By the way, received 2 tickets for Special Screening of Star Wars The Force Awakens from CB for Dec 22nd in Gurney Plaza. Did you receive it ?

It is not PB centre (in Klang Valley) ?

Penang OCBC PB centre leng lui is better. This has always been an argument point with gsc.

Saying return of 5.5% is guaranteed is a BIG lie. Ask them to show you in B & W. It would NOT be there ! Principal guaranteed, yes, that is not an issue if hold until maturity.

I bought one bond fund which matured this Dec, CB is the bank agent. Now received a letter from both parties giving reasons why they cannot achieve the 5% yield set out 3 yrs ago. The return fluctuate between 3.55% to 4% only !

The Citigold leng lui RM who sold me this kind of very sure at the time I was sold ! Anyway she has left already.

This post has been edited by bbgoat: Dec 17 2015, 07:28 PM

Since fed is committed to continue raising the rates gradually, with 3 to 4 more 25 basis point raise.. that will sum up to 0.75 to 1 percent.

So eventually, 6% in 2016 might not be fairy tale. Maybe not so fast la, if i were to side bet with you on 6% FD offering, it would be around oct to nov 2016.

Btw, i hope i am unker also, haha.. but it might sounds a bit BS to you when i tell u i am not even 30...

dun bull la, unker!

anyway in 2016 6% not likely. lets see by dec 2016. mark my word, unker bones.

at least yr principal is intact, plus some FD level of returns

Previously it took almost a year for our banks to increase the rates from 4.0-4.2 to now 4.4-4.6%. I will be happy if we can get 5% by mid 2016.

I will wait for 5% or smell near 5% next year.

Tats why i say u will think i bs you.. but i betul belum even 30..

Ok. We sidebet 6%

If 2016 got 6%, then how ? Haha

if 2016 got 6%, let you laff all the way to makan nasi kari.

If you are expecting 5% return and end up getting lower than FD promo returns, will you be happy ?

Central bank in every country manages the economy through monetary policy to control the money supply in the market. The basic tool used by central bank is through the interest rate. Increase interest rate when there is too much money in the market during the inflation and decrease interest rate when recession to stimulate the economic growth.
However during global financial crisis, in USA, the interest rate is zero percent and hence the conventional monetary policy of playing with interest rate is not effective. QE, quantitative easing policy was used. With confirmed economic growth, FED then only announced increase in the rate.

Domestic wise
Malaysia inflationrate is affected by the GST implemented in April and it has caused a cost push inflation. The ringgit has depreciated and it has increased the cost of input material imported from overseas. Again confirming a cost push inflation scenerio. People will be conservative in spending as future outlook is weak. Rightly, the interest rate should be reduced to encourage more spending.

Internationally, USA as expected raised the rate and this will affect the money supply in Malaysia market. With RM depreciation and US interest rates on the uptrend, the money may flow out of the country, increase the money supply. Interestingly China has offer to buy the Bond from Malaysia. If this is true the money supply through selling the bond to China will increaseve money supply

Oil prices outlook is on the down trend and Petronas has made a loss. This will affect government fiscal policy on spending. Budget 2016 - almost 80% income will be spent on the administration and sustaining. Very little left for spending to stimulate economy.

Tan Sri Zeti will retire in April 2016, judging on current BN ministers quality, my personal opinion is no one is more capable than her. The OPR will be decided by bank negara - her successor and the team.

Based on what I have mentioned above, I do not think 1Q next year will have any increase in OPR unless the US rate increase has caused a large out flow and China is not commiting on buying of Bond.

Malaysia GDP dropped last quarter and it has confirmed the country is experîencing slower economy growth. If the trend persists, interest rate will either maintain in 1Q and may even reduce in 2Q.

This is only my personal opinion and other members are welcome to discuss on the economic outlook.

This post has been edited by gsc: Dec 18 2015, 01:49 AM

BNM implementing "QE" with china's help?

There'll be 2 meetings in Jan & March before she goes

This post has been edited by okuribito: Dec 18 2015, 08:08 AM

I think if we look at domestic only.. Yeah, when economy down, interest rate should go down to spur more economical activities. When economy up, interest rate should go up to sustain the inflation from blowing over.

Yeah,in my opinion, this is applicable if the world is only Malaysia.

But when it is about global economy, I dun think the interest rate thing is applicable for this. Because Malaysia is not taikor in economy, so I view malaysia as no great power, only can be follower. US hike rate, that will stem out money leaking to US, and currency will be weaker. If they don't defend the currency, many big corporate with usd denominated bond and loan will suffer and break. If they defend, local consumption will struggle..

End up, usually will defend.. haha

All is just my opinion..

oic, thats why taikor bones dream for 6% next year?

we learn history is to see history happen again ma
Haha

those rich unker like u hope for 6% fd next year. poor ones like me cry as loan >6%.

ad say i not unker yet lor.. below 30 bukan unker la..

Then u fast fast pare down loan and dispose ur non core asset and start to invest in FD

unkle bones no loan meh? rich unkle hope for 6% fd! those with loans

30 years housing loan, how to get rid? unkle? oh no unkle, no loan, rich young fax?

QE policy is used only when the interest rate is near zero. Is Malaysia interest rate near zero? No. QE not applicable.

Thanks for the input on MPC meeting next year. Outcome of the meeting can be a decision factor on placement of FD

http://www.bnm.gov.my/?ch=mone&pg=mone_mpc&lang=en

This post has been edited by gsc: Dec 18 2015, 12:21 PM