USD/MYR v5
USD/MYR v5
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Dec 7 2016, 05:51 PM
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#1
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6,614 posts Joined: Mar 2011 |
Hope that I can say in Jan 2017 that my holding back to buy USD is correct.
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Dec 8 2016, 07:02 PM
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#2
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 8 2016, 09:13 AM) Seeing the rate over this few days, especially after the BNM announcement last Friday, I have a feeling that 4.4x is the support level for RM. When calm returns, RM might appreciate back to 4.0x Agreed. My purchase history of USD, using TT:This has happened before last year. Panic selling makes RM went to ~4.5x. Then in the next few months, it appreciated back below 4.00 Aug 2015: 3.96 Jan 2016: 4.45 Aug 2016: 4.04 I hope Jan 2017 it stable at current level or best still, go to 4.0x. |
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Dec 8 2016, 07:24 PM
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#3
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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 8 2016, 07:14 PM) In April 2016, it even dipped lower than that !http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR&view=1Y |
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Dec 8 2016, 10:17 PM
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#4
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 8 2016, 09:02 PM) Ya, the 4.0x level NOT likely to reach. More likely is 4.3x the most. QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 8 2016, 09:07 PM) u sound very frus and desperate! Did I sound frus and desperate ? jan is < a month away. watch dec 14, fed hike imminent. i give 4.0x 5% chance, 4.3x 35%, 4.4x 60%. and i see BNM continuous intervention using reserves to keep it <4.50. Read my lips, I said earlier: I hope it stabilize at current level, by Jan 2017. This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 8 2016, 10:20 PM |
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Dec 9 2016, 02:47 PM
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#5
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 9 2016, 01:02 PM) Anyone can give prediction as they won't b penalize For me, when I need to buy, I just have to buy USD. Having said tat, it's up to reader to digest n make decision But now thinking of buying some foreign retail bonds. So may see when RM strengthen, go for some foreign retail bonds. Level ? Say 4.0 to 4.2, lets say. |
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Dec 10 2016, 10:13 AM
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#6
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 9 2016, 09:32 PM) I wud say it's a bit of Luck at d point of purchase since u need to buy regardless of the prevailing rates If the rate continues to go south as it did >1 week ago, I would buy immediately. But as it goes now it "stabilize" so I can wait till early Jan. I then will observe the movement and have window of 10 days or so to buy.Luck ? I don't think so. Just pick the rate that suits me at the time of buying. |
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Dec 10 2016, 05:58 PM
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#7
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 10 2016, 02:20 PM) RM likely to trade between 4.42 and 4.35 against USD next week Good news if it is to hit 4.35. But are they ever right ? Lets see. http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/12/195846/...t-usd-next-week I presume a lot of Ppl will q up to change if MYR were to hit 4.35 |
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Dec 11 2016, 08:21 PM
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#8
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Dec 19 2016, 12:39 PM
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#9
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Dec 21 2016, 05:34 PM
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#10
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In CB seeing RM (relationship manager haha) on foreign investment. RM said recently MYR other than USD, has strengthened against other currencies.
Asked about TT USD. Was told if sending to family members, the procedure is the same. But if send to third parties (other than family members), then more questions/form to fill up. This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 21 2016, 05:37 PM |
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Dec 21 2016, 07:37 PM
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#11
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Dec 22 2016, 10:30 AM
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#12
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Dec 29 2016, 07:09 PM
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#13
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 29 2016, 07:00 PM) that is surely one way to look at it. just like when RM was 4.0, all has been priced in. Agreed with taikors (few of u out there) that what Trump actually do (from what he says) will be a factor for the USD movement in 2017. Akan datang ! but i think besides trump major actions (with china, mexico, whatever) if any, a lot will hinge on how the market will view fed's "several hikes coming" talk. many don't believe it will do that in 2017, so, that is NOT fully priced in. it's a continuous game, very fluid. i look at BNM, bloomberg and XE.com data. do u not see it has "graduated" from 4.47x to 4.48x in the last few days? i also noticed that the korean won has dived a lot more while the RM stayed good. so, think about a winter holiday in seoul soon. My "D" day coming next week. Just hoping that RM holds ........................... This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 29 2016, 07:09 PM |
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Dec 29 2016, 10:34 PM
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#14
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 29 2016, 09:41 PM) Tq AV,.. bbgoat and Tomer fro your good insights and opinions,... I don't know what else to comment upon,... so much uncertainties now. I talked to CIMB branch manager on buying foreign retail bonds. Her opinion is USD too high, not a good idea to buy. SGD or A$ will be better choice. Their view is S$ may appreciate more vs RM in 2017. Think I'll just continue converting out my RM ! |
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Dec 30 2016, 02:47 PM
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#15
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 12:55 PM) this question, in both general and specific sense has been asked many times in this thread. How about buying foreign retail bonds (USD, S$, A$, pound etc) through local banks ?there is no single answer but a list. diff people use diff ways according to the amount, individual needs, risk appetite, cost and convenience, e.g. 1. buy foreign notes at money changer, keep under mattress. .. easiest, good rates, small amounts, not an inv, only FX risk. 2. buy foreign notes at money changer, put in bag and travel abroad to deposit. .. subject to FX/immigration laws, risk of theft n robbery. 3. buy foreign equities with local banks/brokers. .. easy to do, but high brokerage fees, potentially high spread. .. new BNM rule says for individual, limit is RM1 mil minus outstanding RM loan liability (1 house exempted, i believe); no limit for those w/o loan. 4. buy foreign equities with foreign brokers. .. harder to open account now with say Interactive Brokers, Ameritrade. .. money to be TT'ed subject to same new BNm rule of RM1mil. 5. buy with DCI or dual currency inv accounts with local banks. .. useful for those expecting to actually use the hard currency when time comes. .. the usual FX risk for those who do not plan to use the foreign currency. This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 30 2016, 02:49 PM |
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Dec 30 2016, 03:46 PM
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#16
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 03:19 PM) this one, i do not know. Having learn from taikors here, trying to diversify to other currencies. Still learning.but given current BNM rules, i would expect the same tight rules. everything must go thru RM. the ex rate spread will be most impt to know - for both buy/sell and coupon payments. will be bad if say, the total spread+other charges is 2% when the coupon rate is 4%. if u can share some details, terms & conditions of these bonds, can get more comments. Coupon rate of 4% is low. I was shown effective returns like 1 to 7.5% depending on maturity and current price. Minimum purchase is like 250k in S$, US$ or A$ though some bonds may be lower. UK pound is 100k. If do Reverse REPO can borrow from bank to offset initial purchase MYR needed to put in. This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 30 2016, 03:46 PM |
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Dec 30 2016, 03:54 PM
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#17
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 03:51 PM) there are no $, yen, SGD, AUD bonds that have such high yields like 7%... maybe junk/high risk bonds? It is an Aussie bond. Rating shown as Aa2. or are these "projected effective returns" in RM? if so, that mean the projection is saying RM will depr! Did u buy any of the foreign retail bond ? |
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Dec 31 2016, 09:59 AM
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#18
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QUOTE(limeuu @ Dec 30 2016, 10:11 PM) you will not get high yields on high rating bonds...but semi "junk" bonds with BBB rating can give reasonable yields....coupons of 5-7+%....and can be from strong companies, eg HSBC etc... Good to see your comments ! however, their prices on the secondary market is of course pretty high, so the effective yield will likely be 3-5% only.... the msian investment banks normally have a minimal purchase of rm250k equivalent...not the foreign currency... usd is still pretty "cheap" money....and can still be geared....so an option is to borrow to buy....the investment bank will allow 50-70% gearing.. interests is currently about mid 2+%....so by gearing 70%, and choosing carefully, it is possible to bump up the yield to 7-9%..... i have usd bonds bought when usd was 3.2....coupon 7.5%, bought at 4% premium, geared 70% hence yielding 11%....yields will drop as the usd borrowing cost goes up.... As said before I am still learning on this. Only bond bought is the CIMB one recently with coupon rate of 5.5%. The CIMB branch manager told me 250k of the foreign currencies for S$, USD, A$. UK pound is 100k. But is it RM250k equivalent ? Was told can do Reverse REPO, I guess is the same as the "gearing" that u mentioned. The borrowing cost is 2+%, except A$ is 3.23%. Pound 1.26%. Those who bought Public Bank and CIMB bonds at 7.5% and 6.7% coupon rate during launch are the lucky ones ! This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 31 2016, 09:59 AM |
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Dec 31 2016, 10:30 AM
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#19
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 31 2016, 10:13 AM) do u know when those bonds were launched and at what price? for bonds, better look at yield rather than coupon rates. Ya, thats why I said those who buy during launching time are the lucky ones. Current yield for these 2 are 4+% only. |
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Dec 31 2016, 10:26 PM
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#20
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