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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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kevyeoh
post Jan 17 2014, 11:31 AM

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don't underestimate those who really have holding power....i think it is easily more than you think there is...
so it may not necessarily be fire sales happening...

if you check the market postings on properties for sale, the price more or less still up there....

QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 17 2014, 10:25 AM)
If u wanna hold be my guest, we r targeting the mass that is going to give up & that's my friend is majority of UUU camp.

U don't wanna sell so be it, I am looking at your neighbours. .wakakaka

This is in contra of earlier market believe "if u can't affford the price flipper ask for there r richer one who can" so now is "if u not willing to do fire sales, there r other who's willing"..lol
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kevyeoh
post Jan 19 2014, 11:46 PM

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shakehead.gif shakehead.gif shakehead.gif
i think this time you smack urself in your face...

QUOTE(siakap5 @ Jan 19 2014, 12:50 PM)
Don't use the word fool. Mind your own stupidness before you call people fool.
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kevyeoh
post Jan 21 2014, 09:07 PM

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can you give a real example how can someone make a loss in good time?

past few years property boom, i think you can close eye and basically buy any property without doing any analysis or consideration and you are guaranteed to earn, at least 1% also. there is not a single person i know who lose money in property investment for the past 3-4 years or maybe 5 years...

QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Jan 21 2014, 10:40 AM)
This thread is discussing about the general enviornment.

But i always believe that there are still good number of people making money in the bad time, and some people even making lost in good time. This applies on the property investment scene as well.
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kevyeoh
post Jan 21 2014, 09:09 PM

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i have been asking this same question for a long time...salary increase not keeping up with inflation rate or the property price...so eventually how people can still afford and buy? hmm.gif hmm.gif hmm.gif

QUOTE(restful increase @ Jan 21 2014, 06:58 PM)
Yes..by 2020 when mrt lines 1 & 2 & lrt extention all up and running ekoheras, alila@bangsar & kl gateway studio which r now priced rm500k n below will b considered cheap by 2020 standard. Our salary increase may not keep up with inflation rate but our investments in properties strategically located near to lrt & mrt will keep up with d inflation rate or even outstrip it.
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kevyeoh
post Jan 21 2014, 10:08 PM

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alright...probably the ones i know...never have the issues listed below... smile.gif


QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Jan 21 2014, 09:38 PM)
Those who
1) vested in the wrong place, like those who vested in Bkt Beruntung many years ago,
2) Some property got value no market demand, just paper gain and siok sendiri. Can't rent out, negative cash flow, get stucked.
3) buy commercial retail lots, mall dead no crowds, buy office can't rent out, no office tenants. 

and the lists go on....
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kevyeoh
post Jan 25 2014, 09:50 AM

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the only thing that doesn't make sense is if property is really so good and the price keeps on increasing...then everyone can just buy property and sit at home and relax and wait to collect money?

if that's the case no need invest in stock or mutual funds etc....all whack in property...

from my observation, property definitely go up...but only in long term...i've seen real case for property bought in 1997 time and the price went down after that for next 10 years....but only recent 3-5 years the price pick up again and now back to positive earning if compared to original purchase price...

so long term...it is always UP UP UP !!! it is almost impossible for price to drop...like someone say prior to this..the RM1mil u see now is not the same as RM1mil 10 years ago...if that's the case, how is it possible that the house price will drop ??? if price remain also means you don't earn money already....

my 2 cents... so regardless if it's bubble now or not...long term, and i define as 10 years or more...sure UP ! 100% guaranteed....
kevyeoh
post Jan 25 2014, 07:16 PM

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yes...if you read my post...i say long term, can say 10 years...guarantee up...so if the price is RM750k now....sure can earn but i did not say sure RM1.75mil...

even conservative 6% earn, make it super simple, 10 years get 60%, so probably 1.2mil 10 years later...

but if the price is RM850k after 10 years, my statement also correct what... guarantee up !!!
but of course earn RM100k over 10 years not so worth la...

agree or not that guarantee UP !

QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 25 2014, 11:29 AM)
Dailou u still taugei meii... dailou if what you say really true.. folliwing your tend.. DSL outskirt 750k now originally 450k. 2 years after vp.. means another 8 another 800k increase at least plus yearly increase in house and etc.. 200k..  means ur 750k prop is going to be 1.75m in 10 years time.. in 20 years time... 3.3 million liao.. got logic bo...

the price of 750k is already a future 10 years price.. datis d flipped price.. buyers need to wait another 10 years only can increase.. so many agents around.. dun think out of the box..
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kevyeoh
post Jan 25 2014, 07:19 PM

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you got a point here i never think of....bank definitely will vet through the applicants and only approve those who can really afford...

QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 25 2014, 03:56 PM)
bearbear,
We still don't know 100% whether these people can actually afford the loan. In theory they can lah. Banks vet through them when they give them loan. DSR 50% or 60% is workable. In practical I think they also can, PROVIDED they always have jobs. So, all depends on the economy lah. If economy still ok, they hang on to their jobs, they can service the loan installment. If economy down, they lose jobs, then all hell break loose

And when they hold the property longer, as to how much they can earn when they flip, it is another story. They may even make losses if they hold long long time as calculated by gspirit01
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kevyeoh
post Jan 26 2014, 12:32 AM

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yes, i said price guarantee UP, so it's definitely UP UP UP.
BUT, if the price UP not so much, after your calculation example, then it is not worth it, but the price is still UP ...

that is the main point i'm trying to drill in... i've seen example of property price drop after the 97 crisis but eventually it will be UP and more than the purchase price and it's uptrend if consider today's price...

come on...you have to agree with me on this, the price will definitely go up in the long run... 10 years time frame...
smile.gif


QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 26 2014, 12:09 AM)
850k after 10 years... sure up lor.. u di pay 420k installment.. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k..

so 650k -420k-75k-25k -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. U STILL OWE THE BANK 30K.. Do you know ?  Flipping instantly.. those say long term investment is lying through their teeth..

lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
Means loan 650k -420k-75k-25k-200k= you earn 70k for 10 years.. means a year is 7k... per month is rm583 DSL per month rental.. hardly can get a room even flat sin KL..  u sure.. just to say up..

We have not factored legal fees.. stamp duties.. gosh.. maybe think .. subsales 750k DSL hoping for 200k.. srlling 10 years is sucide.. immediately sales upon VP can..

so those agent tell you sure untung.. let them hold.. 5 years above also die.. even home owners be prudent.. a DSL outskirt cannot reach 950k.. who wanna buy 10 year old prop.. haizz..
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kevyeoh
post Jan 27 2014, 11:22 AM

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share market drop...property up or down?

if share market drop...ppl dare not buy stock...use money to buy property...so property up?


QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Jan 27 2014, 11:21 AM)
I believe I had touched sensitive nerves when saying bubble......
Well, share market just drop quite a bit .... lets see how it goes..... smile.gif
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kevyeoh
post Jan 28 2014, 01:08 PM

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i have stopped asking the question why property increase 3x or 4x in 3-4 years but salary increase probably 3x in 10 years...

it doesn't match... but then it has been years since ppl predict it will burst... and look where are we today? same as it is...price continue go increase...

can it be possible that last time's theory or explanation will not work with current trend? what if new trend, you have 2-3 people combine income and purchase? that way, salary vs house price continue to keep up with each other, even though now ppl have to share and combine income to purchase...but at least still got buyer to support...

this is where probably the youtube video shown here did not explain?

my point is valid right? i know real cases where parents help kids to buy..or husband/wife share to buy... or flippers ...a few of them share to buy...so end of the day...the property is still not yet beyond reach....so there's no bubble yet....

QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 28 2014, 12:20 PM)
Property Bubble for Dummy "Made Simple"  cool2.gif

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwC6ZEL8J3Y

Since many "Children" here..  tongue.gif
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kevyeoh
post Jan 28 2014, 07:12 PM

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buy 10 years only earn RM100k?

QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 28 2014, 06:36 PM)
maybe u want to reconsider.. i think i overlook something di when i post..

taking back the same example:

Buying a 850k DSL (previously bought 750K now likely to be echo hill case) after 10 years..... u di pay 420k installment (3.5k X 12 X10 years).. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k.. let us assume rental for DSL is RM1,000.00-RM1,800.00.. increase monthly...we take a median of RM1,500.00 per month (this works out to be RM180K for 10 years)

so 650k -420k-(75k-25k) -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. you still owe the bank RM30K.. let say (provided 10 years you have tenant secure tenant) you get RM180K for 10 years. after minus RM30k you owe to the bank... you still earn 150k.. but think again the 75 k is actually the deposit you park in and 25 k is actually the legal fees payable, these are your own money) 100k total.. therefore, even with rental covers.. you only earn 80k for 10 years (assuming you really have tenant). that is like 8 k per year and that is RM666.00 per month.. rental in average..
now lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
based on the above you earn 80k for 100k profit, but for 200k profit, you earn around 180k for 10 years per year 18k? RM1,500.00 per month.. this is reasonable but the risk of no one buying a DSL outskirt worth 950k (another extra 30k [being extra 20k deposit and stamp duties payable])

so you see.. this will then reduced to the arguements of whether the prop price will climb over the million mark.. WILL IT or is it REASONABLE TO EXPECT SO? holding long term really not viable.. and outskirt prop really runs the risk.. coz the starting price for echo hill is expected to be at least 650k... COZ phase 1 ( 450k +legal fees+ minimum expected profit landed 100K) =580K? subsales? izzit logic to say? new phase 650k at least? so developer sales no problem as entry is low.. your flipped price really going to be stagnant for quite sometime coz you are selling future price..  if i bought the DSL from you for 750k.. can i expect like you around 3 years to appreciate to another 300k just like you.. dat makes the figure 1.05 million DSL outskirt? UNLIKELY RIGHT.. this was never a phenomena in previous years before 2010, things was great.. just this few years.. the price are crazy and unsustainable..

the real market buyers are workers middle class and upper middle..
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kevyeoh
post Jan 29 2014, 10:05 AM

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business slowing down because everyone use money to buy property....so business impact slow...but property up!


QUOTE(SilverSpoon @ Jan 29 2014, 09:36 AM)
Shopping mall not as many shoppers as last few years during pre-CNY.
My friends from different market segment says business is slowing down.
The slow down is quite obvious this year.
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kevyeoh
post Jan 30 2014, 01:10 PM

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I have been reading articles and always pointed out that malaysia property is still relatively cheap compared to Singapore and Hong Kong... I cant help but feel that this is not a fair comparison because I think Singapore and Hong Kong folks earning power are so much better than we in Malaysia...

Example... Singapore and Malaysia both earn sgd5k and rm5k respectively... yes... property price probably thereabout the same when it comes to dollar vs dollar...

But other items like food and consumer products are cheaper in SG... example like chicken rice or IT products... it is cheaper there in Singapore assuming you earn and spend there....

So I think they have more disposable income than in Malaysia... my friend working at Sg also told me... earn sgd5k and probably paid sgd1k for iphone but we pay rm2k plus for iphone...

So what u guys think? Is it fair to compare property price between the countries?

Any sharing in your thoughts are very much welcome !!!
kevyeoh
post Jan 30 2014, 01:11 PM

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The problem is land price wont fall la....
So your selling price always higher than loan amount...

QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 30 2014, 12:58 PM)
U buy land by borrowing from bank right ? so in reality the land doesn't belong to you, it belong to the bank, that mean you don't have anything untill you complete the loan tenure, so if you suddently no $$ to pay u have nothing or maybe lucky enought if bank lelong can earn some peanuts...  laugh.gif

Who say buy share have nothing ? if the price fall you can cut loss within minutes, but if land price fall you can't sell immediately, so you might caught up with a big burden & cash straped for long long time.

Those who end up with toilet paper r those who is stubborn & refuse to sell at loss, for me so long as one willing to cut loss at certain point & look for other profitable counter, one will not have toilet paper.  whistling.gif
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kevyeoh
post Jan 30 2014, 01:46 PM

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The fact that today with land reclamation already ongoing and done... still continue to up.... look at the area in Penang near Pg Bridge... very expensive even though reclaim...

If that place got reclaim land... means the land area already very limited or almost exhausted... places like Sg and Penang... u dont see land reclaim project happening a lot in...say... Pahang? Or Sabah Sarawak?



QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 30 2014, 01:32 PM)
As if land reclaimation, redevelopment or public transport not available.
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kevyeoh
post Jan 30 2014, 03:05 PM

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Not really that significant I guess even after like 8 rounds of cooling measures in Sg? What was the percentage drop? I the impact is nothing.... I have relatives and friends in Sg.... none complaining property price drop also....

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 30 2014, 02:45 PM)
Property price in sg, japan and hk have dropped on occasion.
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kevyeoh
post Jan 30 2014, 10:40 PM

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You mean this one?
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/december-resale-p...12--sector.html

Drop 0.6% or less than 1%?

After so many cooling efforts... less than 1% drop only... risk vs reward seems like worth taking the risk lei...


QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 30 2014, 05:02 PM)
Guess you have missed recent news reports on sg property.
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kevyeoh
post Jan 30 2014, 10:42 PM

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http://sg.news.yahoo.com/hdb-resale-prices...92--sector.html

And as for this one.... after so many years of up... when it comes down... only down by 1.5% or so...

kevyeoh
post Feb 1 2014, 02:32 PM

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but the fact is after so many years of so called bubbles and also 'bad economy' yada yada yada....the price is still increasing right?

will it be another scenario of the boy crying wolf and a few years later it is still the same message that there is bubble and economy is 'bad' ?

what about the article posted by someone recently or probably i read it somewhere....malaysia only launched the cooling measure such as what you posted below....but look at Singapore...after so many rounds of cooling initiatives...the property price is still pretty much up there...

furthermore, malaysia is holding the interest rate flat...and there's a sign that it won't be increased anytime this year...

btw, if you go ask around for new property launch, the agent or seller will tell you there are ways to work around the DIBS removal....since there's no DIBS...now the property developer will be giving big discounts upfront so you can use the money to cover for the DIBS...

end of the day...as a buyer...the offer you get is still comparable between DIBS vs huge discount upfront...so there's always ways around the rules....
notworthy.gif notworthy.gif notworthy.gif

QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 1 2014, 11:51 AM)
yea .. but it is SOLD but VACANT right? dun belive high rise u sendiri tengok at nioght.. like maluri areas.. this has been address earlier despite the increase, holding back will make loss.. coz u are servicing the bank...

economic back bone.. correct.. u also aware that the government  3 measures:

1) removal of DIBS
2) increase of RPGT
3) 1 MILLION restriction to foreigner especially Singaporean

can you infer what the government want to do here? less transaction less revenue? less transaction.. less bank loan.. less stamp duties... less stamep duties on S &P. i think property is the backbone of a country (if is increased accordingly with growth) here property is been inflated some parties just want to blindly profit.. we are living on inflated placed that were not supposed to be...

and i think government know that is the backbone, it is also now a liability to government as we are at risk of bancrutpcy..

this is the truth.. the economy is BAD.. house are inflated... especially outskirt.. developers follows suit.. many flippers are between 28-40 are are low end flippers..
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