Time DOES NOT benefit anybody in investments .... it's TIMING.

Somehow, the English above sounds horribly wrong........Hmmm

I am finding it hard to comprehend the above....sounds horribly wrong..

Ultimately it always ends with egoism displayed by both side of the camp. eg. my d*ck is bigger than yours comparison. Yet many whom self professed "logical", "sensible", "smart", "knowledgeable" constantly ask why such topic is always closed accusing the moderator as being biased.

Seriously wondering whether keyboard warriors do really feel ashamed?!

Anyway, whether bubble will burst or not; or whether there are bubbles, no one is certain. Even economist are in 2 camps. So whom are we to say yes or no?!.... Oh I forgot, many claimed to be this and that, expert this expert that, experience this experience that. My bad!

My 2cents and take it as final warning which risk closure of such topic again.

Lay your points and debates with points. If got source, point sources.
There is not need to reply every posts with sarcasm or just to retort.
Once points are laid, everyone can judge for themselves.
There is no need to "dictate" which camp one should be in. Again, comes back to my initial point, everyone can make their own judgement!

So if this topic goes off with everyone showing how big their "d*ck" is once again, say good bye to this topic!

This post has been edited by b00n: Jan 28 2014, 03:02 PM

Say what you want, as it's all theory. In the end those with thick wallets rules. Its an eventuality.

Average 20% up per yr .

Since u insist on an English lesson here we go:
TIME: U rely on the value to keep going UP with TIME alone. The value just increase as time goes by. As KChan pointed out.
TIMING: U move in and out of an investment at the correct time. So your TIMING is correct but hard to predict.

So predict the timing of this bubble pops =>

Yes it's theory based on my post below:-


Yup. But forget to add a disclaimer.

*Disclaimer*
This is based on few property that I tracked within Klang Valley. Prices from 2007 to 2013 which average out about slightly less than 20%. I used the 20% as round up figures. That chart based on hypothetical scenario of upward trend that we are currently witnessing.

Again, just to provoke some thoughts if this would continue based on past trend.

This post has been edited by KChan: Jan 28 2014, 03:39 PM

Collectively, the size of the subsale market is by far many times more than primary market.

According to Siva Shanker, based on Nationwide data and statistics, subsale is doing not too well - much smaller growth compared to primary market (but still growth), sluggish and lacklustre volume. Which means, the subsale market has been quite depressed and they constitute the biggest part of the has-been general slowdown in the property market.

Once the subsale market recovers, the overall market recovers as well. According to him, we are already somewhere in the middle of the property slowdown.

This post has been edited by accetera: Jan 28 2014, 03:59 PM

I think should average last 10 yrs price instead of 5 yrs.
10 yrs maybe more accurate to estimate to house price trend coz u only tk the good time how abt bad time??
For last 10 yr(2004 to 2014)
** house price drop in yr 2008

This post has been edited by Rabel: Jan 28 2014, 04:24 PM

Like stock and gold, until sold and cash in bank account, appreciation and price increase on paper is syok sendiri.

Or maybe just affect the flippers leh.. low end ones the most here..

the buy now theme or will increase later will not work.. it is already beyond affordability..

economic plunge or burst there are still rich to wallop wat.. and of course manu still waiting... as long the price plunge.. there is possibility ppl attaining so.. better than keeping increase forno reason..

or if really burst.. financial institution tightens causing many not qualify for a short period... those invested.. they will go bancrupt.. then all property under loan or even free of encumberances will be vested in OA nane and sell off accordingly.. of course cheaper just to cover d loan owed by flippers.. thereafter.. chances of grabing will be better as flippers already bancrupt or risk of defaulting ccris koyak.. unable to get loan.. less pool of ppl buying or compete..

a bubble burst in pocket and then full mode is needed to restart the property price back to normal.. with this to reliase.. some group of ppl really need sacrificed.. and I anticioated mostly agents and low end flippers to take the full hit... thereafter the high end flippers will exit the market or reduced accirdingly

That y I said ur point is for those no proper planning in property investment. Not all of the ppl.
Once buble really burst. Which group of ppl will go in to buy property?? Cash rich ppl.
Now who continue buy property with proper financial planning ? Cash rich ppl oso
Only thing how much they wat allocate now n how much keep for future or as back up.
U keep telling all ppl bubble, overprice,
Alamak ...

This post has been edited by Rabel: Jan 28 2014, 04:54 PM

As long it is cheaper and market heading to a downturntrend to a reasonable level..before slowly appreciating..

And a long the way eliminating speculators or even deter cash rich ppl will do.. by burst.. rich ppl will be very careful.. but for house owners it is their time..

u bought echo hill for stay.. why is the worry and anger as I posted in echo hill.. no reason..u agent? U allege u early 40 retired.. if bought echo hill... mb need be around 50 to reap d profit.. that time.. maybe.. the full fledge township will crystalize to highly populated area..

Nobody angry with u. Only thing is dun agree with ur statement.
We dun agree with the reason n the main reason is ur comments baseless.
Do u still remember I ask u to share ur investment strategy? If u predict poperty oredy is not a good investment tool. What kind of others investment tool is better? If u think keep cash then Y? Coz ppl know value of money become smaller n smaller. Do u hv any very good justified statement? Dun only keep saying bubble, overprice, bankruptcy. All ppl knows lar.

This post has been edited by Rabel: Jan 28 2014, 05:22 PM

Hi Rabel,

I'm interested to know your investment strategy as well. I like to know what is the main point to look for in property investment.

I understand in general that property is very good investment for long term. But with current new launches getting higher and higher on their pricing, do you still think that it is still a good investment? If yes, may I know why you think so. I'm still trying to figure out on what basis that this price will continue to sustain its upward climb. I would love to hear some insight and opinion, and learn as well. Because based on my analysis many many post back, I'm quite sceptical in the up trend.

I feel it is better that this thread shall have more debate and point of view with well articulate logics. Shall not be flaming by just giving each other thoughts without some explanation. Thank.

One way to test that hypothesis is to, of course, look at pricing data. I do have access to asking prices collated from various sources from August 2013 onwards. If there's anybody who wants some simple trending analysis done for any KL / PJ / Penang property just PM me.

Disclaimer: Use the data at your own risk. Also, I don't make any money from selling or buying property.

U r right, we should share our info n experience instead to comment no good, bubble, over price and BLU BLU. Then what should we do? At the end no answer.
My strategy very simple. Property still is very good investment tool provided u got holding power but dun allocate all the cash or affordability to property.
I prefer land n followed by shop lot, third only residential.

How abt u ? Can u share?

maybe u want to reconsider.. i think i overlook something di when i post..

taking back the same example:

Buying a 850k DSL (previously bought 750K now likely to be echo hill case) after 10 years..... u di pay 420k installment (3.5k X 12 X10 years).. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k.. let us assume rental for DSL is RM1,000.00-RM1,800.00.. increase monthly...we take a median of RM1,500.00 per month (this works out to be RM180K for 10 years)

so 650k -420k-(75k-25k) -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. you still owe the bank RM30K.. let say (provided 10 years you have tenant secure tenant) you get RM180K for 10 years. after minus RM30k you owe to the bank... you still earn 150k.. but think again the 75 k is actually the deposit you park in and 25 k is actually the legal fees payable, these are your own money) 100k total.. therefore, even with rental covers.. you only earn 80k for 10 years (assuming you really have tenant). that is like 8 k per year and that is RM666.00 per month.. rental in average..


now lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
based on the above you earn 80k for 100k profit, but for 200k profit, you earn around 180k for 10 years per year 18k? RM1,500.00 per month.. this is reasonable but the risk of no one buying a DSL outskirt worth 950k (another extra 30k [being extra 20k deposit and stamp duties payable])

so you see.. this will then reduced to the arguements of whether the prop price will climb over the million mark.. WILL IT or is it REASONABLE TO EXPECT SO? holding long term really not viable.. and outskirt prop really runs the risk.. coz the starting price for echo hill is expected to be at least 650k... COZ phase 1 ( 450k +legal fees+ minimum expected profit landed 100K) =580K? subsales? izzit logic to say? new phase 650k at least? so developer sales no problem as entry is low.. your flipped price really going to be stagnant for quite sometime coz you are selling future price.. if i bought the DSL from you for 750k.. can i expect like you around 3 years to appreciate to another 300k just like you.. dat makes the figure 1.05 million DSL outskirt? UNLIKELY RIGHT.. this was never a phenomena in previous years before 2010, things was great.. just this few years.. the price are crazy and unsustainable..

the real market buyers are workers middle class and upper middle..

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 28 2014, 06:38 PM

Ur karangan panjang lagi lebar.
Okok poperty is not good investment tool at all. Wat else can we invest?.

This post has been edited by Rabel: Jan 28 2014, 06:47 PM

I would suggest a mixture of shares and property.
You then have the flexibility to shift more to either side depending on the market.
Maybe 2 years ago, shares (foreign and local) and cash 30%, property 70%.
Now, its 50 - 50. for example.