Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Bump Topic Topic Closed RSS Feed

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

views
     
plumberly
post Nov 23 2013, 11:18 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


Thinking aloud, like to know what is the ownership statistic for flippers, for own stay and for rental in M'sia. How many % of the buyers are flippers? How much is property value transacted by flippers in a year?

Why? Just curious. If the market is dominated by flippers (in number and value), then we are heading for dark cloud ahead.

Cheerio.
plumberly
post Nov 30 2013, 02:25 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


There are many new shop buildings and houses to be completed in the next few months in my area.

Just wondering how much can the developers make from their construction?

High end
* shop 30%?
* house 30%?

Medium end
* shop 20%?
* house 20%?

of the sale prices?

With the dark cloud in the horizon, I do wonder how do the developers manage their business.

Thanks.
plumberly
post Dec 1 2013, 12:09 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


I was in Ipoh looking for a house in Jun this year. General impression I got from the real estate agents was it was still seller's market. No discount entertained when I asked.

Saw an article in today's The Star describing the cooling down now in Ipoh. One agent stated that sales were only 50% compared to 2012. That is quite a big change from what I have heard only 5 months ago. Maybe things were already on the downward trend but the real estate agents preferred to keep the up beat tempo, hoping to keep the industry statistic moving up. Ha.

Also mentioned that many sellers are pushing the agents to sell their houses due to the RGPT starting 1-1-14. Looks like quite a number of buyers there are from the flipper camp. Guess it is too late now as the sales paper work will take months.

Cheerio.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Dec 1 2013, 01:24 PM
plumberly
post Dec 9 2013, 09:51 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 9 2013, 09:10 AM)
7 months and only 50% sold and they call that good?

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2013...dy-in-2017.aspx
*
I have realised the need to read our newspapers with a kg of salt. They tend to give the nice side of the story. Why? I guess that is one of the license conditions, not to create fear/panic in the public.

In fact, I have written to the author of one online property article where the author painted a nice prosperous image of the real estate industry less than 5 months ago. I cautioned the need to follow the principles of journalism (e.g., truth, etc) as some commoners may take the article as the truth and buy properties now as not to miss the train. If the bubble bursts or loan rate goes up, some of them will be cursing themselves for believing that article.

My 3 cents.
plumberly
post Dec 10 2013, 02:29 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 10 2013, 01:26 PM)
This is another good article share by someone else:
http://www.businessinsider.com/are-you-the...he-table-2011-6
*
Many thanks for the article. Interesting and informative.
plumberly
post Dec 11 2013, 02:24 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 11 2013, 12:21 PM)
I do have one or two people around me having to resort to renovating their unit to hope to rent out.  I thought it is just isolated cases.  Obviously, it is not.  Maybe you and I are just a small sub-group?  Anybody else have friends or families having the same situation ? This maybe a chance to gain more concrete info ?

The question now is not whether waiting for the price to come down or not, it is whether property investment is still profitable for the next many years to come .  Nobody wants to be the victim of bull trap.  Frankly speaking, I don't think many will have the courage to pick up a falling knife.  That is why many of us belong to the 95% group, and not the 5%.

It is a vicious cycle.  Agreed.  So, when it is a cycle, it is the turn that make it vicious.  When will it turn and when should you jump ship is a million/billion question.  Aren't we all here to gain some insight ?
*
3 of my friends bought a new SD each with the intention of renting out. The SD will be completed soon and from what I know, it is difficult to get tenants now.

Also, there is this 10 floors building competed some 2 years ago near one of the main shopping areas in town. Since then it has been sitting there empty. There is now a For Sale / Rent sign there.

Cheerio.
plumberly
post Dec 12 2013, 09:58 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


Attached Image

Saw this in today's The Star.

I just cannot believe what it says, at 10% of the price 20 years ago! Typo?

Or is the situation really that bad?

Cheerio.
plumberly
post Dec 13 2013, 10:15 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 13 2013, 12:22 AM)
According to JPPH statistics;

In 3Q/2013 number of residential property transaction in KL has dropped by 47% and 6% if compared with 3Q/2012 and 2Q/2013 respectively.
*
Interesting.

Saw a news report that house sales in Ipoh has dropped by 50% compared to last year, as I have mentioned earlier.

This seems to support what I learnt earlier on economy leading indicator, real estate then follow by stock market.

Signs of property heading south but stock market is still heading north (maybe to the lagging effect). So exercise some caution for those who want to get into the share market, especially the first timers (I guess the old timers can hand onto the good shares and ride out the unknown future).

My 2 cents.
plumberly
post Dec 13 2013, 10:53 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 13 2013, 10:31 AM)
It is the calm before storm.

Interest articles, with a lot of similarity. 

http://profit.ndtv.com/news/your-money/art...to-burst-371745
*
Interesting. Thanks.

2 things I keep in mind when I read articles:
* my biased mind filter - if I expect the bubble to burst, then when I read an article saying that, I will say to myself, see, this expert is supporting my expectation. And the dangerous thing is to ignore/don't believe articles which say the opposite. So beware of this natural human logic biased thinking.
* not everything they report is the truth, numbers they quoted etc. The data they quoted are from 2nd or 3rd parties which may be just opinion.

Nonetheless, good and useful to keep monitoring the development. Thanks.

P/S I like India's share index name - Sensex! Wah! Any state here starting with "S" for their motor plate number? One day they will reach SEX . . . . numbers! But I think they will not issue plates with SEX ....

This post has been edited by plumberly: Dec 13 2013, 10:55 AM
plumberly
post Dec 14 2013, 12:23 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 14 2013, 11:16 AM)
Given number of units under construction, it is almost certain.
*
Oh dear! A good friend of mine bought an apartment early this year when they had the promotion at a hotel. With all the goodies (free SPA fee, loan interest etc). Yes, all these freebies are already included in the selling price.

I stayed away from it as there are just too many apartments there and getting tenants later will be a struggle with the over supply. I may be wrong. Wait and see.

Cheerio.

plumberly
post Dec 14 2013, 06:46 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


I was not paying attention to the economy when it crashed in the 1998 and 2007 (or there about). Was just focusing on my job.

Appreciate some basic pointers (what happened, learnings, the good and the bad, etc) from the ones who went through them with fingers on the pulse.

Many thanks. Cheerio.

plumberly
post Dec 15 2013, 09:40 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 15 2013, 09:05 AM)
This last gold bull trend started in 2000 till 2011........between 1981 to 2000, gold was in a bear
*
My 2 cents on gold.

Used to think of it as a good vehicle to preserve and grow wealth. But ...

Till I saw a gold price profile a year or two ago. Flat line since 1900's till 1970's where it started to pick up (I think that was due to President Nixon (?) who stopped the US$-gold pegging and they could print US$ without putting the equivalent amount in gold in the reserve). If I remember correctly, that was the only major increase for so many years and I don't think I want an investment taking some 30-40 years to see the gain.

Also, limited industrial application for gold (semi conductor etc) and I feel the main price driver is politic/major incident which are beyond a normal person's ability to study, analyse, monitor, etc. I think silver, platinum etc have wider industrial applications and thus the demand and price driver.

There are some who have benefited from investing in gold, no doubt. It is just not my cup of tea. Maybe I should read on gold to get the correct picture! Ha.

Cheerio.


plumberly
post Dec 15 2013, 09:59 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 14 2013, 09:44 PM)
Back in 96 no one expect the economy would collapse in 97-98,  it was full boom, in fact u need to pay to join koperasi & pay large sum under table line up over night to get a house.

Properties was at full boom, every one thought economy would never slow down,  It's thought that Malaysia going to join Hong Kong, Taiwan,  Korea & Singapore as 5th Asia Dragon.

One of my relative supplying building material still expanding his business,  a year later went bankrupt as over expand & developer cabut with goods never pay, house,  car, shop, lorry all confiscated.

One of my bros friend always jokes to us that he bought a invisible condo in the sky, end up paying 35K for nothing  abandoned project was aplenty during late 90's.

U r indeed lucky never get a pay cut or cut your staff pay..lol
*
QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 14 2013, 10:55 PM)
I knew some people who lost plenty of money during 98 crisis.  One went bankrupt, and never goes back up until today.  He lost his factory, cars, etc.  If I am not mistaken, he invested in properties.

The other one actually got billed out by family, as he lost too much money in stock market playing margin in 98.  He told me that he wasn't in any mood to work at all during the good time, as he could make hundreds of thousands in days. He was in construction lines.  He said on those days, developers never ask about your prices, they just ask when can you start and whether you have manpower.

A friend bought a house at that time for investment, and left vacant for many yrs.  Only past few years, she managed to sell the house with price she felt ok.

I dun think Malaysia was affected much in 2008.  At least not that I could feel.  I think share market got affected more in 2008.  I think I could only remember NPL was bad, and bank shares are very cheap.  But somehow, nobody dared to buy.
*
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 14 2013, 11:18 PM)
All I know is that during downturn in 1998 and 2008, the sentiment is so bad that most people don't dare to make moves. Those people who are waiting for the price to go down kept on waiting for even lower price. When they finally decided to buy, the bank don't dare to loan them. Or they lost job because the economy is so bad. Although they have money in the bank saved up to buy properties, but because they lost their jobs, the bullet became their emergency funds. At the end, not many transactions during recession

Whereas those investors who buy during good times, continue to buy during bad times. They manage to pick up many good deals. These investors usually have target price and will make the move when their target price is met.

The lesson is set a target price. When the price meet your target, make your move immediately. If you wait and think the market will get lower and lower and even lower, you will never buy anything at all in the end
*
Thanks for the sharing.

Some of us here are hoping and waiting for the bubble to burst and then get in to get some bargain properties. Right?

But saying it is easy. Doing it is another story.

How to do it? - rely on real estate agents?
What price is a bargain? - 30% discount from the peak?
When is the right time? - till RTM news says the property market is now at the bottom?
How much should one borrow? - maximise OPM (other people money) for this rare opportunity?
etc
etc

Appreciate some sharing on this to lay a better foundation/basis on this rewarding property journey.

Cheerio.




plumberly
post Dec 16 2013, 08:44 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Dec 15 2013, 10:55 PM)
Anyway, I think the stock market will fall prior to the property market.  cool.gif  Listen closely to the pulse of the share market next year?
*
What I know is the property market leads before the share market.

Like now, signs of property market heading south while KLCI is still heading for all time high.

My 2 cents.
plumberly
post Dec 16 2013, 08:58 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


QUOTE(tangibee @ Dec 16 2013, 08:54 AM)
More buyers being filtered out from getting a loan doesnt mean property heading south. It shows less qualified buyers at market imo. Thats true color of buyers not about property value itself. Holding power is the key on good location.
*
I was not relating it to the loans.

Seeing more and more reports that real estate sales are on the decline. Thus ...

I may be wrong.
plumberly
post Dec 17 2013, 10:37 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


I really think I am the odd one out here. Most of the threads here agree with the real-estate-bubble article while I was already disagreeing after reading the first paragraph. No bubble burst? Either he was away in a calm country while the bubble burst in 2007/8 or we have a very different definition of bubble.

No offence intended. Just airing my odd-man view. Ha.

Cheerio.
plumberly
post Dec 18 2013, 02:37 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 18 2013, 02:12 PM)
Bank Negara formulates new measurement for BLR in 2014
KUALA LUMPUR: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is formulating a new interest rate framework for the measurement of the Base Lending Rate (BLR) next year to further enhance the country's financial system.
Governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said BNM would issue a consultative paper outlining the new reference rate framework to the industry in early January next year, as it needs to adjust and progress towards better serving the economy.
"Of late, there have been indications that the BLR as a reference rate has become less relevant. "It has therefore become less meaningful as a basis for the pricing of loans. Retail lending rates on new loans being offered by the industry are at a substantial discount to the BLR," she told reporters after the launch of the Asian Banking School here today.

Zetri said the BLR is the key element in the financial intermediation process and needs to be improved in term of its efficiency, for the banking industry to continue to meet the ultimate objectives for its existence. - Bernama
sweat.gif 

*
Ya, sounds to me like using better efficiency and improvement front/excuse to increase the BLR. Very politically smart.

My 2 cents.
plumberly
post Dec 19 2013, 03:32 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


QUOTE(OPT @ Dec 19 2013, 03:17 PM)
Baca ini,,,

Property bubble: fact or fantasy?
By Dr. Ernest Y Y Cheong

Read more: Property bubble: fact or fantasy? - RED - New Straits Times

http://www.nst.com.my/red/property-bubble-...antasy-1.143376

Whoa...based on Table 2, low income families spend (food-dine out) RM 100 per month, or RM 3 per day (30 days/mth) ...
Apa diaorang makan ni? It's like a slice of roti canai w/o drinks per meal.... hmm.gif
*
Thanks.

The scary thing is that article appeared on 14 Dec 2012, a year ago. They were already seeing/sensing something was not right with the RE market.


plumberly
post Dec 25 2013, 12:38 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


I had a look at PropertyGuru web site last night and I think my mind is playing tricks on me, the prices appear to be slightly lower than 6 months ago. Ha. May be they are the same as 6 months ago but with the bubble burst forecast/hope in some people's mind, one will "see" what one hopes to see. Ha.

Your view on recent RE prices?

Cheerio.


plumberly
post Dec 25 2013, 03:35 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,761 posts

Joined: Jun 2007
From: My house


QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 25 2013, 03:17 PM)
However, there are some who actually increase their sell prices, despite their prop have been listing for sometimes.  Can't understand the rationales behind.  If it is not selling until now, how would increasing their sell prices help ?
*
Maybe these are the super rich ones who want to project a healthy increasing RE market while others are fearful. Ha.

2 Pages  1 2 >Top
Topic ClosedOptions
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0586sec    0.61    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 10th December 2025 - 02:51 PM