http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/mobile/article.php?id=273130
Festive Sales is below expectation.
Affordability is going down.
Good luck to flippers..
Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2
Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2
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Jan 29 2014, 09:23 AM
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Junior Member
416 posts Joined: Apr 2008 |
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/mobile/article.php?id=273130
Festive Sales is below expectation. Affordability is going down. Good luck to flippers.. |
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Jan 29 2014, 09:36 AM
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Junior Member
327 posts Joined: Jul 2008 |
Shopping mall not as many shoppers as last few years during pre-CNY.
My friends from different market segment says business is slowing down. The slow down is quite obvious this year. |
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Jan 29 2014, 10:05 AM
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Senior Member
4,721 posts Joined: Jan 2003 |
business slowing down because everyone use money to buy property....so business impact slow...but property up!
QUOTE(SilverSpoon @ Jan 29 2014, 09:36 AM) |
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Jan 29 2014, 10:09 AM
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All Stars
21,459 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 29 2014, 06:20 AM) Bro, is your dream coming true ? Interest rate increase by 4.25% in 1 decision Unless there is a contagious from our neighbours or peers, don't expect bnm to raise interest rate by over 0.5% this year.http://www.cnbc.com/id/101359309 FLIPPERS BEWARE !! QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 29 2014, 10:05 AM) business slowing down because everyone use money to buy property....so business impact slow...but property up! For every extra $ spend on housing loan repayment, there is a $ reduction in disposable income. Residential property once completed don't add value to aggregate economy, hence, high house price is detrimental to aggregate economy and there is a limit on how high house price can rise.This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 29 2014, 10:13 AM |
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Jan 29 2014, 10:14 AM
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60 posts Joined: Jan 2014 |
QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 29 2014, 10:09 AM) Unless there is a contagious from our neighbours or peers, don't expect bnm to raise interest rate by over 0.5% this year. That's interesting. The consensus is that BNM will raise interest rates this year as well as further tightening the guidelines and possibly increasing LTV as well. BLR has been unchanged since May 2011 at 6.6%; will it breach 7.0% this year? We'll find out soon enough. |
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Jan 29 2014, 10:38 AM
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Junior Member
416 posts Joined: Apr 2008 |
QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 29 2014, 10:05 AM) business slowing down because everyone use money to buy property....so business impact slow...but property up! Bro, I hope your statement is a joke.Else, it's a real estate agent's wet dream. In reality, many ppl are being priced out from owning property since 2010 or 2011. RM5k, RM10k or RM100k might be small peanuts to many *ahem* property tycoons here... But in reality it's tough for many to come up with these kind of money. Earlier there was a debate on earnings.. I dont want to reignite that, but if you go into more details in jobstreet's annual salary report (it's available to the level of position and industry), it's obvious the income level and affordability is far below the property prices in the past 3 years. |
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Jan 29 2014, 10:47 AM
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All Stars
24,483 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(khaiyin @ Jan 29 2014, 10:14 AM) That's interesting. The consensus is that BNM will raise interest rates this year as well as further tightening the guidelines and possibly increasing LTV as well. BLR has been unchanged since May 2011 at 6.6%; will it breach 7.0% this year? We'll find out soon enough. the consensus from major banks, i read, is no change in 1st half of yr. 2nd half, maybe 25-30bps.but all that can change very quickly if rm slips much further. |
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Jan 29 2014, 10:48 AM
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All Stars
24,483 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
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Jan 29 2014, 10:53 AM
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Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(zonefinder @ Jan 29 2014, 12:11 AM) So u should buy some properties & never sell it to cash in, as the moment you sell ur property, the money u get started to shrink, therefore you should just buy & inherited to your next generation & pass it on until eternity...lol |
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Jan 29 2014, 10:58 AM
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Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 29 2014, 10:48 AM) If all business in trouble how to pay monthly installment ? So staff/boss of property company A flip it to from staff/boss of property company B, staff/boss of company C buy from staff/boss of company D ...?? At time I wonder these people think before comments..sigh |
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Jan 29 2014, 11:33 AM
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Junior Member
119 posts Joined: Feb 2009 |
QUOTE(sampool @ Jan 28 2014, 11:29 PM) i think u cannot compare like that... some epf contributors although below 5000, but they may bought prop 10 years ago and some got part time business but never declare.... some parent bought prop for them... some combine name to buy... too many scenario. If you refer back to the few post that I posted, I'm mentioned mostly on new properties prices within the last 2-3 years and the trend of it. If buy 10 years ago, then no problem la. Even combined income for those below 5k salary, how much can they afford for the instalment portion? That is assuming both husband and wife is working. What about kids expenses? Travel expenses? Car expenses?anyway, now is the rental play times... especially expat not easy to buy 1 million prop now. so dun expect the rental will remind unchange... if rental up, prop price will definitely up too. prop investor need to scarify their time and money, so they should get pay for every prop they invest... if not now should be future as long as holding power is there. Rental play? Rental against property price is at all time low lar. QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 28 2014, 11:46 PM) Yes yes yes u are right about the not many people who has salary higher than 5k but husband wife join loan have u consider? Each couple will want a property and they combine their income to be affordable. Yes demand is there. And demand has pent up quite a lot. Demand will only remain as demand if no one can afford. Problem is most developer is profit oriented and they only prefer building high end condo's with nice concept for luxury living. How many property project which is cater towards medium cost? There is huge demand for medium cost but every new projects is now catered to high cost. And do you know why developer prefer high end condo? Take a guess on their profit margin after every single cent they spend. Margin for high end units is the most profitable.I talk about population increase all the time. My parents have 5 kids. When they bought this house it was 100k. After 30 yrs this 5 kids all hunting for properties in KL too. I mean the demand is increasing 5 times in 30 years for one family. But this is one family, how many families are there in KL itself? Then u have to compete with people from Johor, kelantan, sabah etc etc all over malaysia who wants a part of KL as their own. Location location location...good location will always have demand. My mind is thinking it is very hard for prime property to ever fall. Just stagnant. If fall maybe 10% but wont be as a big crash. CODE In fact, I really do hope PR1MA project does take off very successfully to fulfil the demand of medium cost housing for those who cannot afford high end luxury properties. If that is on track well, by then we would have oversupply of properties. But I'm sensing that this project will not materialised so early. I'm speculating that the developers is very much against this development as this will cause their profit margin to reduce as the buyers pool will significantly reduced. I also speculate that the big developers is lobbying to the government to hold on to the PR1MA project as well. I also believe that PR1MA will only be on track if there is some sort of properties bubble on the higher end segment where developer has already make enough money and laughing all the way to the banks. *This is strictly my personal opinion* Anyway I'm not eligible for PR1MAQUOTE(brother love @ Jan 29 2014, 12:00 AM) No risk no gain, bet big win big, people who tink and overanalyzed often missed opportunities right iin front of them, many year/ down the road they will still lament and complain and justify why they didnt grab the chances...i know many such people...some of them just too risk aversed Well, it goes 2 ways. Either I lament of miss opportunity and I wont make so much, or you lament with financial difficulties if bubble pops.This post has been edited by KChan: Jan 29 2014, 11:45 AM |
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Jan 29 2014, 11:44 AM
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Senior Member
773 posts Joined: Dec 2013 |
Looking at the RM exchange rate today, bnm is already too late in raising the rate already!
I saw many people exchanging their own thoughts. However, they miss out the answers on what have brought up the property price in the past few years. What have changed recently. To see whether the property prices will continue going up, one should see whether there is any fresh catalysts. Afterall, there are just so many conflicting factors at force simultaneously. If u dun see the down factors are getting stronger, your future might be in questions. |
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Jan 29 2014, 11:47 AM
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Junior Member
119 posts Joined: Feb 2009 |
QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 29 2014, 11:44 AM) Looking at the RM exchange rate today, bnm is already too late in raising the rate already! Yes there is too many factors. Anyway let's see if BNM will raise the rates today as their Policy Meeting is in progress. Announcement shall be after 6pm.I saw many people exchanging their own thoughts. However, they miss out the answers on what have brought up the property price in the past few years. What have changed recently. To see whether the property prices will continue going up, one should see whether there is any fresh catalysts. Afterall, there are just so many conflicting factors at force simultaneously. If u dun see the down factors are getting stronger, your future might be in questions. |
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Jan 29 2014, 04:24 PM
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Senior Member
1,360 posts Joined: Mar 2010 |
First time I see such comparison, counting the number of cooling measures to determine market competitiveness.
QUOTE Malaysia’s Property Sector to Remain Competitive posted on Jan 24, 2014 article source from Borneo Post Malaysia’s property sector is expected to remain competitive and stable this year as Malaysia had only imposed a third round of property cooling measures. “Compared to Singapore which has so far imposed eight round of cooling measures, Hong Kong (six) and China (five), Malaysia definitely stands in a better position,” Malaysia Property Incorporated general manager Veena Loh Geok Mooi said. Earlier, during her presentation, Loh said in the first half of 2014, the market would be softer as buyers would adopt a-wait-and-see attitude due to the announcement of the real property gains tax (RPGT) which would discourage investors who were in for the short haul. Investors are mainly attracted the most to properties in Greater Kuala Lumpur, Johor and Penang. She said Kuala Lumpur offered the highest gross development profit (GDP), given the employment opportunities, per capita income, population and sufficient transportation facilities such as the Mass Rapid Transit system which links suburban areas within the capital city. Iskandar Malaysia in Johor, with a 7% to 8% annual GDP growth, experienced an increase in property purchasers by Singaporeans and expatriates as they were cheaper when compared with those across the causeway. Expatriates working in Pinewood Studio, Legoland, Hello Kitty theme park, Medical Healthpark, Southern industrial and logistics clusters and educity were among the buyers of properties in Iskandar Malaysia, Loh said. “Penang’s real estate, on the other hand, has made it to a US-based publication’s list of eight great places for foreigners to retire in, along with its connectivity to international destinations. “However, Penang was expected to face a glut based on the assumption that future property projects, when they come on stream by 2015 or 2016, would result in a surplus supply of 44,844 units,” she added. http://propertyhunter.com.my/v1/news.php?id=405 QUOTE Cautiously Optimistic Outlook With Property Developers in Iskandar Expecting Tough 2014 posted on Jan 28, 2014 article source from Star News written by Zazali Musa The “feel-good” factor that was prevalent in 2012 and 2013 for the property market in Iskander Malaysia is unlikely to continue this year following property cooling measures introduced by the Government in the last quarter of last year. Property developers are rather cautiously optimistic on the market outlook for 2014 and are anticipating it to be a tough year for many. Johor Real Estate and Housing Developers Association (REHDA) branch chairman Koh Moo Hing said the Year of the Horse would be more challenging and that developers must be well-prepared to face the worst. “I assume that many of our members will adopt the wait-and-see approach in the first-quarter of 2014, to see the real impact from the (property cooling) measures,’’ Koh told StarBiz. He said the measures were not something new as other countries would also resort to similar measures to ensure locals were not sidelined and denied from owning houses. Koh said 2013 was the best year for 30 odd members of Johor REHDA who participated in the Malaysian Property Exposition (MAPEX) held here in May and November. He said these members raked in a combined RM3 billion in sales over a one-month period. “It would an achievement if they could repeat the sales figure again for this year’s events,” he added. The 30-day period starting from the first day of MAPEX is the benchmark used by REHDA to determine the value of sales by participating developers. “Johor MAPEX to be held in April will give a clearer picture on the Iskandar property outlook and how developers are coping with the uncertainties and challenges,’’ said Koh. He said developers would be ready to face the tough year ahead and adapt well as they had experienced the ups and downs in the industry over the years and emerged stronger. Koh said that speculators would be phased out gradually from the property market with the implementation of the measures with owner-occupier buyers dominating the market. "This year’s launches will see between 100 and 200 units with more developers opting for landed houses as demand for them is still strong in Iskandar,’’ he said. KGV International Property Consultants (M) Sdn Bhd director Samuel Tan Wee Cheng concurred with Koh that the market would see more serious buyers. But he said buyers would be more cautious on the new policies – the real property gains tax (RPGT) and the hike in ceiling price from RM500,000 to RM1 million for foreign property buyers. “Prices of houses will continue to go up this year, determined by the policies and escalating costs of labour and building materials,’’ said Tan. He said it was matter of time buyers especially first-time house owners decided whether to continue waiting or make the kill before the prices move up north. Tan said if the prices continued to go up, more buyers would go for the secondary market where prices were between 20% and 30% cheaper compared with new launches. “For instance, the average selling price for a new double-storey link house in Iskandar is RM800,000 per unit, but if you look around in the secondary market, you’ll be paying RM600,000 for it,’’ he said. Tan said landed houses in the secondary market came with generous land size and bigger floor area plus ready amenities and facilities within the neighbourhood or the development. He said if this could prompt developers to lower the selling prices of their new launches to attract potential buyers and also offer no-frills houses to cut costs. Tan said foreign buyers would continue to buy properties in Medini, Nusajaya as there was no restriction to foreign ownership in the area and they were not subject to the RPGT regime. S P Setia Bhd divisional general manager Hoe Mee Ling said many uncertainties in both global and domestic market might affect the property market in the first-half of 2014. She said among the issues were the pressure of increasing costs as a result of skilled labour shortage, reduction in subsidies beginning with petrol last September and electricity tariff adjustment in 2014 and policy changes. “However, challenges always come with opportunities and there are still positive factors in the Iskandar property market,’’ said Hoe. She said the fundamental demand for properties in Iskandar would remain high and strong as long as developers could adapt to their products to suit this demand. Hoe said the outlook was still good as properties fetched good yields and were the best hedge against inflation. http://propertyhunter.com.my/v1/news.php?id=419 |
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Jan 29 2014, 04:39 PM
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Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 29 2014, 04:24 PM) First time I see such comparison, counting the number of cooling measures to determine market competitiveness. Luckily we have very "honest" & "kind hearted" Developers / Property Agent to "Advice" us to buy fast 2 before property price go further north, Good social responsibility, U know they can always keep quiet & let U all stupidly wait & sell to U all at much higher price in next few months. http://propertyhunter.com.my/v1/news.php?id=405 http://propertyhunter.com.my/v1/news.php?id=419 Now who says they r heartless..Bravo Developers. . |
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Jan 29 2014, 05:49 PM
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Senior Member
773 posts Joined: Dec 2013 |
QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 29 2014, 04:24 PM) First time I see such comparison, counting the number of cooling measures to determine market competitiveness. Take these with a pinch of salt. http://propertyhunter.com.my/v1/news.php?id=405 http://propertyhunter.com.my/v1/news.php?id=419 MPI - mission to attract foreign investment REDHA - mission to sell house. Even house agent's words are more trustworthy than developers! |
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Jan 29 2014, 06:24 PM
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Senior Member
567 posts Joined: May 2009 |
QUOTE(zephyrus9999 @ Jan 28 2014, 11:08 PM) Investors are not likely to aligned to UUU nor DDD. If you cant manage ur risk profiles of dumping >100k to invest on something, then go settle down for FDs. In the end of the day shouting here and there up down left right gain nothing. Investors are already pocketing handsome profit years along and gearing up for future, whereas our keyboard warriors here still shouting for bubble and gained NOTHING. Haha, sour grapes are still the same. Probably when 5 years back also shouting the same propaganda on affordability. Now when see their peers cash in and have nice cars, then blame the flippers (which of coz its their fault!). Hell, if I were to pass you free easy moneh 100k in front of your face you would die to grab it right? If you couldnt 'afford' 5 years back, which definitely not now, then it sux to be you bro :-/ I believe ppl in this thread talking abt property already been playing this investment for some time. Looking at how property price rises for the past 10yrs, they had made their money. So tht "sour grape/jealous" comment is a little kids' game. Normally these biased kind of ppl, when ask them about property future, they will complain and blabber tons of cons (which I do agree too!). But when ask them how much have you gained from it, they couldnt answer. The same attitude 10 years back and also now. It wont change. What a shame ^.^ Most DDD campers already align themselves for the worst to come ... bubble bursting, correction, stagnation in pricing, whatever u want to call it. Holding power diminishes with time .... assuming price stagnation drags on for 2 -3 years, investors with negative cash flow will let go at lower than current price. Price competition will drive the price even further. Stubborn investors will only see themselves in foreclosures. UUU campers only looked at asking and transacted price. These data are easily available. The behind scene is what's important. Negative cash flow. We are already in negative cash flow for the past 5 years (installment + cost > rental). So the following events will move very fast: => price war => foreclosure (bubble burst) This post has been edited by HuiChyr: Jan 29 2014, 06:25 PM |
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Jan 29 2014, 06:48 PM
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Junior Member
276 posts Joined: Apr 2011 |
No increase in interest rate. My cash n fd continue to loose more to inflation n exchange rate.....want to convert it to equities or property people say high risk. Got fxxked standing straight.
This post has been edited by kohts: Jan 29 2014, 06:48 PM |
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Jan 29 2014, 06:55 PM
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Junior Member
276 posts Joined: Apr 2011 |
In fact my rough calculation , my cash and equities is better off without rpgt and with dibs. Now with rgpt and the cooling measures the loser up till now is cash and equities since oct 2013
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Jan 29 2014, 06:56 PM
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Senior Member
567 posts Joined: May 2009 |
QUOTE(kohts @ Jan 29 2014, 06:48 PM) No increase in interest rate. My cash n fd continue to loose more to inflation n exchange rate.....want to convert it to equities or property people say high risk. Got fxxked standing straight. Yup, interest rate is the one that pricks the bubble. Since no increase ....BBB campers can release a sigh of relieve ..... or not ? Check out this thread: https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopi...entry66098332 |
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