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 USD/MYR v5

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spiderman17
post Dec 8 2016, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 8 2016, 09:09 AM)
AVFAN and me had discussed before. I was ~20% 2 years ago. Now, not much improvement I think around ~30% only. Mainly because I have illiquid assets in ongoing business.

Not as much as I wish to. But I plan to achieve at least 50%-80% if possible. Leave some in malaysia as I think this is still the best country to live in
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 8 2016, 09:17 AM)
this kind of comment will be frowned upon by the power ones.
they only want rosy politically correct talk.
talk some more, he may get harassed/arrested.
and that's precisely the issues - non transparency, confidence.
me, about 40%, target  is 50%.
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QUOTE(limeuu @ Dec 8 2016, 12:47 PM)
Half....and comfortable with that level....still need to live and spend here, not migrating....

Going forward, if opportunities arise (ie periods of strong myr), will move more out....just need to keep enough for local spending....rest is cheap overseas holiday money....lol
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I started moving from 0% in 2012 to almost 80%. Exclusively USD exposure (no sgd, aud etc).
I think I went overboard since I'm planning to retire here. Now scaling back, targeting 50% max, and may also diversify out from usd.


spiderman17
post Dec 8 2016, 06:37 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Dec 8 2016, 03:43 PM)
I think the absolute amount counts as well though obviously no one is going into details about their net worth here. What I mean is assuming your net worth is 100k and you have 100% invested in foreign assets compared to a person with 10mil net worth with 20% invested in foreign assets, then of course the person with 2mil invested overseas can say that what they have overseas is quite significant and can even allow him or his family to survive on foreign assets alone for quite sometime compared to the person with 100k overseas. I understand that to compare across individuals, percentage is the only metric suitable but in my opinion absolute amount is important too. The higher one's net worth especially if one has multiple properties, I think the lower one's foreign assets % is in practice. In short, I don't think there are many rich people with more than 30% of their net worth invested in foreign assets not counting those who has migrated or has plans to migrate or has dual residence.
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Yes, absolute amount is important...I'm just a small timer here. So it's easy for me to quickly shift my distribution percentages.
Besides, it's 100% liquid. I have very negligible non-liquid assets, so I don't consider them at all in weighing my exposure.
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spiderman17
post Dec 12 2016, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 11 2016, 11:25 PM)
For reasons there are only 3% of adults in the kangkong land have over us$100k net worth.
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shocking.gif
where do you get this info from? can share?

spiderman17
post Dec 13 2016, 12:20 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 12 2016, 12:30 PM)
not really, just that it is usually flat-flat on holidays.

actually, at this time, there are things we don't know...

is BNM still intervening, $ sold or bought?
are the exporters complying?
are foreigners still selling mgs and bursa? (us 10 yr yield 2.493% today).

meanwhile, BNM is patting itself on the back...
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2091779
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Compliance is not by choice. Once the money comes into their account, the bank is mandated to convert 75% into myr. So, yes, the exporters are already complying.
spiderman17
post Dec 13 2016, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 13 2016, 09:23 AM)
The ruling is the exporter must bring back the export proceeds into the country, ie repatriate back to a licenced Msian onshore bank, within three months after the transaction. Hence, the exporter can wait and wait till the RM strengthens before TT'ing out from the overseas acct where the fund is parked.

Or,... the exporter may give a 6-month credit term to the overseas customer, then the overseas customer pays in 6 months time into the overseas bank acct., and the 6-month 'bringing-back period' will be for another 6-months from thereon. All in,.. one year to bring back and convert into the RM,....
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if that's the existing term, then ok. else, businesses won't go lengthening payment terms just for the sake of delaying fund return.
cash cycle is much much more important than forex rate. every single turn generate gross-margin-%

QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 13 2016, 09:34 AM)
What if I as an exporter decided to have offshore account in SG/UK/HK and ask my clients to bank in the money into those account. That way, I don't need to convert my earnings into RM right? Just a thought  hmm.gif
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you still have an account, that needs to be audited annually and submitted to ssm as long as you're malaysia-registered business.

QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 13 2016, 10:37 AM)
Knowing our govt,... 3 or 6 months later,...everybody will forget abt it, people would have changed, documents missing, hard disk crashed,...  smile.gif

Unless they happen to target one or two lar,... see who 'gets the lottery',... BNM also wants to have an easier life,....
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bnm don't need to check. the external auditors will have to verify the cash flow.
some local bank(s) have already taken the defensive measure of requiring invoice to be submitted as supporting document for returning fund exceeding xxx amount.
previously for amla purpose...now can use for this as well.
spiderman17
post Dec 18 2016, 04:47 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 18 2016, 01:30 AM)
the bigger question is with this 75% thingy, who will put big money into exports biz?
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I believe businessman made most money from the trade margin. The Forex gain from sitting on usd pile is just bonus. Nobody likes their bonus being taken away, but that doesn't mean they will just quit/walkaway from their money-making trades.

spiderman17
post Dec 19 2016, 12:02 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 18 2016, 10:12 AM)
Hmm,... I tend to disagree somewhat,.. for myself, even though I am making a lot from the margin, but if what I made MUST BE converted into something that will lose its value slowly, I will still hesitate.
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i guess that's what allow the market to work...people on opposing side of view complementing each other's need
and may we both prosper from the resulting "trade" thumbup.gif
our view is inherently biased by our own position/action.
as long as we are aware of this bias, all will be fine.

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 18 2016, 11:38 AM)
the actual impact of that 75% thingy has yet to be seen.

however, the comments from topglove already give a clue - it will stifle export industries' growth, i.e. new investments for export biz will think very hard about whether to go ahead or not.
what sectors are we talking about when we say "export biz" or anything that earn FX?

that should be largely manufacturing.

this new report says mfg investment approved (not actual) is down by 39%.

not much details about foreign or domestic; the nos. are for jan-sep, before the trump win, before the 75% thingy.

i doubt the 75% thingy is going to help the RM overall over time.
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do note that topglove's point of view is based on the rubber industry ownership - all his credible competitors are from malaysia.
what are his usd cost% and what will his approved hedging% be ? i see the their comment as leading to something.
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spiderman17
post Jan 7 2017, 12:26 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 7 2017, 12:12 PM)
Cashless vs real cash are actually the same in the financial system and banking.
Real hard cold cash just means extra process of printing it.
Just like E-statement, E-invoice, E-ABC, just less one process of printing it, doesn't mean they are not existing or not real.
You have 10,000 in account (cashless), if you want hard real cold cash, bank just debit your account (your 10,000 no more), then ask BNM to supply them 10,000 cash note.

Cashless /= anyone can simply type a number, nor bank can simply create a number in the account.

The one can create money out of thin air (USD) is Fed, Euro (ECB) and for other countries currency, it is respective central bank, but other central banks (other that major currencies in the world) do not have the luxury of like USD that can simply print without financial/exchange repercussion.

It is how fiat money system works and agreed and adopted by everyone. Nothing relate to whatever imaginary scam, those saying it is scam because they don't understand how financial, monetory system works.
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what i understand is that bank do create money, or the illusion of it, through lending. this is of course governed by central lank, controlling the reserve requirement.
i put rm100 in bank. he lends out 80 to bizA. bizA pay out in total 80(expense, profit to owner etc), whch eventually go to bank. then bank lend out 0.8*80....and the cycle flow
given that it's less than 1(100%), the exponential series will hit asymptotic value which control the total money circulating in market. It's much larger than 100 initial money.
isn't that how srr works in adjusting inflation?
spiderman17
post Jan 12 2017, 09:11 AM

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Bnm objective was to reduce volatility, not to strengthen the myr. Why the surprise?
The local exchange is now determined based on onshore transaction. Usd index fall, but how many of you are selling usd buying myr right now onshore? Most people will likely wait and see...so the rate also wait ..
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spiderman17
post Apr 21 2017, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Apr 21 2017, 12:56 PM)
Ramjade is too pre-occupied with his "opening a bank account in Sg" until every time a new question comes out, he is blinded with his own situation and requirement.

Contrary to what Ram said, of course you can open a foreign currency bank account in malaysia. You can send, receive, convert your forex with this account in malaysia

What Ramjade meant was you cannot deposit foreign cash notes into this account. He is a bit sore with this restriction as he compares to the local money changer rates vs the bank board rate  biggrin.gif

So, go ahead and open a USD account with maybank. And bring back your funds in USD from overseas. But just remember if you want to cash it out in malaysia bank, the only choice is convert the USD to RM. Along with that conversion, you get bad conversion rate. Also don't forget there is the usual bank charges for receiving and sending funds.

After bring back, if you keep it in USD, you can always resend it out overseas. Or transfer your US$ into your local trading platform and buy US shares.

Hope Ramjade didn't confuse you too much  biggrin.gif
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Generally true, but got exceptions...
If your amount is large enough(min rm20k, rm30k rm50k etc, differs by bank), you can ask for special rate or deal direct with treasury dept of bank and get rather good rate. May not beat Midvalley, but if you're not in klang valley, it's as good or better than your neighbourhood money changer.
During the "wild swing" of Nov-Dec16, it is possible to get better rate from bank(compared to money changer) if you watch the live forex rate closely.
Also, early January this year, the bank give superior rate than money changer...I don't know why.
The above applies for selling usd, buying myr. I don't know whether buying usd will have same experience.
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spiderman17
post Apr 21 2017, 10:31 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Apr 21 2017, 08:14 PM)
In my experience, those RM20k-RM50k is too small for bank to give you good rates. 6 figures will be better, and 7 figures is close to XE quoted rate with bank's small spread
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You're way more experienced than i am; i never tried 7figures. Don't have such huge fund.
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20k-50k is minimum to ask for better rates. Less than that is strictly board rate.
spiderman17
post Dec 4 2017, 06:41 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 4 2017, 05:54 PM)
Did anyone noticed that money changers will very quickly run "out of stocks" very early. They must be holding back their stash as MYR is going up.
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i presumed you meant they run out of foreign currency.
why would they want to keep their stash? they'd lose more isn't it?

maybe they really run out of stock, and not willing to replenish due to strengthening MYR ?

spiderman17
post Jan 5 2018, 01:10 PM

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So, those analysts that predicted USD-MYR at 4.0 by end of 2017 are spot on. Kudos.

 

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