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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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cranx
post Jan 12 2014, 01:07 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 12 2014, 10:39 AM)
Flippers and buyers of expensive houses also work hard for their money and take risks. It is better to direct energy to making products and providing services to other people, to add value to the society, rather than cursing others and making no gains in the savings account.
*
I wonder what kind of service or value add does a flipper provide to society?
Lining up at property launch overnight? tongue.gif


ManutdGiggs
post Jan 12 2014, 01:07 PM

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Can anyone guarantee the prop market burst soon or getting beta looking ahead another 12 yrs???


gspirit01
post Jan 12 2014, 01:15 PM

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QUOTE(jwrx @ Jan 12 2014, 12:23 PM)
this is damn good advice.

I share my stories as well. Im currently staying in a prop which i bought for 1.3mil in PJ back in 2011. That time, price still ok, but can see flippers starting to come in, over the years, the flippers came in force, cos areas like TTDI/DJ etc became too expensive, prices creep to 2mil....then 2.2mil...then 2.5mil. And this in turn attracted even more flippers to
There is a bungalow project near my relative house in cheras by a famous developer. At first, it was 1.8m. Half way construction, it was 2.8m. Finally it hit 3.8m and sold out. Now, more than 1 yr vp, the whole area is dark at night. So far I hv not seen one staying inside. The banner at the lamp post say 3.6m bank lelong. At peak time, my relative said that some investors told him that the more expensive, the better, as can make more. (I think bbw should know where this is tongue.gif )

I am not too much into market crash. However, market crash is not that difficult in price mechanism. As all asset price are referenced, a small number of property price crash will bring down the whole market with it. Just like the great rise in prop price in the last few years are only brought up by a small percentage of houses. The rest of the houses are not traded at all, but rise in value.

Residential prop investment is tricky. The price can stay the same for the next 3 yrs, the investors still suffer big loss to cover all interest and expenses as it is highly leveraged.

This post has been edited by gspirit01: Jan 12 2014, 01:23 PM
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 12 2014, 01:22 PM

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Auction house not only having bank as customer. Many owner can ask auction house to help instead of agent. There is a very gd way to sell prop thru auction house if u know the way. brows.gif
jwrx
post Jan 12 2014, 01:25 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 12 2014, 01:02 PM)
See u also been flipping around lehh.. based on your experience.. now is the climate flipping business still ok bo.. like DSLoutskirt 750k...our mini TTDI now in kajang.. TTDI GROOVE KAJANG..

u sucessful many stuck liao.. damansara 418k.. now outskirt di 430k launching lehh like semenyih area..
*
i didnt flip, i did my homework and sold out to buy cheaper, bigger property elsewhere.

When i bought DK, the same house across the street in TTDI was 700-780, DJ was 600+, but DK was deemed "lower class" compared to BU/DJ/TTDI. I bought it anyway, it was in my budget. I remember collegues saying things liek "yeargh..why u buy DK, DJ so much more desiarable"

When prices started going up, and i started seeing ppl selling 800-900, i knew it was time to go. I did my research, and found another area nearby that was also deemed "lower class" cos it was near cemetry, crematorium and LRT...sold my DK bought my current place...now few years later, ppl asking 3 times what i paid

You cant do the same now im afraid...my advice is to wait or rent in meantime, invest your money in KLSE etc. There still are places in older parts of PJ, like SS3 etc that you can find reasonable props
cranx
post Jan 12 2014, 01:27 PM

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http://www.iproperty.com.my/news/8155/mayb...property-sector

QUOTE
Maybank IB Maintains "Underweight" Rating On Property Sector

KUALA LUMPUR: Maybank Investment Bank has maintained its "underweight" rating on the property sector and expect the market to be hit by the new cooling measures of Budget 2014.

The investment bank said developers had expressed caution on the property market outlook over the next six months and are switching their product focus to affordable housing as the demand is still resilient and supported by the young demographic.

"Stricter mortgage lending by the banks will also slow down new transactions," the bank said in a note Wednesday.

Competition is also intensifying with the entry of developers from China into Iskandar Malaysia, said the investment bank.

At end-2013, China-based Guangzhou R&F Properties acquired 46.94 hectares in Johor Baharu from the Sultan of Johor for US$1.4 billion.

"We are concerned that these developers will deluge the market with a massive supply of high-rise mixed development projects, inducing price volatility, if there is no synchronised planning and control by the authorities," it added.

- BERNAMA


Read the research paper here

http://research.maybank-ib.com/pdf/documen..._Draft_5624.pdf

Disclaimer *please take it with a grain of salt, they are just a bunch of analyst sitting in front of their computers. Real tycoons are HERE busy replying forum threads.. rolleyes.gif




Wiredx
post Jan 12 2014, 01:27 PM

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Good move!^^ (jwrx)

This post has been edited by Wiredx: Jan 12 2014, 01:28 PM
bearbearwong
post Jan 12 2014, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(jwrx @ Jan 12 2014, 01:25 PM)
i didnt flip, i did my homework and sold out to buy cheaper, bigger property elsewhere.

When i bought DK, the same house across the street in TTDI was 700-780, DJ was 600+, but DK was deemed "lower class" compared to BU/DJ/TTDI. I bought it anyway, it was in my budget. I remember collegues saying things liek "yeargh..why u buy DK, DJ so much more desiarable"

When prices started going up, and i started seeing ppl selling 800-900, i knew it was time to go. I did my research, and found another area nearby that was also deemed "lower class" cos it was near cemetry, crematorium and LRT...sold my DK bought my current place...now few years later, ppl asking 3 times what i paid

You cant do the same now im afraid...my advice is to wait or rent in meantime, invest your money in KLSE etc. There still are places in older parts of PJ, like SS3 etc that you can find reasonable props
*
Withdraw my accusation of being a flipper.. good know when to let go.. you answer my question.. now really cannot play liao.. now the investors or infact the developer are greedy.. like TTDI kajang state reserve for bumi at 430k of course with 7 percent bumi if not mistaken... when all non bumi purchased by flippers..while bumi still cant sell off thr reapply and reopen bumi lots to non bumi and now selling 780k just like other flippers.. u see greedy or not u flippers feed them so good lehh..

actually still available in TTDI groove sales galerry the said units..
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 12 2014, 01:38 PM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Jan 12 2014, 11:45 AM)
In 2002 what was the interest rate amd how easy was it to get loans though?
*
If not mistaken my loan was blr-1
bearbearwong
post Jan 12 2014, 01:40 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 12 2014, 01:15 PM)
There is a bungalow project near my relative house in cheras by a famous developer. At first, it was 1.8m.  Half way construction, it was 2.8m. Finally it hit 3.8m and sold out. Now, more than 1 yr vp, the whole area is dark at night. So far I hv not seen one staying inside.  The banner at the lamp post say 3.6m bank lelong.  At peak time, my relative said that some investors told him that the more expensive, the better, as can make more.  (I think bbw should know where this is tongue.gif )

I am not too much into market crash. However, market crash is not that difficult in price mechanism. As all asset price are referenced, a small number of property price crash will bring down the whole market with it. Just like the great rise in prop price in the last few years are only brought up by a small percentage of houses. The rest of the houses are not traded at all, but rise in value. 

Residential prop investment is tricky.  The price can stay the same for the next 3 yrs, the investors still suffer big loss to cover all interest and expenses as it is highly leveraged.
*
Mana.. behind kaki corner.. that roundabout oppo d ite midah tesco kahh.. wee ka siong alleged helicopter spy bunglow.. or bukit segar...is it near ampang that one dunno wat name.. or suntex there.. or andy lau bunglow there sleep.gif

wrong guess.. enlighten us..

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 12 2014, 01:41 PM
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 12 2014, 01:41 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 12 2014, 11:49 AM)
In 2002.. 400k still affordable now how much.. the market is middle class or u also muddle class trying to go upper middle clasd maa.. now 750k wor outskirt kl with fancy name like seri pajam.. setia echo hill kl friendly neighbourhood near high tensio  cable southville.. promising will reach kl in 50 minutes.. 40 minutes.. 30 minutez respectively via Lekas high way and seremban high way.. in fact from leisure mall alone itself to OFFICE concentrated areas requires 1.5 hours at peak hours... plus their respective 40.. 50 ... 30 minutes.. who wanba buy.. invest many laaaaa
*
400k can b unaffordable if excuses r given at all time.
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 12 2014, 01:42 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 12 2014, 11:51 AM)
For elder sister and family to stay.. not flipping.. haiyaa discussion wise maa no offence one..  u are still the winner lehh market has yet to collapse or any correctio  yet
*
Market oledi have bad signs. Many owners started to ask auction house to promote their house liao.
bearbearwong
post Jan 12 2014, 01:43 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 12 2014, 01:41 PM)
400k can b unaffordable if excuses r given at all time.
*
Agree but I never mention anyting below 500k.. I know even lower backet cant afford.. if 400k ppl sure buy for stay.. act if bo flippers.. launcing price on average 400 to 500 landed leh..agree bo..
bearbearwong
post Jan 12 2014, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 12 2014, 01:42 PM)
Market oledi have bad signs. Many owners started to ask auction house to promote their house liao.
*
Man u .. u got wrong bo.. u holding few biji.. few house auction normall.. a great scale of then only signifies when the star go make field report.. of bursting..

I dont care .. just want to sapu 1 affordable for own stay..
gspirit01
post Jan 12 2014, 01:49 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 12 2014, 01:40 PM)
Mana.. behind kaki corner.. that roundabout oppo d ite midah tesco kahh.. wee ka siong alleged helicopter spy bunglow.. or bukit segar...is it near ampang that one dunno wat name.. or suntex there..  or andy lau bunglow there sleep.gif

wrong guess.. enlighten us..
*
It one of those you guessed. Dun want mention name lah. There might be some developer spies here.
aberdeen
post Jan 12 2014, 01:50 PM

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To avoid risk with today mkt, avoid flipping, aim to buy and hold your property, 5 yrs is a good time frame to do so. The risk is minimised and the return could be huge. People will always need a place to live and property will always hold value. History clearly shows that property always has been and always will be a good investment.
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 12 2014, 01:51 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 12 2014, 01:47 PM)
Man u .. u got wrong bo.. u holding few biji.. few house auction normall.. a great scale of then only signifies when the star go make field report.. of bursting..

I dont care .. just want to sapu 1 affordable for own stay..
*
I meant owner auction. Not bank auction. Price vary as owner auction ll onli go higher. Of cos there is a way to do it. Whereas bank auction is diff.
lilzany
post Jan 12 2014, 01:58 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 12 2014, 11:51 AM)
R U serious ? lol

Without flipper every one can get a good property with reasonable price,  many flippers bribe the developers staff to hold on to good property before launch,  causing genuine buyer lack of good choice, this in fact allowed developer jack up the price further,  thus eventually kills the entire economy as people have less nett disposable income to spend on other sectors, this is what happened now in Hong Kong & Singapore,  as if wasn't flippers that destroyed the US & Spain economy during 2008 real estate subprime crisis which still can't solved till today.
*
flippers bribe or developers hold? when u insist on certain units hard enough, it will magically appears as bookable with some moolah

developers are not saints and that is what I'm getting from you guys. the real problem now is developers want the flippers' profits as well citing construction cost blah blah BS. if that is the case then why is so many new developers jumping the bandwagon? nothing better to helps to spur it further when everyone else is coming in as a flipper...to create a fake perception of demand like where all the uncles and aunties supporting the bull run in the stock market right before the crash....

right now as it is, is flipped or die. because even by renting there's no net positive cash flow at all


bearbearwong
post Jan 12 2014, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(lilzany @ Jan 12 2014, 01:58 PM)
flippers bribe or developers hold? when u insist on certain units hard enough, it will magically appears as bookable with some moolah

developers are not saints and that is what I'm getting from you guys. the real problem now is developers want the flippers' profits as well citing construction cost blah blah BS. if that is the case then why is so many new developers jumping the bandwagon? nothing better to helps to spur it further when everyone else is coming in as a flipper...to create a fake perception of demand like where all the uncles and aunties supporting the bull run in the stock market right before the crash....

right now as it is, is flipped or die. because even by renting there's no net positive cash flow at all
*
ya lu u guys are the victim.. luu.. even mah sing core business is plastic lehhmmm.. meaning the construction work most likely sub con s u b con.. under sub con.. indon paid rm 40.. 50 .. 80 perday..

constructions materials got increase but few cents or ringgit.. tell you developers even do their own cement.. no need buy from LAFARGE or YTL cement liao..

their advertisement skill good lahh.. their balloting damm good so deceiving.. but it a prop or commiment for at least half a million like 500k u know.. how come just purchase.. man 35 years lehh.. outskirt sumore.. taking semenyih project and our friendly neightbour hood aka KL South or southxxle ( I propose to put their moto.. thanks to mah sxxing now everyone can own/flip) (formerly thsnks to tony fernaxxxz now everyone can fly)

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 12 2014, 02:11 PM
prody
post Jan 12 2014, 02:11 PM

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QUOTE(jwrx @ Jan 12 2014, 12:23 PM)
this is damn good advice.

I share my stories as well. Im currently staying in a prop which i bought for 1.3mil in PJ back in 2011. That time, price still ok, but can see flippers starting to come in, over the years, the flippers came in force, cos areas like TTDI/DJ etc became too expensive, prices creep to 2mil....then 2.2mil...then 2.5mil. And this in turn attracted even more flippers to my area.

Now..its 2014, just 3 short years since i bought my house. The asking price is now 2.6-2.8mil for unreno, reno is asking for 3.2-3.3mil NO ONE IS BUYING...i count 6 props for sale within 1 km of my house that has been on market minimum of 6 months, 2 have passed 1 year. These flippers must be crying every month, cos its not a rentable area, ppl buy to stay only

at 2.8mil for a house, it makes more sense to put your market in klse, and just rent the damn place. i still see a few units being renoed to flip in my area..good luck to them. Malaysian prop market wont crash, but it will stagnant, and ppl will start lowering thier prices when they cant hold any longer, just have to wait and pick your jewels
*
Not surprised nobody is buying. If property was worth 1.3m in 2011, the value according to some people could be as low as 800k.

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