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 USD/MYR v5

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AVFAN
post Dec 7 2016, 09:05 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 7 2016, 08:39 PM)
If RM depreciate some more? They already earned automatically. Many hope that RM will depreciate some more (their thinking) so that they can benefit from more RM.
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Benefit is not the right word.

How to benefit when more rm is needed to buy the same thing?

It is about protection of wealth, not benefit.

Of course, no protection or hedging, u lose.


AVFAN
post Dec 7 2016, 11:20 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 7 2016, 09:03 PM)
Good movements against the USD today, despite the reduced foreign reserves ann't.. Probably analysts expected the drop will be more, but instead, the drop was only 1.9Bil USD ONLY,...

So,... MYR strengthened,.. I recalled this afternoon, it weakened a bit back to 4.43,...then turned around again.

Added : https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MYR%3DX&t=1d
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http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...pt9b-at-nov-30/

there is no mention of what caused the 1.9b decline - trade balance or RM intervention or both or ??

so, it is hard to tell if the RM is strengthening on its own or due to intervention or due to new measures.

until that info is available, i am inclined to think that if it hovers tightly 4.43-4.45, there is continuous intervention.


AVFAN
post Dec 7 2016, 11:38 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 7 2016, 11:22 PM)
Agree with that. More towards protection of one's wealth and interest. How can there be much benefit when most of our wealth/ interest is here and we are earning this currency.
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that's the whole point of this thread since 2 years ago - protect yr hard earned savings, don't just watch it decay in times like these.

it is utterly miserable for low-mid wage earners and pensioners/retirees counting on their meager savings and epf funds for kids' education, medical expense and retirement only to meet with a 30% cut in purchasing power in a short 2 years.

and all they get is "all external, can't control, not too bad".
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 12:02 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 7 2016, 11:47 PM)
Some minister said you are not affected if you dont go overseas or buy imported stuff. whistling.gif

Those who realize our currency is turning into 'duit pisang' ought to take measures to limit their losses. Worst of all, we cant rely just on property now to protect our interests as even the property market is facing some very turbulent times.
Yes we can say every country is having hard times right now, but how come that it seems our Rm is the one hit the worst?
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wait a few months, we'll see how prices of petrol, food and drinks will change.

i am actually not so concerned about 4.5 or 4.4 at this time. more concerned with what is anyone doing to improve the fundamentals to help appr the rm besides insisting all is good, just external and "speculators" fault. is the budget deficit systematically reduced, debts lowered, productivity growing, significant investments now made to increase fx income? do we see great new ventures in agriculture, manufacturing or high tech? or is it just more debt, consume and keep building towers - all with zero fx income? what to expect in 1, 2, 5 years time?

property.. so much already said. property cycles are very long...
if the big slump comes, it will take a good few years to recover.
i am one of the fortunate ones to ride it up and got off early enough. tongue.gif

AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 01:17 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 8 2016, 12:48 AM)
Good points above,...but how to mediate ? Convert now and not wait anymore because the RM does not really have any sign that will help it ??

Because if we don't convert now, chances are the value will drop more moving forward,...
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see, that is what i'm thinking - what will make it appr? other than $ falling?

and then u read this kind of thing from dunno who... biggrin.gif
QUOTE
Meanwhile, Ramesh said moving forward, the ringgit was expected to remain at the current level in the short term, before bouncing back to about RM4 per US dollar in the first half of 2017.

“I strongly believe that our exports will improve and oil prices are going to remain at around US$60-US$65 per barrel in the first half of next year, in line with the recovery in other commodity prices.

“A lot of foreign investment is expected to come in the future, particularly due to the lower ringgit,” he said. - Bernama
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...it-unnecessary/

why is it that when a currency goes to the dogs, "A lot of foreign investment is expected to come."?! a lot of foreign $ going to turkey, venezuela, egypt, nigeria, argentina too? or getting dumped harder?

and oil price will magically shoot up from 50 to 65 within 6 months? please...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 8 2016, 01:27 AM
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 8 2016, 08:49 AM)
Jomo: Loss of confidence in government a key dampener of ringgit performance
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/j...git-performance

The writing is on the wall
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this kind of comment will be frowned upon by the power ones.
they only want rosy politically correct talk.
talk some more, he may get harassed/arrested.
and that's precisely the issues - non transparency, confidence.

QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 8 2016, 08:41 AM)
i know i asked this before...........

while those who invested outside heavily can pat theirselves on the back and be smug.....think of the rest who have not.

HOW much do you hedge your net worth in foreign assets  IF you are NOT MIGRATING?
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 8 2016, 09:09 AM)
AVFAN and me had discussed before. I was ~20% 2 years ago. Now, not much improvement I think around ~30% only. Mainly because I have illiquid assets in ongoing business.

Not as much as I wish to. But I plan to achieve at least 50%-80% if possible. Leave some in malaysia as I think this is still the best country to live in
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me, about 40%, target is 50%.
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 8 2016, 09:13 AM)
Seeing the rate over this few days, especially after the BNM announcement last Friday, I have a feeling that 4.4x is the support level for RM. When calm returns, RM might appreciate back to 4.0x

This has happened before last year. Panic selling makes RM went to ~4.5x. Then in the next few months, it appreciated back below 4.00
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bouncing within a range is very normal.

i think we need to watch a couple of weeks more to see a trend, if any.

.. $ index declined to 100.2x; last few days, $ softened against all major currencies.

.. SGD/RM still at 3.13; AUD/RM 3.32.

.. no info on whether bnm is still intervening or not.




AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 12:57 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 8 2016, 12:46 PM)
Yes, the market rates is hovering these 2 weeks around SDG $1 to Rm3.12-RM3.13 +-. Any hopes for it to bounce back up again?
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the way i look at it...

both sg and msia main trading partners are with each other and china, USA.

Given SG's way of managing the currency and not int rates like most countries, i would expect it to do what it has always done - follow the stronger $ more closely to keep import bills manageable as it imports everything it consumes, and can afford to do so with its vast fx reserves. But since it has strong trade links to Msia and china too, it cannot allow the SGD to rise too much if the RM and RMB falls against $.

So, it will be how you access the two biggies - USA and china, i.e. how the $ and RMB will play out.

in the near term, i doubt RM will rise against SGD with any significance.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 8 2016, 01:05 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(celicaizpower @ Dec 8 2016, 12:55 PM)
8 December 2016:
100 Thai Baht equals 12.45 Malaysian Ringgit...
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long time ago, rm1 = baht 11
2014 rm1 = baht 10
2016 rm1 = baht 8

ya, nothing wrong, only usd strong, other currencies also falling bad, all is speculators fault.
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 05:40 PM

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$ index <100, depr against all major currencies.

mayb due to russian attempts to dedollarize its financial system.

if rm is to gain, now is the time.
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 08:53 PM

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QUOTE(kit2 @ Dec 8 2016, 08:51 PM)
now that china is bailing out 1mdb, any chance of myr strengthening? what do you all think?
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before u ask others, pls say what YOU think first.
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 09:07 PM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 8 2016, 07:02 PM)
Agreed. My purchase history of USD, using TT:

Aug 2015: 3.96
Jan 2016: 4.45
Aug 2016: 4.04

I hope Jan 2017 it stable at current level or best still, go to 4.0x.  thumbup.gif
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u sound very frus and desperate! tongue.gif

jan is < a month away.

watch dec 14, fed hike imminent.

i give 4.0x 5% chance, 4.3x 35%, 4.4x 60%.

and i see BNM continuous intervention using reserves to keep it <4.50.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 8 2016, 09:09 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 9 2016, 10:18 AM

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those still insisting "it's just the $" better revise their arithmetic skills.


QUOTE
Using BNM rates (from the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market in Kuala Lumpur at 11.30am) and comparing the exchange rates on 1 November (before the US presidential elections) and 1 December, against the three countries, the results are not satisfactory. The Chinese Yuan and Thai Baht strengthened about 5% and Singapore Dollar (SGD) about 4% against RM.

If we go back further to 2 January 2013, the Yuan, Baht and SGD have strengthened 33%, 26% and 25% respectively against RM.

You can say the time when the RM crashed to as low as RM4.725 to the USD on 7 January 1998 is the worst. Let us be wary that we are still in the middle of a whirlpool.

Let us now look at the real effective exchange rate (REER). It is the weighted average of a country’s currency relative to an index or basket of other major currencies, adjusted for the effects of inflation. The World Bank website on REER index (taking year 2010 = 100) shows that in 2015, RM slid to around 92 while Yuan and SGD increased to 131 and 111 respectively. There were no figures for Baht. USD itself increased to around 114. For 2016, obviously the position will not be better for RM.
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/state-of...on-to-najib-co/



AVFAN
post Dec 9 2016, 10:28 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 9 2016, 10:22 AM)
Good opinions,...I think I will start to convertout lar,... really nothing much to say anymore, and there is really nothing to help MYR in the near future,...

Asset prices overseas are dropping,... need to prepare my warchest.

Weak MYR also weak-lar,... what to do ???

We were born in Msia,... that's the thing to blame.
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well, should feel fortunate if u can still fight, convert, prepare.

young and old, many will be devastated:

QUOTE
Survey shows millions of Malaysians in dire straits with poor financial management behaviour and little savings and mounting debts.
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...no-way-to-live/
THE COMING RECESSION WILL BITE VERY DEEP: ONLY 6% OF M’SIANS CAN MAINTAIN THEIR LIFESTYLE FOR 6 MONTHS AFTER JOB LOSS – SURVEY
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/the-comi...ob-loss-survey/

AVFAN
post Dec 9 2016, 10:58 AM

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if rm is to strengthen, better it do so soon!

becos china inflation is rising again.

tonnes of china imports everyday.

add oil price +15% since nov 30, expect petrol price to jump 25-30 sen a liter on jan 1.

brace for heft prices increase very soon.

QUOTE
China Factory Prices Jump 3.3%, Lifting Global Inflation Outlook
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...flation-outlook

AVFAN
post Dec 9 2016, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 9 2016, 03:42 PM)
well I think we could conclude it's would be around 4.35 - 4.45 range as the middle ground  dry.gif
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for now, yes.

things may change quickly in 2017.

QUOTE(mujinkun @ Dec 9 2016, 03:42 PM)
Actual inflation would be near 10% if official is 3%...
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yes...

official is for rural/villages only.

urban/suburban, take official x 3.
AVFAN
post Dec 9 2016, 07:48 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Dec 9 2016, 05:38 PM)
Sometimes when I hear "have strong fundamentals",  I find it kind of  kind of vague, how strong is strong and how weak is weak. Strong fundamentals but low reserve is it still call strong fundamentals?
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they may actually mean a strong "cash is king" regime supported a majority of MP's unlike in south korea where the MP's just threw out the president for corruption.

QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 9 2016, 06:41 PM)
They think the rakyat are morons.
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they will be very disappointed if that is not the case after decades of hard work and investment.

QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Dec 9 2016, 07:23 PM)
"not too bad"... since usa and japan can only aim for 1.5%.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 9 2016, 08:24 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 9 2016, 11:33 PM

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fresh reads:

QUOTE
Malaysian ringgit rout eases up
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government...t-rout-eases-up

China's Capital-Control Crackdown 'Particularly Worrying' for Businesses, Says George Magnus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...s-george-magnus

AVFAN
post Dec 10 2016, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 9 2016, 11:36 PM)
Lets monitor whether MYR can stabilize ard 4.40+/- until end of tis mth as trader/investor r awaiting @ sideline to cash out the moment it start to appreciate
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as of last night, $ resumed strength, index at 101.60

$ gained against euro, yen, sgd.

but $/RM flat at 4.42... bnm continuous intervention?

opec-non opec meeting today is the one to watch.

a significant outcome will have impact on oil price and hence the $.

next week, incl fed dec 14 will be key to watch currency movements.
AVFAN
post Dec 10 2016, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 10 2016, 02:23 PM)
M surprise to note tat M'sia was invited to attend non OPEC meeting
Not sure whether M'sia will join d alliance to cut or maintain status quo  hmm.gif
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So far, only five of the 14 oil-producing countries invited by Opec have confirmed their attendance: Russia, Oman, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Mexico.

https://www.ft.com/content/03971da4-be02-11...45-b8b81dd5d080

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 10 2016, 03:53 PM

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