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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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SUSjolokia
post Jan 13 2014, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 13 2014, 05:11 PM)
There is likely to be a shortage of supply of lower-end housing (e.g. $200-300k RM condominium) and buyers are desperate.

IMHO, he is under some pressure to get an affordable housing to move on to the next stage of life (marriage).

Flippers share risks with developers by taking units off their hands, but most of the time, they jack up prices unnecessarily.  However they are more of a symptom of the problematic housing system issue rather than the cause of it.  The PR1MA and whatever schemes are not very transparent and very slow in rolling out low to medium cost housing.  Flippers came in to scoop up the good units from private developers, knowing that the pent-up demand will push prices further and ensure future buyers.  By allowing the developers to buy up huge tracts of land, the government has effectively lost control over the housing supply.
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There is "No" supply of 200-300K new condo in KV main as far as i see.. sigh

Your personal vendetta again him is making u look like a sour plum at time. laugh.gif

U seem like finding every Good Excuse for damage control over Flipper, making them Hero out of Zero.. cool2.gif
Banting_AE86
post Jan 13 2014, 05:36 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 13 2014, 02:02 PM)
one ting SURE government also aware the price is  flipped over too extreme.. what say you???
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The government I know past 3 decade was never ever admin wrong doing or care about citizen.
The only time government maybe tell/do something is either in deep shit or coffer dried.
I dam salute to Zeti because she can implement chop chop to RE where so many big political shark and royal family involved. This either bolehland really need rescue from deep shit or Zeti really so powerful to make buaya2 buy her idea to prevent bolehland bank from maybe fxxxxp.
My 0.2 cents.

icemanfx
post Jan 13 2014, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Jan 13 2014, 05:21 PM)
Thats a matter of personal taste, not value.

Although street food is readily available in Malaysia for between RM6-10 for a meal (roughly), you can buy sandwiches or kebabs at a convenience stall for Euros 3-4.00.
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user posted image

This cost Euro 5 only thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 13 2014, 05:43 PM
TScybermaster98
post Jan 13 2014, 05:40 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 13 2014, 04:38 PM)
Daily necessities and housing are not included yet.  They should be cheaper in Malaysia.
Do u know the meaning of 'purchasing power'? Let me give u a tiny example (which doesnt mean a generalisation of course but just for info). You can get a really good roast beef sandwich at Tesco Express, London for just 99 pence. You can also get a kilo of oranges in Frankfurt for E$2.50 and a kilo of potatoes for E$ 1.50. MInd you Frankfurt was the most (if not among) the most expensive cities in Germany.

What can you get for that price in Malaysia?

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Jan 13 2014, 05:48 PM
BTimes
post Jan 13 2014, 06:19 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 13 2014, 05:30 PM)
There is "No" supply of 200-300K new condo in KV main as far as i see.. sigh

Your personal vendetta again him is making u look like a sour plum at time.  laugh.gif

U seem like finding every Good Excuse for damage control over Flipper, making them Hero out of Zero..  cool2.gif
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Haha, I have nothing against him but I thought it was the reverse as he was always looking out for me as he mistakenly thought I was a flipper. Flippers are high risk takers, and high risk gives high returns, but it could also mean bankruptcy if the bet fails.
jwrx
post Jan 13 2014, 06:21 PM

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Broadly speaking,

Its cheaper to survive in malaysia vs european countries because of
- cheap basic necessities
- tropical weather (no need heating bills, no need winter gear to survive)
- cheap healthcare (rm1 at GH)

Its easier to live COMFORTABLY in European countries because of much higher Purchasing power. If you are on minimum wage, or middle class, you life would be alot better in UK/Germany/Italy etc. A fresh graduate can buy almost anything he wants on his first months salary, a years salary would easily get him a very nice car.

jwrx
post Jan 13 2014, 06:21 PM

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Broadly speaking,

Its cheaper to survive in malaysia vs european countries because of
- cheap basic necessities
- tropical weather (no need heating bills, no need winter gear to survive)
- cheap healthcare (rm1 at GH)

Its easier to live COMFORTABLY in European countries because of much higher Purchasing power. If you are on minimum wage, or middle class, you life would be alot better in UK/Germany/Italy etc. A fresh graduate can buy almost anything he wants on his first months salary, a years salary would easily get him a very nice car.

BTimes
post Jan 13 2014, 06:24 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jan 13 2014, 05:40 PM)
Do u know the meaning of 'purchasing power'? Let me give u a tiny example (which doesnt mean a generalisation of course but just for info). You can get a really good roast beef sandwich at Tesco Express, London for just 99 pence. You can also get a kilo of oranges in Frankfurt for E$2.50 and a kilo of potatoes for E$ 1.50. MInd you Frankfurt was the most (if not among) the most expensive cities in Germany.

What can you get for that price in Malaysia?
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Beef, orange and potatoes are not really native to Malaysia, but are commonly produced in Europe. This explains the price disparity.
BTimes
post Jan 13 2014, 06:27 PM

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Expats in KL agree that Malaysia is the third best country to retire

KUALA LUMPUR - Vive Le Malaise! Kuala Lumpur expatriates are giving the thumbs-up to InternationalLiving.com's annual Global Retirement Index 2014, which ranked Malaysia as the third best country to retire in, after Ecuador and Panama.

http://news.asiaone.com/news/malaysia/expa...-country-retire

This article sums up the cost of living in Malaysia versus elsewhere.
Showtime747
post Jan 13 2014, 07:04 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 13 2014, 06:27 PM)
Expats in KL agree that Malaysia is the third best country to retire

KUALA LUMPUR - Vive Le Malaise! Kuala Lumpur expatriates are giving the thumbs-up to InternationalLiving.com's annual Global Retirement Index 2014, which ranked Malaysia as the third best country to retire in, after Ecuador and Panama.

http://news.asiaone.com/news/malaysia/expa...-country-retire

This article sums up the cost of living in Malaysia versus elsewhere.
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I like your way of participation in a discussion thumbup.gif
bearbearwong
post Jan 13 2014, 07:17 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 13 2014, 07:04 PM)
I like your way of participation in a discussion  thumbup.gif
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Okok BBB mode mature area only.. outskirt KL unlikely expats.. hmm.. generally.. the 1 million bar is preety much intact.. unless mature areas.. TTDI mont kiara.. areas..u mean rental yeilds.. or worse 2014.. property going to all hit 1 million mostly.. so buy 750k prop wait and can sell to expats..

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 13 2014, 07:25 PM
gspirit01
post Jan 13 2014, 07:42 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 13 2014, 06:27 PM)
Expats in KL agree that Malaysia is the third best country to retire

KUALA LUMPUR - Vive Le Malaise! Kuala Lumpur expatriates are giving the thumbs-up to InternationalLiving.com's annual Global Retirement Index 2014, which ranked Malaysia as the third best country to retire in, after Ecuador and Panama.

http://news.asiaone.com/news/malaysia/expa...-country-retire

This article sums up the cost of living in Malaysia versus elsewhere.
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European or US salaries x 2 and expenses by 1/3, this is how much the expat that I knew made in Malaysia. Is this the nice place to live, oh yeah!
cranx
post Jan 13 2014, 07:45 PM

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bearbearwong, from what you wrote i think you do not own a house yet.
why educate everyone so much? .. isn't it better to stay quiet, more and more people buy buy buy, bubble burst faster mah.. tongue.gif
cranx
post Jan 13 2014, 07:54 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jan 13 2014, 12:44 PM)
Sharing what I did last night.  Used data from NAPIC. I am not responsible for the accuracy of the data here or their interpretation.

[attachmentid=3813478]

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Asking myself, is line B2 the new brother of A2?

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In the 1998 crash, tell-tale sign was the high rise price index which declined 2 years before others. Do not see that pattern now. In fact, high rise index has increased the most (39%) among others over the last 3 years.

All  Tce  HR  SD  DT  ==> 28%  28%  39%  24%  26%

Did we really see this higher jump in HR price  in the market from 2010-2012?

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The decline in 2008 was less than I expected (I expected >30%). The total drops over 2008 & 2009 were:

-12% -8% -10% -20% -13%

Biggest one was the SD sector.

If the relationship between the index and the actual price is linear, then the price drop was not that much, less than 20% in the 2 years.
I know history does not repeat itself down to the seconds but some awareness should be helpful.

If you see some other things in the 2 graphs, please share.

And also, if you have 2013 house price index data, please share as well. I am very interested to know whether the index in 2013 has started to decline like in 1997. Then more bad news to come!

Cheerio.
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Interesting analysis but there should not be a direct comparison for the 2 period.
Speculation pre 97/98 crisis is more on stock market, these days properties.


gspirit01
post Jan 13 2014, 08:01 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 13 2014, 07:54 PM)
Interesting analysis but there should not be a direct comparison for the 2 period.
Speculation pre 97/98 crisis is more on stock market, these days properties.
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Implying more severe fall ?

Showtime747
post Jan 13 2014, 08:23 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 13 2014, 07:54 PM)
Interesting analysis but there should not be a direct comparison for the 2 period.
Speculation pre 97/98 crisis is more on stock market, these days properties.
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97/98 crisis is not only on stock market but a financial crisis where we have credit crunch. Liquidity is extremely tight that caused interest to shoot up. All types of loans were affected and bank cut loss by calling up the loans. Those cannot pay will have their securitised assets auction off.

Now we have the stupid Fed printing money and export liquidity to all over the world. There is no liquidity problem. World/regional financial crisis is not in sight at least for the short term
cranx
post Jan 13 2014, 08:31 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 13 2014, 08:01 PM)
Implying more severe fall ?
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I dont dare to imply anything, just that we are not really creating wealth through proper value added channels. (production, exports, services, research etc)

Creation of wealth basically is through construction, mega white elephant projects, piling up loan upon bigger sum of loan within a very short period of time. Insiders, early birds and big time developers will reap the rewards, but when critical mass sets in... (eg young speculators, retirees betting their life savings on properties, new start ups developers all joining the game) price reaches unaffordable levels, it is going to get nasty.

if i were to predict anything, i would say within the near future:

1) certain new developers will go bust, number of developers will reduce.
2) many investors will buy into abandoned projects and cry foul.
3) number of bankruptcies will rise (rate of increase in proportion with the sudden spike of properties price)

whether or not this will cause the bubble burst is yet to be seen.
zephyrus9999
post Jan 13 2014, 08:46 PM

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the mastermind behind our government measures curbing speculation comes from 1 of the PWC consultant if im not mistaken hahaha.. Its a good measure to curb short selling. The mood for property investment definitely tone down and turning into a long term one, which is healthy. Anything rises up too fast always have a higher chance to crash. Should government did not take up these measures, price continue skyrocket through these upcoming years and definitely will have strong corrections. ~5% appreciation is fair and safe enough. But 20+% is dangerous
gspirit01
post Jan 13 2014, 08:46 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 13 2014, 08:31 PM)

1) certain new developers will go bust, number of developers will reduce.
2) many investors will buy into abandoned projects and cry foul.
3) number of bankruptcies will rise (rate of increase in proportion with the sudden spike of properties price)

whether or not this will cause the bubble burst is yet to be seen.
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If this happens, bubble will sure burst!

Developers go burst --> completed units not sold is lelong ---> price sharply down ---> nearby property value
affected ---> nearby property price down ---> speculators with units around the area hold units with lower values ----> speculators can't sell ---> speculators' units lelong ---> ..... ---> bubble burst.

It is a chain of effects. Financial events are seldom isolated. One thing leads to another and another
Wiredx
post Jan 13 2014, 09:09 PM

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And they happen quickly ^

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