Ic. Imo these past few years they tend to look at doubling the ori sellng price rather than estimated costs leh

Ic. We hv this discussed previously on COCR. The good time is over.

I read some of the posts too. They all invest based on 6 sense or past history. Not much difference from gambling big or small. Got 50% to get it right. When no price is expensive and the reason to buy is whether it can make more money, isn't this a sign of bubble as well ?

This post has been edited by gspirit01: Jan 12 2014, 09:15 PM

As if there is a shortage of supply and buyers are desperate.

He is just been realistic.

Except price inflation, what value did flippers added to the economy? Flippers risks is alike betting in casino, stocks, and gold, don't deserve any sympathy if flipping failed.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 13 2014, 02:32 AM

Malaysia's property market to take a breather this year and next

by john loh

PETALING JAYA: The property market might need at least two years to digest and recover from the various cooling measures that came into effect this month, but expect it to surge again in 2016, say industry officials.

According to Malaysian Institute of Estate Agents president Siva Shanker, 2014 is expected to be a tough year for sales, but the market will find its footing next year and catch the next upcycle in 2016.

“The market ground to a standstill after Budget 2014. There was a knee-jerk reaction in sales.

“It will probably stay in the doldrums for the first half of 2014. The second half may be better,” Shanker, who is also CEO-Agency of property consultancy PPC International Sdn Bhd, told StarBiz by phone.

Shanker believes that speculation over the past few years in the primary market, resulting in “far more properties bought than needed”, had been put to a stop by the new curbs.

“The days of 20%-40% appreciation in property prices after only a few years is over, ” he said.

Even so, Shanker sees the secondary market, which he said had languished for years, regaining its lustre.

“A new launch in Bangsar could set you back RM1,500 per sq ft, compared to RM800-RM1,000 per sq ft for an existing property. The discount goes up to 50% in some prime areas,” he said.

An analyst with TA Research said that unlike previous years, many listed developers have held back on their 2014 sales targets – a departure from their usual forward guidance in December – until a clearer picture emerges from the effects of Budget 2014 and other tightening measures.

The exception is Mah Sing Group Bhd, which is aiming for a 20% increase in sales this year to RM3.6bil.

According to the analyst, policy uncertainty on several fronts – such as whether Iskandar Malaysia’s Medini is exempt from real property gains tax, or the pricing of bank loans using the net selling price of a property – remains an overhang on the market.

“The sector’s fundamentals are intact, but in terms of share prices, the catalysts are lacking,” she said.

Property players have noticed a marked slowdown in sales since the various curbs were put in place, although it is unclear by how much.

A number of high-end launches were also shelved, as developers switch their focus to the affordable segment of the market, where demand is more resilient.

Some of the projects launched post-Budget 2014 include block B of YTL Land & Development Bhd’s Fennel@Sentul East condominiums, which saw a take-up of 80% soon after it was opened for sale in mid-November, while tower A and B of Sunway Bhd’s Geo Residences were 85% sold within two weeks, HwangDBS Vickers Research noted.

In Iskandar Malaysia, however, the response to UEM Sunrise Bhd’s Almas Suites and WCT Holdings Bhd’s Medini Signature Tower 2 have been lukewarm, Maybank Research said in a report last week.

The brokerage’s only “buy” call is Glomac Bhd, even though the firm has cut its own sales target for the year ending April 30, 2014 by 18%.

CIMB Research is more upbeat. It expects buying interest to return in the first half of this year, albeit gradually, when potential homeowners realise that prices are unlikely to fall, and that inflationary pressure from the impending goods and services tax, along with other subsidy cuts, leads to higher prices.

“As these macro prudential and policy measures are meant to curb speculation and not restrain genuine demand, the impact (though negative in the short term) should be positive over the longer run because they should help to remove froth from some segments of the market.

“Also, affordability remains close to its highest ever. Robust sales by developers should provide impetus for a re-rating of property stocks,” the research house told clients earlier this month.

Hong Leong Investment Bank Research, which believes the market will stage a recovery in the second half of the year, advocates a buy-on-weakness strategy for shares amid trough valuations.


Read it all here:
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...-year-and-next/

Thanks for sharing.

Many observations agreed with what we have discussed here so far. But, I dun really with their affordability view.

"Early birds privileges" still available to once sold out (a few months ago) project

Read some flippers need developers rebate to pay for first 2 years or 20% project progress of interest payment, means a number of units could end up in npl before vp in 4 years time.

You r referring to Fe.... Projects ?

Damn these mamak restaurants!

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014...-going-up-soon/

Whicj one is this

Forumers.. I was thinking the governments measures I.e

removal of DIBS
1 million bar to foreigners (killing iskandar immediately

I mean like government make unpopular decision after they regain power..like increase in prices which mostly benefited the rich class.. have u ever thought why government enforce 2 of the cooling measures.. I kept thinking.. removal of DIBS will definately remove low end flippers.. and left with cash loaded house buyers and flippers... on the other side of the coin.. government receive less revenue isnt.. stamp duties.. loan & S&P..u know govermnent do make the unpopular move and in this the government are losing money izzit.. the stricker it is the less ppl be able to purchase property( do you agree).. less transaction less stamp duties..

even the price stagnant stamp duties also stagnant... less income... unpopular move ..yes unpopular move and getting less revenue... u know ( u guys intrepret it)..

The 1 million bar which is more obvious than not is targetting singaporean and also china investors.. dat is another easy money (less revenue) again.. which kill iskandar.. the government which is less caring increase all the price on commodities causing a domino effect.. then again u guys say coz all increase prop price will increase further... it is totally against both the cooling measures isnt..

I preceive even the government revenue is lesser they still enforce it... even the government reliase it though it is a pain to have the revenue reduction especially stamp duties on prop they still do implement it.. mb evenD GOVERNMENT KNOW PROP PRICE is already out of hands..?..still a lot still on buying mode when it is really against the flow u see.. maybe you would ponder a while.. maybe u say so because u have property in hands..

it is like a movie time again... "the red cliff" u guys know..

"Lord chao chao leading with the strongest army against both alliance Lord liu and his famous 5 generals ( one of them u businessman owayls put to pray as that god) and dongwu.. can you imigane why a battalion of army worth of 200k army lost to less 50k army"

lord chao chao was confident with the number of army he has thus disregarding the fact that they have disadvantage against them for lack maritime war . Lack of powerful generals.. lack of experience after he slaughter both lord chai mao brothers which is d key victory.. without them still insist to take over red cliff..thus losing the battle..and end up in total defeat andxretreat and die...

info neither Lord chao chao or his son united the 3 kingdoms.. it was the commander in chief.. sima yuan united the 3 kingdoms and crown himself as dynasty jin taking name as "Jin Yuandi".

sth the government think is bad.. and walk the talk subsequently should be taken serious the government seems to mean to iskandar.. we should not just ignore it.. ponder upon..

my 2 cents

Genuine buyers should not get too bogged down in the current market. It will change. Property do go through different cycles, up and down, happened all over the world, not only here...each cycle will present different opportunities. Exercise caution is your best defence against these changes. The warning of a 'bubble' will not stop people from buying when they see a good deal, there are some out there, even in this market, both new and secondary...
Property is one of the first product to react to a growing economy, so as soon as things start to get better, the prices will start to go up again.

I agree.. only apply to those inflated landed in kv and high rise in kl.. if opportunity comes and u feel reasonable.. grab it for home stay.. for flipping business secondary or primary is reli not advisible government intention is very clear despite they losing revenue..and the no mercy killing..iskandar project.. before u purchase have a thought of what u want to do flipping short term.. long term... or even iwn stay.. fit it with affordability..

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 13 2014, 12:01 PM

According to Ecosky banner; "early birds privileges" is still available

People are attracted to quick profit making. For RE market, only small percentage will make money in the end, if they can cash in their profit. In property investment, only banks, prop agents, and developers are sure winners.

It is the same as contra stocks. Only when there is a quick and big rise, people can make money. If investor holds, one will lose a lot of money when the prices stagnant or decline slightly due to commissions, expenses, interests. This loss is amplified by leverages.

Without cheap credits, dibs, foreign hot money, and with new rpgt, the market will slow greatly. Unless the above changes, RE market won't hv quick and big rise in the near future.

Corrected:
Has anyone noticed that the transactions of properties are more than 30% of the whole malaysia prop in the last 3-4 years ? And the next 2 yrs, we hv another 15-20% supplies ?

http://napic.jpph.gov.my/epsKeyStatistics/...tletWindowsnpbj

This post has been edited by gspirit01: Jan 13 2014, 12:26 PM

Sharing what I did last night. Used data from NAPIC. I am not responsible for the accuracy of the data here or their interpretation.



1
Asking myself, is line B2 the new brother of A2?

2
In the 1998 crash, tell-tale sign was the high rise price index which declined 2 years before others. Do not see that pattern now. In fact, high rise index has increased the most (39%) among others over the last 3 years.

All Tce HR SD DT ==> 28% 28% 39% 24% 26%

Did we really see this higher jump in HR price in the market from 2010-2012?

3
The decline in 2008 was less than I expected (I expected >30%). The total drops over 2008 & 2009 were:

-12% -8% -10% -20% -13%

Biggest one was the SD sector.

If the relationship between the index and the actual price is linear, then the price drop was not that much, less than 20% in the 2 years.


I know history does not repeat itself down to the seconds but some awareness should be helpful.

If you see some other things in the 2 graphs, please share.

And also, if you have 2013 house price index data, please share as well. I am very interested to know whether the index in 2013 has started to decline like in 1997. Then more bad news to come!

Cheerio.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Jan 13 2014, 12:45 PM

So based on this, whats your analysis of where we're at and what lies in future for the property sector?

If the data is for the whole malaysia, then the drops are dampened by areas that are not affected by previous rise or drop. An average drop of -20% may mean some prime areas may suffer big drops.

Like I said earlier, it depends on the 2013 data. If it is lower than 2012, then my bet is a similar downward trend like in 1998.

Good point. Data is for the whole of M'sia.

Data for Q1 and Q2 2013 available. Preliminary data for Q3 2013 also here:
http://napic.jpph.gov.my/portal/content/Pu...HRM_Q3_2013.pdf

Q1 and Q2 still shows strong growth. Q3 preliminary data shows weakening.