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 USD/MYR v5

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bbgoat
post Dec 7 2016, 05:51 PM

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Hope that I can say in Jan 2017 that my holding back to buy USD is correct. biggrin.gif
bbgoat
post Dec 8 2016, 07:02 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 8 2016, 09:13 AM)
Seeing the rate over this few days, especially after the BNM announcement last Friday, I have a feeling that 4.4x is the support level for RM. When calm returns, RM might appreciate back to 4.0x

This has happened before last year. Panic selling makes RM went to ~4.5x. Then in the next few months, it appreciated back below 4.00
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Agreed. My purchase history of USD, using TT:

Aug 2015: 3.96
Jan 2016: 4.45
Aug 2016: 4.04

I hope Jan 2017 it stable at current level or best still, go to 4.0x. thumbup.gif
bbgoat
post Dec 8 2016, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 8 2016, 07:14 PM)
wonder if can ever reach Aug 2015 rate back  rolleyes.gif  sweat.gif  unsure.gif  yawn.gif
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In April 2016, it even dipped lower than that !

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR&view=1Y
bbgoat
post Dec 8 2016, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 8 2016, 09:02 PM)
Unlikely to move so drastic unless exceptional events
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Ya, the 4.0x level NOT likely to reach. More likely is 4.3x the most. biggrin.gif

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 8 2016, 09:07 PM)
u sound very frus and desperate!  tongue.gif

jan is < a month away.

watch dec 14, fed hike imminent.

i give 4.0x 5% chance, 4.3x 35%, 4.4x 60%.

and i see BNM continuous intervention using reserves to keep it <4.50.
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Did I sound frus and desperate ? laugh.gif

Read my lips, I said earlier: I hope it stabilize at current level, by Jan 2017. brows.gif

This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 8 2016, 10:20 PM
bbgoat
post Dec 9 2016, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 9 2016, 01:02 PM)
Anyone can give prediction as they won't b penalize
Having said tat, it's up to reader to digest n make decision
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For me, when I need to buy, I just have to buy USD.

But now thinking of buying some foreign retail bonds. So may see when RM strengthen, go for some foreign retail bonds. Level ? Say 4.0 to 4.2, lets say. biggrin.gif
bbgoat
post Dec 10 2016, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 9 2016, 09:32 PM)
I wud say it's a bit of Luck at d point of purchase since u need to buy regardless of the prevailing rates
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If the rate continues to go south as it did >1 week ago, I would buy immediately. But as it goes now it "stabilize" so I can wait till early Jan. I then will observe the movement and have window of 10 days or so to buy.

Luck ? I don't think so. Just pick the rate that suits me at the time of buying. biggrin.gif
bbgoat
post Dec 10 2016, 05:58 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 10 2016, 02:20 PM)
RM likely to trade between 4.42 and 4.35 against USD next week
http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/12/195846/...t-usd-next-week

I presume a lot of Ppl will q up to change if MYR were to hit 4.35
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Good news if it is to hit 4.35. But are they ever right ? Lets see. biggrin.gif
bbgoat
post Dec 11 2016, 08:21 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 9 2016, 11:18 PM)
Hahaha...
U still remember him/her
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Last time, we refer to "her". Now not sure anymore ! mega_shok.gif brows.gif

That person has set up for people to believe him/her. Migrate to Australia, USD trading 6 digit gain etc etc. doh.gif

This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 11 2016, 08:27 PM
bbgoat
post Dec 19 2016, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 19 2016, 11:03 AM)
$ index down to 102.6x, profit taking.

RM still just under 4.48.

banks should be selling USD at >4.50 now.

money changer...?
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I checked CB TT rate, 4.5115. sweat.gif Highest so far for this year. sad.gif

Well, life still goes on. biggrin.gif
bbgoat
post Dec 21 2016, 05:34 PM

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In CB seeing RM (relationship manager haha) on foreign investment. RM said recently MYR other than USD, has strengthened against other currencies.

Asked about TT USD. Was told if sending to family members, the procedure is the same. But if send to third parties (other than family members), then more questions/form to fill up. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 21 2016, 05:37 PM
bbgoat
post Dec 21 2016, 07:37 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 21 2016, 07:27 PM)
Did the RM explain why the strengthening in tandem with usd? tongue.gif
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Nope ! laugh.gif

I guess you guys has given enough expert opinion on this. Did not ask any further. She was trying to sell me USD foreign retail bonds. laugh.gif
bbgoat
post Dec 22 2016, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 22 2016, 10:23 AM)
I don't think one needs to become an "expert" to know USD is super strong now...  laugh.gif
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biggrin.gif

Looks like BNM still trying to control RM vs USD. I am hoping that the rate remains around this level until early Jan. If 4.5 breaks .......... doh.gif
bbgoat
post Dec 29 2016, 07:09 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 29 2016, 07:00 PM)
that is surely one way to look at it. just like when RM was 4.0, all has been priced in. tongue.gif

but i think besides trump major actions (with china, mexico, whatever) if any, a lot will hinge on how the market will view fed's "several hikes coming" talk. many don't believe it will do that in 2017, so, that is NOT fully priced in. it's a continuous game, very fluid.
i look at BNM, bloomberg and XE.com data.

do u not see it has "graduated" from 4.47x to 4.48x in the last few days?

i also noticed that the korean won has dived a lot more while the RM stayed good.

so, think about a winter holiday in seoul soon. laugh.gif
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Agreed with taikors (few of u out there) that what Trump actually do (from what he says) will be a factor for the USD movement in 2017. Akan datang ! tongue.gif

My "D" day coming next week. Just hoping that RM holds ........................... bruce.gif

This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 29 2016, 07:09 PM
bbgoat
post Dec 29 2016, 10:34 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 29 2016, 09:41 PM)
Tq AV,.. bbgoat and Tomer fro your good insights and opinions,... I don't know what else to comment upon,... so much uncertainties now.

Think I'll just continue converting out my RM !
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I talked to CIMB branch manager on buying foreign retail bonds. Her opinion is USD too high, not a good idea to buy. SGD or A$ will be better choice. Their view is S$ may appreciate more vs RM in 2017. biggrin.gif
bbgoat
post Dec 30 2016, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 12:55 PM)
this question, in both general and specific sense has been asked many times in this thread.

there is no single answer but a list. diff people use diff ways according to the amount, individual needs, risk appetite, cost and convenience, e.g.

1. buy foreign notes at money changer, keep under mattress.
.. easiest, good rates, small amounts, not an inv, only FX risk.

2. buy foreign notes at money changer, put in bag and travel abroad to deposit.
.. subject to FX/immigration laws, risk of theft n robbery.

3. buy foreign equities with local banks/brokers.
.. easy to do, but high brokerage fees, potentially high spread.
.. new BNM rule says for individual, limit is RM1 mil minus outstanding RM loan liability (1 house exempted, i believe); no limit for those w/o loan.

4. buy foreign equities with foreign brokers.
.. harder to open account now with say Interactive Brokers, Ameritrade.
.. money to be TT'ed subject to same new BNm rule of RM1mil.

5. buy with DCI or dual currency inv accounts with local banks.
.. useful for those expecting to actually use the hard currency when time comes.
.. the usual FX risk for those who do not plan to use the foreign currency.
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How about buying foreign retail bonds (USD, S$, A$, pound etc) through local banks ?

This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 30 2016, 02:49 PM
bbgoat
post Dec 30 2016, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 03:19 PM)
this one, i do not know.

but given current BNM rules, i would expect the same tight rules.
everything must go thru RM.
the ex rate spread will be most impt to know - for both buy/sell and coupon payments.
will be bad if say, the total spread+other charges is 2% when the coupon rate is 4%.

if u can share some details, terms & conditions of these bonds, can get more comments.
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Having learn from taikors here, trying to diversify to other currencies. Still learning.

Coupon rate of 4% is low. I was shown effective returns like 1 to 7.5% depending on maturity and current price. Minimum purchase is like 250k in S$, US$ or A$ though some bonds may be lower. UK pound is 100k.

If do Reverse REPO can borrow from bank to offset initial purchase MYR needed to put in. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 30 2016, 03:46 PM
bbgoat
post Dec 30 2016, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 30 2016, 03:51 PM)
there are no $, yen, SGD, AUD bonds that have such high yields like 7%... maybe junk/high risk bonds?

or are these "projected effective returns" in RM?

if so, that mean the projection is saying RM will depr! biggrin.gif
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It is an Aussie bond. Rating shown as Aa2. tongue.gif

Did u buy any of the foreign retail bond ?
bbgoat
post Dec 31 2016, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(limeuu @ Dec 30 2016, 10:11 PM)
you will not get high yields on high rating bonds...but semi "junk" bonds with BBB rating can give reasonable yields....coupons of 5-7+%....and can be from strong companies, eg HSBC etc...

however, their prices on the secondary market is of course pretty high, so the effective yield will likely be 3-5% only....

the msian investment banks normally have a minimal purchase of rm250k equivalent...not the foreign currency...

usd is still pretty "cheap" money....and can still be geared....so an option is to borrow to buy....the investment bank will allow 50-70% gearing.. interests is currently about mid 2+%....so by gearing 70%, and choosing carefully, it is possible to bump up the yield to 7-9%.....

i have usd bonds bought when usd was 3.2....coupon 7.5%, bought at 4% premium, geared 70% hence yielding 11%....yields will drop as the usd borrowing cost goes up....
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Good to see your comments ! notworthy.gif notworthy.gif

As said before I am still learning on this. Only bond bought is the CIMB one recently with coupon rate of 5.5%.

The CIMB branch manager told me 250k of the foreign currencies for S$, USD, A$. UK pound is 100k. But is it RM250k equivalent ? hmm.gif Or depends on bank ?

Was told can do Reverse REPO, I guess is the same as the "gearing" that u mentioned. The borrowing cost is 2+%, except A$ is 3.23%. Pound 1.26%.

Those who bought Public Bank and CIMB bonds at 7.5% and 6.7% coupon rate during launch are the lucky ones ! rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 31 2016, 09:59 AM
bbgoat
post Dec 31 2016, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 31 2016, 10:13 AM)

do u know when those bonds were launched and at what price?

for bonds, better look at yield rather than coupon rates.
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Based on the printed sheet that I have, their first call dates are 2018/2019. So launch date 2013/2014 ??

Ya, thats why I said those who buy during launching time are the lucky ones. Current yield for these 2 are 4+% only. biggrin.gif
bbgoat
post Dec 31 2016, 10:26 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 31 2016, 08:51 PM)
By this evening,..

USD - 4.4441
AUD - 3.2199

RM might strengthen further tomorrow,... and then on Monday,.... before works starts on Tuesday !
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Hope by Tues RM continue the up trend, not the down trend. I am trying to see which day of the week to buy USD, next week. biggrin.gif

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