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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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Rabel
post Jan 28 2014, 06:51 PM

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QUOTE(tigana @ Jan 28 2014, 06:46 PM)
I would suggest a mixture of shares and property.
You then have the flexibility to shift more to either side depending on the market.
Maybe 2 years ago, shares (foreign and local) and cash 30%, property 70%.
Now, its 50 - 50. for example.
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Yup somebody allocate like oso.
I only worry USA share index. Too high. USA still taikor in the world. Anything happen to their share will coz worldwide crisis. Dow j oredy more then 50 times break highest record since 2008. Yesterday closed at 15837. Of some economist predict 18000.
I think next crisis maybe from tis.
twincharger07
post Jan 28 2014, 06:55 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 28 2014, 06:36 PM)
maybe u want to reconsider.. i think i overlook something di when i post..

taking back the same example:

Buying a 850k DSL (previously bought 750K now likely to be echo hill case) after 10 years..... u di pay 420k installment (3.5k X 12 X10 years).. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k.. let us assume rental for DSL is RM1,000.00-RM1,800.00.. increase monthly...we take a median of RM1,500.00 per month (this works out to be RM180K for 10 years)

so 650k -420k-(75k-25k) -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. you still owe the bank RM30K.. let say (provided 10 years you have tenant secure tenant) you get RM180K for 10 years. after minus RM30k you owe to the bank... you still earn 150k.. but think again the 75 k is actually the deposit you park in and 25 k is actually the legal fees payable, these are your own money) 100k total.. therefore, even with rental covers.. you only earn 80k for 10 years (assuming you really have tenant). that is like 8 k per year and that is RM666.00 per month.. rental in average..
now lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
based on the above you earn 80k for 100k profit, but for 200k profit, you earn around 180k for 10 years per year 18k? RM1,500.00 per month.. this is reasonable but the risk of no one buying a DSL outskirt worth 950k (another extra 30k [being extra 20k deposit and stamp duties payable])

so you see.. this will then reduced to the arguements of whether the prop price will climb over the million mark.. WILL IT or is it REASONABLE TO EXPECT SO? holding long term really not viable.. and outskirt prop really runs the risk.. coz the starting price for echo hill is expected to be at least 650k... COZ phase 1 ( 450k +legal fees+ minimum expected profit landed 100K) =580K? subsales? izzit logic to say? new phase 650k at least? so developer sales no problem as entry is low.. your flipped price really going to be stagnant for quite sometime coz you are selling future price..  if i bought the DSL from you for 750k.. can i expect like you around 3 years to appreciate to another 300k just like you.. dat makes the figure 1.05 million DSL outskirt? UNLIKELY RIGHT.. this was never a phenomena in previous years before 2010, things was great.. just this few years.. the price are crazy and unsustainable..

the real market buyers are workers middle class and upper middle..
*
So what should we do?
value_investor
post Jan 28 2014, 07:02 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Jan 28 2014, 02:44 PM)
Yes I am ....
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I'm one of the type of investors you described. I have cashed out of property already. Most of my millions are in better income producing assets now. These people who says "property always goes up" are typical middle class who will never be rich becoz they possess low financial intelligence. They will forever be slave to money rather than master of it!
Gizaman
post Jan 28 2014, 07:11 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 28 2014, 06:36 PM)
maybe u want to reconsider.. i think i overlook something di when i post..

taking back the same example:

Buying a 850k DSL (previously bought 750K now likely to be echo hill case) after 10 years..... u di pay 420k installment (3.5k X 12 X10 years).. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k.. let us assume rental for DSL is RM1,000.00-RM1,800.00.. increase monthly...we take a median of RM1,500.00 per month (this works out to be RM180K for 10 years)

so 650k -420k-(75k-25k) -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. you still owe the bank RM30K.. let say (provided 10 years you have tenant secure tenant) you get RM180K for 10 years. after minus RM30k you owe to the bank... you still earn 150k.. but think again the 75 k is actually the deposit you park in and 25 k is actually the legal fees payable, these are your own money) 100k total.. therefore, even with rental covers.. you only earn 80k for 10 years (assuming you really have tenant). that is like 8 k per year and that is RM666.00 per month.. rental in average..
now lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
based on the above you earn 80k for 100k profit, but for 200k profit, you earn around 180k for 10 years per year 18k? RM1,500.00 per month.. this is reasonable but the risk of no one buying a DSL outskirt worth 950k (another extra 30k [being extra 20k deposit and stamp duties payable])

so you see.. this will then reduced to the arguements of whether the prop price will climb over the million mark.. WILL IT or is it REASONABLE TO EXPECT SO? holding long term really not viable.. and outskirt prop really runs the risk.. coz the starting price for echo hill is expected to be at least 650k... COZ phase 1 ( 450k +legal fees+ minimum expected profit landed 100K) =580K? subsales? izzit logic to say? new phase 650k at least? so developer sales no problem as entry is low.. your flipped price really going to be stagnant for quite sometime coz you are selling future price..  if i bought the DSL from you for 750k.. can i expect like you around 3 years to appreciate to another 300k just like you.. dat makes the figure 1.05 million DSL outskirt? UNLIKELY RIGHT.. this was never a phenomena in previous years before 2010, things was great.. just this few years.. the price are crazy and unsustainable..

the real market buyers are workers middle class and upper middle..
*
Your messed up assumptions and logic and method of calculation plus disregard for present value of money means garbage in garbage out. Get hold of methods of financial calculation and then do a proper analysis.
kevyeoh
post Jan 28 2014, 07:12 PM

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buy 10 years only earn RM100k?

QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 28 2014, 06:36 PM)
maybe u want to reconsider.. i think i overlook something di when i post..

taking back the same example:

Buying a 850k DSL (previously bought 750K now likely to be echo hill case) after 10 years..... u di pay 420k installment (3.5k X 12 X10 years).. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k.. let us assume rental for DSL is RM1,000.00-RM1,800.00.. increase monthly...we take a median of RM1,500.00 per month (this works out to be RM180K for 10 years)

so 650k -420k-(75k-25k) -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. you still owe the bank RM30K.. let say (provided 10 years you have tenant secure tenant) you get RM180K for 10 years. after minus RM30k you owe to the bank... you still earn 150k.. but think again the 75 k is actually the deposit you park in and 25 k is actually the legal fees payable, these are your own money) 100k total.. therefore, even with rental covers.. you only earn 80k for 10 years (assuming you really have tenant). that is like 8 k per year and that is RM666.00 per month.. rental in average..
now lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
based on the above you earn 80k for 100k profit, but for 200k profit, you earn around 180k for 10 years per year 18k? RM1,500.00 per month.. this is reasonable but the risk of no one buying a DSL outskirt worth 950k (another extra 30k [being extra 20k deposit and stamp duties payable])

so you see.. this will then reduced to the arguements of whether the prop price will climb over the million mark.. WILL IT or is it REASONABLE TO EXPECT SO? holding long term really not viable.. and outskirt prop really runs the risk.. coz the starting price for echo hill is expected to be at least 650k... COZ phase 1 ( 450k +legal fees+ minimum expected profit landed 100K) =580K? subsales? izzit logic to say? new phase 650k at least? so developer sales no problem as entry is low.. your flipped price really going to be stagnant for quite sometime coz you are selling future price..  if i bought the DSL from you for 750k.. can i expect like you around 3 years to appreciate to another 300k just like you.. dat makes the figure 1.05 million DSL outskirt? UNLIKELY RIGHT.. this was never a phenomena in previous years before 2010, things was great.. just this few years.. the price are crazy and unsustainable..

the real market buyers are workers middle class and upper middle..
*
bearbearwong
post Jan 28 2014, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(Gizaman @ Jan 28 2014, 07:11 PM)
Your messed up assumptions and logic and method of calculation plus disregard for present value of money means garbage in garbage out. Get hold of methods of financial calculation and then do a proper analysis.
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If I miss.. mind sharing?
Rabel
post Jan 28 2014, 07:20 PM

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QUOTE(twincharger07 @ Jan 28 2014, 06:55 PM)
So what should we do?
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Good question n hope got good answer
Vv.SoViEt.vV
post Jan 28 2014, 07:27 PM

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QUOTE(value_investor @ Jan 28 2014, 07:02 PM)
I'm one of the type of investors you described. I have cashed out of property already. Most of my millions are in better income producing assets now. These people who says "property always goes up" are typical middle class who will never be rich becoz they possess low financial intelligence. They will forever be slave to money rather than master of it!
*
just want to drop my 2 cent. everywhere are rich people, we (or I specifically) dont really care if you are rich, super rich or ultra rich. if you are not contributing to the society, then you are not known. You earn alot of money, u enjoy life, in the end we dont really care if you exist. Throw insults like middle class bs.. just like pasar malam ah beng getting rich by selling dvd and driving merc. You are still from a low class community. haha, i m sorry.
bearbearwong
post Jan 28 2014, 07:35 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 28 2014, 07:12 PM)
buy 10 years only earn RM100k?
*
Maybe u got a bettet figure? Name it.. I thought you are the insisted 100k 10 years..

then again.. 750k (originally 450k) upon completion landed 2 years.. so another 10 years will be 1.2 million plus 750k.. around 2 million?... logic mas?

Lets not go far moment u purchase it for 750k.. after 3 years 1 million.. u want to buy? Loan of 4.5k per month for 35 years
twincharger07
post Jan 28 2014, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 28 2014, 07:35 PM)
Maybe u got a bettet figure? Name it.. I thought you are the insisted 100k 10 years..

then again.. 750k (originally 450k) upon completion landed 2 years.. so another 10 years will be 1.2 million plus 750k.. around 2 million?... logic mas?

Lets not go far moment u purchase it for 750k.. after 3 years 1 million.. u want to buy? Loan of 4.5k per month for 35 years
*
Do you know that a lot of ppl goreng house not playing solo but combine together?.. 3 ppl goreng 1 house, 1 person 1k or 1.5k installment, you think they got no holding power meh..

There are always subsale buyers in the market. . As mention before, 2ndary market still dominate the prop market..

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 28 2014, 07:49 PM
Showtime747
post Jan 28 2014, 07:46 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 28 2014, 06:36 PM)
maybe u want to reconsider.. i think i overlook something di when i post..

taking back the same example:

Buying a 850k DSL (previously bought 750K now likely to be echo hill case) after 10 years..... u di pay 420k installment (3.5k X 12 X10 years).. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k.. let us assume rental for DSL is RM1,000.00-RM1,800.00.. increase monthly...we take a median of RM1,500.00 per month (this works out to be RM180K for 10 years)

so 650k -420k-(75k-25k) -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. you still owe the bank RM30K.. let say (provided 10 years you have tenant secure tenant) you get RM180K for 10 years. after minus RM30k you owe to the bank... you still earn 150k.. but think again the 75 k is actually the deposit you park in and 25 k is actually the legal fees payable, these are your own money) 100k total.. therefore, even with rental covers.. you only earn 80k for 10 years (assuming you really have tenant). that is like 8 k per year and that is RM666.00 per month.. rental in average..
now lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
based on the above you earn 80k for 100k profit, but for 200k profit, you earn around 180k for 10 years per year 18k? RM1,500.00 per month.. this is reasonable but the risk of no one buying a DSL outskirt worth 950k (another extra 30k [being extra 20k deposit and stamp duties payable])

so you see.. this will then reduced to the arguements of whether the prop price will climb over the million mark.. WILL IT or is it REASONABLE TO EXPECT SO? holding long term really not viable.. and outskirt prop really runs the risk.. coz the starting price for echo hill is expected to be at least 650k... COZ phase 1 ( 450k +legal fees+ minimum expected profit landed 100K) =580K? subsales? izzit logic to say? new phase 650k at least? so developer sales no problem as entry is low.. your flipped price really going to be stagnant for quite sometime coz you are selling future price..  if i bought the DSL from you for 750k.. can i expect like you around 3 years to appreciate to another 300k just like you.. dat makes the figure 1.05 million DSL outskirt? UNLIKELY RIGHT.. this was never a phenomena in previous years before 2010, things was great.. just this few years.. the price are crazy and unsustainable..

the real market buyers are workers middle class and upper middle..
*
bearbear,

You should not be hanging here. Property investment does not suit your risk preference. If you are that pessimistic on investment, you can never invest in anything. You think too much. Or you should change job. Your job is affecting your life. No I am not trying to bash you. Just concern about you. Compare to other DDD people, you are way too pessimistic. At least they know when market collapse, it will recover. And it won't be RM100k in 10 years so little. If only RM100k in 10 years, nobody want to invest in property

In property investment, invest within your means. I agree there are some flippers who go for broke. Let them suffer. They will eventually. But for ordinary investors, don't expect to ride the wave at the highest point and get off at the lowest. We will never be able to time the market. While we all thought that the market is going to come down, they market may go up instead. We never know. Just like in 2008 Euro crisis. Everyone thought market will come down. But it just stagnant for a while and shot up
twincharger07
post Jan 28 2014, 07:47 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 28 2014, 07:20 PM)
Good question n hope got good answer
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I dont expect much.. just wanna see wat responds we will get..
Rabel
post Jan 28 2014, 08:08 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 28 2014, 07:46 PM)
bearbear,

You should not be hanging here. Property investment does not suit your risk preference. If you are that pessimistic on investment, you can never invest in anything. You think too much. Or you should change job. Your job is affecting your life. No I am not trying to bash you. Just concern about you. Compare to other DDD people, you are way too pessimistic. At least they know when market collapse, it will recover. And it won't be RM100k in 10 years so little. If only RM100k in 10 years, nobody want to invest in property

In property investment, invest within your means. I agree there are some flippers who go for broke. Let them suffer. They will eventually. But for ordinary investors, don't expect to ride the wave at the highest point and get off at the lowest. We will never be able to time the market. While we all thought that the market is going to come down, they market may go up instead. We never know. Just like in 2008 Euro crisis. Everyone thought market will come down. But it just stagnant for a while and shot up
*
110% agreed.
AVFAN
post Jan 28 2014, 08:30 PM

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QUOTE(kohts @ Jan 28 2014, 08:12 PM)
Cny coming, for once lets huatla!!
2014 Ong Mali!!!!

really? but then... ok, everyone here is very savvy and dem sure which bestest prop to invest, flip, goreng...biggrin.gif

QUOTE
Consumer sentiment hit five-year low as inflation soars above 3%, survey shows

BY TRINNA LEONG
January 28, 2014

Consumers are jittery over the rising cost of living as sentiment fell to its lowest since early 2009, while inflation has reached 3.2%, a survey found.

The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research’s (MIER) consumer sentiment index (CSI) released today showed that the reading fell below the threshold point of 100 in the fourth quarter of 2013.

At 82.4 percentage points, consumers are concerned over economic conditions and would likely be more careful with expenses as the cost of living goes up following Putrajaya’s subsidy cuts on fuel and electricity.


RHB Bank’s Economic Highlights, reflecting on MIER’s CSI and Business Conditions Index (BCI) surveys today, noted that the negative sentiments among consumers were further fueled by lower household income and Bank Negara’s moves to rein in rising household debt.

“The survey also indicated growing inflationary jitters due to the fiscal consolidation measures by the Government,” said RHB Research.

The bank’s research house noted that inflation went up from a two-year low of 1.2% in December 2012 to 3.2% in December 2013 following rising prices of goods.

“As a result, the survey indicated that consumers will likely be more prudent in spending in the coming months, and they would put on hold their spending plans for big-ticket items such as property, furniture, computers and cars,” it said.
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...ve-3-survey-sho


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 28 2014, 08:31 PM
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 28 2014, 08:49 PM

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Just wanna add when i share my real experience of what i get in return from Amaya, DDD people claim that I am lying..come on!! They are just too negative but then claim they are being realistic...when i am telling real live events that is happening in my life and they are the ones who are being truthful but i am lying...

Then moderator delete that part of the comment where i finish him!!! Hey no one uses that phrase anymore? Finish him??

Yup 3 years ago DDD people say not to buy Amaya coz there is a bubble, i didnt listen, i bought anyway..now i regret not to convince more of the DDDs not to buy with me, and thats the truth. Btw the DDD i am saying is not in low yat forum but my real life friends.
Showtime747
post Jan 28 2014, 09:09 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 28 2014, 08:49 PM)
Just wanna add when i share my real experience of what i get in return from Amaya, DDD people claim that I am lying..come on!! They are just too negative but then claim they are being realistic...when i am telling real live events that is happening in my life and they are the ones who are being truthful but i am lying...

Then moderator delete that part of the comment where i finish him!!! Hey no one uses that phrase anymore? Finish him??

Yup 3 years ago DDD people say not to buy Amaya coz there is a bubble, i didnt listen, i bought anyway..now i regret not to convince more of the DDDs not to buy with me, and thats the truth. Btw the DDD i am saying is not in low yat forum but my real life friends.
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Bro, its different already now compare to 3 years ago. Not a time to be hero sweat.gif
Wiredx
post Jan 28 2014, 09:11 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 28 2014, 08:49 PM)
Just wanna add when i share my real experience of what i get in return from Amaya, DDD people claim that I am lying..come on!! They are just too negative but then claim they are being realistic...when i am telling real live events that is happening in my life and they are the ones who are being truthful but i am lying...

Then moderator delete that part of the comment where i finish him!!! Hey no one uses that phrase anymore? Finish him??

Yup 3 years ago DDD people say not to buy Amaya coz there is a bubble, i didnt listen, i bought anyway..now i regret not to convince more of the DDDs not to buy with me, and thats the truth. Btw the DDD i am saying is not in low yat forum but my real life friends.
*
You make it sound like your friends failed in life for not buying amaya

lilzany
post Jan 28 2014, 09:15 PM

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QUOTE(value_investor @ Jan 28 2014, 07:02 PM)
I'm one of the type of investors you described. I have cashed out of property already. Most of my millions are in better income producing assets now. These people who says "property always goes up" are typical middle class who will never be rich becoz they possess low financial intelligence. They will forever be slave to money rather than master of it!
*
so pray tell what type of assets are you having now... hmm.gif
Rabel
post Jan 28 2014, 09:36 PM

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QUOTE(value_investor @ Jan 28 2014, 07:02 PM)
I'm one of the type of investors you described. I have cashed out of property already. Most of my millions are in better income producing assets now. These people who says "property always goes up" are typical middle class who will never be rich becoz they possess low financial intelligence. They will forever be slave to money rather than master of it!
*
Pls share info
kradun
post Jan 28 2014, 09:47 PM

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May be toward end of the year should open a new thread about property surging again in 2015? An old article for sharing.

http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/artic...nt%20kiara%2028

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