flawed as one of the comment said

"What sort of reporting is this? London has 395,000 millionaires. New York, Tokyo, Paris and dozens of other cities have more than 13800 - even tiny Singapore. And what on earth does the comparison with Paraguay add to the discussion?"
*
Tq gents on the millionaire explanations,.... thumbsup.gif

As for the rate movement,... I noticed some events lately, before Msia starts working and after Msia starts working,... If I convert before KL starts, the rate was better. Then,... the MYR weakened later on,.... but my observation was for a few days only, hence not a sufficiently big sample. Tks bro,....

icemanfx
post Dec 12 2016, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Dec 12 2016, 10:39 AM)
shocking.gif
where do you get this info from? can share?
*
QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 12 2016, 12:15 PM)
Hmm only 3%
That's very small number of individuals indeed...
*
QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 12 2016, 12:25 PM)
Only 3% ? I find that hard to believe,... lots of ASX FP investors got more than USD100K worth inside,... maybe the source of this info will help to explain more to us.
*
Allianz Global Wealth Report 2016

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 12 2016, 04:10 PM
aspartame
post Dec 12 2016, 04:26 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 12 2016, 02:49 PM)
Allianz Global Wealth Report 2016
*
Interested to know if you have similar figures for Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia.
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 12 2016, 08:50 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 12 2016, 12:25 PM)
Only 3% ? I find that hard to believe,... lots of ASX FP investors got more than USD100K worth inside,... maybe the source of this info will help to explain more to us.
*
U seems to have insider info on the identity of the unit holders who own > USD100k biggrin.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 12 2016, 08:52 PM

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xe.com indicates MYR appreciate slightly to 4.4120 today
Lets c whether tmrw onshore rate will follow the direction
spiderman17
post Dec 13 2016, 12:20 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 12 2016, 12:30 PM)
not really, just that it is usually flat-flat on holidays.

actually, at this time, there are things we don't know...

is BNM still intervening, $ sold or bought?
are the exporters complying?
are foreigners still selling mgs and bursa? (us 10 yr yield 2.493% today).

meanwhile, BNM is patting itself on the back...
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2091779
*
Compliance is not by choice. Once the money comes into their account, the bank is mandated to convert 75% into myr. So, yes, the exporters are already complying.
SUSthe99percent1
post Dec 13 2016, 06:56 AM

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QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Dec 13 2016, 12:20 AM)
Compliance is not by choice. Once the money comes into their account, the bank is mandated to convert 75% into myr. So, yes, the exporters are already complying.
*
There are many loopholes. You can set up a bank account in cayman island and bypass this rule.
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 13 2016, 08:29 AM

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QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Dec 13 2016, 12:20 AM)
Compliance is not by choice. Once the money comes into their account, the bank is mandated to convert 75% into myr. So, yes, the exporters are already complying.
*
In fact, Bank's HQ will auto convert (75%) once monies reach M'sia b4 credit the same into respective a/c
prophetjul
post Dec 13 2016, 09:09 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 11 2016, 01:05 PM)
only in Malaysia where petrol price goes down, we are paying more taxes and removal of subsidies because the country is running out of money. when petrol price comes up,  we are charged more with the same reasons.

kinda shows how our government is fucking up their management of the country
*
We are in transition from subsidies. that's what subsidies do to a country....beggaring.

Plus of course our management style is reactive. Spend first , worry later. Let the future gens take care of the father's sins
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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 13 2016, 09:09 AM)
We are in transition from subsidies. that's what subsidies do to a country....beggaring.

Plus of course our management style is reactive. Spend first , worry later.  Let the future gens take care of the father's sins
*
and though I fear you may be right but I am happy there's a few here who knows how to invest in their monies.
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 13 2016, 09:16 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 13 2016, 09:12 AM)
and though I fear you may be right but I am happy there's a few here who knows how to invest in their monies.
*
I know a lot of Ppl subscribe to YOLO concept, wat say u hmm.gif
TOMEI-R
post Dec 13 2016, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 13 2016, 09:09 AM)
We are in transition from subsidies. that's what subsidies do to a country....beggaring.

Plus of course our management style is reactive. Spend first , worry later.  Let the future gens take care of the father's sins
*
Issue is, money saved from the transition are not spent somewhere most needed. No improvements on the economy either.

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 13 2016, 09:23 AM
prophetjul
post Dec 13 2016, 09:18 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 13 2016, 09:12 AM)
and though I fear you may be right but I am happy there's a few here who knows how to invest in their monies.
*
You know i am right! biggrin.gif

Hyperinflation will follow a country who does not manage its debt properly aka Greece, Zimbabwe

Malaysia looks like heading that way presently. We do not see the gomen having any austerity in its budget.
Infact it is handing out more gifts which are non accretive to its economy. It's like feeding drugs to the the druggies. High for a moment. The Debt hole will get deeper and soon it will be oo slippery to come out form, IF that has not happen yet.
Add corruption to that, the perfect storm beckons.


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post Dec 13 2016, 09:19 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 13 2016, 09:16 AM)
I know a lot of Ppl subscribe to YOLO concept, wat say u  hmm.gif
*
and there's some who let greed get in the way of investing. makes them no different from the Genting group lol

not the company but the customers who go Genting to YOLO. hahahah
prophetjul
post Dec 13 2016, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 13 2016, 09:17 AM)
Issue is,  money saved from the transition are not spent somewhere most needed.  No improvements on thd economy either.
*
You are right. Our culture does not indulge in proactive planning. It's all very reactive. May be too late to retriev the sins of our fore fathers..........DEBT. We may be too far down the slippery slope to be able to get back up.
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post Dec 13 2016, 09:23 AM

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QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Dec 13 2016, 12:20 AM)
Compliance is not by choice. Once the money comes into their account, the bank is mandated to convert 75% into myr. So, yes, the exporters are already complying.
*
QUOTE(the99percent1 @ Dec 13 2016, 06:56 AM)
There are many loopholes. You can set up a bank account in cayman island and bypass this rule.
*
QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 13 2016, 08:29 AM)
In fact, Bank's HQ will auto convert (75%) once monies reach M'sia b4 credit the same into respective a/c
*
The ruling is the exporter must bring back the export proceeds into the country, ie repatriate back to a licenced Msian onshore bank, within three months after the transaction. Hence, the exporter can wait and wait till the RM strengthens before TT'ing out from the overseas acct where the fund is parked.

Or,... the exporter may give a 6-month credit term to the overseas customer, then the overseas customer pays in 6 months time into the overseas bank acct., and the 6-month 'bringing-back period' will be for another 6-months from thereon. All in,.. one year to bring back and convert into the RM,....
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post Dec 13 2016, 09:34 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 13 2016, 09:23 AM)
The ruling is the exporter must bring back the export proceeds into the country, ie repatriate back to a licenced Msian onshore bank, within three months after the transaction. Hence, the exporter can wait and wait till the RM strengthens before TT'ing out from the overseas acct where the fund is parked.

Or,... the exporter may give a 6-month credit term to the overseas customer, then the overseas customer pays in 6 months time into the overseas bank acct., and the 6-month 'bringing-back period' will be for another 6-months from thereon. All in,.. one year to bring back and convert into the RM,....
*
What if I as an exporter decided to have offshore account in SG/UK/HK and ask my clients to bank in the money into those account. That way, I don't need to convert my earnings into RM right? Just a thought hmm.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 13 2016, 09:36 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 13 2016, 09:34 AM)
What if I as an exporter decided to have offshore account in SG/UK/HK and ask my clients to bank in the money into those account. That way, I don't need to convert my earnings into RM right? Just a thought  hmm.gif
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Yes, u r rite
AVFAN
post Dec 13 2016, 09:40 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 13 2016, 09:23 AM)
The ruling is the exporter must bring back the export proceeds into the country, ie repatriate back to a licenced Msian onshore bank, within three months after the transaction. Hence, the exporter can wait and wait till the RM strengthens before TT'ing out from the overseas acct where the fund is parked.

Or,... the exporter may give a 6-month credit term to the overseas customer, then the overseas customer pays in 6 months time into the overseas bank acct., and the 6-month 'bringing-back period' will be for another 6-months from thereon. All in,.. one year to bring back and convert into the RM,....
*
bnm/fin min will surely like everyone to bring back in RM instantaneously.

probably thinking ways to "force" all big and and small monies back.

but biz people are usually clever and well prepared.

if they blindly comply 100% quick and risk high exposure, they are not very good biz people.
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post Dec 13 2016, 10:07 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 13 2016, 09:34 AM)
What if I as an exporter decided to have offshore account in SG/UK/HK and ask my clients to bank in the money into those account. That way, I don't need to convert my earnings into RM right? Just a thought  hmm.gif
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 13 2016, 09:36 AM)
Yes, u r rite
*
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 13 2016, 09:40 AM)
bnm/fin min will surely like everyone to bring back in RM instantaneously.

probably thinking ways to "force" all big and and small monies back.

but biz people are usually clever and well prepared.

if they blindly comply 100% quick and risk high exposure, they are not very good biz people.
*
BNM should track the proceeds which are incurred during exports - then again, don't know whether they do this accurately or not ?? Chances are high they don't.

If wanting to force monies back,... the Indon govt is doing it now,... can see their model,... but if this happens, all ministers also 'kena',...

BUT : if exporters don't bring their money back, we also die,... if the RM can't appreciate.

So,..................which one do you guys want ????? I vote that the exporters bring back. Somebody will have to lose here, cause we are staying in Msia. WE hold the Msian Passport, and we are born in Msia.
cherroy
post Dec 13 2016, 10:14 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 13 2016, 09:34 AM)
What if I as an exporter decided to have offshore account in SG/UK/HK and ask my clients to bank in the money into those account. That way, I don't need to convert my earnings into RM right? Just a thought  hmm.gif
*
This was what happening prior before the new rules.

But if company continue to do this after the new rules set, then it clearly break rules.
Not something company want to do to disobey what BNM or authority has ordered.


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post Dec 13 2016, 10:16 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 13 2016, 10:07 AM)
BNM should track the proceeds which are incurred during exports - then again, don't know whether they do this accurately or not ?? Chances are high they don't.

If wanting to force monies back,... the Indon govt is doing it now,... can see their model,... but if this happens, all ministers also 'kena',...

BUT : if exporters don't bring their money back, we also die,... if the RM can't appreciate.

So,..................which one do you guys want ????? I vote that the exporters bring back. Somebody will have to lose here, cause we are staying in Msia. WE hold the Msian Passport, and we are born in Msia.
*
it will be naive to think a couple of simple strokes like this new rule or that new practice will fix something like a grossly mismanaged economy and a poor currency.

will take a lot more than that, will take decades to undo all the damage, if at all.
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 13 2016, 10:17 AM

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While v discuss, MYR is slowly moving towards 4.40 mark
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post Dec 13 2016, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 13 2016, 10:14 AM)
This was what happening prior before the new rules.

But if company continue to do this after the new rules set, then it clearly break rules.
Not something company want to do to disobey what BNM or authority has ordered.
*
BNM does not have control over offshore account. One can simply tell their clients/customer to bank in 100% into offshore account and return back 25% to Malaysia. I can't see how this ruling can force exporters to comply especially when BNM does not have control over offshore accounts unless they track all exports and invoke a fine on the exporters who don't comply.
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post Dec 13 2016, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 13 2016, 10:22 AM)
BNM does not have control over offshore account. One can simply tell their clients/customer to bank in 100% into offshore account and return back 25% to Malaysia. I can't see how this ruling can force exporters to comply especially when BNM does not have control over offshore accounts unless they track all exports and invoke a fine on the exporters who don't comply.
*
not so blatant la... that will amount to smuggling or illicit fund flows, big trouble if they wanna get u.

i m sure there r better ways to delay, minimize the effects.

successful exporters weren't born yesterday.

but here is not the right place for such discussions.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 13 2016, 10:31 AM
cherroy
post Dec 13 2016, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 13 2016, 10:22 AM)
BNM does not have control over offshore account. One can simply tell their clients/customer to bank in 100% into offshore account and return back 25% to Malaysia. I can't see how this ruling can force exporters to comply especially when BNM does not have control over offshore accounts unless they track all exports and invoke a fine on the exporters who don't comply.
*
BNM doesn't need to cross check with Offshore bank or need to track every single export.

You issued tax invoice on 13/12/2016, and the goods being delivered worth 10 mil to overseas clients, after 3 or 6 months later, where is the 7.5 mil sales proceed?
Fail to show/explain, break the rules.

TSwil-i-am
post Dec 13 2016, 10:36 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 13 2016, 10:30 AM)
not so blatant la... that will amount to smuggling or illicit fund flows, big trouble if they wanna get u.

i m sure there r better ways to delay, minimize the effects.

successful exporters weren't born yesterday.

but here is not the right place for such discussions.
*
I was make to understand affected exporters via their association have started to engage with BNM to fine-tune d nitty-gritty(s)
Lets c whether BNM willing to budge or status quo

Hansel
post Dec 13 2016, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 13 2016, 10:32 AM)
BNM doesn't need to cross check with Offshore bank or need to track every single export.

You issued tax invoice on 13/12/2016, and the goods being delivered worth 10 mil to overseas clients, after 3 or 6 months later, where is the 7.5 mil sales proceed?
Fail to show/explain, break the rules.
*
Knowing our govt,... 3 or 6 months later,...everybody will forget abt it, people would have changed, documents missing, hard disk crashed,... smile.gif

Unless they happen to target one or two lar,... see who 'gets the lottery',... BNM also wants to have an easier life,....
cherroy
post Dec 13 2016, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 13 2016, 10:37 AM)
Knowing our govt,... 3 or 6 months later,...everybody will forget abt it, people would have changed, documents missing, hard disk crashed,...  smile.gif

Unless they happen to target one or two lar,... see who 'gets the lottery',... BNM also wants to have an easier life,....
*
Running an export company with millions of export revenue, you don't want to risk such thing.

Business just want to make business and profit, they won't want to break any rules that lead to complication to their businesses.




AVFAN
post Dec 13 2016, 12:41 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 13 2016, 10:37 AM)
Knowing our govt,... 3 or 6 months later,...everybody will forget abt it, people would have changed, documents missing, hard disk crashed,...  smile.gif

Unless they happen to target one or two lar,... see who 'gets the lottery',... BNM also wants to have an easier life,....
*
biggrin.gif

well, if bnm is that hardworking, we should all hope they don't just go after easy legit targets but also illicit big guns responsible for this:

illicit funds outflow - quite an achievement - world ranking consistently no. 5 for such a small economy. says a lot about how serious everyone here is about FX. who wants to "predict" what the nos. will be for 2014, 2015, 2016?

QUOTE
Malaysia has once again attained the unenviable “honour” of being in the top five countries which registered the highest average illicit financial flows over the decade.
According to the latest annual report by Washington-based Global Financial Integrity (GFI), Malaysia had lost an accumulated amount of US$418.542 billion (RM1.8 trillion) since 2004.
In 2013 alone, Malaysia lost a total of US$48.25 billion, according to the global financial watchdog.
The illegal capital outflows, said the report, stem from tax evasion, crime, corruption, and other illicit activities.
Malaysia has also remained stagnant in its position as among the top five countries for illegal capital flight.
After being ranked second worst in 2010, it “improved” to fourth place in 2011 and remains in fifth place since 2012.
For 2013, Malaysia is once again ranked behind China, Russia, Mexico and India.
Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/324458#ixzz4SgpEJnvd

Malaysia ranks No 5 in illicit outflows, GFI
Posted on 17 December 2014 - 05:38am
PETALING JAYA: Malaysia lost over US$48.93 billion (RM170.7 billion) in illicit outflows in 2012, making it a cumulative US$394.87 billion during the 10-year period from 2003 through 2012, according to the international anti-corruption group Global Financial Integrity's (GFI) latest report.
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1269599



and something to read:

QUOTE
What rising oil means for interest rates
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/12/what-rising...rest-rates.html
How Trump's tax plan will hurt Malaysia
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/365998
TRUMP’S TAX PLAN: THE HIT ON MALAYSIA
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/trumps-t...it-on-malaysia/


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 13 2016, 01:31 PM
nexona88
post Dec 13 2016, 03:31 PM

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Still floating around 4.40/4.41

Saw in newspaper today, minister rahman dahlan said, oil production is good for Malaysian economy..

But sad news is oil expected to be USD 65/bbl later when all the production cut is real..

So guys u know what will happen right.. Fuel price up, everything also follows bangwall.gif
spiderman17
post Dec 13 2016, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 13 2016, 09:23 AM)
The ruling is the exporter must bring back the export proceeds into the country, ie repatriate back to a licenced Msian onshore bank, within three months after the transaction. Hence, the exporter can wait and wait till the RM strengthens before TT'ing out from the overseas acct where the fund is parked.

Or,... the exporter may give a 6-month credit term to the overseas customer, then the overseas customer pays in 6 months time into the overseas bank acct., and the 6-month 'bringing-back period' will be for another 6-months from thereon. All in,.. one year to bring back and convert into the RM,....
*
if that's the existing term, then ok. else, businesses won't go lengthening payment terms just for the sake of delaying fund return.
cash cycle is much much more important than forex rate. every single turn generate gross-margin-%

QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 13 2016, 09:34 AM)
What if I as an exporter decided to have offshore account in SG/UK/HK and ask my clients to bank in the money into those account. That way, I don't need to convert my earnings into RM right? Just a thought  hmm.gif
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you still have an account, that needs to be audited annually and submitted to ssm as long as you're malaysia-registered business.

QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 13 2016, 10:37 AM)
Knowing our govt,... 3 or 6 months later,...everybody will forget abt it, people would have changed, documents missing, hard disk crashed,...  smile.gif

Unless they happen to target one or two lar,... see who 'gets the lottery',... BNM also wants to have an easier life,....
*
bnm don't need to check. the external auditors will have to verify the cash flow.
some local bank(s) have already taken the defensive measure of requiring invoice to be submitted as supporting document for returning fund exceeding xxx amount.
previously for amla purpose...now can use for this as well.
AVFAN
post Dec 13 2016, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 9 2016, 02:03 PM)
Saw in newspaper today, got few predictions for 2017 for myr/USD rate..
Nomura - 4.76
*
nomura... here's why:

QUOTE
Nomura expects ringgit to fall further in 2017 BY LIDIANA ROSLI - 13 DECEMBER 2016 @ 3:10 PM Facebook 0 Twitter Share 0 KUALA LUMPUR: Global financial services firm Nomura expects the ringgit to tread at RM4.52 against the dollar by the end of this year, and to fall further to RM4.76 by the end of 2017. In its equities and economic outlook briefing held here earlier today, Southeast Asia Economist, Euben Paracuelles and Southeast Asia Equity Strategist, Mixo Das, outlined the justifications for this. "First of all, we are expecting a rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) from the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) this month," said Paracuelles. "We are also expecting two more rate hikes in 2017 from the Fed. In response, we expect Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to cut interest rates, also twice next year," he added. On top of that, he stressed that Malaysia, alongside Singapore, have been marked "underperform" within Southeast Asia because of multiple compression on its respective economies. "This, of course, is a factor, but Malaysia also has to contend with ongoing political noise that has been (going on) for a while," said Paracuelles. "We are expecting a General Election perhaps in the second quarter of next year and if this is to take place, it will exacerbate ongoing uncertainties even more," he added. Nomura also expects Malaysia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow at a rate of 3.7 per cent, well below BNM's projections of 4.2 per cent.
Read More : http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/12/196483/...ll-further-2017



QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 13 2016, 03:31 PM)
Still floating around 4.40/4.41
Saw in newspaper today, minister rahman dahlan said, oil production is good for Malaysian economy..
But sad news is oil expected to be USD 65/bbl later when all the production cut is real..
So guys u know what will happen right.. Fuel price up, everything also follows bangwall.gif
*
when oil goes to 65, our petrol price may be rm3 per liter if unsubsidized.

good? i can't imagine what happens then.


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 13 2016, 04:16 PM
nexona88
post Dec 13 2016, 05:11 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 13 2016, 04:13 PM)
nomura... here's why:
when oil goes to 65, our petrol price may be rm3 per liter if unsubsidized.

good? i can't imagine what happens then.
*
thanks for the nomura report link icon_rolleyes.gif

well the minister said good for Malaysia.. seems like Brunei also join & would cut production..
I think the 65 pricing won't be so soon.. maybe Q2.. so we can expect GE14 before that.. because if retail fuel rm3/L, many people would be very angry.. and it will have bad impact on ruling regime devil.gif

wonder if oil @ 65, what would be the USD/MYR rate be?? hmm.gif hmm.gif still 4.50?? or 4.00? worse @ 5.00? hmm.gif hmm.gif

This post has been edited by nexona88: Dec 13 2016, 05:12 PM
icemanfx
post Dec 13 2016, 05:20 PM

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Believe petronas is the single largest exporter, other major exporters are MNC having manufacturing here. Compulsory conversion to myr will interrupt these MNC tax planning, cost allocation and currency hedging; is detrimental to attracting fdi in the long term.

Despite lower cost in the kangkong land, there are reasons why MNC preferred to set up their regional hq on the little red dot down south.

With numbers of foreign property ownership in iskandar and Kv, it will be interesting when these exodus.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 13 2016, 05:37 PM
nexona88
post Dec 13 2016, 06:09 PM

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BNM closing @ 4.4390

vs

XE closing @ 4.43411

seems like not much gap like previously smile.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 13 2016, 11:17 PM

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a look at mgs... 4.12% today, stable.

bursa - flat.

$/rm - flat.

is it good that all is flat?! tongue.gif



meanwhile, us market indices at all time high, again.

dow at 19,000, should get to 20,000 very soon.

looks like more and more cash $ from all over is piling into US equities.

the trump plan to bring $ and jobs back to USA is moving.

and with fed rate hikes looming, little chance $ get weaker in the near-mid term, imo.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 13 2016, 11:31 PM
Hansel
post Dec 14 2016, 10:23 AM

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I saw on Bloomberg this morning that EM Currencies and Stocks are moving in tandem with the US Mkts overnight,...

I don't see out RM strengthening against the USD this morning. The RM even weakened vs the AUD and the SGD compared to yesterday,...

Did I miss something ??
AVFAN
post Dec 14 2016, 10:38 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 14 2016, 10:23 AM)
I saw on Bloomberg this morning that EM Currencies and Stocks are moving in tandem with the US Mkts overnight,...

I don't see out RM strengthening against the USD this morning. The RM even weakened vs the AUD and the SGD compared to yesterday,...

Did I miss something ??
*
from what i see in the last few days...

.. the exporters saga has indeed curbed the offshore volatility.
.. bnm continuously intervening to hold at 4.4x.
.. net buying or selling $, we won't know until next fx reserves report or they say something.

it will take bigger movements in the $ to know for sure.

fri morning after fed move will probably reveal something.

still, in the longer term, we are back to the same thing - what will help the RM appr sustainably?
Hansel
post Dec 14 2016, 11:45 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 14 2016, 10:38 AM)
from what i see in the last few days...

.. the exporters saga has indeed curbed the offshore volatility.
.. bnm continuously intervening to hold at 4.4x.
.. net buying or selling $, we won't know until next fx reserves report or they say something.

it will take bigger movements in the $ to know for sure.

fri morning after fed move will probably reveal something.

still, in the longer term, we are back to the same thing - what will help the RM appr sustainably?
*
Bro,... it would be tomorrow morning, right ? The press conference with Ms Yellen is on the coming morning at 2 am,....

And then why did Bloomberg mentioned specifically that EM Currencies gained, and I even saw they wrote the RM and the Won gained against the $ this morning,... I did not study the Won, but I sure know my RM did not strengthen,.. in fact it even weakened this morning when I looked.

I think no chance to strengthen already,... this will be the new norm,.....
Shanglin
post Dec 14 2016, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 14 2016, 11:45 AM)
Bro,... it would be tomorrow morning, right ? The press conference with Ms Yellen is on the coming morning at 2 am,....

And then why did Bloomberg mentioned specifically that EM Currencies gained, and I even saw they wrote the RM and the Won gained against the $ this morning,... I did not study the Won, but I sure know my RM did not strengthen,.. in fact it even weakened this morning when I looked.

I think no chance to strengthen already,... this will be the new norm,.....
*
IMHO I don't think RM will be strengthened in months to come and in fact it will be gradually going south, Reaching RM5 to 1 USD it's just a matter of time. just look at how sgd fetch against myr for past 20 years one would get the idea how rm perform. what our authority doing e.g. enforce the export funds to be repatriated back to myr is just consider little gimmick to strengthen RM in short term but at the expenses of long term well being of our economy, it's not well thought plan at all. No one would like to do business in a country with so much restriction in place, what investor want is open economy with minimal hindrance to do business with.
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post Dec 14 2016, 12:33 PM

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if thing are so easy as it seems, eg. just instruct exporter bring back the export fund to home currency will eventually prop up the home currency, then every central bank in the world will follow and do the same and there will be no currency crisis would ever or less likely happen. All others like Egypt or Argentina alike will be saved but in fact it's not. Our authority seems to look smart but in fact it's not. There are so many elements and issue involve and we are dealing with the world, not just Malaysia. my two cents
Ramjade
post Dec 14 2016, 12:33 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 14 2016, 10:38 AM)
from what i see in the last few days...

.. the exporters saga has indeed curbed the offshore volatility.
.. bnm continuously intervening to hold at 4.4x.
.. net buying or selling $, we won't know until next fx reserves report or they say something.

it will take bigger movements in the $ to know for sure.

fri morning after fed move will probably reveal something.

still, in the longer term, we are back to the same thing - what will help the RM appr sustainably?
*
Problem in the US. We just need some major problem in the US. Trump doing some stupid things, US debts being questioned again.
icemanfx
post Dec 14 2016, 12:47 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 14 2016, 12:33 PM)
Problem in the US. We just need some major problem in the US. Trump doing some stupid things, US debts being questioned again.
*
With a few multi billionaires in US cabinet, believe they won't harm their own wealth.

Hansel
post Dec 14 2016, 01:08 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 14 2016, 12:47 PM)
With a few multi billionaires in US cabinet, believe they won't harm their own wealth.
[SIZE=14]
*
Yes,... this is the thing,.... even if there are going to be any problems, these people will find a way out for the USA,.... Looking at things, maybe my man DT is smart after all,....
AVFAN
post Dec 14 2016, 01:45 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 14 2016, 11:45 AM)
Bro,... it would be tomorrow morning, right ? The press conference with Ms Yellen is on the coming morning at 2 am,....
And then why did Bloomberg mentioned specifically that EM Currencies gained, and I even saw they wrote the RM and the Won gained against the $ this morning,... I did not study the Won, but I sure know my RM did not strengthen,.. in fact it even weakened this morning when I looked.

I think no chance to strengthen already,... this will be the new norm,.....
*
Amended, apologies..

My bad, yes... meeting dec 13-14, announcement dec 14 afternoon, i.e, tmrw thu morning local time.
maybe "EM" now excludes RM which is in a unique situation?

QUOTE(Shanglin @ Dec 14 2016, 12:33 PM)
if thing are so easy as it seems, eg. just instruct exporter bring back the export fund to home currency will eventually prop up the home currency, then every central bank in the world will follow and do the same and there will be no currency crisis would ever or less likely  happen. All others like Egypt or Argentina alike will be saved but in fact it's not. Our authority seems to look smart but in fact it's not. There are so many elements and issue involve and we are dealing with the world, not just Malaysia. my two cents
*
yes, which is why it is a fallacy to think u get fixed something bad and big that has gone on for so long with something small and fast.
only small brains with a twisted attitude in life think that is possible.

QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 14 2016, 12:33 PM)
Problem in the US. We just need some major problem in the US. Trump doing some stupid things, US debts being questioned again.
*
really, i do not think u know what u r saying.

if usa gets another major crisis like subprime 2007, all countries will suffer.
the small poorly managed ones incl msia will hurt even more.
u do not want that to happen.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 14 2016, 03:53 PM
Jolokia467
post Dec 14 2016, 01:57 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 14 2016, 01:45 PM)
meeting dec 14-15, announcement dec 15 afternoon usa time, i.e. fri morning here, 2am or so.
maybe "EM" now excludes RM which is in a unique situation?
yes, which is why it is a fallacy to think u get fixed something bad and big that has gone on for so long with something small and fast.
only small brains with a twisted attitude in life think that is possible.
really, i do not think u know what u r saying.

if usa gets another major crisis like subprime 2007, all countries will suffer.
the small poorly managed ones incl msia will hurt even more.
u do not want that to happen.
*
Economy bro.. shakehead.gif shakehead.gif
Ramjade
post Dec 14 2016, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 14 2016, 01:45 PM)
really, i do not think u know what u r saying.

if usa gets another major crisis like subprime 2007, all countries will suffer.
the small poorly managed ones incl msia will hurt even more.
u do not want that to happen.
*
Actually not really. Because of 2007-8 incident, US went on QE. QE causes money to flow out of US into Asia Pacific with Malaysia being one of the destination where money from US comes in.
icemanfx
post Dec 14 2016, 04:03 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 14 2016, 02:13 PM)
Actually not really. Because of 2007-8 incident, US went on QE. QE causes money to flow out of US into Asia Pacific with Malaysia being one of the destination where money from US comes in.
*
The next US financial crisis and response will be unlike 2008.

Believe the kangkong land has yet to experience the aftershock of US tapered QE.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 14 2016, 04:53 PM
Ramjade
post Dec 14 2016, 06:55 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 14 2016, 04:03 PM)
The next US financial crisis and response will be unlike 2008.

Believe the kangkong land has yet to experience the aftershock of US tapered QE.
*
Money already flow out already. RM already drop. I believed Malaysia is already experiencing aftershock of US tapered QE
AVFAN
post Dec 14 2016, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(Jolokia467 @ Dec 14 2016, 01:57 PM)
Economy bro..  shakehead.gif  shakehead.gif
*
?

what about the economy?
icemanfx
post Dec 14 2016, 07:38 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 14 2016, 06:55 PM)
Money already flow out already. RM already drop. I believed Malaysia is already experiencing aftershock of US tapered QE
*
You ain't see nothing yet.

nexona88
post Dec 14 2016, 10:36 PM

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Malaysian ringgit likely to continue depreciating until end-2017, says Scotiabank
http://www.econotimes.com/Malaysian-ringgi...otiabank-449265


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post Dec 14 2016, 11:49 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 14 2016, 10:36 PM)
Malaysian ringgit likely to continue depreciating until end-2017, says Scotiabank
http://www.econotimes.com/Malaysian-ringgi...otiabank-449265
*
there goes my Italy trip. fml.
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post Dec 14 2016, 11:52 PM

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The weirdest thing about the Ringgit currently is that although oil prices increased at certain time, the ringgit didn't appreciate proportionately, It's safe to say that the "political environment" is the key factor of the depreciation of the Ringgit apart from the Fed's rate hike ?
shankar_dass93
post Dec 15 2016, 03:05 AM

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Fed raises rates by 0.25%.

Expects 3 rate hikes in 2017.
AVFAN
post Dec 15 2016, 03:09 AM

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QUOTE(shankar_dass93 @ Dec 14 2016, 11:52 PM)
The weirdest thing about the Ringgit currently is that although oil prices increased at certain time, the ringgit didn't appreciate proportionately, It's safe to say that the "political environment" is the key factor of the depreciation of the Ringgit apart from the Fed's rate hike ?
*
msia is a marginal net oil exporter alto it exports quite a bit of gas.

the impact of oil price is not big anymore, more so now that it will cut some production under new opec-non opec deal.



latest:

FED HIKES, FORESEES 3 MORE HIKES IN 2017

bnm will be busy tmrw.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 15 2016, 03:19 AM
Hansel
post Dec 15 2016, 04:24 AM

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Fed news conference running now,... rate rise confirmed this morning.

BANKS EXTEND RALLY AS FED SEES THREE RATE HIKES.

FED RATE PATH SINKS BONDS, OIL, EURO, YEN.

FED RAISES RATES, BOOSTS OUTLOOK FOR BORROWING COSTS IN 2017.
Hansel
post Dec 15 2016, 05:18 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 14 2016, 10:36 PM)
Malaysian ringgit likely to continue depreciating until end-2017, says Scotiabank
http://www.econotimes.com/Malaysian-ringgi...otiabank-449265
*
QUOTE(shankar_dass93 @ Dec 14 2016, 11:52 PM)
The weirdest thing about the Ringgit currently is that although oil prices increased at certain time, the ringgit didn't appreciate proportionately, It's safe to say that the "political environment" is the key factor of the depreciation of the Ringgit apart from the Fed's rate hike ?
*
The Ringgit has decoupled from oil price since two months or so ago. I'm glad I've been converting out earlier,...
nexona88
post Dec 15 2016, 10:03 AM

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around 4.46 now..
Bnm would be busy for next year devil.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 15 2016, 10:14 AM

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with rate hike and more coming in 2017...

us bond yield 2.582%

$ index 102.3

yen.. 117

euro.. 1.05

sgd.. 1.437

rm.. 4.461


i would think rm should be closer to 4.50 by now if not for...

bursa and mgs should see a bit more selling.

if wanna buy fx, good time now, i wud say.


anyway, what we see today.. was anything unexpected? tongue.gif


ChAOoz
post Dec 15 2016, 10:19 AM

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Everything was in line with expectation just maybe for the 3 rate hike forecast which is extra info.

But would expect the myr to weakened and probably rebound only on next year.
Hansel
post Dec 15 2016, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 15 2016, 10:14 AM)
with rate hike and more coming in 2017...

us bond yield 2.582%

$ index 102.3

yen.. 117

euro.. 1.05

sgd.. 1.437

rm.. 4.461
i would think rm should be closer to 4.50 by now if not for...

bursa and mgs should see a bit more selling.

if wanna buy fx, good time now, i wud say.
anyway, what we see today.. was anything unexpected? tongue.gif
*
QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Dec 15 2016, 10:19 AM)
Everything was in line with expectation just maybe for the 3 rate hike forecast which is extra info.

But would expect the myr to weakened and probably rebound only on next year.
*
I think the 25bp hike is priced in everywhere already,... no issue there,..

The only mkt movers are :-

1) the no of hikes next yr.
2) the tone of the Fed Chair.
3) how the Fed Chair intends to work with DT.

I think 2) and 3) above contradicted mkt expectations highly, hence the selloff seen now.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 15 2016, 10:44 AM

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Sad... thought it was a positive sign that MYR strengtened a little bit over the past week. Now its going down again.
AVFAN
post Dec 15 2016, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 15 2016, 10:25 AM)
I think the 25bp hike is priced in everywhere already,... no issue there,..

The only mkt movers are :-

1) the no of hikes next yr.
2) the tone of the Fed Chair.
3) how the Fed Chair intends to work with DT.

I think 2) and 3) above contradicted mkt expectations highly, hence the selloff seen now.
*
yep, the 25bps was pretty much 99% priced in.

the continued strength of the $ and falling bond prices is a result of the hawkish stance for 2017 in the messages.

and so, here we go again... given all that has happened...

what WILL sustainably appreciate the RM in 2017?

more controls? raise taxes, hike int rates? cut budget spending? austerity?

we already have an idea, don't we?

how will other financially mismanaged economies manage this onslaught?



one good thing came out of this fed saga - oil prices retreated to 50.xx.

that will ease some pressure off a potentially hefty petrol price incr on 1 jan 2017.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 15 2016, 10:55 AM
Hansel
post Dec 15 2016, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 15 2016, 10:49 AM)
yep, the 25bps was pretty much 99% priced in.

the continued strength of the $ and falling bond prices is a result of the hawkish stance for 2017 in the messages.

and so, here we go again... given all that has happened...

what WILL sustainably appreciate the RM in 2017?

more controls? raise taxes, hike int rates? cut budget spending? austerity?

we already have an idea, don't we?

how will other financially mismanaged economies manage this onslaught?
one good thing came out of this fed saga - oil prices retreated to 50.xx.

that will ease some pressure off a potentially hefty petrol price incr on 1 jan 2017.
*
thumbsup.gif Good analysis there, AV,... Going back to RM strength, looks like there is still nothing in the horizon to re-strengthen the RM again. In fact, if we wait longer, the RM will even continue to weaken, making us lose more purchasing power. These are indeed very abnormal times.
AVFAN
post Dec 15 2016, 03:57 PM

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if u hv $ now, u probably want to keep it for a while.

QUOTE
Why the dollar rally may just be getting started

After the Fed's call, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, jumped as high as 102.62, its highest since 2003, from under 101 before the decision.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/14/why-the-dol...ng-started.html

AVFAN
post Dec 15 2016, 07:46 PM

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ooo....

$ index 103.10

euro 1.04
yen 118.5

rm still at 4.46, nice of bnm! tongue.gif
SUSthe99percent1
post Dec 16 2016, 08:57 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 15 2016, 07:46 PM)
ooo....

$ index 103.10

euro 1.04
yen 118.5

rm still at 4.46, nice of bnm! tongue.gif
*
Last week they burn 90 billion to maintain that rate.

This week they will burn another 180billion.
kit2
post Dec 16 2016, 09:15 AM

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QUOTE(the99percent1 @ Dec 16 2016, 08:57 AM)
Last week they burn 90 billion to maintain that rate.

This week they will burn another 180billion.
*
why cant they make all exporters convert 100% of their usd proceeds into myr? better let the exporters defend the ringgit. smile.gif
SUSlowya
post Dec 16 2016, 09:43 AM

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see how MYR performs against all other currencies.


Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
AVFAN
post Dec 16 2016, 10:27 AM

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QUOTE(the99percent1 @ Dec 16 2016, 08:57 AM)
Last week they burn 90 billion to maintain that rate.

This week they will burn another 180billion.
*
think it was 1.9 bil.

but yes, little doubt more reserves now being burned to keep it <4.50.

imo, it won't hold for long.

even the SGD is expected to slide to 1.50 with USD next year.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...low-amid-easing
nexona88
post Dec 16 2016, 12:04 PM

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Hong Leong IB expect the ringgit to move around 4.20 - 4.50 range next week..

And 4.10 - 4.40 range next year..
AVFAN
post Dec 16 2016, 12:15 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 16 2016, 12:04 PM)
Hong Leong IB expect the ringgit to move around 4.20 - 4.50 range next week..

And 4.10 - 4.40 range next year..
*
clever prediction! biggrin.gif

if u go to HLB or Ambank or CIMB now, you will pay >4.50 for $1.

already saw that in Ambank 2 days ago.


latest report...

QUOTE
Malaysia is reportedly one of Asia’s worst-hit economies in the face of rising US interest rates and the dollar.
According to Wall Street Journal today, foreign investors sold US$5.3 billion of Malaysian stocks and bonds in November, the largest monthly outflow since September 2011, according to ANZ Bank.
"That is almost a quarter of the US$22.1 billion pulled from emerging markets in the region, excluding China,"
wrote WSJ.
The bulk of this, it said, was US$4.5 billion of bonds, the biggest monthly debt outflow on record, according to ANZ.
This comes as the ringgit continues to slide amidst a loss of market confidence in the country's financial standing, of which the growing 1MDB scandal is one of the contributing factors.
"Despite the government’s various attempts to support the currency, the ringgit has lost 6.5% of its value against the greenback since the US election, hitting a nearly 19-year low on Nov 30.
"On Thursday, the currency weakened 0.9%, following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its first rate increase in 2016," wrote WSJ.
"Malaysia’s Achilles' heel is the high level of foreign ownership of its government bonds.
"Foreign money is flighty, a factor that can accelerate a liquidity crunch during times of stress," the financial daily reported.
Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/366301#ixzz4SyHxLmOA


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 16 2016, 12:20 PM
nexona88
post Dec 16 2016, 12:17 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 16 2016, 12:15 PM)
clever prediction! biggrin.gif

if u go to HLB or Ambank or CIMB now, you will pay >4.50 for $1.

already saw that in Ambank 2 days ago.
*
Lucky didn't say 4.80 devil.gif

Then someone will get "memo" blush.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 16 2016, 01:59 PM

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QUOTE(kit2 @ Dec 16 2016, 09:15 AM)
why cant they make all exporters convert 100% of their usd proceeds into myr? better let the exporters defend the ringgit. smile.gif
*
QUOTE
BNM ruling impeding growth, says Top Glove
FMT Reporters | December 16, 2016
World’s largest glove manufacturer unhappy with directive requiring exporters to convert 75% of their proceeds into ringgit, as it reports a 43% decline in quarter one profits.
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...says-top-glove/

nexona88
post Dec 16 2016, 03:52 PM

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Ringgit at 14-month low as Fed's confidence dents Asia FX
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...-dents-asia-fx/
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post Dec 16 2016, 03:55 PM

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http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/w...ainst-us-dollar


Sure RM5/USD is on the way
Hansel
post Dec 16 2016, 04:04 PM

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RM is a gone case !
icemanfx
post Dec 16 2016, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 16 2016, 12:15 PM)
clever prediction! biggrin.gif

if u go to HLB or Ambank or CIMB now, you will pay >4.50 for $1.

already saw that in Ambank 2 days ago.
latest report...
*
What need to be sold is sold, funds managers are on holiday, don't expect any forex excitement in next few weeks except tax increase. Next wave likely end Q1/17.

nexona88
post Dec 16 2016, 04:25 PM

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wow just wow

even BNM rate is already 4.47 MYR

so close to reach 5.00 devil.gif
TOMEI-R
post Dec 16 2016, 04:28 PM

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Still very far..... However, other currencies like SGD and Aussie Dollar seems to be falling against USD too.
ILoveLalat.net
post Dec 16 2016, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 16 2016, 04:25 PM)
wow just wow

even BNM rate is already 4.47 MYR

so close to reach 5.00 devil.gif
*
4.47 to 4.50 is the point of heavy resistance. Breaking this trend may bound for more weakness towards 4.7.

We are really close, if this break. Gone case.
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post Dec 16 2016, 05:58 PM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Dec 16 2016, 05:03 PM)
4.47 is so close to 4.5, not 4.7 which is close to 5

can anyone believe that after fed hike myr only move 0.02?, myr so keng, sgd jpy gbp all drop more than myr.

bnm already fix usd/myr below 4.5, 4.47 is not the real exchange rate.

if we can get 4.5 rate, must transfer all our money out because the real rate is more than 5.00 already.
transfer, jangan tak transfer.
*
Please proceed
AVFAN
post Dec 16 2016, 06:02 PM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Dec 16 2016, 05:03 PM)
can anyone believe that after fed hike myr only move 0.02?, myr so keng, sgd jpy gbp all drop more than myr.
*
u and i saw and understood this.

i hope the rest did too.
Hansel
post Dec 16 2016, 06:16 PM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Dec 16 2016, 05:03 PM)
4.47 is so close to 4.5, not 4.7 which is close to 5

can anyone believe that after fed hike myr only move 0.02?, myr so keng, sgd jpy gbp all drop more than myr.

bnm already fix usd/myr below 4.5, 4.47 is not the real exchange rate.

if we can get 4.5 rate, must transfer all our money out because the real rate is more than 5.00 already.
transfer, jangan tak transfer.
*
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 16 2016, 06:02 PM)
u and i saw and understood this.

i hope the rest did too.
*
Yeah,... I think xpmm has a point there,... But there is no hurry to convert, right ?? Since our central bank is going to hold this rate and defend the MYR, we can convert anytime, as long as they have the power to defend the currency,....

AVFAN
post Dec 16 2016, 06:39 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 16 2016, 06:16 PM)
Yeah,... I think xpmm has a point there,... But there is no hurry to convert, right ?? Since our central bank is going to hold this rate and defend the MYR, we can convert anytime, as long as they have the power to defend the currency,....
*
u saw that too earlier when u commented "how come other em currencies...?". biggrin.gif

if one cannot see that, it will be hard to foresee what comes next.

intervention... long how, how much fx reserves, what controls next... good point.

the trouble is our major economic policies are largely dictated by politicians... u know...

they may do something "extraordinary" or just let go.

so, we will just have to see what we will see.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 16 2016, 07:15 PM
nexona88
post Dec 16 2016, 06:52 PM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Dec 16 2016, 05:15 PM)
4.47 to 4.50 is the point of heavy resistance. Breaking this trend may bound for more weakness towards 4.7.

We are really close, if this break. Gone case.
*
yes. it's because of BNM...

but for how long? soon sure will break the barriers biggrin.gif devil.gif
TOMEI-R
post Dec 16 2016, 10:00 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 16 2016, 06:39 PM)
u saw that too earlier when u commented "how come other em currencies...?". biggrin.gif

if one cannot see that, it will be hard to foresee what comes next.

intervention... long how, how much fx reserves, what controls next... good point.

the trouble is our major economic policies are largely dictated by politicians... u know...

they may do something "extraordinary" or just let go.

so, we will just have to see what we will see.
*
Extraordinary? Peg the Ringgit? What extraordinary move can they make? Or you were implying letting the Rm freefall itself?
nexona88
post Dec 16 2016, 11:15 PM

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Ringgit oversold by 10% to 12%, says Public IB Research
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/r...lic-ib-research

boleh percaya kah this news devil.gif
SUSthe99percent1
post Dec 17 2016, 01:28 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 16 2016, 04:28 PM)
Still very far..... However, other currencies like SGD and Aussie Dollar seems to be falling against USD too.
*
All nations will have no choice but to raise their interest rates too
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post Dec 17 2016, 01:39 PM

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Fuhlamak, 4.48
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post Dec 17 2016, 01:55 PM

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Waah.. once that Ringgit break the 4.5 barrier, I think it will likely get a flush to 4.7. sweat.gif


puchongite
post Dec 17 2016, 02:10 PM

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Go back a few pages, check particularly all those big guns' prediction about ringgit, some top guns say rinngit is stabilizing at 4.1 ....


TOMEI-R
post Dec 17 2016, 02:12 PM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Dec 17 2016, 02:10 PM)
Go back a few pages, check particularly all those big guns' prediction about ringgit, some top guns say rinngit is stabilizing at 4.1 ....
*
Those 'big guns' are usually good in that. Just like the usual Malaysian policitians.
Hansel
post Dec 17 2016, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Dec 16 2016, 05:03 PM)
4.47 is so close to 4.5, not 4.7 which is close to 5

can anyone believe that after fed hike myr only move 0.02?, myr so keng, sgd jpy gbp all drop more than myr.

bnm already fix usd/myr below 4.5, 4.47 is not the real exchange rate.

if we can get 4.5 rate, must transfer all our money out because the real rate is more than 5.00 already.
transfer, jangan tak transfer.
*
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 16 2016, 06:39 PM)
u saw that too earlier when u commented "how come other em currencies...?". biggrin.gif

if one cannot see that, it will be hard to foresee what comes next.

intervention... long how, how much fx reserves, what controls next... good point.

the trouble is our major economic policies are largely dictated by politicians... u know...

they may do something "extraordinary" or just let go.

so, we will just have to see what we will see.
*
Going back to the points in the above,... I discovered the following :-

I calculated if I am to use the current exchange rates to convert directly from the RM into the AUD, compared against if I am to convert from the RM into the USD first, then after that into the AUD at about the same time, I will spend RM10 less for RM100 to buy the same amount of AUD worth of conversions.

Hence, yes, I believed the actual value f the RM right now is actually more that 4.47,... perhaps even touching as high as RM5 per USD. But because of help from our central bank, we can 'enjoy' a lower USD. Yeah,.........

....... I await further comments,........


AVFAN
post Dec 17 2016, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 17 2016, 04:33 PM)
Going back to the points in the above,... I discovered the following :-

I calculated if I am to use the current exchange rates to convert directly from the RM into the AUD, compared against if I am to convert from the RM into the USD first, then after that into the AUD at about the same time, I will spend RM10 less for RM100 to buy the same amount of AUD worth of conversions.

Hence, yes, I believed the actual value f the RM right now is actually more that 4.47,... perhaps even touching as high as RM5 per USD. But because of help from our central bank, we can 'enjoy' a lower USD. Yeah,.........

....... I await further comments,........
*
u mean to get same AUD, u spend less RM doing RM->AUD than RM->USD->AUD?

if so, that is only normal.

if u mean cheaper the other way round, that will be something interesting... arbitrage opportunity?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 17 2016, 08:39 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 17 2016, 05:37 PM

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this big gun say weak RM is great!
QUOTE
Weakening ringgit good for trade, says Vincent Tan
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...ys-vincent-tan/

but this other big gun disagree.
QUOTE
Matrade: Weak ringgit won’t result in higher trade surplus
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...-trade-surplus/

weak RM cannot be good overall. it's BS to say it is good.
if it's really good, just devalue to 7.0 or even 8.0, all is good then.
so easily done.
try getting it back to 4.0, u can only get defensive responses like "all external, can't control, not too bad".

of course, the ever wise statement is "too strong no good, too weak also no good, just right is good."

so, the big question now, given:

.. the continued strength of the $.
.. USD/RMB going >7.0 soon.
.. our debt levels and addiction to debt.
.. gomen priority for gdp growth (and hence reluctance to raise int rates), which is primarily driven by consumption and construction that bring no fx.
.. our budget deficit, br1m, subsidies, leakage, wastage, graft.

what is the "right" no. for RM?

5.0 by 2018 sounds about right, no?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 17 2016, 05:48 PM
Drian
post Dec 17 2016, 10:57 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 17 2016, 05:37 PM)
this big gun say weak RM is great!

but this other big gun disagree.

weak RM cannot be good overall. it's BS to say it is good.
if it's really good, just devalue to 7.0 or even 8.0, all is good then.
so easily done.
try getting it back to 4.0, u can only get defensive responses like "all external, can't control, not too bad".

of course, the ever wise statement is "too strong no good, too weak also no good, just right is good."

so, the big question now, given:

.. the continued strength of the $.
.. USD/RMB going >7.0 soon.
.. our debt levels and addiction to debt.
.. gomen priority for gdp growth (and hence reluctance to raise int rates), which is primarily driven by consumption and construction that bring no fx.
.. our budget deficit, br1m, subsidies, leakage, wastage, graft.

what is the "right" no. for RM?

5.0 by 2018 sounds about right, no?
*
If you're product is priced in USD and exported out then its good cause you'll get more RM.
If you're a consumer then it's bad cause it's going to be more expensive for you.

Don't take all these people seriously because what they say is just for their own best interest not yours.
Vincent Tan just wants to make more money that's why he is promoting a weaker ringgit.
Again he probably doesn't care what the other impacts is but only himself.

QUOTE
He said Tan’s statement was accurate to describe his trading position at the moment, especially as the latter would profit more from the weakening ringgit.
“Tan has a number of businesses overseas and the revenues from these operations would bring greater gains should it be brought back and converted to ringgit, while the ringgit is weak,” Dzulkifli said of the Cardiff City football club owner.


This post has been edited by Drian: Dec 17 2016, 11:00 PM
Drian
post Dec 17 2016, 11:05 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 16 2016, 11:15 PM)
Ringgit oversold by 10% to 12%, says Public IB Research
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/r...lic-ib-research

boleh percaya kah this news devil.gif
*
These people have been wrong so so many times. Sometimes I wished someone recorded down what they say and the real outcome for the past 5 years, and do an analysis on how accurate they are with real names.

Something like:-

xxxx name working in KPMG consultancy was wrong in 2/3 of his/her prediction.




This post has been edited by Drian: Dec 17 2016, 11:07 PM
Hansel
post Dec 18 2016, 12:48 AM

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I think the exporters are no more enjoying themselves as they used to after BNM forced them to convert 75% of their proceeds back to the RM !

I believed nobody would want to convert into 'a lot of a currency' that CONTINUES TO WEAKEN !

This post has been edited by Hansel: Dec 18 2016, 12:52 AM
AVFAN
post Dec 18 2016, 01:03 AM

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for everyone's reference...

QUOTE
user posted image

user posted image

user posted image

user posted image

user posted image

user posted image
This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 18 2016, 01:51 AM
AVFAN
post Dec 18 2016, 01:30 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 18 2016, 12:48 AM)
I think the exporters are no more enjoying themselves as they used to  after BNM forced them to convert 75% of their proceeds back to the RM !

I believed nobody would want to convert into 'a lot of a currency' that CONTINUES TO WEAKEN !
*
the bigger question is with this 75% thingy, who will put big money into exports biz?
icemanfx
post Dec 18 2016, 04:18 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 18 2016, 01:30 AM)
the bigger question is with this 75% thingy, who will put big money into exports biz?
*
And why FDI need to set up shops here for export?

spiderman17
post Dec 18 2016, 04:47 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 18 2016, 01:30 AM)
the bigger question is with this 75% thingy, who will put big money into exports biz?
*
I believe businessman made most money from the trade margin. The Forex gain from sitting on usd pile is just bonus. Nobody likes their bonus being taken away, but that doesn't mean they will just quit/walkaway from their money-making trades.

kit2
post Dec 18 2016, 06:06 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 16 2016, 01:59 PM)
*
quoting with quotes again?

you should at least type something to express your own views smile.gif

This post has been edited by kit2: Dec 18 2016, 06:08 AM
AVFAN
post Dec 18 2016, 09:18 AM

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QUOTE(kit2 @ Dec 18 2016, 06:06 AM)
quoting with quotes again?

you should at least type something to express your own views smile.gif
*
if u hv nothing to share, pls don't post at all.
Hansel
post Dec 18 2016, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Dec 18 2016, 04:47 AM)
I believe businessman made most money from the trade margin. The Forex gain from sitting on usd pile is just bonus. Nobody likes their bonus being taken away, but that doesn't mean they will just quit/walkaway from their money-making trades.
*
Hmm,... I tend to disagree somewhat,.. for myself, even though I am making a lot from the margin, but if what I made MUST BE converted into something that will lose its value slowly, I will still hesitate.
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post Dec 18 2016, 10:15 AM

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QUOTE(kit2 @ Dec 18 2016, 06:06 AM)
quoting with quotes again?

you should at least type something to express your own views smile.gif
*
Bro,... for myself, I think it's great that AV can furnish us news. He put in great effort to find and post. I wouldn't ask more of him if he is not ready to comment. The great thing abt this thread is we all scour and post what we find from the net. thumbsup.gif
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post Dec 18 2016, 10:26 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 18 2016, 09:18 AM)
if u hv nothing to share, pls don't post at all.
*
QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 18 2016, 10:15 AM)
Bro,... for myself, I think it's great that AV can furnish us news. He put in great effort to find and post. I wouldn't ask more of him if he is not ready to comment. The great thing abt this thread is we all scour and post what we find from the net.  :thumbsup:
*
wow didn't realize there's an douche bag in every thread. I feel you AV as I always post stuff on the fsm group and there's one guy who never gives anything in the conversation and will pop up for no where and start complaining. keep up the good job AV news articles help a lot when making a decision on what to invest and where to invest
AVFAN
post Dec 18 2016, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 18 2016, 10:15 AM)
Bro,... for myself, I think it's great that AV can furnish us news. He put in great effort to find and post. I wouldn't ask more of him if he is not ready to comment. The great thing abt this thread is we all scour and post what we find from the net.  thumbsup.gif
*

QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 18 2016, 10:26 AM)
wow didn't realize there's an douche bag in every thread. I feel you AV as I always post stuff on the fsm group and there's one guy who never gives anything in the conversation and will pop up for no where and start complaining. keep up the good job AV news articles help a lot when making a decision on what to invest and where to invest
*
well, if one has hung around any thread LYN or any forum for a while, one surely knows - there are all kinds.

one liners, trolls, "feed me's", post for post sake, stalkers, hijackers, derailers, troopers...

it is true not everyone can keep up with a dynamic and complex subject and hence get lost in the middle.

more so when one is lazy and does not want to read or think a bit.

and that causes frustration on one side and exasperation on the other.



however, one can also find value in some others' posts.

it is for this reason i only go to a handful of threads where i know there are good contributors to share with and brains to pick.

AVFAN
post Dec 18 2016, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Dec 18 2016, 04:47 AM)
I believe businessman made most money from the trade margin. The Forex gain from sitting on usd pile is just bonus. Nobody likes their bonus being taken away, but that doesn't mean they will just quit/walkaway from their money-making trades.
*
QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 18 2016, 04:18 AM)
And why FDI need to set up shops here for export?
*
the actual impact of that 75% thingy has yet to be seen.

however, the comments from topglove already give a clue - it will stifle export industries' growth, i.e. new investments for export biz will think very hard about whether to go ahead or not.


what sectors are we talking about when we say "export biz" or anything that earn FX?

that should be largely manufacturing.

this new report says mfg investment approved (not actual) is down by 39%.

not much details about foreign or domestic; the nos. are for jan-sep, before the trump win, before the 75% thingy.

i doubt the 75% thingy is going to help the RM overall over time.

QUOTE
On the manufacturing sector, he said approved investments for the sector dropped 39% for the January-September period from the corresponding period last year.
He said the total investments approved in the manufacturing sector were mainly in petroleum products, including petrochemicals (RM9.4 billion), electronics and electrical products (RM7.3 billion), natural gas (RM3.7 billion) and food manufacturing (RM3.3 billion).

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...ed-since-jan-1/


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 18 2016, 11:45 AM
icemanfx
post Dec 18 2016, 11:49 AM

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Besides u.s fed rate, with China as the largest trading partner, economic downturn e.g property bubble burst in China, RMB breached 7.0 will have impact on Myr forex rate.

Hansel
post Dec 18 2016, 01:01 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 17 2016, 05:22 PM)
u mean to get same AUD, u spend less RM doing RM->AUD than RM->USD->AUD?

if so, that is only normal.

if u mean cheaper the other way round, that will be something interesting... arbitrage opportunity?
*
Bro,... pls help me to confirm,... I discovered an arbitrage opportunity here ! AUD will be weakening these 2 to 3 days, but after it 're-strengthened', pls allocate a few minutes to help me cfm,... tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 18 2016, 01:18 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 18 2016, 11:49 AM)
Besides u.s fed rate, with China as the largest trading partner, economic downturn e.g property bubble burst in China, RMB breached 7.0 will have impact on Myr forex rate.
*
i am starting to wonder if bnm is intervening to keep RM closer to RMB rather than USD.

since there is so much hype about RM144 bil investment to come from china.


QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 18 2016, 01:01 PM)
Bro,... pls help me to confirm,... I discovered an arbitrage opportunity here ! AUD will be weakening these 2 to 3 days, but after it 're-strengthened', pls allocate a few minutes to help me cfm,... tongue.gif
*
so, u mean it is better to do RM->USD->AUD than RM->AUD?

in another thread, i mentioned i was checking if SGD->USD->RM is better than SGD->RM due to the ridiculous RM/SGD spread with the local banks.

i will post what i find tmrw. smile.gif
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post Dec 18 2016, 01:23 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 18 2016, 01:18 PM)
i am starting to wonder if bnm is intervening to keep RM closer to RMB rather than USD.

since there is so much hype about RM144 bil investment to come from china.
so, u mean it is better to do RM->USD->AUD than RM->AUD?

in another thread, i mentioned i was checking if SGD->USD->RM is better than SGD->RM due to the ridiculous RM/SGD spread with the local banks.

i will post what i find tmrw. smile.gif
*
smile.gif

Tq for helping to confirm, bro,.. maybe PM if you wished to.
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post Dec 18 2016, 07:00 PM

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Malaysian Economy In Really Deep Trouble Says The Wall Street Journal. mega_shok.gif

http://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysias-vulnerability-exposed-by-dollars-ascent-1481843998

QUOTE
Foreign investors are fleeing the country’s stock and bond markets 


Malaysia has been one of Asia’s worst-hit economies amid the continued climb of US interest rates and the dollar.
Foreign investors sold $5.3 billion of Malaysian stocks and bonds in November, the largest monthly outflow since September 2011, according to ANZ Bank. That is almost a quarter of the $22.1 billion pulled from emerging markets in the region, excluding China.

The bulk of the selling was in Malaysia’s bond market. The $4.5 billion of bonds sold by foreigners in November, in ringgit terms, marks the biggest monthly debt outflow on record, according to ANZ.
The ringgit was one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies in the aftermath of the US election, and Malaysia’s central bank has been tapping the country’s already low level of reserves to support it. Last month, Bank Negara clamped down on offshore currency speculators, a worrying echo of its maneuvers to stem capital outflows during the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s.

Despite the government’s various attempts to support the currency, the ringgit has lost 6.5 percent of its value against the greenback since the US election, hitting a nearly 19-year low on November 30. On Thursday, the currency weakened 0.9 percent, following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its first rate increase in 2016.
Malaysia’s Achilles’ heel is the high level of foreign ownership of its government bonds. Foreign money is flighty, a factor that can accelerate a liquidity crunch during times of stress. While the latest rash of selling cut the proportion of foreign ownership to 48 percent in November from 52 percent a month earlier, the percentage is still very high for an emerging market.


This post has been edited by wu ming: Dec 18 2016, 07:02 PM
Hansel
post Dec 18 2016, 09:31 PM

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Following all these, the next catalyst would be when President Trump starts work on Friday, January 20th.. Hence, effects will be seen on the following Monday, January 23rd..
AVFAN
post Dec 18 2016, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 18 2016, 09:31 PM)
Following all these, the next catalyst would be when President Trump starts work on Friday, January 20th.. Hence, effects will be seen on the following Monday, January 23rd..
*
before that, bnm meeting on jan 19.

my bet is... do nothing, no change, very safe. biggrin.gif
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post Dec 18 2016, 10:22 PM

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Why I see the Dollar strengthening at least in the Q1 of 2017


View of USD/MYR:

1. Trump's Power


A. Strengthening US position globally.
B. Tighter Securities.
C. Making Strategic Deals (with big companies) - Makes US seem strong well at least for the first yr of his presidency. His suggestions and actions taken may go wrong in the end but his ideas are definitely believed to attract investors.
D. Policies of Bringing Jobs Back to The States - Unemployment rate to further drop. However, this may increase the cost of companies as now they would have to pay higher wages when hiring US citizens rather than outsourcing their labour to countries such as China/India.


2. FED

A. Although the Fed acts independently, Yellen has been facing a serious degree of pressure from Trump as he has constantly argued that the Fed should start increasing rates by 100bps rather small 25bps hikes.



Internationally

A. Investors generally have a positive view towards the US economy and find them being the strongest among all countries although China and India's economy has been generally growing fast.

B. The Dollar being perceived to be the dominated trade currency, hence the demand for USD would be there unless some shit happens in the economy. Moreover, if US starts manufacturing good and services, companies/people abroad that wish to purchase the given goods from the States would eventually need USD which in return increases the demand of the Dollar.


What about the RM ?



A. Political scenarios has been messy - 1MDB (although its an old news, the after effects are still being observed)
B. Political Unrest between the Gov and the Oppositions (Don't think that I have to explain these as you guys should know)
C. Governments debt - How is the Gov managing it ? Is the debt still growing ? Can they still afford to payout BR1M ? When would they be declaring bankruptcy if it happens ? Who's funding the government in undertaking its operations apart from revenues collected from taxes, GST etc.
D. Oil Prices - Would OPEC and other member nations adhere to its agreement to cut supply or would they suddenly increase supply ?



What would I suggest a local investor to do ? Buy more USD well at least for the short-term.

This post has been edited by shankar_dass93: Dec 18 2016, 10:24 PM
TOMEI-R
post Dec 19 2016, 07:45 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 18 2016, 01:01 PM)
Bro,... pls help me to confirm,... I discovered an arbitrage opportunity here ! AUD will be weakening these 2 to 3 days, but after it 're-strengthened', pls allocate a few minutes to help me cfm,... tongue.gif
*
Im interested to know too. But Aussie Dillar is still hanging at 3.325 at the moment. Not really weaking as said. Why would the aussie ar be weaking?

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 19 2016, 09:11 AM
Hansel
post Dec 19 2016, 08:02 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 19 2016, 07:45 AM)
Im interested yo know too.  But Aussie Dillar is still hanging at 3.325 at the moment.  Not really weaking as said.  Why would the aussie ar be weaking?
*
Morn bro,...

May not weaken too much against the RM, but noticeable effects against the SGD and the USD. The Parliamentary Mid-Year Review is today, and S&P is watching too. The review is expected to show negative news, and S&P will see. IF S&P lowers credit rating,... then got chance to buy the Aussie,...... But may not lower !!
TOMEI-R
post Dec 19 2016, 09:13 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 19 2016, 08:02 AM)
Morn bro,...

May not weaken too much against the RM, but noticeable effects against the SGD and the USD. The Parliamentary Mid-Year Review is today, and S&P is watching too. The review is expected to show negative news, and S&P will see. IF S&P lowers credit rating,... then got chance to buy the Aussie,...... But may not lower !!
*
Will monitor and see if Aud drops these few days. Usually during festive and and holiday season, MYR will strengten a bit.
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post Dec 19 2016, 09:17 AM

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Business leaders urge Coalition to boost infrastructure investment to ward off recession

The Coalition government is being urged to prioritise an ­increase in private and public ­investment and improve business and consumer confidence to stop the domestic economy slumping into recession next year.

Australian business leaders have called on the government to be more proactive fiscal policy managers and consider a stimulus package that centres on infrastructure investment to help ­support the country’s future ­productivity growth.

The mid-year economic and fiscal outlook to be delivered today by Scott Morrison is expected to maintain the Coalition’s promise that the federal government budget will return to surplus by 2021.

Finance minister Mathias ­Cormann yesterday said up to $22 billion worth of budget savings approved by the parliament over the past year would help the ­government’s fiscal management, while the current positive commodities outlook would provide a short-term revenue boost.

However, ratings agencies have warned Australia’s triple-A credit rating is under threat ­because of the ongoing structural budget deficit.

Business leaders have urged the government to spend more to ease the pressure for the Reserve Bank to cut the official cash rate from 1.5 per cent — a generational low.

Tony Shepherd, former Business Council of Australia president and former chairman of the National Commission of Audit, said the government’s budget ­surplus target was ambitious in the current economic climate.

The Australian economy ­contracted by 0.5 per cent in the September quarter and another quarter of negative growth would place it in official recession.

“The government needs to be absolutely open about the challenges Australia faces in both the economy and the budget, the two of them are inextricably linked,” Mr Shepherd said. “As the economy slows down as it has done then private investment reduces, company profits are going to go down, income tax won’t increase, neither will the GST revenue.

“Those factors make getting to a surplus and balancing the ­budget incredibly difficult.”

Andrew Liveris, the global business leader appointed by ­Donald Trump to head his administration’s new Manufacturing Council, last week said he supported greater global public sector investment and that “free markets do not equate with no government intervention”.

“Building integrated industrial sector as based on competitive inputs does need sound policy making in partnership with the private sector,” he told the The Australian.

Mr Shepherd, a key adviser to former prime minister Tony ­Abbott, said the Coalition faced a difficult position in negotiating with the Senate but needed to maintain pushing ahead with its budget savings measures.

“On the expenditure side, they have been tied up with by the opposition and some of the cross benchers in terms of genuine long-term reform,” he said. “Some measures have gone through, but others are waiting in the pipeline.

“If you look where the terms of trades are now, we have low or negative growth you would have to say that the picture … looks more negative than it was at the time of the budget in May.”

Charter Hall chief executive David Harrison said it was vital the government focus on infrastructure investment next year to maintain employment and help drive future productivity growth.

The property sector leader said the Reserve Bank of Australia should not be forced into carrying out all of the “heavy lifting” to keep the economy on track and the government must become more active fiscal managers.

“If we get another quarter of negative growth then technically we are going to be in a recession,” Mr Harrison said. “That could force the RBA to move ... when people see their house values not rising then there could be a need for some stimulatory impact from the RBA, but the government also needs to drive fiscal policy.

“The government needs to drive infrastructure investment which creates and provides jobs and keeps the economy active.”

Mr Harrison said he believed Australian businesses should start increasing current debt levels while interest rates were low to fund projects which would be ­beneficial in the future.

“Most corporate balance sheets are in very good shape; they need to use their capacity to borrow to make investments that will generate future activity,” he said.

“Corporate Australia, I would say, has been in a deliberate do-­little mode since the global financial crisis.

“The rest of the world has been spending but there’s no silver ­bullet here. If there was a simple answer everyone would be doing it.”

Credit ratings agencies have said the Coalition could know ­before the end of this week if the country’s sovereign rating was downgraded because of the ­ongoing budget deficit, which could be as high as $37 billion this financial year.

Mr Shepherd said a ratings downgrade could have costly economic implications, especially if interest rates started to rise in 2017.

“I don’t think for the economy, in the short-term, it would have much of an impact,” he said.

“But it will have a real effect on morale for business investment it’s a negative ... if rates start to go up then the cost of losing the rating is going to become very real.”

AVFAN
post Dec 19 2016, 11:03 AM

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$ index down to 102.6x, profit taking.

RM still just under 4.48.

banks should be selling USD at >4.50 now.

money changer...?

TOMEI-R
post Dec 19 2016, 11:06 AM

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USD at 4.475 now at money changers. shakehead.gif MYR took a slight dip against foreign currencies this morning.

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 19 2016, 11:07 AM
AVFAN
post Dec 19 2016, 11:15 AM

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ah, well...

$ index up or down, RM same... biggrin.gif

ok, we will live say 4.5 for now.

i see many prices at the stores already up, can expect more to come.

how to have happy festive holidays?

some more water cut for a week... rolleyes.gif
spiderman17
post Dec 19 2016, 12:02 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 18 2016, 10:12 AM)
Hmm,... I tend to disagree somewhat,.. for myself, even though I am making a lot from the margin, but if what I made MUST BE converted into something that will lose its value slowly, I will still hesitate.
*
i guess that's what allow the market to work...people on opposing side of view complementing each other's need
and may we both prosper from the resulting "trade" thumbup.gif
our view is inherently biased by our own position/action.
as long as we are aware of this bias, all will be fine.

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 18 2016, 11:38 AM)
the actual impact of that 75% thingy has yet to be seen.

however, the comments from topglove already give a clue - it will stifle export industries' growth, i.e. new investments for export biz will think very hard about whether to go ahead or not.
what sectors are we talking about when we say "export biz" or anything that earn FX?

that should be largely manufacturing.

this new report says mfg investment approved (not actual) is down by 39%.

not much details about foreign or domestic; the nos. are for jan-sep, before the trump win, before the 75% thingy.

i doubt the 75% thingy is going to help the RM overall over time.
*
do note that topglove's point of view is based on the rubber industry ownership - all his credible competitors are from malaysia.
what are his usd cost% and what will his approved hedging% be ? i see the their comment as leading to something.
brows.gif

ZZMsia
post Dec 19 2016, 12:22 PM

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...inancial-crisis

From Bloomberg


Ringgit Dips to Weakest Level Since 1998 Asia Financial Crisis

Malaysia’s ringgit touched the lowest level since the Asian financial crisis as investors continue to sell down emerging-market assets and after a crackdown on currency speculators last month exacerbated outflows.

The ringgit declined as much as 0.1 percent to 4.4805 per dollar, a level unseen since January 1998, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg, before paring losses to trade little changed at 4.48 at 9:52 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur.

The ringgit has lost more than 6 percent since the U.S. election, the biggest decline in emerging Asia, as expectations that incoming American president Donald Trump will stoke inflation with his fiscal policies spurred outflows from the region. Sentiment toward Malaysian assets has also been hurt by the central bank’s move in November to clamp down on trading of non-deliverable forwards even as it provided greater onshore hedging flexibility with revised regulations.
“It is a confluence of the relative decline in cash metric, high foreign holding of bonds sold off, investors’ trepidation about FX controls and the underlying political or headline risks,” said Vishnu Varathan, a senior economist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore.

This post has been edited by ZZMsia: Dec 19 2016, 12:23 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 19 2016, 12:33 PM

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QUOTE(ZZMsia @ Dec 19 2016, 12:22 PM)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...inancial-crisis
“It is a confluence of the relative decline in cash metric, high foreign holding of bonds sold off, investors’ trepidation about FX controls and the underlying political or headline risks,” said Vishnu Varathan, a senior economist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore.
*
bolded part says it all.

investors’ trepidation about FX controls and the underlying political or headline risks = high fear, low confidence.

our local banks, analysts and "experts" will only say... "speculators" or "oversold", "will return to 4.0".

the root causes and what needs to be rectified are never mentioned.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 19 2016, 12:39 PM
bbgoat
post Dec 19 2016, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 19 2016, 11:03 AM)
$ index down to 102.6x, profit taking.

RM still just under 4.48.

banks should be selling USD at >4.50 now.

money changer...?
*
I checked CB TT rate, 4.5115. sweat.gif Highest so far for this year. sad.gif

Well, life still goes on. biggrin.gif
Hansel
post Dec 19 2016, 02:24 PM

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Frankly,... if BNM keeps sending more and more of her foreign reserves to defend and still the USD keep hammering,... what happens ??

Exporters must convert 75% back to MYR, that's the first step.

Second step ?

Surely cannot be just continue to defend until NO MORE reserves, right ?
ninjawin
post Dec 19 2016, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 19 2016, 02:24 PM)
Frankly,... if BNM keeps sending more and more of her foreign reserves to defend and still the USD keep hammering,... what happens ??

Exporters must convert 75% back to MYR, that's the first step.

Second step ?

Surely cannot be just continue to defend until NO MORE reserves, right ?
*
Time to raise interest. Seems no other choices
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post Dec 19 2016, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(ninjawin @ Dec 19 2016, 03:33 PM)
Time to raise interest. Seems no other choices
*
Yeah. I remember they lowered interest rates in July because at that time nobody foresaw Trump would actually win and the USD-MYR was around 3.95. They should raise it back to the same rates at least.
AVFAN
post Dec 19 2016, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 19 2016, 02:24 PM)
Surely cannot be just continue to defend until NO MORE reserves, right ?
*
no more? biggrin.gif

that will be like burkina faso and zimbabwe.

i think the intervention will continue for a while.

but the time may come it may have to let go if the RMB shoots >7.0.

china is having big problems with capital outflows.


what next?

raise int rate will reduce gdp growth further, can't do.

cut int rate will push rm down further, can't do.

cut budget spending is surely no-no.

i see only one thing that will be done - raise GST and other taxes to shore up revenues to reduce new borrowings.


latest reads:

QUOTE
Asian currencies on defensive; ringgit matches post-1998 lows
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...post-1998-lows/

Goldman Warns China Outflows Rising in Both Yuan Payments, Forex
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-payments-forex

Don't panic, ringgit will bounce back, says minister
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/366591
TOMEI-R
post Dec 19 2016, 04:22 PM

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Ringgit will not crash.

An analysis of the ringgit pattern during every last quarter of the year exemplifies that even though the currency remains volatile and people become jittery, it is not going to crash, and will hardly be traded beyond 4.50 against the US dollar, an economist said.

I wonder if these 'experts' have vested interests in making such speculations or they are 'instructed' by higher ups to contain panic among the public? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 19 2016, 04:25 PM
cherroy
post Dec 19 2016, 04:30 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 19 2016, 02:24 PM)
Frankly,... if BNM keeps sending more and more of her foreign reserves to defend and still the USD keep hammering,... what happens ??

Exporters must convert 75% back to MYR, that's the first step.

Second step ?

Surely cannot be just continue to defend until NO MORE reserves, right ?
*
There are several of options.

1. Capital control just like what happened 1998.

2. Borrow USD from IMF, just like what happened on other crisis hit countries during 1998.

3. Issue USD denominated bond, instead RM, currently bulk of national borrowing is in RM.
Frankly speaking this is short term solution only, not something recommended.
1998 crisis imploded partly because there were plenty of borrowing in USD/Yen denominated. It was a messy situation when those borrowing currency rose.

Instead of keep on defending RM and intervening the forex market that may exhaust the foreign currency reserves, require exporter to convert is one way bring in USD, and create more demand for RM, hence lesser volatile movement for RM.

4. Raise interest rate, by then domestic bond yield become more attractive, more capital inflow.

5. Any type of measures that can induce higher trade surplus and current account surplus.

6. Adopt more currencies swap between agreed countries, that reduce the demand for USD.

Frankly speaking, there is no urgency for 1, 2, & 3 for time being, as foreign currency reserves still able to cover for short term debt, although not by big margin.
We need to see how the trend and how situation is unfolding. There is simply too much uncertainty factor out there.
Little people expected Trump to win the presidency speaks how today world become so unpredictable.




This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 19 2016, 04:38 PM
icemanfx
post Dec 19 2016, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 19 2016, 04:30 PM)
There are several of options.

1. Capital control just like what happened 1998.

2. Borrow USD from IMF, just like what happened on other crisis hit countries during 1998.

3. Issue USD denominated bond, instead RM, currently bulk of national borrowing is in RM.
Frankly speaking this is short term solution only, not something recommended.
1998 crisis imploded partly because there were plenty of borrowing in USD/Yen denominated. It was a messy situation when those borrowing currency rose.

Instead of keep on defending RM and intervening the forex market that may exhaust the foreign currency reserves, require exporter to convert is one way bring in USD, and create more demand for RM, hence lesser volatile movement for RM.

4. Raise interest rate, by then domestic bond yield become more attractive, more capital inflow.

5. Any type of measures that can induce higher trade surplus and current account surplus.

6. Adopt more currencies swap between agreed countries, that reduce the demand for USD.

Frankly speaking, there is no urgency for 1, 2, & 3 for time being, as foreign currency reserves still able to cover for short term debt, although not by big margin.
We need to see how the trend and how situation is unfolding. There is simply too much uncertainty factor out there.
Little people expected Trump to win the presidency speaks how today world become so unpredictable.
*
Low interest rate since 2011 has resulted in mis-allocations of credit to unproductive sectors e.g. residential property bubble. To realign credit to productive sectors, interest rate should rise by 200 basis points over the next 2 years.

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post Dec 19 2016, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 19 2016, 04:22 PM)
Ringgit will not crash.

An analysis of the ringgit pattern during every last quarter of the year exemplifies that even though the currency remains volatile and people become jittery, it is not going to crash, and will hardly be traded beyond 4.50 against the US dollar, an economist said.

I wonder if these 'experts' have vested interests in making such speculations or they are 'instructed' by higher ups to contain panic among the public? hmm.gif
*
these "experts" are just selling snake oil with the idea, "what comes down will go up" - automatically, by itself, no need to do anything.

but we know certain things like gravity... "what comes down stays down" or what goes down can go down further" - until new powerful forces come into play.

at this time, there is only one new force - BNM intervention with reserves.
AVFAN
post Dec 19 2016, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 19 2016, 04:30 PM)
2. Borrow USD from IMF, just like what happened on other crisis hit countries during 1998.
*
dr m did not do that in 1998 due to the conditions imposed by IMF.
the same conditions will apply now - and will be rejected.
becos the conditions will be about nep, civil service, mega projects.

going back to 1998, certain things happened to help the turnaround besides the peg. will current gomen do something like that or stick to "it will rebound (by itself)"?

QUOTE
By Autumn Malaysia’s government seems to have come around to the view that it needed to put its own house in order, rather than blame others for its problems. In early September the government deferred spending on several high profile infra-structure projects[/B] including its prestigious Bakun dam project. This was followed in December 1997 by the release of plans to cut state spending by 18%. The government also stated that it [B]will not bail out any corporations that become insolvent as a result of excess borrowing. Then in January 1998, IMF managing director Michel Camdessus, stated that Malaysia was correct in asserting that it did not need an IMF rescue package to get it through the regional financial crisis. "Malaysia is not facing a crisis in the same way as some of the other countries in the region, " he said, noting the authorities have taken measures to deal with the difficulties, particularly on the fiscal side. On the other hand, he did state that the government needed to raise interest rates to slow credit growth, moderate inflationary pressures and support the weakening currency.
http://www.wright.edu/~tdung/asiancrisis-hill.htm
This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 19 2016, 05:14 PM
cherroy
post Dec 19 2016, 05:19 PM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Dec 19 2016, 05:11 PM)
just came back from hsbc chatting with staffs there. bnm now control very tight. all dual currency investment clients must declare loan free, otherwise cannot DCI anymore.
*
Still DCI is available.


TOMEI-R
post Dec 19 2016, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 19 2016, 05:08 PM)
dr m did not do that in 1998 due to the conditions imposed by IMF.
the same conditions will apply now - and will be rejected.
becos the conditions will be about nep, civil service, mega projects.

going back to 1998, certain things happened to help the turnaround besides the peg. will current gomen do something like that or stick to "it will rebound (by itself)"?
*
Borrowing from IMF would be like borrowing from a Loan Shark, a Global Loan Shark. It would allow them to exert enormous leverage over the economies as well of policies of running the country.

Heard Dr M had a Jew as an economic advisor by his side then. Not sure how true it was.
AVFAN
post Dec 19 2016, 05:37 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 19 2016, 05:23 PM)
Borrowing from IMF would be like borrowing from a Loan Shark, a Global Loan Shark. It would allow them to exert enormous leverage over the economies as well of policies of running the country.

Heard Dr M had a Jew as an economic advisor by his side then. Not sure how true it was.
*
the indisciplined ones will become more miserable.

some made it good with IMF - thailand got out of the mess with IMF borrowings quite quickly.

so did ireland more recently.



like any borrowing, it is only good if used properly for financially sound purpose(s).

hence the IMF conditions.

for greece or any country.

no handicaps, no privileges, no special rights.




cherroy
post Dec 19 2016, 05:38 PM

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Just a reminder,
Please focus on financial issue aspect, and refrain from any potential further political talk, as this is a financial section, so that the topic is not deviated.

Thank you
cherroy
post Dec 19 2016, 05:44 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 19 2016, 05:23 PM)
Borrowing from IMF would be like borrowing from a Loan Shark, a Global Loan Shark. It would allow them to exert enormous leverage over the economies as well of policies of running the country.

Heard Dr M had a Jew as an economic advisor by his side then. Not sure how true it was.
*
The biggest mistake during that time, was the so called plenty of international expert advice by using high interest rate to counter the on going crisis.

All crisis hit countries be it IMF aided or non recovered after the interest rate was lowered down to be more optimum level, instead in double digit rate.


AVFAN
post Dec 19 2016, 06:22 PM

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we watch for this...

QUOTE
Petronas to cut production in 2017
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/366616


what and how decreased output and price change will impact revenues, dividends, debt... and budget 2017... and the RM.
nexona88
post Dec 19 2016, 06:29 PM

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MOF: Don't panic, ringgit will bounce back
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016...ll-bounce-back/

meanwhile another report..

Emerging currencies, including ringgit, to remain volatile next year, World Bank official says
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/ar...h.KGMKQlOl.dpuf

This post has been edited by nexona88: Dec 19 2016, 06:59 PM
ninjawin
post Dec 19 2016, 09:06 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 19 2016, 06:29 PM)
MOF: Don't panic, ringgit will bounce back
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016...ll-bounce-back/

meanwhile another report..

Emerging currencies, including ringgit, to remain volatile next year, World Bank official says
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/ar...h.KGMKQlOl.dpuf
*
Don't see how ringgit will not drop further since FED is planning to raise interest rates aggressively next year. Let's see if our governator dares to make surprise brows.gif raise cut again..
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post Dec 19 2016, 09:53 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 7 2016, 08:07 PM)
Ringgit seen stabilising in 1Q2017 - Miti
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/r...ing-1q2017-miti
*
What are the steps taken by the government to strengten the Riggit?
nexona88
post Dec 19 2016, 10:15 PM

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QUOTE(888Ninja @ Dec 19 2016, 09:53 PM)
What are the steps taken by the government to strengten the Riggit?
*
No step taken for now..
More like interfering to make sure myr don't get weaker & move toward 5.00 devil.gif
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post Dec 19 2016, 10:38 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 7 2016, 09:05 PM)
Benefit is not the right word.

How to benefit when more rm is needed to buy the same thing?

It is about protection of wealth, not benefit.

Of course, no protection or hedging, u lose.
*
I agree, sir. Though, in your opinion, what form of hedging can the common public have? and what strategy?
AVFAN
post Dec 19 2016, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(Mystic888 @ Dec 19 2016, 10:38 PM)
I agree, sir. Though, in your opinion, what form of hedging can the common public have? and what strategy?
*
i'm afraid there is no good answer to yr question.

common public = ?

this topic started 2 years ago:
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/4140626

if u read enough, u will find diff people did diff things.

if new, do check the various threads in this section - fd, fsm, gold, reits, unit trusts, dci, foreign equities.




Avangelice
post Dec 19 2016, 11:06 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 19 2016, 11:00 PM)
i'm afraid there is no good answer to yr question.

common public = ?

this topic started 2 years ago:
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/4140626

if u read enough, u will find diff people did diff things.

if new, do check the various threads in this section - fd, fsm, gold, reits, unit trusts, dci, foreign equities.
*
gold really bleeding atm and our rate is way to low for fd returns. I think they should start pushing up the rates soon. them as in BNM
Ramjade
post Dec 20 2016, 08:41 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 19 2016, 11:06 PM)
gold really bleeding atm and our rate is way to low for fd returns. I think they should start pushing up the rates soon. them as in BNM
*
Cannot hike rate also or lots of people will default. Some people borrow personal loan to go for monthly spa/shopping spree/yearly holiday.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 20 2016, 08:59 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 19 2016, 05:44 PM)
The biggest mistake during that time, was the so called plenty of international expert advice by using high interest rate to counter the on going crisis.

All crisis hit countries be it IMF aided or non recovered after the interest rate was lowered down to be more optimum level, instead in double digit rate.
*
Those who experienced 1997 would know better. 10% interest rates for car loans. sweat.gif

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 19 2016, 06:22 PM)
we watch for this...
what and how decreased output and price change will impact revenues, dividends, debt... and budget 2017... and the RM.
*
Yes, when petrol prices soar, so will price of goods and inflation will rise. So will RM appreciatiate just because global petrol prices go up?
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post Dec 20 2016, 09:05 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 19 2016, 11:06 PM)
gold really bleeding atm and our rate is way to low for fd returns. I think they should start pushing up the rates soon. them as in BNM
*
I agree with that. Thats the only few positive ways to prevent so much outflow of the RM. However, I agree that local consumption will suffer too. Markets are already slow now. sweat.gif
Avangelice
post Dec 20 2016, 09:16 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 20 2016, 09:05 AM)
I agree with that. Thats the only few positive ways to prevent so much outflow of the RM. However, I agree that local consumption will suffer too. Markets are already slow now. sweat.gif
*
ironically the ones who are saving for the hard days to come and investing the said monies are the ones stressing out over the economy. those buying the latest iPhones and filling the shopping mall's seem to be happier.

oblivious or just plain ignorant?
AVFAN
post Dec 20 2016, 09:26 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 19 2016, 11:06 PM)
gold really bleeding atm and our rate is way to low for fd returns. I think they should start pushing up the rates soon. them as in BNM
*
gold only dropped just recently due to trump-$ rally.
if one bought gold 2 years ago or so just when the rm started to slide, there is still good gain in rm today... >20% over 2 years, i think.

fd... this one is just near zero risk, good for "boring times", not useful when the currency dives. biggrin.gif

bnm was poised to CUT rates to boost gdp growth when the trump win derailed it.
if they hike rates now, that will be a further slash on gdp growth, so i doubt it.
in the last decade or more, bnm/gomen has been pushing gdp growth primarily, a lot with debt/consumption.
every bnm report comes with something like, "growth is robust due to strong consumer consumption" - as debt levels grow.

there appears to be no major concern for the rm yet; we are still hearing the big fellas saying,"not too bad, don't panic, will bounce back".
so, i think current situation will continue - bnm intervention, letting it slide if need be.

QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 20 2016, 08:59 AM)
Yes, when petrol prices soar, so will price of goods and inflation will rise. So will RM appreciatiate just because global petrol prices go up?
*
given current variables, the impact of oil on the rm is very much diminished as a marginal net crude oil exporter.

on the contrary, higher petrol prices will fuel inflation even faster, adding more pressure to the rm.

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post Dec 20 2016, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 20 2016, 09:26 AM)
gold only dropped just recently due to trump-$ rally.
if one bought gold 2 years ago or so just when the rm started to slide, there is still good gain in rm today... >20% over 2 years, i think.

fd... this one is just near zero risk, good for "boring times", not useful when the currency dives. biggrin.gif

bnm was poised to CUT rates to boost gdp growth when the trump win derailed it.
if they hike rates now, that will be a further slash on gdp growth, so i doubt it.
in the last decade or more, bnm/gomen has been pushing gdp growth primarily, a lot with debt/consumption.
every bnm report comes with something like, "growth is robust due to strong consumer consumption" - as debt levels grow.

there appears to be no major concern for the rm yet; we are still hearing the big fellas saying,"not too bad, don't panic, will bounce back".
so, i think current situation will continue - bnm intervention, letting it slide if need be.
given current variables, the impact of oil on the rm is very much diminished as a marginal net crude oil exporter.

on the contrary, higher petrol prices will fuel inflation even faster, adding more pressure to the rm.
*
end of 2016 is really a shit time for malaysia.

expected Hilary to win but trump came.
Capital outflow from foreign investors.
1MDB
OPEC cuts
Oil price increase
Pseudo capital control by BNM
dropping the rate at the wrong time.

mistakes upon mistakes.
AVFAN
post Dec 20 2016, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 20 2016, 09:30 AM)
end of 2016 is really a shit time for malaysia.

expected Hilary to win but trump came.
Capital outflow from foreign investors.
1MDB
OPEC cuts
Oil price increase
Pseudo capital control by BNM
dropping the rate at the wrong time.

mistakes upon mistakes.
*
good list of events.

and that is the thing - not just individual but gomens as well - can get caught up with twist of events.

more so for those who are already in weak condition. more so for those who do not recognize the underlying root problem(s).

it illustrates the point that one must not assume hunky dory environment to continue, but be prepared in some ways.

here, we knew about 1mdb; we knew >40% debt held by foreigners; we knew oil price went ultra low, can shoot up anytime.

what was unexpected was the trump win-trump $ rally.
icemanfx
post Dec 20 2016, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 20 2016, 09:26 AM)
gold only dropped just recently due to trump-$ rally.
if one bought gold 2 years ago or so just when the rm started to slide, there is still good gain in rm today... >20% over 2 years, i think.

fd... this one is just near zero risk, good for "boring times", not useful when the currency dives. biggrin.gif

bnm was poised to CUT rates to boost gdp growth when the trump win derailed it.
if they hike rates now, that will be a further slash on gdp growth, so i doubt it.
in the last decade or more, bnm/gomen has been pushing gdp growth primarily, a lot with debt/consumption.
every bnm report comes with something like, "growth is robust due to strong consumer consumption" - as debt levels grow.

there appears to be no major concern for the rm yet; we are still hearing the big fellas saying,"not too bad, don't panic, will bounce back".
so, i think current situation will continue - bnm intervention, letting it slide if need be.
given current variables, the impact of oil on the rm is very much diminished as a marginal net crude oil exporter.

on the contrary, higher petrol prices will fuel inflation even faster, adding more pressure to the rm.
*
Gomen debt is limited to 55% of gdp. In order for mof to keep spending inline with inflation, gdp is growth officially every year.

With elevated household debt, big portion is in unproductive investment e.g property flipping, cars, credit cards and many consumers are at or exceed dsl, any rate cut is unlikely to spur gdp growth or consumer spending as evidenced from last rate cut.

If petronas adhere to production cut, unless oil price increase higher than volume cut, revenue/dividend will be reduced, will reduce usd conversion to myr.

Beside fed rate increment, bnm need to brace for possible/likely rattling from china.

The least painful solution to gomen/peasants is to allow inflation to increase until after next ge.

AVFAN
post Dec 20 2016, 10:31 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 20 2016, 10:22 AM)
Gomen debt is limited to 55% of gdp. In order for mof to keep spending inline with inflation, gdp is growth officially every year.
*
good point.

still, it is just a self imposed ceiling.

can easily incr, no parliament needed.

can also move some of the debt out of the ceiling.

so, more debt to grow gdp it is! biggrin.gif
TOMEI-R
post Dec 20 2016, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 20 2016, 09:16 AM)
ironically the ones who are saving for the hard days to come and investing the said monies are the ones stressing out over the economy. those buying the latest iPhones and filling the shopping mall's seem to be happier.

oblivious or just plain ignorant?
*
I beg to differ on that. Im the type of guy who saves for the hard times to come but still buying the latest Iphones each year. I wonder where I stand? rolleyes.gif


What I want to say is that people should always spend within their means. Overspending will stimulate the economy in the short run as every business is doing well but how long can it last? People here are already over riddled with debt, all kinds of debt, u name it and they are still those who want to borrow. Heck even the government wants to keep borrowing. Increasing interest rates will be cruel but I do think that is what the current government can do to prepare for rainy days ahead (rainy days are already here by the way). The country desperately needs inflow of funds now more than ever rather the other way round.

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 20 2016, 10:33 AM
icemanfx
post Dec 20 2016, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 20 2016, 10:31 AM)
good point.

still, it is just a self imposed ceiling.

can easily incr, no parliament needed.

can also move some of the debt out of the ceiling.

so, more debt to grow gdp it is! biggrin.gif
*
Don't forget load of debts (include gomen guarantee) is already off budget e.g 1mdb, hsr, etc.

icemanfx
post Dec 20 2016, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 20 2016, 10:32 AM)
I beg to differ on that. Im the type of guy who saves for the hard times to come but still buying the latest Iphones each year. I wonder where I stand? rolleyes.gif
What I want to say is that people should always spend within their means. Overspending will stimulate the economy in the short run as every business is doing well but how long can it last? People here are already over riddled with debt, all kinds of debt, u name it and they are still those who want to borrow. Heck even the government wants to keep borrowing. Increasing interest rates will be cruel but I do think that is what the current government can do to prepare for rainy days ahead (rainy days are already here by the way). The country desperately needs inflow of funds now more than ever rather the other way round.
*
With more dibs (flipping) properties vp in next 2 years, unless there is substantial income rise, expect disposable income e.g. consumers spending to reduce.

gomen revenue increment is a priority, expect tax increment in the new year e.g. gst, tax audit, etc and businesses cash flow to slow.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 20 2016, 10:47 AM
TOMEI-R
post Dec 20 2016, 10:48 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 20 2016, 10:40 AM)
With more dibs properties vp in next 2 years, unless there is substantial income rise, expect disposable income e.g. consumers spending to reduce.
*
Disposable income are already at all times low now bro. Im a frontliner in sales and I can tell you its already here. Coupled with the weak RM, spending is already reduced to a very low level. Try asking any business owners if they are experiencing good sales at this time and see.
Substancial income rise? I really dont see where that will come from. rolleyes.gif

What puzzles me is that, though with weak RM, you still see AirAsia zero fare tickets snapped up like mad and people travelling overseas for holidays now and then? rclxub.gif
icemanfx
post Dec 20 2016, 10:58 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 20 2016, 10:48 AM)
Disposable income are already at all times low now bro. Im a frontliner in sales and I can tell you its already here. Coupled with the weak RM, spending is already reduced to a very low level. Try asking any business owners if they are experiencing good sales at this time and see.
Substancial income rise? I really dont see where that will come from.  rolleyes.gif

What puzzles me is that, though with weak RM, you still see AirAsia zero fare tickets snapped up like mad and people travelling overseas for holidays now and then?  rclxub.gif
*
During economic recession, not everyone will be impacted equally; some more some less. Retails sales is unlikely to drop by over 50% mean there are still majority of people (e.g gomen servants, students) are still spending.

There are always group of people need to keep up with jones, spending on credit or perceived future income/profit.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 20 2016, 12:04 PM
prophetjul
post Dec 20 2016, 12:21 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 19 2016, 11:06 PM)
gold really bleeding atm and our rate is way to low for fd returns. I think they should start pushing up the rates soon. them as in BNM
*
Gold dropped in USD terms.

If you had your RInggit in gold, you would be a happy chappie
Avangelice
post Dec 20 2016, 12:25 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 20 2016, 12:21 PM)
Gold dropped in USD terms.

If you had your RInggit in gold, you would be a happy chappie
*
so you are saying it's better to start buying gold in myr terms now?
Ramjade
post Dec 20 2016, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 20 2016, 12:25 PM)
so you are saying it's better to start buying gold in myr terms now?
*
Gold price is quite low. Buying gold from banks not worth due to the spread. Unless you got big cash then UOB is the best.
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post Dec 20 2016, 12:31 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 20 2016, 12:25 PM)
so you are saying it's better to start buying gold in myr terms now?
*
No....did not say that.

Just saying that although gold is correcting in USD, other gold currencies are "hedged"
Avangelice
post Dec 20 2016, 12:41 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 20 2016, 12:28 PM)
Gold price is quite low. Buying gold from banks not worth due to the spread. Unless you got big cash then UOB is the best.
*
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 20 2016, 12:31 PM)
No....did not say that.

Just saying that although gold is correcting in USD, other gold currencies are "hedged"
*
oh well. never thought about gold investments anyhow. too many negativity circulating around gold investments esp with MLM and Ponzi schemes. I'll just find another avenue
nexona88
post Dec 20 2016, 06:11 PM

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MIDF: Local currency will stabilized to 4.35 towards year end laugh.gif
https://www.pressreader.com/malaysia/new-st...282398399065021

Shanglin
post Dec 20 2016, 10:16 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 20 2016, 12:41 PM)
oh well. never thought about gold investments anyhow. too many negativity circulating around gold investments esp with MLM and Ponzi schemes. I'll just find another avenue
*
.

This post has been edited by Shanglin: Dec 20 2016, 10:17 PM
Shanglin
post Dec 20 2016, 10:19 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 20 2016, 06:11 PM)
MIDF: Local currency will stabilized to 4.35 towards year end laugh.gif
https://www.pressreader.com/malaysia/new-st...282398399065021
*
Very stupid idiot proudly produced from Malaysia 👍
OPT
post Dec 20 2016, 11:04 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 20 2016, 06:11 PM)
MIDF: Local currency will stabilized to 4.35 towards year end laugh.gif
https://www.pressreader.com/malaysia/new-st...282398399065021
*
100% langsung totally worng prediction IMHO rclxs0.gif
nexona88
post Dec 20 2016, 11:12 PM

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QUOTE(Shanglin @ Dec 20 2016, 10:19 PM)
Very stupid idiot proudly produced from Malaysia 👍
*
laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

QUOTE(OPT @ Dec 20 2016, 11:04 PM)
100% langsung totally worng prediction IMHO  rclxs0.gif
*
seriously the prediction is totally off target bruce.gif bye.gif


AVFAN
post Dec 21 2016, 10:29 AM

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even SGD is under pressure.

QUOTE
Analysts expected that the Singapore dollar could fall even further, but it didn't appear likely to test its Asian financial crisis lows, like the currency of its Northern neighbour, Malaysia. The ringgit has fallen to its lowest level since 1998 as dollar bullishness and domestic economic weaknesses weighed.

But the dollar/Sing pair still has quite a way to go before it hits its highs of even the global financial crisis, when it climbed as high as around 1.5562 in late 2009; it touched levels above 1.85 in 2001, in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in New York.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/20/singapore-d...even-years.html



meanwhile, RM sticks to just <4.48.

will be interesting to see if this "peg" will hold.
icemanfx
post Dec 21 2016, 02:32 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 21 2016, 10:29 AM)
even SGD is under pressure.
meanwhile, RM sticks to just <4.48.

will be interesting to see if this "peg" will hold.
*
Most funds managers are on holiday, don't expect any drastic movement until after the new year.

Hansel
post Dec 21 2016, 03:20 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 21 2016, 02:32 PM)
Most funds managers are on holiday, don't expect any drastic movement until after the new year.
*
In that case, we better buy up all the USDs that we can before the fund mgrs come back after their Christmas and New Year holidays and start selling down the RM again. Hopefully, during this period the RM can take the opportunity to strengthen a bit ??
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post Dec 21 2016, 05:34 PM

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In CB seeing RM (relationship manager haha) on foreign investment. RM said recently MYR other than USD, has strengthened against other currencies.

Asked about TT USD. Was told if sending to family members, the procedure is the same. But if send to third parties (other than family members), then more questions/form to fill up. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 21 2016, 05:37 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 21 2016, 07:27 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 21 2016, 03:20 PM)
In that case, we better buy up all the USDs that we can before the fund mgrs come back after their Christmas and New Year holidays and start selling down the RM again. Hopefully, during this period the RM can take the opportunity to strengthen a bit ??
*
Just "pegged" at 4.479x.

The way euro, yen and sgd gyrating with usd, dont u find whats happening obvious? biggrin.gif

Ya, think not a bad time to get more usd at this time.

QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 21 2016, 05:34 PM)
In CB seeing RM (relationship manager haha) on foreign investment. RM said recently MYR other than USD, has strengthened against other currencies.
*
Did the RM explain why the strengthening in tandem with usd? tongue.gif
bbgoat
post Dec 21 2016, 07:37 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 21 2016, 07:27 PM)
Did the RM explain why the strengthening in tandem with usd? tongue.gif
*
Nope ! laugh.gif

I guess you guys has given enough expert opinion on this. Did not ask any further. She was trying to sell me USD foreign retail bonds. laugh.gif
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post Dec 21 2016, 08:28 PM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 21 2016, 07:37 PM)
Nope !  laugh.gif

I guess you guys has given enough expert opinion on this. Did not ask any further. She was trying to sell me USD foreign retail bonds.  laugh.gif
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They are clueless leh...
Know how to push / sell their products only doh.gif
Showtime747
post Dec 21 2016, 08:52 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 21 2016, 08:28 PM)
They are clueless leh...
Know how to push / sell their products only doh.gif
*
They have been very aggressive lately. Maybe because their business is affected as the customers shift their money overseas. Leaving very little behind in malaysia for them to manage biggrin.gif
nexona88
post Dec 21 2016, 10:01 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 21 2016, 08:52 PM)
They have been very aggressive lately. Maybe because their business is affected as the customers shift their money overseas. Leaving very little behind in malaysia for them to manage  biggrin.gif
*
Well from this thread already can see few of them..
Actual numbers out there would be way bigger..
Banks are really desperate blush.gif
TOMEI-R
post Dec 21 2016, 11:52 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 21 2016, 03:20 PM)
In that case, we better buy up all the USDs that we can before the fund mgrs come back after their Christmas and New Year holidays and start selling down the RM again. Hopefully, during this period the RM can take the opportunity to strengthen a bit ??
*
I still think its too late to stock up on USD now.. its 4.48 now. sweat.gif

QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 21 2016, 08:52 PM)
They have been very aggressive lately. Maybe because their business is affected as the customers shift their money overseas. Leaving very little behind in malaysia for them to manage  biggrin.gif
*
Of course. If given a choice, who would want to leave their money in RM now. But then again, I would say many are saving their money for rainy days ahead or are so heavily in debt there is not enough to let them roll.
sandkoh
post Dec 22 2016, 08:42 AM

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by the way, mana ts now? no hear from him for like 9 days. hmm.gif
Century1
post Dec 22 2016, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 22 2016, 01:52 AM)
I still think its too late to stock up on USD now.. its 4.48 now. sweat.gif
Of course. If given a choice, who would want to leave their money in RM now. But then again, I would say many are saving their money for rainy days ahead or are so heavily in debt there is not enough to let them roll.
*
It's not too late.

The key question is Expectation.

As we all expect ringgit will fall further, it's better to stock up any strong foreign currencies.

Fundamentals

Depleting Bank Negara reserves

foreigners selling off Malaysian equities and government bonds (foreigners own 40% of Malaysian bonds)

Negative impact on NDF controls - fuel further negative impacts

higher inflation

low economic growth

low oil price

1MDB

Ok, I'll stop being an Economist.

I'll just ask a simple question?

Would you like to hold USD100, SGD100, EUD100, AUD100 or RM100 in the future?

Forget about travelling overseas - 1 ringgit buys 22 cents USD


cherroy
post Dec 22 2016, 10:23 AM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 21 2016, 07:37 PM)
Nope !  laugh.gif

I guess you guys has given enough expert opinion on this. Did not ask any further. She was trying to sell me USD foreign retail bonds.  laugh.gif
*
I don't think one needs to become an "expert" to know USD is super strong now... laugh.gif


bbgoat
post Dec 22 2016, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 22 2016, 10:23 AM)
I don't think one needs to become an "expert" to know USD is super strong now...  laugh.gif
*
biggrin.gif

Looks like BNM still trying to control RM vs USD. I am hoping that the rate remains around this level until early Jan. If 4.5 breaks .......... doh.gif
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post Dec 22 2016, 10:53 AM

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anyone got the notification from maybank that they have now western union ability through the website?
Showtime747
post Dec 22 2016, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 21 2016, 11:52 PM)

Of course. If given a choice, who would want to leave their money in RM now. But then again, I would say many are saving their money for rainy days ahead or are so heavily in debt there is not enough to let them roll.
*
Very true ! That's why those who posted in this thread and FD/ASx threads are the fortunate ones. Their worries are how to preserve/grow their wealth. While many are still struggling to service their house/car/CC loans. RM depreciation is not their immediate worries and out of their control
devilkid84
post Dec 22 2016, 11:39 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 22 2016, 10:53 AM)
anyone got the notification from maybank that they have now western union ability through the website?
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i got maybank app pop up notification. anyway i wont use pun laugh.gif
TOMEI-R
post Dec 22 2016, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(Century1 @ Dec 22 2016, 09:43 AM)
It's not too late.

The key question is Expectation.

As we all expect ringgit will fall further, it's better to stock up any strong foreign currencies.

Fundamentals

Depleting Bank Negara reserves

foreigners selling off Malaysian equities and government bonds (foreigners own 40% of Malaysian bonds)

Negative impact on NDF controls - fuel further negative impacts

higher inflation

low economic growth

low oil price

1MDB

Ok, I'll stop being an Economist.

I'll just ask a simple question?

Would you like to hold USD100, SGD100, EUD100, AUD100 or RM100 in the future?

Forget about travelling overseas - 1 ringgit buys 22 cents USD
*
True to that. But we cant be converting all our money into foreign currencies. There is always a gut feeling / worry that the rm will appreciate a lot after we changed all into foreign currencies. So we have to keep in balance what we plan to do with our cash.

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 22 2016, 02:52 PM
Ramjade
post Dec 22 2016, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 22 2016, 01:35 PM)
True to that. But we cant be converting all our money into foreign currencies. There is always a gut feeling / worry that the will appreciate a lot after we changed all into foreign currencies. So we have to keep in balance what we plan to do with our cash.
*
If it say RM suddenly appreciate, I will convert more.
AVFAN
post Dec 22 2016, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 22 2016, 01:35 PM)
True to that. But we cant be converting all our money into foreign currencies. There is always a gut feeling / worry that the will appreciate a lot after we changed all into foreign currencies. So we have to keep in balance what we plan to do with our cash.
*
whether stocks or currencies or a country's econmy, they don't strengthen by themselves.

(but they will decay if u do nothing and continue to bleed it systematically.)

so, we look for leading indicators - bursa (local and foreign funds), mgs yields; local industries/banks-developers- retailers well being.



not sure if u r there - in the early 90's, man... u see money everywhere - local, foreign.

everything was booming incl RM at 2.50.

simply pick a counter, it rises 20% in a week.

plenty of smiles, all were happy, some thought they became gods of money.

until 1998.


gifology
post Dec 22 2016, 02:34 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 21 2016, 08:30 PM)
whether stocks or currencies or a country's econmy, they don't strengthen by themselves.

(but they will decay if u do nothing and continue to bleed it systematically.)

so, we look for leading indicators - bursa (local and foreign funds), mgs yields; local industries/banks-developers- retailers well being.
not sure if u r there - in the early 90's, man... u see money everywhere - local, foreign.

everything was booming incl RM at 2.50.

simply pick a counter, it rises 20% in a week.

plenty of smiles, all were happy, some thought they became gods of money.

until 1998.
*
Well said. I remember those times. thumbsup.gif

I'm positive about the high speed rail and possibly oil and gas picking up. Other than that, not much else.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 22 2016, 03:18 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2016, 02:30 PM)
whether stocks or currencies or a country's econmy, they don't strengthen by themselves.

(but they will decay if u do nothing and continue to bleed it systematically.)

so, we look for leading indicators - bursa (local and foreign funds), mgs yields; local industries/banks-developers- retailers well being.
not sure if u r there - in the early 90's, man... u see money everywhere - local, foreign.

everything was booming incl RM at 2.50.

simply pick a counter, it rises 20% in a week.

plenty of smiles, all were happy, some thought they became gods of money.

until 1998.
*
Ya man... I remember those times. I was there as well, but as a student. So didnt feel the pinch that bad. My parents were wage earners. Save up their monies and we didnt get the "luxuries" associated with the pre 97 fiasco. They managed to buy a house (which was a good buy) after 97 with some hard saved money and that was it. I still remember my friend who had a brand new 318I in his garage before he got his license. But all went down during 1997 where his family had to sell off most of their cars. Those were the days.
I do agree that our monies will decay if we do nothing and continue to let it bleed. But apparently there is nothing much we can do rather than monitor here and try and trying moving our money around hoping for the best. Most important is, we are not heavily in debt because if we were, we would be worrying about how to pay back those debt before thinking of how to invest our money.
wonghs
post Dec 22 2016, 03:34 PM

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http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/b...d-us964b-dec-15

Reserves unchanged?
TOMEI-R
post Dec 22 2016, 04:04 PM

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Aussie dollar lowered down a bit at 3.278 now.
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post Dec 22 2016, 04:57 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 22 2016, 01:35 PM)
True to that. But we cant be converting all our money into foreign currencies. There is always a gut feeling / worry that the rm will appreciate a lot after we changed all into foreign currencies. So we have to keep in balance what we plan to do with our cash.
*
The way I look at it is I am earning the RM in my everyday operational activities. Hence, the RM comes in 'continuously'. When I convert out, I am actually diversifying my currency holdings.

Even if the RM strengthens later, I will continue to get the RM into my hands from my everyday activities.
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post Dec 22 2016, 04:59 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 22 2016, 04:04 PM)
Aussie dollar lowered down a bit at 3.278 now.
*
Yes,....... thumbsup.gif

If we want to have more Aussies in hand, my strategy is :-

1) I convert direct from my SGD.
2) I convert into USD first from my RM.
AVFAN
post Dec 22 2016, 07:39 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 22 2016, 04:04 PM)
Aussie dollar lowered down a bit at 3.278 now.
*
i think AUD is softening due to softening of commodity prices.

for AUD, i will rather watch RMB rather than USD as china buys a lot of aussie commodities like iron ore.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 22 2016, 07:40 PM
Hansel
post Dec 22 2016, 08:02 PM

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BUT : LOOK AT THE ALL ORDINARIES AND THE S&P/ASX 200 !! THEY HAVE BEEN RISING AND RISING IN THE LAST 10 DAYS WHEN MANY OTHER INDICES ARE FALLING.

Why is this ??
cherroy
post Dec 22 2016, 09:57 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 22 2016, 08:02 PM)
BUT : LOOK AT THE ALL ORDINARIES AND THE S&P/ASX 200 !! THEY HAVE BEEN RISING AND RISING IN THE LAST 10 DAYS WHEN MANY OTHER INDICES ARE FALLING.

Why is this ??
*
Since after the poor GDP number released by Aus, market bet RBA to lower the interest rate, that's why we saw Aud went down while stock market is cheering when rate is going down since then.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 22 2016, 11:03 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 22 2016, 04:59 PM)
Yes,....... thumbsup.gif

If we want to have more Aussies in hand, my strategy is :-

1) I convert direct from my SGD.
2) I convert into USD first from my RM.
*
Bro.. mind explaining why we should convert to SGD 1st and then to AUD. Wont we be losing in exchange rates difference by the money changers?

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2016, 07:39 PM)
i think AUD is softening due to softening of commodity prices.

for AUD, i will rather watch RMB rather than USD as china buys a lot of aussie commodities like iron ore.
*
We should be expecting AUD to dip a bit lower and for those interested should make their move then.

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 22 2016, 11:05 PM
Century1
post Dec 23 2016, 08:13 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 23 2016, 01:03 AM)
Bro.. mind explaining why we should convert to SGD 1st and then to AUD. Wont we be losing in exchange rates difference by the money changers?
We should be expecting AUD to dip a bit lower and for those interested should make their move then.
*
Good advise.

Sure, we have to keep some RM for daily use.


I've kept some AUD $100 green notes from about 1-1.5 years ago (2.8-2.95).


http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/aus...dd51b394709b666



Century1
post Dec 23 2016, 08:27 AM

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QUOTE(wonghs @ Dec 22 2016, 05:34 PM)
KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 22): Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) international reserves was unchanged at US$96.4 billion (RM399.7 billion) as at Dec 15, 2016, compared with two weeks earlier.

This is a stupid article. Why done we compare with yesterday?

Even BN governor tries to calm the market by showing increase in reserves in a week.

Last year was US$144billion
TOMEI-R
post Dec 23 2016, 09:25 AM

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QUOTE(Century1 @ Dec 23 2016, 08:27 AM)
KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 22): Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) international reserves was unchanged at US$96.4 billion (RM399.7 billion) as at Dec 15, 2016, compared with two weeks earlier.

This is a stupid article. Why done we compare with yesterday?

Even BN governor tries to calm the market by showing increase in reserves in a week.

Last year was US$144billion
*
They have to do that to keep the RM stable and the market from crashing. You dont want to warrant unnecessary panic and loss of confidence of both investors local and abroad.
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post Dec 23 2016, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(Century1 @ Dec 23 2016, 08:27 AM)
KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 22): Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) international reserves was unchanged at US$96.4 billion (RM399.7 billion) as at Dec 15, 2016, compared with two weeks earlier.

This is a stupid article. Why done we compare with yesterday?

Even BN governor tries to calm the market by showing increase in reserves in a week.

Last year was US$144billion
*
if someone with the knowledge can share, if BNM's international reserves stood at US$96.4 or RM399.70?

From the market value, US96.4 x 4.46 will be RM429.944billion.
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post Dec 23 2016, 09:34 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 23 2016, 09:25 AM)
They have to do that to keep the RM stable and the market from crashing. You dont want to warrant unnecessary panic and loss of confidence of both investors local and abroad.
*
that is kinda unprofessional. I was appointed by patients to give a report of their condition and health and leave them to digest the results. my work is just that. instead they put their political sentiments first rather than telling the truth.

how would you feel when economic analysts and government officials parade how rosy their country and soon after you invest, you find it that it isn't rosy as it seems and worst still you find it hard to take your money out from capital controls.

I mean for the run of the milk auntie and uncle investors. not us. lol
cherroy
post Dec 23 2016, 10:15 AM

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QUOTE(Century1 @ Dec 23 2016, 08:27 AM)
KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 22): Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) international reserves was unchanged at US$96.4 billion (RM399.7 billion) as at Dec 15, 2016, compared with two weeks earlier.

This is a stupid article. Why done we compare with yesterday?

Even BN governor tries to calm the market by showing increase in reserves in a week.

Last year was US$144billion
*
Nothing stupid.
Fyi, BNM has been releasing foreign currencies reserves status for every 2 week since long time ago.


QUOTE(Lcclcc @ Dec 23 2016, 09:31 AM)
if someone with the knowledge can share, if BNM's international reserves stood at US$96.4 or RM399.70?

From the market value, US96.4 x 4.46 will be RM429.944billion.
*
BNM normally only doing quarter adjustment on the exchange rate of USD vs RM, so the equivalent in RM term we see now still using last Q rate.
So next Q, we may see the adjustment.

Foreign currencies reserves matter in USD term, as it is mainly denominated in USD, as trade are mostly in USD settlement.

AVFAN
post Dec 23 2016, 10:16 AM

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QUOTE(Lcclcc @ Dec 23 2016, 09:31 AM)
if someone with the knowledge can share, if BNM's international reserves stood at US$96.4 or RM399.70?

From the market value, US96.4 x 4.46 will be RM429.944billion.
*
always look at usd.

the exchange rate is adjusted quarterly.

next report will show a much bigger no. in RM.
AVFAN
post Dec 23 2016, 10:27 AM

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$ dozing off, traders bedded for the holidays.

should pick up strength after the new year.


will $ reach parity with the euro in 2017?

in hongkong, u may get only HKD1 with RMB1!
QUOTE
One Yuan Buys You One Hong Kong Dollar -- in 7-Eleven at Least
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...eleven-at-least


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 23 2016, 10:28 AM
TOMEI-R
post Dec 23 2016, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 23 2016, 09:34 AM)
that is kinda unprofessional. I was appointed by patients to give a report of their condition and health and leave them to digest the results. my work is just that. instead they put their political sentiments first rather than telling the truth.

how would you feel when economic analysts and government officials parade how rosy their country and soon after you invest, you find it that it isn't rosy as it seems and worst still you find it hard to take your money out from capital controls.

I mean for the run of the milk auntie and uncle investors. not us. lol
*
While I dont want to go into politics and how the government is run, its really up to oneself to believe what is fed onto you. So... rolleyes.gif
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post Dec 23 2016, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 22 2016, 04:57 PM)
The way I look at it is I am earning the RM in my everyday operational activities. Hence, the RM comes in 'continuously'. When I convert out, I am actually diversifying my currency holdings.

Even if the RM strengthens later, I will continue to get the RM into my hands from my everyday activities.
*
same here. rclxms.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 23 2016, 05:41 PM

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in this new bloomberg article, morgan stanley is recommending indian rupee, brazilian real and russian ruble.

against SGD, taiwan $ and korean won.

no mention of RM.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...onomies-diverge
TOMEI-R
post Dec 24 2016, 01:00 PM

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Christmas eve... The Rm strengtened abit.

AUD $3.265.

USD $4.463.

SGD $3.090

MYR always strengthen a bit during eve and public holidays.
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post Dec 24 2016, 02:10 PM

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At the money changer, they aren't selling any USD for less than 4.50 now.
Ringgit feels like toilet paper now. shakehead.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 24 2016, 02:11 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 24 2016, 04:12 PM

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bigger problems emerging, e.g.

QUOTE
The plunging ringgit has led to problems for the LRT3 public transport rail extension project, as it is preventing bidders from bidding in it's recent open tender for rolling stock, reports Star Online.

Quoting StarBizWeek, the portal said that the trend of the weakening ringgit may have caused bidders to shy away from the tender which was to be quoted in the US dollar.

"This is because with the appreciation of the greenback, coupled with the downtrend of the ringgit, the bidders would have to fork out more for the successful completion of the tender and thus effectively eroding their profit margin," read the portal's report.
Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/367148#ixzz4Tk0mkbzs

kyone
post Dec 24 2016, 05:35 PM

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Do you think RM is oversold now? hmm.gif
How likely is the bounce back to happen (at least after Q1 '17 of course)?
AVFAN
post Dec 24 2016, 07:41 PM

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QUOTE(kyone @ Dec 24 2016, 05:35 PM)
Do you think RM is oversold now?  hmm.gif
How likely is the bounce back to happen (at least after Q1 '17 of course)?
*
what do u think?



AVFAN
post Dec 25 2016, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Dec 25 2016, 10:02 AM)
many have converted myr into sgd, i wanted too but later read that Singapore has offended China and China is going to teach Singapore a small lesson economically, also that Singapore being the running dog of the US, as a result Singapore economy has slow down and its future is not as promising as before.

USD, im also not so fond of USD as US print tonnes of money out of thin air.

MYR, totally facepalm.

so now dont know what currency to convert to, keep myr sure die.
for short term usd already peg at 4.45, najib is busy with pru14, myr temporarily artificially stable.

for long term, if bn wins pru14, myr is going worse for sure, more debt more corruptions less confidence.
*
the SGD will most likely weaken due to reasons u mentioned and the fact then MAS will want to ease it to cope with a weakening economy. still, SG has always proven to be capable of holding out better than most other countries and currencies. still a relatively safe bet, imo.

USD... not only USD but Euro, Yen all had massive rounds of QE, albeit diff methods. but the bigger thing happening now is trumponomics. such a change will be far reaching and effects will be long, more so now that yellen has "approved" a few more rate hikes. it will be a mistake to think this will last only a month or 2. but surely nobody knows how high the $ will go and how long will it last. even the biggest banks in the world can't say with confidence. for little ones like us here, i will think it best to adopt a direction u hv confidence in and keep looking for indications if the direction will change, make changes if necessary.

what i read, many are expecting the $ to keep rising in 2017. indications of "topping out" may be (or close to):

.. $ index 1.10
.. parity with Euro
.. china RMB 7.3
.. us 10 yr bond yield at 2.75%
.. us stocks start to tank, correction

** above is just the views i hv read, not a recommendation.


RM... it's basically a case of blame game and management by hope. totally at the mercy of rotten internal politics while outside development moves ahead. no concrete measures to strengthen it. in fact, i suspect "they" won't mind if it goes to 4.8-5.0. outside cyberspace, majority not complaining. so be it.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 25 2016, 11:45 AM
Hansel
post Dec 25 2016, 01:25 PM

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For myself,.. I carry the conviction that my primary motivation would be to find a currency into which I can invest with, and to make more of that currency with,... IF I can find investment instruments which are good with that currency, then that currency would be in my radar.

After that, I will evaluate if that currency is favourable in the longer term, ie, if it will depreciate later on (eg the SGD because of a weakening economy or the MAS lowering the band), or the currency having a possibility of being pushed down due to excessive stimulus (eg the USD).

Frankly, even if I think the currency may have chances of weakening in the short term, but over the longer term, it is still promising, and THERE ARE GOOD INVESTMENT ONSTRUMENTS I CAN INVEST INTO WITH THAT CURRENCY, I will still go for it.

Eventually, the money we make from the investments will offset whatever near term weaknesses from the currency,...
icemanfx
post Dec 25 2016, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Dec 25 2016, 10:02 AM)
many have converted myr into sgd, i wanted too but later read that Singapore has offended China and China is going to teach Singapore a small lesson economically, also that Singapore being the running dog of the US, as a result Singapore economy has slow down and its future is not as promising as before.

USD, im also not so fond of USD as US print tonnes of money out of thin air.

MYR, totally facepalm.

so now dont know what currency to convert to, keep myr sure die.
for short term usd already peg at 4.45, najib is busy with pru14, myr temporarily artificially stable.

for long term, if bn wins pru14, myr is going worse for sure, more debt more corruptions less confidence.
*
The slow down in SG economy is not a punishment from China. Property sector was on induced deflation by the gomen. O&G sector is another story.

Many were/are concerned with u.s qe/usd but at the same time, can't get enough of easy and cheap credit, kv property bubble; a fallout of u.s qe.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 25 2016, 09:09 PM
limeuu
post Dec 25 2016, 06:28 PM

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You all should find some Aussie tourists to change with....Mel airport currently gives them myr2.79 for aud1....lol
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post Dec 26 2016, 09:36 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Dec 24 2016, 02:10 PM)
At the money changer, they aren't selling any USD for less than 4.50 now.
Ringgit feels like toilet paper now.  shakehead.gif
*
Haha feel your pain mang doh.gif

This post has been edited by skylinelover: Dec 26 2016, 09:36 AM
Lcclcc
post Dec 26 2016, 04:32 PM

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I wonder if it's a good move,
to increase leverage(borrow more loan) to invest in property market.

My point is,

Since the ringgit is weak, so in very soon there will be increase in labour(bangla, indon, etc), steel bar prices as well as various construction materials.

There is a good chance for us to get a good property at a discounted price.

If this is a move like "SHORT" ringgit and give us the effect of hedging on currency?


Showtime747
post Dec 26 2016, 08:09 PM

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QUOTE(Lcclcc @ Dec 26 2016, 04:32 PM)
I wonder if it's a good move,
to increase leverage(borrow more loan) to invest in property market.

My point is,

Since the ringgit is weak, so in very soon there will be increase in labour(bangla, indon, etc), steel bar prices as well as various construction materials.

There is a good chance for us to get a good property at a discounted price.

If this is a move like "SHORT" ringgit and give us the effect of hedging on currency?
*
Your logic and mindset very keng !
limeuu
post Dec 26 2016, 08:27 PM

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QUOTE(Lcclcc @ Dec 26 2016, 04:32 PM)
I wonder if it's a good move,
to increase leverage(borrow more loan) to invest in property market.

My point is,

Since the ringgit is weak, so in very soon there will be increase in labour(bangla, indon, etc), steel bar prices as well as various construction materials.

There is a good chance for us to get a good property at a discounted price.

If this is a move like "SHORT" ringgit and give us the effect of hedging on currency?
*
only works if the property market is real, with little of no speculation, ie the value is based on cost plus....

in a bubble market, price depreciation is real, in spite of currency devaluation....subprime/2008 is a perfect example....

so how much of msia's property market is in a speculative bubble?....
AVFAN
post Dec 27 2016, 10:36 AM

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QUOTE

user posted image

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 27 2016, 10:37 AM
Hansel
post Dec 27 2016, 11:14 AM

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An interpretation would be the moment there is capital flight back to The US, most of the sellouts are against the Ringgit compared against the other Asian currencies.

Another interpretation would be most of the loans held inside Msia are by foreigners.
icemanfx
post Dec 27 2016, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 27 2016, 11:14 AM)
An interpretation would be the moment there is capital flight back to The US, most of the sellouts are against the Ringgit compared against the other Asian currencies.

Another interpretation would be most of the loans held inside Msia are by foreigners.
*
First wave of u.s qe aftershocks.


AVFAN
post Dec 27 2016, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 27 2016, 11:14 AM)
An interpretation would be the moment there is capital flight back to The US, most of the sellouts are against the Ringgit compared against the other Asian currencies.

Another interpretation would be most of the loans held inside Msia are by foreigners.
*
we know foreign ownership WAS 45-50%; no figure what it is since the sell off.

there is also bursa sell off.



besides returning to USA, the money is also being reallocated to other emerging markets - thailand, vietnam, pakistan stock markets gained well in 2016.

same with czech republic, hungary and poland in europe.

for that to happen, investors must be bullish and confident about that market, that country.

obviously, the reverse is true.
Hansel
post Dec 27 2016, 11:48 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 27 2016, 11:37 AM)
we know foreign ownership WAS 45-50%; no figure what it is since the sell off.

there is also bursa sell off.
besides returning to USA, the money is also being reallocated to other emerging markets - thailand, vietnam, pakistan stock markets gained well in 2016.

same with czech republic, hungary and poland in europe.

for that to happen, investors must be bullish and confident about that market, that country.

obviously, the reverse is true.
*
Bursa selloff and bonds selloff would both constitute capital flight out !

Funds are being reallocated to other EMs, then this means even if there has not been such a big event as DT winning the US Elections, you mean the RM would still drop this low as it is today ? Somehow I can't fully-agree, because I noticed the main drop of the RM came after the elections.
icemanfx
post Dec 27 2016, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 27 2016, 11:48 AM)
Bursa selloff and bonds selloff would both constitute capital flight out !

Funds are being reallocated to other EMs, then this means even if there has not been such a big event as DT winning the US Elections, you mean the RM would still drop this low as it is today ? Somehow I can't fully-agree, because I noticed the main drop of the RM came after the elections.
*
U.s president election was a tipping point or trigger.

Hansel
post Dec 27 2016, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 27 2016, 11:34 AM)
First wave of u.s qe aftershocks.
*
The end of easy money, you mean ?? Now the waves will start to hit us, and the world over ??
AVFAN
post Dec 27 2016, 12:03 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 27 2016, 11:48 AM)
Bursa selloff and bonds selloff would both constitute capital flight out !

Funds are being reallocated to other EMs, then this means even if there has not been such a big event as DT winning the US Elections, you mean the RM would still drop this low as it is today ? Somehow I can't fully-agree, because I noticed the main drop of the RM came after the elections.
*
capital in and out happens all the time.

and there is ILLICIT capital flight which we hear nothing about internally and probably compounded the RM's weakness.


"money returning to USA" is more correctly "money converted back to USD".

what i read, a lot has gone into US equities on a net basis, but a lot is still in cash, in transit, working as hot funds around the globe.


next for RM.. everyone has a view.

true that the main fall is due to trump win.

question is how long does one think the resulting events and implications yet to come will be.

an equally impt question is one's view of what actions will come locally, if any, to inspire confidence or do the opposite.
icemanfx
post Dec 27 2016, 12:05 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 27 2016, 11:54 AM)
The end of easy money, you mean ?? Now the waves will start to hit us, and the world over ??
*
In simplicity, yes.

Hansel
post Dec 27 2016, 01:52 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 27 2016, 12:03 PM)
capital in and out happens all the time.

and there is ILLICIT capital flight which we hear nothing about internally and probably compounded the RM's weakness.
"money returning to USA" is more correctly "money converted back to USD".

what i read, a lot has gone into US equities on a net basis, but a lot is still in cash, in transit, working as hot funds around the globe.
next for RM.. everyone has a view.

true that the main fall is due to trump win.

question is how long does one think the resulting events and implications yet to come will be.

an equally impt question is one's view of what actions will come locally, if any, to inspire confidence or do the opposite.
*
Good opinions there, bro,.... thumbsup.gif

Probably, to each his own,... but for myself, the impt questions are :-

1) how long will the RM weaken vs the other major currencies, and how far will it drop before it stabilizes ? This is with the assumption that the BNM can continue to defend the RM.
2) what will BNM do next to 'defend' the currency, eg, will it stop our funds from moving out freely ?
icemanfx
post Dec 27 2016, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 27 2016, 01:52 PM)
Good opinions there, bro,.... :thumbsup:

Probably, to each his own,... but for myself, the impt questions are :-

1) how long will the RM weaken vs the other major currencies, and how far will it drop before it stabilizes ? This is with the assumption that the BNM can continue to defend the RM.
2) what will BNM do next to 'defend' the currency, eg, will it stop our funds from moving out freely ?
*
Why bnm need to defend Myr? Petronas earning is in us$ and gomen opex is in myr. Weaken Myr mean more bang for a buck. Otherwise, bnm will need to rise bank interest rate.

AVFAN
post Dec 27 2016, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 27 2016, 01:52 PM)
2) what will BNM do next to 'defend' the currency, eg, will it stop our funds from moving out freely ?
*
this, i think is too hypothetical, not in the current picture.

there is room for other options, although none is pretty.

what we are seeing now... intervention at 4.47/4.48... looking like what they call a "crawling peg".

i am still reading about the most recent cases - mexican peso 1994, thai baht 1997, kazakhstani tenge 2015, egyptian pound 2016.

some interesting stuff in those stories.

one thing common to all of them - in the end they all devalued, and hike interest rates to combat hyperinflation.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 27 2016, 03:24 PM
cherroy
post Dec 27 2016, 03:28 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 27 2016, 01:52 PM)
Good opinions there, bro,.... thumbsup.gif

Probably, to each his own,... but for myself, the impt questions are :-

1) how long will the RM weaken vs the other major currencies, and how far will it drop before it stabilizes ? This is with the assumption that the BNM can continue to defend the RM.
2) what will BNM do next to 'defend' the currency, eg, will it stop our funds from moving out freely ?
*
1) The correct answer of your question worth billions of dollar/RM.
The one get it right can easily earn a big fortune.

Nobody can guess RM vs USD strengthened to RM3.20, when it was initially pegged at Rm3.80 time 18 years ago.
while little people predicted RM to depreciate to Rm4.47 prior before the US election, sums up how difficult to have a guess game in financial world.

2) by seeing the latest measures, foreign currency reserves status and RM movement, there is no urgency need for full pledged capital control like 1998.

The more important questions one should mind of

1) what if RM weaken, is my investment portfolio able to stand it, or benefit from it.
2) what if RM strengthen, is my investment portfolio is going to suffer, or how to benefit from it.
3) is my portfolio is diversified enough to weather the uncertainty environment.
4) where is the opportunity if those situation happening.

cherroy
post Dec 27 2016, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 27 2016, 03:01 PM)
this, i think is too hypothetical, not in the current picture.

there is room for other options, although none is pretty.

what we are seeing now... intervention at 4.47/4.48... looking like what they call a "crawling peg".

i am still reading about the most recent cases - mexican peso 1994, thai baht 1997, kazakhstani tenge 2015, egyptian pound 2016.

some interesting stuff in those stories.

one thing common to all of them - in the end they all devalued, and hike interest rates to combat hyperinflation.
*
The main purpose of hiking of interest rate in those situation was for reducing the capital flight.
Hansel
post Dec 27 2016, 05:21 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 27 2016, 02:53 PM)
Why bnm need to defend Myr? Petronas earning is in us$ and gomen opex is in myr. Weaken Myr mean more bang for a buck. Otherwise, bnm will need to rise bank interest rate.
*
Frankly,... with the current condition of this country, what sort of increase in interest rate will attract investors back here ?? I don't think 25 bps will be enough,..
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post Dec 27 2016, 05:36 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 27 2016, 05:21 PM)
Frankly,... with the current condition of this country, what sort of increase in interest rate will attract investors back here ?? I don't think 25 bps will be enough,..
*
No hike in interest rate. Why? All of SEA are in a race of currency to the bottom (there's a currency war right now where SEA countries are trying to bring down their currency). BNM cannot just go against the flow.
Andrew Lim
post Dec 27 2016, 06:46 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 27 2016, 05:36 PM)
No hike in interest rate. Why? All of SEA are in a race of currency to the bottom (there's a currency war right now where SEA countries are trying to bring down their currency). BNM cannot just go against the flow.
*
A small interest rate hike should be fine - Malaysia's currency is already the worst-performing in SEA. A little strengthening won't hurt.
AVFAN
post Dec 27 2016, 07:03 PM

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QUOTE(Andrew Lim @ Dec 27 2016, 06:46 PM)
A small interest rate hike should be fine - Malaysia's currency is already the worst-performing in SEA. A little strengthening won't hurt.
*
QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 27 2016, 05:21 PM)
Frankly,... with the current condition of this country, what sort of increase in interest rate will attract investors back here ?? I don't think 25 bps will be enough,..
*
i also think 25bps will do nothing. maybe 2% will.

but a token incr will be seen as a right move, an acceptance of current conditions and not outright denial.

it may prompt investors to shed some of the negativity and get positive that bnm will raise rates in tandem with fed hike.

no action will imply readiness for an even weaker RM.

investors are now extra sensitive to what signals gomen and bnm are sending.



SUSthe99percent1
post Dec 28 2016, 11:09 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 27 2016, 07:03 PM)
i also think 25bps will do nothing. maybe 2% will.

but a token incr will be seen as a right move, an acceptance of current conditions and not outright denial.

it may prompt investors to shed some of the negativity and get positive that bnm will raise rates in tandem with fed hike.

no action will imply readiness for an even weaker RM.

investors are now extra sensitive to what signals gomen and bnm are sending.
*
you crazy.. 2% hike will kill so many home owners on mortgage..
AVFAN
post Dec 28 2016, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(the99percent1 @ Dec 28 2016, 11:09 AM)
you crazy.. 2% hike will kill so many home owners on mortgage..
*
that's the point.

if mortgage owners are to be spared, there is no other way but to let the RM depr further.

until the confidence returns.
icemanfx
post Dec 28 2016, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(the99percent1 @ Dec 28 2016, 11:09 AM)
you crazy.. 2% hike will kill so many home owners on mortgage..
*
Bank interest rate tends to track inflation rate.

Many claimed property is a hedge against inflation.

2% hike over the next 2 to 3 years is not unexpected.

SUSthe99percent1
post Dec 28 2016, 12:02 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 28 2016, 11:38 AM)
Bank interest rate tends to track inflation rate.

Many claimed property is a hedge against inflation.

2% hike over the next 2 to 3 years is not unexpected.
*
A 2% hike on a fresh 35 years 600k RM loan equals to additional 300k RM in interest payments! (using 4.25% ELR adjusted to 6.25% ELR)

Bank interest rates does not track inflation rate, where you get that idea from? inflation normally reduces if interest rates rises.

but your home loan mortgage is fubar. Not to mention, no secure investment will return you 6%, so you are losing money to the banks..

As I mentioned, 2% is suicidal and will cripple the housing market, the banks and the economy.

This post has been edited by the99percent1: Dec 28 2016, 12:10 PM
Hansel
post Dec 28 2016, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 28 2016, 11:12 AM)
that's the point.

if mortgage owners are to be spared, there is no other way but to let the RM depr further.

until the confidence returns.
*
QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 28 2016, 11:38 AM)
Bank interest rate tends to track inflation rate.

Many claimed property is a hedge against inflation.

2% hike over the next 2 to 3 years is not unexpected.
*
QUOTE(the99percent1 @ Dec 28 2016, 12:02 PM)
A 2% hike on a fresh 35 years 600k RM loan equals to additional 300k RM in interest payments! (using 4.25% ELR adjusted to 6.25% ELR) 

Bank interest rates does not track inflation rate, where you get that idea from?  inflation normally reduces if interest rates rises.

but your home loan mortgage is fubar. Not to mention, no secure investment will return you 6%, so you are losing money to the banks..

As I mentioned, 2% is suicidal and will cripple the housing market, the banks and the economy.
*
All these discussions keep signaling to me that there is really no way out for the RM but to depreciate further in 2017 !!!

icemanfx
post Dec 28 2016, 02:25 PM

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QUOTE(the99percent1 @ Dec 28 2016, 12:02 PM)
A 2% hike on a fresh 35 years 600k RM loan equals to additional 300k RM in interest payments! (using 4.25% ELR adjusted to 6.25% ELR) 

Bank interest rates does not track inflation rate, where you get that idea from?  inflation normally reduces if interest rates rises.

but your home loan mortgage is fubar. Not to mention, no secure investment will return you 6%, so you are losing money to the banks..

As I mentioned, 2% is suicidal and will cripple the housing market, the banks and the economy.
*
Central banks tend to keep bank interest rate marginally above inflation rate. If inflation rate rise, bank interest rate will rise/track to protect and preserve saving in banking system. To curb inflation rate, bank interest rate could goes higher than inflation rate.

Before 2008, it was not uncommon to get 6% return on secured investment e.g u.s Treasury bonds.

Low interest rate and easy credit was a u.s qe fallout or exceptional environment. Believe fed is working to return to pre 2008 norm.

2% interest rate rise will not cripple the banks or the economy as was in this environment or higher rate before 2008. Only those over geared may suffer if their income don't rise fast enough.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 28 2016, 04:31 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 28 2016, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 28 2016, 12:32 PM)
All these discussions keep signaling to me that there is really no way out for the RM but to depreciate further in 2017 !!!
*
there may already be some indication today.

the weeks old 4.47x barrier's been broken, now at 4.4835.

can't see how it can stay put when yen, RMB, won, SGD are all sliding.

a crawling peg, it is.
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post Dec 28 2016, 10:38 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 28 2016, 05:10 PM)
there may already be some indication today.

the weeks old 4.47x barrier's been broken, now at 4.4835.

can't see how it can stay put when yen, RMB, won, SGD are all sliding.

a crawling peg, it is.
*
The other countries are not defending with their reserves. Hence, perhaps the RM can stay put and not slide like the rest !
AVFAN
post Dec 29 2016, 10:58 AM

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a perspective from bangkok:

QUOTE
Thai capital outflow muted amid ringgit rout
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1...id-ringgit-rout

TOMEI-R
post Dec 29 2016, 11:09 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 28 2016, 05:10 PM)
there may already be some indication today.

the weeks old 4.47x barrier's been broken, now at 4.4835.

can't see how it can stay put when yen, RMB, won, SGD are all sliding.

a crawling peg, it is.
*
But the Ringgit is still standing still while other currencies are sliding a little bit, with the exception for US Dollar of course. Good sign or temporary relief? unsure.gif

QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 28 2016, 10:38 PM)
The other countries are not defending with their reserves. Hence, perhaps the RM can stay put and not slide like the rest !
*
Hopefully, but then again maybe its high time to change to the 'sliding' currencies? AUD is really attractive now at 3.243. rolleyes.gif
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post Dec 29 2016, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 29 2016, 11:09 AM)
But the Ringgit is still standing still while other currencies are sliding a little bit, with the exception for US Dollar of course. Good sign or temporary relief?  unsure.gif
Hopefully, but then again maybe its high time to change to the 'sliding' currencies? AUD is really attractive now at 3.243. rolleyes.gif
*
Hard to gauge...

Bnm said its was intervening, has not said anything else since.

My observation, if other majors decline 1% and rm declines only 0.25%, that says a lot.

Until other major development arise, i would not expect the rm to strengthen significantly.

For now, its flirting with 4.50, something we can expect bnm to defend like hell.
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post Dec 29 2016, 06:08 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 29 2016, 11:09 AM)
But the Ringgit is still standing still while other currencies are sliding a little bit, with the exception for US Dollar of course. Good sign or temporary relief?  unsure.gif
Hopefully, but then again maybe its high time to change to the 'sliding' currencies? AUD is really attractive now at 3.243. rolleyes.gif
*
Yeah,... AUD is good now,... but only if we have use for AUD in the immediate future, will we change to the AUD now to mitigate the forex risks against this currency that we needed now.

Otherwise, since the USD is targetted to appreciate against ALL currencies in future, wouldn't it be logical to change over into the USD as an interim currency for now ? Then the moment we have use for, say, the AUD sometime in future, then we convert from the USDs in our hands into the AUD,.... good move ?
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post Dec 29 2016, 06:20 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 29 2016, 10:58 AM)
a perspective from bangkok:
*
Read through the article by the Bangkok Post. I get the feeling that they are really 'hammering' Msia. Not that I disagree with what their editor approved for publication, or that I am supporting what Msia is doing,... but really,... the Thais are commenting badly against 'us'...
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 29 2016, 06:08 PM)
Yeah,... AUD is good now,... but only if we have use for AUD in the immediate future, will we change to the AUD now to mitigate the forex risks against this currency that we needed now.

Otherwise, since the USD is targetted to appreciate against ALL currencies in future, wouldn't it be logical to change over into the USD as an interim currency for now ? Then the moment we have use for, say, the AUD sometime in future, then we convert from the USDs in our hands into the AUD,.... good move ?
*
But the USD is at 4.48 now... sweat.gif Not sure if its a good move to enter now.
AVFAN
post Dec 29 2016, 06:30 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 29 2016, 06:08 PM)
Otherwise, since the USD is targetted to appreciate against ALL currencies in future, wouldn't it be logical to change over into the USD as an interim currency for now ? Then the moment we have use for, say, the AUD sometime in future, then we convert from the USDs in our hands into the AUD,.... good move ?
*
the $ will gyrate but the uptrend is intact.

such major moves gather a lot of momentum, will not last for just a month for 2.

esp when the fed continues to talk hawkish.

remember, trump hasn't even been sworn in!

QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 29 2016, 06:20 PM)
Read through the article by the Bangkok Post. I get the feeling that they are really 'hammering' Msia. Not that I disagree with what their editor approved for publication, or that I am supporting what Msia is doing,... but really,... the Thais are commenting badly against 'us'...
*
one must not be emotional when reading local or foreign reports.

if u do, u will become biased and not read much.

compared to some local experts/bernama reports, i thought the article was fair.


if interested, read this one... has some good data on world currencies:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-assets-of-2016
Hansel
post Dec 29 2016, 06:40 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 29 2016, 06:22 PM)
But the USD is at 4.48 now... sweat.gif  Not sure if its a good move to enter now.
*
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 29 2016, 06:30 PM)
the $ will gyrate but the uptrend is intact.

such major moves gather a lot of momentum, will not last for just a month for 2.

esp when the fed continues to talk hawkish.

remember, trump hasn't even been sworn in!
one must not be emotional when reading local or foreign reports.

if u do, u will become biased and not read much.

compared to some local experts/bernama reports, i thought the article was fair.
if interested, read this one... has some good data on world currencies:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-assets-of-2016
*
In bold,.. that's what I thought too,... DT is not even officially onboard yet ! Wait till Jan 20, Friday, when he sits there officially,.. BUT : if he changes his policy totally from what he promised to do earlier, then the USD will weaken back !!!!!!!!! brows.gif

Then there is also the probability that everything has been priced in already by now.
Hansel
post Dec 29 2016, 06:45 PM

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Bro AVFAN,... where do you see to derive the below ?

"the weeks old 4.47x barrier's been broken, now at 4.4835."
AVFAN
post Dec 29 2016, 07:00 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 29 2016, 06:40 PM)
In bold,.. that's what I thought too,... DT is not even officially onboard yet ! Wait till Jan 20, Friday, when he sits there officially,.. BUT : if he changes his policy totally from what he promised to do earlier, then the USD will weaken back !!!!!!!!!  brows.gif

Then there is also the probability that everything has been priced in already by now.
*
that is surely one way to look at it. just like when RM was 4.0, all has been priced in. tongue.gif

but i think besides trump major actions (with china, mexico, whatever) if any, a lot will hinge on how the market will view fed's "several hikes coming" talk. many don't believe it will do that in 2017, so, that is NOT fully priced in. it's a continuous game, very fluid.

QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 29 2016, 06:45 PM)
Bro AVFAN,... where do you see to derive the below ?

"the weeks old 4.47x barrier's been broken, now at 4.4835."
*
i look at BNM, bloomberg and XE.com data.

do u not see it has "graduated" from 4.47x to 4.48x in the last few days?

i also noticed that the korean won has dived a lot more while the RM stayed good.

so, think about a winter holiday in seoul soon. laugh.gif


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post Dec 29 2016, 07:09 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 29 2016, 07:00 PM)
that is surely one way to look at it. just like when RM was 4.0, all has been priced in. tongue.gif

but i think besides trump major actions (with china, mexico, whatever) if any, a lot will hinge on how the market will view fed's "several hikes coming" talk. many don't believe it will do that in 2017, so, that is NOT fully priced in. it's a continuous game, very fluid.
i look at BNM, bloomberg and XE.com data.

do u not see it has "graduated" from 4.47x to 4.48x in the last few days?

i also noticed that the korean won has dived a lot more while the RM stayed good.

so, think about a winter holiday in seoul soon. laugh.gif
*
Agreed with taikors (few of u out there) that what Trump actually do (from what he says) will be a factor for the USD movement in 2017. Akan datang ! tongue.gif

My "D" day coming next week. Just hoping that RM holds ........................... bruce.gif

This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 29 2016, 07:09 PM
TOMEI-R
post Dec 29 2016, 07:35 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 29 2016, 06:40 PM)
In bold,.. that's what I thought too,... DT is not even officially onboard yet ! Wait till Jan 20, Friday, when he sits there officially,.. BUT : if he changes his policy totally from what he promised to do earlier, then the USD will weaken back !!!!!!!!!  brows.gif

Then there is also the probability that everything has been priced in already by now.
*
Quite true to that. But IMO DT has to implement what he mentioned. If not he would be called a Liar and I dont think that is what he wants on his first term as President. laugh.gif To weaken the USD, we must hope for some failed implementation or strategies by DT. But knowing DT is a businessman with acute business knowledge and experience, I wouldnt put my money there.


QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 29 2016, 07:00 PM)
that is surely one way to look at it. just like when RM was 4.0, all has been priced in. tongue.gif

but i think besides trump major actions (with china, mexico, whatever) if any, a lot will hinge on how the market will view fed's "several hikes coming" talk. many don't believe it will do that in 2017, so, that is NOT fully priced in. it's a continuous game, very fluid.
i look at BNM, bloomberg and XE.com data.

do u not see it has "graduated" from 4.47x to 4.48x in the last few days?

i also noticed that the korean won has dived a lot more while the RM stayed good.

so, think about a winter holiday in seoul soon. laugh.gif
*
Thats a pretty good idea. Korean Ramen now anyone? Nah.. im more inclined towards the Aussie dollar besides SGD. I think it would be a much safer bet. 'Angmoh' money ma.
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post Dec 29 2016, 09:41 PM

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Tq AV,.. bbgoat and Tomer fro your good insights and opinions,... I don't know what else to comment upon,... so much uncertainties now.

Think I'll just continue converting out my RM !
icemanfx
post Dec 29 2016, 10:30 PM

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user posted image

Like the gomen said; myr is not the worst performer in 2016.

bbgoat
post Dec 29 2016, 10:34 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 29 2016, 09:41 PM)
Tq AV,.. bbgoat and Tomer fro your good insights and opinions,... I don't know what else to comment upon,... so much uncertainties now.

Think I'll just continue converting out my RM !
*
I talked to CIMB branch manager on buying foreign retail bonds. Her opinion is USD too high, not a good idea to buy. SGD or A$ will be better choice. Their view is S$ may appreciate more vs RM in 2017. biggrin.gif
TOMEI-R
post Dec 29 2016, 10:48 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 29 2016, 09:41 PM)
Tq AV,.. bbgoat and Tomer fro your good insights and opinions,... I don't know what else to comment upon,... so much uncertainties now.

Think I'll just continue converting out my RM !
*
Mind sharing which currency u are going for? tongue.gif
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post Dec 29 2016, 10:51 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 29 2016, 10:30 PM)
user posted image

Like the gomen said; myr is not the worst performer in 2016.
*
Like K's would love to say... Cukurlah...

Damn... those are third world countries or underdeveloped countries. How can compare with Malaysia? laugh.gif
icemanfx
post Dec 29 2016, 11:51 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 29 2016, 10:51 PM)
Like K's would love to say... Cukurlah...

Damn... those are third world countries or underdeveloped countries. How can compare with Malaysia? laugh.gif
*
You expect to compare with developed countries?

SUSlowya
post Dec 30 2016, 08:36 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 29 2016, 10:30 PM)

Like the gomen said; myr is not the worst performer in 2016.
*
when your gomen has to compare itself with the worse, brace yourself.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 30 2016, 08:55 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 29 2016, 11:51 PM)
You expect to compare with developed countries?
*
Compare with Indonesia, Thailand and similar countries. You just want to feel good then go ahead.

QUOTE(lowya @ Dec 30 2016, 08:36 AM)
when your gomen has to compare itself with the worse, brace yourself.
*
To make themselves look good. What else?

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 30 2016, 08:58 AM
Ramjade
post Dec 30 2016, 09:05 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 30 2016, 08:55 AM)
Compare with Indonesia, Thailand and similar countries. You just want to feel good then go ahead.
*
If compare with the above already lose out doh.gif
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post Dec 30 2016, 09:08 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 30 2016, 09:05 AM)
If compare with the above already lose out  doh.gif
*
Thats why. Even lose out with Bangladesh which people like to troll on. Their currency stands stronger against RM now compared with last time. Even the Bangla workers here are complaining.
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post Dec 30 2016, 09:11 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 30 2016, 09:05 AM)
If compare with the above already lose out  doh.gif
*
Thats why. Even lose out to Bangladesh which people like to look down on. Their currency stands stronger against RM now compared with last time. Even the Bangla workers here are complaining.

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 30 2016, 09:16 AM
prophetjul
post Dec 30 2016, 09:11 AM

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We are just accepting ourselves 3rd world or a better name, emerging.

Therefore, we are satisfied compared to 3rd world in all aspects.
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post Dec 30 2016, 10:06 AM

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Only thing to do now is to convert out whatever we have. Other things are all beyond our control !
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post Dec 30 2016, 10:22 AM

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today is probably a good day to buy USD:

.. $ index at 2 week low.
.. thin trade at year end, short term players pushing up euro.
.. china expanding RMB basket of currencies on 1 jan 2017, likely to move down further.

Hansel
post Dec 30 2016, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 10:22 AM)
today is probably a good day to buy USD:

.. $ index at 2 week low.
.. thin trade at year end, short term players pushing up euro.
.. china expanding RMB basket of currencies on 1 jan 2017, likely to move down further.
*

But moneychangers are not dropping USD exchange rates this morning.

RMB should strengthen if they increase the basket of currencies, right ?
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post Dec 30 2016, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 30 2016, 09:08 AM)
Thats why.  Even lose out with Bangladesh which people like to troll on.  Their currency stands stronger against RM now compared with last time. Even the Bangla workers here are complaining.
*
Good, they can go back to their country then
Clement1001
post Dec 30 2016, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 29 2016, 11:51 PM)
You expect to compare with developed countries?
*
At least compare with ASEAN, are we are not the worst performer?

This post has been edited by Clement1001: Dec 30 2016, 11:08 AM
AVFAN
post Dec 30 2016, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 30 2016, 10:45 AM)
But moneychangers are not dropping USD exchange rates this morning.

RMB should strengthen if they increase the basket of currencies, right ?
*
with rm, little has changed. "peg", remember? biggrin.gif

i was alluding to if the $ continues to rise after the new year, pressure on the "peg" will incr, it may be forced to crawl to a new peg.


new RMB basket... a clue:
QUOTE
China will change the way it calculates a key yuan index in the new year, nearly doubling the number of foreign currencies in a basket that is used to set the yuan's value, its foreign exchange market operator said late on Thursday.

China has been promoting use of the index partly to divert attention from the yuan's value against the dollar which has fallen near its lowest in 8-1/2 years.


what happens next will be how much BNM wants the RM to be relative to its largest trading partners, china being #1.
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post Dec 30 2016, 12:11 PM

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question to all the vets here. I am investing all my money through unit trust which is all in Ringgit malaysia.

so lets say I convert my money to Singapore dollars at the money exchange. which is what some of you are doing. converting out. what do you do with the hard cash anyways? or I'm getting wrong message reading this thread? when you say convert out how do you all do it?


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post Dec 30 2016, 12:19 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 30 2016, 12:11 PM)
question to all the vets here. I am investing all my money through unit trust which is all in Ringgit malaysia.

so lets say I convert my money to Singapore dollars at the money exchange. which is what some of you are doing. converting out. what do you do with the hard cash anyways? or I'm getting wrong message reading this thread? when you say convert out how do you all do it?
*
Buy SG stocks, buy US stocks (use interactive broker to buy)
AVFAN
post Dec 30 2016, 12:55 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 30 2016, 12:11 PM)
question to all the vets here. I am investing all my money through unit trust which is all in Ringgit malaysia.

so lets say I convert my money to Singapore dollars at the money exchange. which is what some of you are doing. converting out. what do you do with the hard cash anyways? or I'm getting wrong message reading this thread? when you say convert out how do you all do it?
*
this question, in both general and specific sense has been asked many times in this thread.

there is no single answer but a list. diff people use diff ways according to the amount, individual needs, risk appetite, cost and convenience, e.g.

1. buy foreign notes at money changer, keep under mattress.
.. easiest, good rates, small amounts, not an inv, only FX risk.

2. buy foreign notes at money changer, put in bag and travel abroad to deposit.
.. subject to FX/immigration laws, risk of theft n robbery.

3. buy foreign equities with local banks/brokers.
.. easy to do, but high brokerage fees, potentially high spread.
.. new BNM rule says for individual, limit is RM1 mil minus outstanding RM loan liability (1 house exempted, i believe); no limit for those w/o loan.

4. buy foreign equities with foreign brokers.
.. harder to open account now with say Interactive Brokers, Ameritrade.
.. money to be TT'ed subject to same new BNm rule of RM1mil.

5. buy with DCI or dual currency inv accounts with local banks.
.. useful for those expecting to actually use the hard currency when time comes.
.. the usual FX risk for those who do not plan to use the foreign currency.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 30 2016, 01:07 PM
Avangelice
post Dec 30 2016, 01:49 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 12:55 PM)
this question, in both general and specific sense has been asked many times in this thread.

there is no single answer but a list. diff people use diff ways according to the amount, individual needs, risk appetite, cost and convenience, e.g.

1. buy foreign notes at money changer, keep under mattress.
.. easiest, good rates, small amounts, not an inv, only FX risk.

2. buy foreign notes at money changer, put in bag and travel abroad to deposit.
.. subject to FX/immigration laws, risk of theft n robbery.

3. buy foreign equities with local banks/brokers.
.. easy to do, but high brokerage fees, potentially high spread.
.. new BNM rule says for individual, limit is RM1 mil minus outstanding RM loan liability (1 house exempted, i believe); no limit for those w/o loan.

4. buy foreign equities with foreign brokers.
.. harder to open account now with say Interactive Brokers, Ameritrade.
.. money to be TT'ed subject to same new BNm rule of RM1mil.

5. buy with DCI or dual currency inv accounts with local banks.
.. useful for those expecting to actually use the hard currency when time comes.
.. the usual FX risk for those who do not plan to use the foreign currency.
*
thank you. looks like none of this is for me as it's either you lose or either you win unless you move alot of cash. being in kuching is a handicap where we need to charter a flight just to go to Singapore

SUSlowya
post Dec 30 2016, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 12:55 PM)


1. buy foreign notes at money changer, keep under mattress.
.. easiest, good rates, small amounts, not an inv, only FX risk.


*
any foreign inv method instead?
bbgoat
post Dec 30 2016, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 12:55 PM)
this question, in both general and specific sense has been asked many times in this thread.

there is no single answer but a list. diff people use diff ways according to the amount, individual needs, risk appetite, cost and convenience, e.g.

1. buy foreign notes at money changer, keep under mattress.
.. easiest, good rates, small amounts, not an inv, only FX risk.

2. buy foreign notes at money changer, put in bag and travel abroad to deposit.
.. subject to FX/immigration laws, risk of theft n robbery.

3. buy foreign equities with local banks/brokers.
.. easy to do, but high brokerage fees, potentially high spread.
.. new BNM rule says for individual, limit is RM1 mil minus outstanding RM loan liability (1 house exempted, i believe); no limit for those w/o loan.

4. buy foreign equities with foreign brokers.
.. harder to open account now with say Interactive Brokers, Ameritrade.
.. money to be TT'ed subject to same new BNm rule of RM1mil.

5. buy with DCI or dual currency inv accounts with local banks.
.. useful for those expecting to actually use the hard currency when time comes.
.. the usual FX risk for those who do not plan to use the foreign currency.
*
How about buying foreign retail bonds (USD, S$, A$, pound etc) through local banks ?

This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 30 2016, 02:49 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 30 2016, 03:19 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Dec 30 2016, 02:10 PM)
any foreign inv method instead?
*
keeping cash under the pillow or as a deposit not an inv.

the ones involving foreign equities, be it regular stocks, reits or etf's are.

QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 30 2016, 02:47 PM)
How about buying foreign retail bonds (USD, S$, A$, pound etc) through local banks ?
*
this one, i do not know.

but given current BNM rules, i would expect the same tight rules.
everything must go thru RM.
the buy/sell charges and ex rate spread will be most impt to know - for both buy/sell and coupon payments.
since those currencies bond yields are usually low, japan/germany <1%, others maybe 2-3%.
will be bad if say, the total spread+other charges is 1% when the coupon rate is 2%.

if u can share some details, terms & conditions of these bonds, can get more comments.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 30 2016, 03:44 PM
icemanfx
post Dec 30 2016, 03:21 PM

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QUOTE(Clement1001 @ Dec 30 2016, 11:07 AM)
At least compare with ASEAN, are we are not the worst performer?
*
user posted image

Hope you are satisfied and happy.

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post Dec 30 2016, 03:38 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 30 2016, 03:21 PM)
user posted image

Hope you are satisfied and happy.
*
I scroll & scroll , ah there we are ! Happy for research purposes !
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post Dec 30 2016, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 03:19 PM)
this one, i do not know.

but given current BNM rules, i would expect the same tight rules.
everything must go thru RM.
the ex rate spread will be most impt to know - for both buy/sell and coupon payments.
will be bad if say, the total spread+other charges is 2% when the coupon rate is 4%.

if u can share some details, terms & conditions of these bonds, can get more comments.
*
Having learn from taikors here, trying to diversify to other currencies. Still learning.

Coupon rate of 4% is low. I was shown effective returns like 1 to 7.5% depending on maturity and current price. Minimum purchase is like 250k in S$, US$ or A$ though some bonds may be lower. UK pound is 100k.

If do Reverse REPO can borrow from bank to offset initial purchase MYR needed to put in. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 30 2016, 03:46 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 30 2016, 03:51 PM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 30 2016, 03:46 PM)
Coupon rate of 4% is low. I was shown effective returns like 1 to 7.5% depending on maturity and current price. Minimum purchase is like 250k in S$, US$ or A$ though some bonds may be lower. UK pound is 100k.

*
there are no $, yen, SGD, AUD bonds that have such high yields like 7%... maybe junk/high risk bonds?

or are these "projected effective returns" in RM?

if so, that mean the projection is saying RM will depr! biggrin.gif


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post Dec 30 2016, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 03:51 PM)
there are no $, yen, SGD, AUD bonds that have such high yields like 7%... maybe junk/high risk bonds?

or are these "projected effective returns" in RM?

if so, that mean the projection is saying RM will depr! biggrin.gif
*
It is an Aussie bond. Rating shown as Aa2. tongue.gif

Did u buy any of the foreign retail bond ?
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post Dec 30 2016, 04:11 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 30 2016, 01:49 PM)
thank you. looks like none of this is for me as it's either you lose or either you win unless you move alot of cash. being in kuching is a handicap where we need to charter a flight just to go to Singapore
*
Try looking at Bruneian Dollar. Its holding similar value with SGD and its near you.

whistling.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 30 2016, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 30 2016, 03:54 PM)
It is an Aussie bond. Rating shown as Aa2.  tongue.gif

Did u buy any of the foreign retail bond ?
*
i dun hv any.

just for discussion...
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bon...bonds/australia

the 5 yr... coupon is 5.75%, price 117.68, yield 2.32%.

given the local banks' notorious spreads and charges on FX, i can't see how buying with RM will be worth it unless one is projecting both aussie bonds will rise and AUD strengthen against RM dramatically at the same time during the 5 yr period.

hard for that to happen... AUD can strengthen with int rate hikes as economy improves, but bond prices will drop.

or if rates are cut, bond prices rise, but AUD will weaken.


TOMEI-R
post Dec 30 2016, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 12:55 PM)
this question, in both general and specific sense has been asked many times in this thread.

there is no single answer but a list. diff people use diff ways according to the amount, individual needs, risk appetite, cost and convenience, e.g.

1. buy foreign notes at money changer, keep under mattress.
.. easiest, good rates, small amounts, not an inv, only FX risk.

2. buy foreign notes at money changer, put in bag and travel abroad to deposit.
.. subject to FX/immigration laws, risk of theft n robbery.

3. buy foreign equities with local banks/brokers.
.. easy to do, but high brokerage fees, potentially high spread.
.. new BNM rule says for individual, limit is RM1 mil minus outstanding RM loan liability (1 house exempted, i believe); no limit for those w/o loan.

4. buy foreign equities with foreign brokers.
.. harder to open account now with say Interactive Brokers, Ameritrade.
.. money to be TT'ed subject to same new BNm rule of RM1mil.

5. buy with DCI or dual currency inv accounts with local banks.
.. useful for those expecting to actually use the hard currency when time comes.
.. the usual FX risk for those who do not plan to use the foreign currency.
*
Dont need to go into details bro... sweat.gif

All the above comes under curency exchange controls and the government are on their toes to try to curb these.

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 30 2016, 04:14 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 30 2016, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 30 2016, 04:13 PM)
Dont need to go into details bro...  sweat.gif

All the above comes under curency exchange controls and the government are on their toes to try to curb these.
*
at this time, all that are valid and legal, public info according to BNM rules.

no reason not to share.

if rules change, we will have to comply.
cherroy
post Dec 30 2016, 04:44 PM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 30 2016, 03:46 PM)
Having learn from taikors here, trying to diversify to other currencies. Still learning.

Coupon rate of 4% is low. I was shown effective returns like 1 to 7.5% depending on maturity and current price. Minimum purchase is like 250k in S$, US$ or A$ though some bonds may be lower. UK pound is 100k.

If do Reverse REPO can borrow from bank to offset initial purchase MYR needed to put in.  biggrin.gif
*
No way good rating bond is more than 6% yield

Most I knew are in the region 4~5%.

Use DCI to convert first before purchase the bond, is another alternative.
AVFAN
post Dec 30 2016, 07:10 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 30 2016, 10:45 AM)
RMB should strengthen if they increase the basket of currencies, right ?
*
this may be a key driver for the RM in 2017.

this new bloomberg article has a lot of punch.

question is if they will be right.

i thought 7.30 would be bad.

give a thought how BNM will intervene against $ or let go if RMB does go to 7.50.

of course, "predictions" are just predictions.

QUOTE
"The yuan will continue to depreciate against the greenback and the pressure of capital outflow will likely persist in 2017," said Hong, who estimates a "fair" rate would be 7.5 per dollar, against 6.9468 in afternoon trading Friday.
...
"Adding a batch of emerging-market currencies into the basket will likely increase two-way volatility of the yuan’s fixing and the exchange rate," said Ken Cheung, Hong Kong-based Asia currency strategist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. "If the dollar extends its rally next year, particularly against the emerging-market currencies under Donald Trump’s presidency, the onshore and offshore yuan will come under heavier pressures.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...in-valuing-yuan

icemanfx
post Dec 30 2016, 08:27 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 07:10 PM)
this may be a key driver for the RM in 2017.

this new bloomberg article has a lot of punch.

question is if they will be right.

i thought 7.30 would be bad.

give a thought how BNM will intervene against $ or let go if RMB does go to 7.50.

of course, "predictions" are just predictions.
*
If RMB depreciate against usd, myr is almost certain to track.

limeuu
post Dec 30 2016, 09:36 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 30 2016, 04:11 PM)
Try looking at Bruneian Dollar. Its holding similar value with SGD and its near you.

whistling.gif
*
Eh.....Look at your map lah.... Brunei is just as far as Singapore from kuching....And harder to go, as no direct flight....By road, it's a 12hr journey....
limeuu
post Dec 30 2016, 10:11 PM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 30 2016, 03:46 PM)

Coupon rate of 4% is low. I was shown effective returns like 1 to 7.5% depending on maturity and current price. Minimum purchase is like 250k in S$, US$ or A$ though some bonds may be lower. UK pound is 100k.
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 03:51 PM)
there are no $, yen, SGD, AUD bonds that have such high yields like 7%... maybe junk/high risk bonds?
QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 30 2016, 04:44 PM)
No way good rating bond is more than 6% yield

Most I knew are in the region 4~5%.
you will not get high yields on high rating bonds...but semi "junk" bonds with BBB rating can give reasonable yields....coupons of 5-7+%....and can be from strong companies, eg HSBC etc...

however, their prices on the secondary market is of course pretty high, so the effective yield will likely be 3-5% only....

the msian investment banks normally have a minimal purchase of rm250k equivalent...not the foreign currency...

usd is still pretty "cheap" money....and can still be geared....so an option is to borrow to buy....the investment bank will allow 50-70% gearing.. interests is currently about mid 2+%....so by gearing 70%, and choosing carefully, it is possible to bump up the yield to 7-9%.....

i have usd bonds bought when usd was 3.2....coupon 7.5%, bought at 4% premium, geared 70% hence yielding 11%....yields will drop as the usd borrowing cost goes up....
AVFAN
post Dec 30 2016, 10:16 PM

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QUOTE(limeuu @ Dec 30 2016, 10:11 PM)
i have usd bonds bought when usd was 3.2....coupon 7.5%, bought at 4% premium, geared 70% hence yielding 11%....yields will drop as the usd borrowing cost goes up....
*
nice! thumbup.gif
limeuu
post Dec 30 2016, 10:20 PM

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it's callable in just over a year, so it will likely be called, as 7.5% is too high.....
TOMEI-R
post Dec 30 2016, 10:52 PM

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QUOTE(limeuu @ Dec 30 2016, 09:36 PM)
Eh.....Look at your map lah.... Brunei is just as far as Singapore from kuching....And harder to go, as no direct flight....By road, it's a 12hr journey....
*
Eh.. check your facts la. doh.gif You can fly from Kuching to Miri (direct flight by MAS, AA) and take a cab to Bandar Sri Begawan. Flight 1 hour, taxi ride 1 1/2 hours. If you dont know how to count, its about 2 1/2 hours not including customs etc. Its faster than driving from KL to Singapore and definately faster than flying to KL then to singapore.
limeuu
post Dec 30 2016, 10:56 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 30 2016, 10:52 PM)
Eh.. check your facts la.  doh.gif  You can fly from Kuching to Miri (direct flight by MAS, AA) and take a cab to Bandar Sri Begawan. Flight 1 hour, taxi ride 1 1/2 hours. If you dont know how to count, its about 2 1/2 hours not including customs etc. Its faster than driving from KL to Singapore and definately faster than flying to KL then to singapore.
*
read carefully what i wrote again...

and hello....there are 3-4 direct flights a day between kuching to singapore.....
TOMEI-R
post Dec 30 2016, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(limeuu @ Dec 30 2016, 10:56 PM)
read carefully what i wrote again...

and hello....there are 3-4 direct flights a day between kuching to singapore.....
*
Its just another option for the forummer to convert out his RM. If you wish to talk about transportation, do bring your points to the right thread. Dont derail this thread.
SUSAznRicy
post Dec 31 2016, 09:56 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 28 2016, 05:10 PM)
there may already be some indication today.

the weeks old 4.47x barrier's been broken, now at 4.4835.

can't see how it can stay put when yen, RMB, won, SGD are all sliding.

a crawling peg, it is.
*
I do notice early December, when RM weakened against USD, RM was also weakened against SGD.

now, the correlation pattern seems to stop.

Is it a good time to convert some SGD to MY now?
Or should I wait for trump sworn in on Jan 20?
bbgoat
post Dec 31 2016, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(limeuu @ Dec 30 2016, 10:11 PM)
you will not get high yields on high rating bonds...but semi "junk" bonds with BBB rating can give reasonable yields....coupons of 5-7+%....and can be from strong companies, eg HSBC etc...

however, their prices on the secondary market is of course pretty high, so the effective yield will likely be 3-5% only....

the msian investment banks normally have a minimal purchase of rm250k equivalent...not the foreign currency...

usd is still pretty "cheap" money....and can still be geared....so an option is to borrow to buy....the investment bank will allow 50-70% gearing.. interests is currently about mid 2+%....so by gearing 70%, and choosing carefully, it is possible to bump up the yield to 7-9%.....

i have usd bonds bought when usd was 3.2....coupon 7.5%, bought at 4% premium, geared 70% hence yielding 11%....yields will drop as the usd borrowing cost goes up....
*
Good to see your comments ! notworthy.gif notworthy.gif

As said before I am still learning on this. Only bond bought is the CIMB one recently with coupon rate of 5.5%.

The CIMB branch manager told me 250k of the foreign currencies for S$, USD, A$. UK pound is 100k. But is it RM250k equivalent ? hmm.gif Or depends on bank ?

Was told can do Reverse REPO, I guess is the same as the "gearing" that u mentioned. The borrowing cost is 2+%, except A$ is 3.23%. Pound 1.26%.

Those who bought Public Bank and CIMB bonds at 7.5% and 6.7% coupon rate during launch are the lucky ones ! rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 31 2016, 09:59 AM
AVFAN
post Dec 31 2016, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(AznRicy @ Dec 31 2016, 09:56 AM)
I do notice early December, when RM weakened against USD, RM was also weakened against SGD.
now, the correlation pattern seems to stop.
Is it a good time to convert some SGD to MY now?
Or should I wait for trump sworn in on Jan 20?
*
if RM is "pegged" to $ and MAS lets SGD slide, RM will be seen as gaining over SGD.
that is what i see since early dec.
however, last few days, $ weakened, RM with it, SGD gained over RM.
overall, last few weeks, moves have been marginal overall, not that significant.
specifically, doing SGD->RM now, i would say yes just as i would SGD->$ since RM is effectively crawl pegged to the $ at this time.
things may change in the coming weeks if $ make major moves and BNM decides to do something else.

QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 31 2016, 09:59 AM)
Those who bought Public Bank and CIMB bonds at 7.5% and 6.7% coupon rate during launch are the lucky ones ! rclxms.gif
*
do u know when those bonds were launched and at what price?

for bonds, better look at yield rather than coupon rates.

Ramjade
post Dec 31 2016, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 30 2016, 01:49 PM)
thank you. looks like none of this is for me as it's either you lose or either you win unless you move alot of cash. being in kuching is a handicap where we need to charter a flight just to go to Singapore
*
You can go on overseas holiday but can't take an economy flight down to Singapore? shocking.gif doh.gif

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 12:55 PM)
4. buy foreign equities with foreign brokers.
.. harder to open account now with say Interactive Brokers, Ameritrade.
.. money to be TT'ed subject to same new BNm rule of RM1mil.
*
Care to share why IB is hard to open now?

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Dec 31 2016, 10:32 AM
bbgoat
post Dec 31 2016, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 31 2016, 10:13 AM)

do u know when those bonds were launched and at what price?

for bonds, better look at yield rather than coupon rates.
*
Based on the printed sheet that I have, their first call dates are 2018/2019. So launch date 2013/2014 ??

Ya, thats why I said those who buy during launching time are the lucky ones. Current yield for these 2 are 4+% only. biggrin.gif
Avangelice
post Dec 31 2016, 10:51 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 31 2016, 10:30 AM)
You can go on overseas holiday but can't take an economy flight down to Singapore?  shocking.gif  doh.gif
Care to share why IB is hard to open now?
*
overseas holiday for 2017 October Italy trip is Invesment to get myself a wife. beats any portfolio or conversion lol
TOMEI-R
post Dec 31 2016, 01:01 PM

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QUOTE(AznRicy @ Dec 31 2016, 09:56 AM)
I do notice early December, when RM weakened against USD, RM was also weakened against SGD.

now, the correlation pattern seems to stop.

Is it a good time to convert some SGD to MY now?
Or should I wait for trump sworn in on Jan 20?
*
If I were you, I would only convert what is needed only. Definately the preference would be to keep SGD over RM.
AVFAN
post Dec 31 2016, 01:41 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 31 2016, 10:30 AM)
You can go on overseas holiday but can't take an economy flight down to Singapore?  shocking.gif  doh.gif
Care to share why IB is hard to open now?
*
u already read all that in the IB/foreign brokers thread.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 31 2016, 05:32 PM

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New Year's Eve

SGD - 3.085
USD - 4.458
AUD - 3.240.

Rm strengten a bit like last weekend.
Hansel
post Dec 31 2016, 08:51 PM

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By this evening,..

USD - 4.4441
AUD - 3.2199

RM might strengthen further tomorrow,... and then on Monday,.... before works starts on Tuesday !

Informationiac
post Dec 31 2016, 08:52 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 31 2016, 08:51 PM)
By this evening,..

USD - 4.4441
AUD - 3.2199

RM might strengthen further tomorrow,... and then on Monday,.... before works starts on Tuesday !
*
might
bbgoat
post Dec 31 2016, 10:26 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 31 2016, 08:51 PM)
By this evening,..

USD - 4.4441
AUD - 3.2199

RM might strengthen further tomorrow,... and then on Monday,.... before works starts on Tuesday !
*
Hope by Tues RM continue the up trend, not the down trend. I am trying to see which day of the week to buy USD, next week. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 1 2017, 12:58 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 31 2016, 08:51 PM)
By this evening,..

USD - 4.4441

*
where did u get this?

i only see 4.48600.



will this help or hurt the RM?

RON95 and diesel up 20 sen, RON97 up 15 sen for January 2017
TOMEI-R
post Jan 1 2017, 07:58 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 1 2017, 12:58 AM)



RON95 and diesel up 20 sen, RON97 up 15 sen for January 2017
*
Rm will strenghten because of this.. But it wilk definately hurt the people. Question is, good or bad?
Hansel
post Jan 1 2017, 10:17 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Jan 1 2017, 07:58 AM)
Rm will strenghten because of this..  But it wilk definately hurt the people. Question is,  good or bad?
*
I think so too,... but any rates from moneychangers yet this morning ??
bbgoat
post Jan 1 2017, 10:50 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 1 2017, 10:17 AM)
I think so too,... but any rates from moneychangers yet this morning ??
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Your opinion RM will strengthen next week ? I was trying to decide to buy USD on Tuesday or Thursday next week.
TOMEI-R
post Jan 1 2017, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 1 2017, 10:17 AM)
I think so too,... but any rates from moneychangers yet this morning ??
*
Just checked. No difference from yesterday. Effects should be after the holidays.
Hansel
post Jan 1 2017, 01:00 PM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Jan 1 2017, 10:50 AM)
Your opinion RM will strengthen next week ? I was trying to decide to buy USD on Tuesday or Thursday next week.
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Hmm,... not sure, bro,...but changing into the USD has a smaller chance of making mistakes, since BNM is 'subsidising' the USD now.
Hansel
post Jan 1 2017, 01:03 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Jan 1 2017, 10:52 AM)
Just checked. No difference from yesterday. Effects should be after the holidays.
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Appreciated yr cooperation to help chk, bro,... tq,...
Hansel
post Jan 1 2017, 01:17 PM

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Latest at moneychangers :-

USD : 4.4490
AUD : 3.2230

limeuu
post Jan 1 2017, 05:54 PM

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i believe there is no trading during the weekends, so there should be no movement till the market opens early tuesday morning in nz....
AVFAN
post Jan 1 2017, 07:57 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 1 2017, 01:17 PM)
Latest at moneychangers :-

USD : 4.4490
AUD : 3.2230
*
bro, are these rates buy or sell?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 1 2017, 08:50 PM
AIYH
post Jan 1 2017, 10:03 PM

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Not sure is this the right place to ask...

Is it wise to open a local FCA in USD to do TT or wire transfer for less than 1k USD to start in foreign investment or forex (provided the FCA account do not charge transaction fee, service fee, annual fee, but still incur cable charge etc...)

Still learning smile.gif

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