Smart flipper flip the dumb flipper loh.

oil was @USD30+ in 2000 and now around USD100. everyone knows what happened in 2008, look at long term (>10yrs) trend if you are talking about investment against inflation. you have your own idea/opinion on the property investment and so do i, don't question mine as i never question your imagination.

It took 5 years for oil price to merely climb 2/3 that of 2008 peak, but you still has not answer the second part of your own questions that food price will "never" go down ? so how come essential food price I mentioned like Sugar, Palm Oil today is lower than that of 2008 ?

Actually the answer u try to avoid answering me by asking me do not question u is the same as what happened to property market now.

Ask me any of my comment which u think is imaginative, I will not avoid like..cough2

This post has been edited by jolokia: Dec 1 2013, 10:20 AM

Greater fool theory

Popular among laymen but not fully confirmed by empirical research, greater fool theory portrays bubbles as driven by the behavior of a perennially optimistic market participants (the fools) who buy overvalued assets in anticipation of selling it to other speculators (the greater fools) at a much highers price. According to this unsupported explanation, the bubbles continues as long as the fools can find greater fools to pay up for the overvalued asset. The bubbles will end only when the greater fool becomes the greatest fool who pays the top price for the overvalued asset and can no longer find another buyer to pay for it at a higher price.

Found this is Wikipedia. ... lol



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

http://appliedcapital.com/greater-fool-theory/

This post has been edited by jolokia: Dec 1 2013, 10:57 AM

I was in Ipoh looking for a house in Jun this year. General impression I got from the real estate agents was it was still seller's market. No discount entertained when I asked.

Saw an article in today's The Star describing the cooling down now in Ipoh. One agent stated that sales were only 50% compared to 2012. That is quite a big change from what I have heard only 5 months ago. Maybe things were already on the downward trend but the real estate agents preferred to keep the up beat tempo, hoping to keep the industry statistic moving up. Ha.

Also mentioned that many sellers are pushing the agents to sell their houses due to the RGPT starting 1-1-14. Looks like quite a number of buyers there are from the flipper camp. Guess it is too late now as the sales paper work will take months.

Cheerio.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Dec 1 2013, 01:24 PM

Most stuff especially of the tradable nature has both fundamental and speculative elements. The fundamental side is dependent on scarcity, supply and demand. Generally the trend goes up for this element ie growth in population, economy, depletion, innovation etc. Speculative element on other hand is driven by herd mentality, greed, manipulation, perception etc. Depending on time frame, the points given by everyone here can both be right and wrong...

you still didn't get it!!!
why price was down in 2008?
look at prices at 2006/7!
that's call correction.
iam talking about trend, look at prices from 2000 till now.
petrol price was about RM1.20/l and now is RM2.10/l.

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This post has been edited by mroys@lyn: Dec 2 2013, 08:22 AM

something fun to look. house price index.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/...al-house-prices

Gov expected to announce a 15% hike in electricity rates today. I believe this is just the tip of the iceberd. 2014 is clearly gonna be a very testing time for the economy.

If ure a potential buyer and u talk to real estate agents, they will always tell u its a sellers market. If ure a seller and u talk to them they will tell u its a buyers market. Bottom line is agents will always tell you anything as long as their primary objective is achieved which is to close the sale within the shortest time possible with maximum commission.

A smart investor will never believe everything he/she hears. Learn to separate fact from fiction.

Though I agree with the motivation behind these kind of behaviour, I don't agree with your general statement above regarding what they will say in sellers and buyers market...at least, not the ones who I know. Many of them are pretty professional and they realise that their credibility is important especially knowing its not a one time relationship thing when they are dealing with investors. Though I agree that one has to do his/her homework and there are numerous sources around to provide information.

The economy's gonna do fine.

Our pockets however....

Well its a general comment. You are referring to specific agents with whom u have a personal relationship with. These aren't many when u take into account the thousands of agents in the market now. I too have my select few agents who give me real time accurate info on the market but again, these are a rare commodity.

Agree. It actually work both ways. We treat them with respect, they will reciprocate with good advice. After all, they are our partners when you really think about it.

so much work la now hunt for property with motivated seller. Do u reckon i go look at housese every weekend. SO many agents, after 2 times, they lazy one knowing u are window shopping. Haiz.....

I don't think so though. If the pocket is hurt, the consumers stop or slow spending. How about for the thousands who are just "cukup makan" surviving each month with low savings? Or those businesses which are operating with razor thin margins (usually manufacturing)?

2014/2015 is going to hit the Malaysian economy like a knee to the balls. I already predicted this beforehand, hence why I made that "18 months" prediction" in June 2013. It's going to be a challenging time for consumers and businesses alike.

Some idiots laughed. They're not laughing now....

IF there is any external stress (which may or may not happen TBF) we are going down faster than a 2-dollar Thai hooker...

We will see my friend, we will see...

But then again remember that 90% of Malaysians can't spend much in the first place....

so long china buys our palm oil, the 10% will be okay....

U did a gd job buying even in 2013. Bravo. Ur 10% is vely true. Tats y be end won the GE tis yr. Some dun und the true reason for the 10% to exist.

That's the real problem though!

The 90% is real borderline living hand to mouth everyday. What happens when the price shocks hit them?

When a loaf of bread costs RM4-5, these guys are going to be hit really bad. When that happens......people should start to be worried...

Aisay, many of the young folks have their parents to fall back on if any cash flow problems. Investors ( ie long term) are always prepared to ride it out as inevitably, there will be corrections along the way. Personally, I doubt there will be huge crash in Msian property mkt coz even though it has gone up a lot in hot areas, it is still the lowest in the region.
For those who will be cash strapped coz of over leverage ( big time flippers) from a correction, you will have to take your losses. There will always be this category of buyers in any markets. By the way, I have no sympathy for them as they would have made their bundle in the bull market.