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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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zonefinder
post Nov 18 2013, 01:18 PM

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QUOTE(re_freako @ Nov 17 2013, 07:56 PM)
The reason why we make money because there are somebody losing money.

The reason why both student being taught by same teacher need to attend test because there are smart and stupid.

The reason why even given the same statistic and data, the result will never be 100% accurate cause we are trying to predict future and market sentiment.

The reason why someone who are degree or master still need to work hard and somebody whack hew hundred dollar on 4D strike 1st price can retire because LUCK PLAY IMPORTANT part other than hardwork.
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Nonsense. Life is not so simple and its not always a win loss situation. When I sell something at a profit doesn't mean the buyer loses. Similarly when a teacher sets tests doesn't mean its to differentiate who is clever or stupid but to gauge progress. You've ever hear of the saying.." the harder you work, the luckier one gets"? whistling.gif
zonefinder
post Nov 22 2013, 03:50 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 22 2013, 03:18 PM)
1993 fresh graduate salary starting RM 1500-1800, twenty years later 2013 fresh graduate salary RM 2200 -2500.

20 years approx 33% increase 1.65%/year
By now if u can't understand why gov only take stringent move to curb property speculation beginning 2014, & think developer had no ideas on the policy before announcement,  why less project compare to 2009-2012, why big developer never make noise on these new policy, then I donno what to says to u..zzz

Who says price never go down ? iproperty or propertyguru ..lol
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Call it 1983 coz that was what we earned when graduated. That's 30 years with 33% increase. We are now in a Middle Income trap with economy still very much dependent on an agri commodity sector. Having said that, our property prices in the City centre is still lowest in the region so its not like the bubble is bursting at the seams. Consider this as a comparison, Shanghai 5 years ago has apartments costing rm 10m equivalent for a 1500 sq ft apartment with rental at that time only rm 18k equivalent ie a yield of 2%. A 1000 sq ft apartment at Mid Levels Hongkong now probably average rm 7 to 8m and we are not talking top range..
zonefinder
post Nov 22 2013, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 22 2013, 04:01 PM)
So where's the drop? Show me. If 1 drop and 9 others increase, is that a drop or increase?
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Don't think valuations have dropped but more like unable to keep up with market prices for secondary market. There have been many cases where buyers and sellers agree on price but unable to get the valuation to meet market price resulting in big cash outlay if want to go through with deal. One of the major reasons why secondary market is slow.
zonefinder
post Nov 22 2013, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 22 2013, 04:35 PM)
For someone who cannot even explain himself. LOL.

Well lets see, the group who said the bubble will burst and price will drop in the 2009 and 2010 was wrong before.
Lets see whether history repeats itself.
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Every dog will have his day. Say it often enough, one day, it will come true. The point is, nobody knows for certain as to the degree if there is a crash or a correction. So no need to convince anyone. Its a good debate and many valid points. It is up to the individual as to how he/she uses these information to make their decisions. cool2.gif
zonefinder
post Nov 22 2013, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 22 2013, 05:16 PM)
"Property only goes up, never goes down ever" mentality?

Often most bubbles are never covert - the signs are there for everyone to see (like US dotcom bubble and 1997 AFC).

It's just that most people refuse to see it. Greed blinds the eyes.
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Aiyah, don't frighten folks like that lah icon_rolleyes.gif Let me tell you a bit of my personal experience. I was in Spore in mid 90s. At that time, property there as booming and my contemporaries there never experienced a downturn in property prices ...ever, since independence. Same sentiments..pty prices will never go down...
I bought a condo in 96 close to peak in the market. Market corrected big time the next year in 1997. My condo dropped 25% and stayed at that level for about 6-7 years. Balls oso dropped lah but I held. Prices came back big time in 2005. Sold end 2005 with profit of 60%. Point I'm trying to make here is that if you have holding power and a medium to long term investor or for own use, properties is the best investment out there. cool2.gif
zonefinder
post Nov 22 2013, 06:01 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 22 2013, 05:49 PM)
Maybe, but:

a) You'd have earned even more if you bought at the lowest level in 1997 (25% cheaper).
b) It took you ~9 years to get a return of 60%, or similar to about 5% p.a. compounded, like mutual fund investments but without interest cost.

Also, that's Singapore. Please bear in mind that Malaysian market has much different dynamics compared to Singapore.

There are certain matured, established areas in Malaysia (in this I agree with cybermaster) that will never be too drastically affected. Places like TTDI, Dsara Heights, Bangsar.

How about areas like Sg Long, Rawang, Cyberjaya, Seremban 2, Desa Coalfields? Would they become the  next Bkt Beruntung? Even now we can see homes in Cyberjaya (!) approaching the 1mil mark for terraced homes in some projects.

Your guess as good as mine.
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I agree with you. Location is key. Get somewhere like Ipoh, even boom period will not go up. Mind you, when I let go, just that year alone, the price went up > 100%. If I continue to hold today, the pty will be worth much more. laugh.gif
zonefinder
post Nov 22 2013, 06:11 PM

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QUOTE(boyslikeboys @ Nov 22 2013, 05:56 PM)
+1, the mentality of property price will only go UUU????? think about it, it is not feasible, if the only direction is UUU, then by all means invest in record breaking price cuz it will only go UUU .... 1m also whack la since property price wont drop ma... 2m still whack 3m also whack.. what also whack ... then flip flip flip.
Although I have just bought my first property, i also will shit in my pants if there's a burst. It will be ugly and my decision to invest at this time around might be a detriment and me being a risk averse in the future if market really collapse la. Imagine, going in so young at 23.... how to recover....

However it makes sense to constantly be aware of the economic situations (also consider US EU etc) ya la some might say malaysia boleh ma but heck you can never predict the future....
If I can think like that.... I dont see why others cant think this way.... (no pun intended)...
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Again, if one is cautious and feels the signs are not right, by all means hold back. Frankly one can never catch bottom or the top. On the other hand, our currency is also losing its value over time.
On your point of UUU, I will content that this is the case over the medium and long term ie 5 years or more provided of course location is good. All the more so if one were to stay there in which case it may be 10 years or more.
By the way, I'm not a developer, just a humble investor who has had the benefit of witnessing a couple of major pty corrections in Spore and Msia over the years. icon_rolleyes.gif
zonefinder
post Nov 22 2013, 06:18 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 22 2013, 05:49 PM)
Maybe, but:

a) You'd have earned even more if you bought at the lowest level in 1997 (25% cheaper).
b) It took you ~9 years to get a return of 60%, or similar to about 5% p.a. compounded, like mutual fund investments but without interest cost.

Also, that's Singapore. Please bear in mind that Malaysian market has much different dynamics compared to Singapore.

There are certain matured, established areas in Malaysia (in this I agree with cybermaster) that will never be too drastically affected. Places like TTDI, Dsara Heights, Bangsar.

How about areas like Sg Long, Rawang, Cyberjaya, Seremban 2, Desa Coalfields? Would they become the  next Bkt Beruntung? Even now we can see homes in Cyberjaya (!) approaching the 1mil mark for terraced homes in some projects.

Your guess as good as mine.
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By the way, your 5% pa compounded may be true if one were to buy cash but nobody in their right mind buys cash especially if its an investment property ( leverage). At same time, the property is also generating rental income whether property prices go up or down ( provided of course you don't get a lemon). brows.gif
zonefinder
post Nov 22 2013, 06:32 PM

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QUOTE(boyslikeboys @ Nov 22 2013, 06:21 PM)
i think it really depends, if sentul is able to replicate location such as bangsar / mk I do not see how it is going to be adversely impacted. This might be the new location for professionals, young executives and might as well include expats with such iconic residential.... With these (well to do / above average) population flooding in sentul, what say you????

Also please consider the fact that MK/ DPC was nothing before this, ..... takes time to mature...
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I tend to agree though I'm not vested there as I think there are better locations. Sentul already has a master plan with clearly drawn out amenities. With second MRT likely to go thru the area, its potential is even more promising compared to say Puchong or Cheras South. A million for 1300 sq ft translates to about 750 psf. Can't get at this level at places like KLCC, Bangsar or Midvalley. If compared to say You City at Cheras or Ecoworld at Wahyu, I will take Sentul anytime.
zonefinder
post Nov 23 2013, 12:32 AM

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QUOTE(yusiang @ Nov 23 2013, 12:08 AM)
It is very dangerous when you use Singaporean property as an example to illustrate that the property in Malaysia will rise forever, without considering that Singapore is an island with limited lands and they have a brilliant administration which does its best to attract the foreign expats to live/work/invest there.
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Please lah, why get so excited just because I used Singapore as an example.. doh.gif ..the point which I'm driving at is that if one is to go in for medium and long term, property investments in the right locations is still the best despite corrections along the way. Are you saying that because of our lousy BN govt and its corruption that our property market will burn to the ground and that I have mislead everyone by using the wrong example? I'm sure the forumers here are a lot more mature than you think.
zonefinder
post Nov 23 2013, 06:09 PM

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QUOTE(Martinis @ Nov 23 2013, 05:07 PM)
If you think carefully how many units are actually launched in Klang valley over the past 2 or 3 years, you will realise that there is actually a serious shortage of condos/landeds to cater for expanding population.

Imagine you just started work few years back and are looking for a decent place to stay, your search is limited to the few condos around the vicinity of where you currently stay. Try it and you will realise there is shortage.

Price has gone up a lot. Yes. Thats in tandem with whats happening in Asian countries. But KL is still cheapest. There is shortage. Imagine a prime freehold in KLCC area only RM1,300psf or in singapore dollars only 500. is that a bubble? what price you want it to drop to? SGD300psf?

Malaysia has another 20 years property bull run. This is just the beginning lah.
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Interesting. Actually, you're not the only one who is saying there is actually a shortage. Perhaps you're right when gauge against demand but not if one were to look at actual occupancy of completed units. That's why its healthy to slow down somewhat.
zonefinder
post Nov 25 2013, 11:49 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 25 2013, 11:37 AM)
Don't believe all these statistical news, look at facebook photo shared about The Fennel at Sentul, people line up overnight to grab million ringgit property & 80% sold within hours.

These articles writer .. what do they know, probably some poor journalist who live in rented flat.

Malaysia market have another 20 years bullrun minimum, Greater KL land as limit as Singapore & Hong Kong, our price still way below them, plenty of upward growth, half Malaysia population expect to live in Greater KL.

RPGT, DIBS, GST sure will keep the price transaction in UUU & BBB mode.
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Long term I'm with you, brother! Next 3 years...well, be selective.
zonefinder
post Nov 28 2013, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(Paris Wong @ Nov 28 2013, 05:18 PM)
A lot got rich  , not really from "black Money" laa, as what U assumed.
Do more analysis from meeting people rather than assume or read form book. wink.gif
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Aisay, no need to take statements made by forumers here too seriously. Many are made with tongue in cheek or in jest. No worries, the folks who got rich in properties do not suffer from any guilt or are offended. whistling.gif
zonefinder
post Dec 1 2013, 12:51 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 1 2013, 10:08 AM)
It took 5 years for oil price to merely climb 2/3 that of 2008 peak, but you still has not answer the second part of your own questions that food price will "never" go down ? so how come essential food price I mentioned like Sugar, Palm Oil today is lower than that of 2008 ?

Actually the answer u try to avoid answering me by asking me do not question u is the same as what happened to property market now.

Ask me any of my comment which u think is imaginative, I will not avoid like..cough2
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Most stuff especially of the tradable nature has both fundamental and speculative elements. The fundamental side is dependent on scarcity, supply and demand. Generally the trend goes up for this element ie growth in population, economy, depletion, innovation etc. Speculative element on other hand is driven by herd mentality, greed, manipulation, perception etc. Depending on time frame, the points given by everyone here can both be right and wrong... cool2.gif
zonefinder
post Dec 2 2013, 09:58 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 2 2013, 09:49 AM)
If ure a potential buyer and u talk to real estate agents, they will always tell u its a sellers market. If ure a seller and u talk to them they will tell u its a buyers market. Bottom line is agents will always tell you anything as long as their primary objective is achieved which is to close the sale within the shortest time possible with maximum commission.

A smart investor will never believe everything he/she hears. Learn to separate fact from fiction.  biggrin.gif
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Though I agree with the motivation behind these kind of behaviour, I don't agree with your general statement above regarding what they will say in sellers and buyers market...at least, not the ones who I know. Many of them are pretty professional and they realise that their credibility is important especially knowing its not a one time relationship thing when they are dealing with investors. Though I agree that one has to do his/her homework and there are numerous sources around to provide information. icon_rolleyes.gif
zonefinder
post Dec 2 2013, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 2 2013, 10:36 AM)
Well its a general comment. You are referring to specific agents with whom u have a personal relationship with. These aren't many when u take into account the thousands of agents in the market now. I too have my select few agents who give me real time accurate info on the market but again, these are a rare commodity.
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Agree. It actually work both ways. We treat them with respect, they will reciprocate with good advice. After all, they are our partners when you really think about it. nod.gif
zonefinder
post Dec 2 2013, 12:52 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Dec 2 2013, 12:25 PM)
That's the real problem though!

The 90% is real borderline living hand to mouth everyday. What happens when the price shocks hit them?

When a loaf of bread costs RM4-5, these guys are going to be hit really bad. When that happens......people should start to be worried... sweat.gif
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Aisay, many of the young folks have their parents to fall back on if any cash flow problems. Investors ( ie long term) are always prepared to ride it out as inevitably, there will be corrections along the way. Personally, I doubt there will be huge crash in Msian property mkt coz even though it has gone up a lot in hot areas, it is still the lowest in the region.
For those who will be cash strapped coz of over leverage ( big time flippers) from a correction, you will have to take your losses. There will always be this category of buyers in any markets. By the way, I have no sympathy for them as they would have made their bundle in the bull market. cool2.gif
zonefinder
post Dec 2 2013, 02:25 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Dec 2 2013, 01:37 PM)
doh.gif

Our pro market is the highest in the region (SEA) with the exception of sg.

Did an agent tell you that it is the lowest?? LOL
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Just go google. doh.gif
zonefinder
post Dec 2 2013, 05:02 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Dec 2 2013, 02:35 PM)
Pls do and show me?

And please compare with the REGION (Southeast Asia) and not bringing Sydney, HK, Tokyo or London into the picture. Thanks!

I travel extensively and I know the average house price in Bangkok and Jkt as far below that of KL and Sg. Outside of a few super-prime areas in Bangkok, the rise, while sharp, is still much below the average Malaysian home price in KL of nearly RM500k.
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Champ, cool down, no one here is vying with you for title of Mr Know it All. Neither do I intend to "knock" anyone out with my views. Mature folks here agree to disagree.
zonefinder
post Dec 2 2013, 07:07 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Dec 2 2013, 06:40 PM)
Nobody is Mr Know-it-all, buddy.

Just pointing out to you that on no reasonable metric scale is Malaysian property CHEAP compared to other cities within the region (our region, SEA).

Don't get conned by developer BS or agent lies - it's helping you make a smart and well-informed decision and take into account risks when buying.  smile.gif

If you're taking a London, Sydney, NY or HK Metric to compare KL to, then you should be aware, no?
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Okay lah, boss. The region which I'm referring to does not stretch to London or NY. I'm referring to high end condos and residences in the major cities in SEA ( excluding slumps and kampungs). I understand the dynamics behind emerging and developing countries and cities as I use to stay in a number of Asian cities myself. I contend that our High end stuff is cheaper than those in Hanoi, Bangkok, Taiwan and Jakarta. Don't know if there are any decent condos or villas in places like Rangoon or Phnom penh to compare though.

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