Here are my contribution to the forum. If you are buying property based on loan this year, my calcs are like this:

1 yr breakeven price: +10%
2 yr breakeven price: +15%
3 yr breakeven price: +21%

(Tis exclude rental income)
For high end prop, end of games!

U r welcome. I am very concern abt this as i m very closedly related to development market. For me this is my rice bowl. As a lot of news i personally heard is not good.

5% at 80% loan for 30yr

Haha, I read this some where that this is another sign of speculation peak: people feel that they are richer, although they might not have sold their assets with gain. They spend more generously on luxious items.

Haha, we r all Marks becos we r still in it. Smart money(land owner) sells to institution investor(developer or agent), institution sells to Marks(u and me). The purpose of the game is to trap u. Then, our money transfer to their account. Even developers sells to developers. Just like klci, foreign fund keep pulling out, and our index keep going up.

You are very welcome !

I guess nobody will know the exact time. Every Mark is watching another Mark, with legs ready to run to the door. Matter of fact, that is why many of us are here: to gauge when the time is or whether it is in fact coming.

If u believe in George Soros's Reflexivity theory (too abstract that I only understand abit after few time readings), the trend has already started! I knew from my earlier experience when my Iris plunged 1 days after I bought them. Selling immediately has never crossed my mind. After I am grown a bit, I realised that, at that time, selling immediately means that I have to admit I have made a big mistake a day earlier. And my earlier decision is not made in a short time. To admit my carefully made decision is a mistake after only a short time, it was (or is still) beyond my brain's abilities to accept! Everybody has gambling nature in him/her. This is required for survivor.

My observation is that, money has already flowed and reached stock market. Many may not realised that this is a Hidden War! Between rich and not-so-rich, between countries via credits and currencies. God bless us all.

QUOTE(zonefinder @ Nov 22 2013, 05:35 PM)
Aiyah, don't frighten folks like that lah icon_rolleyes.gif Let me tell you a bit of my personal experience. I was in Spore in mid 90s. At that time, property there as booming and my contemporaries there never experienced a downturn in property prices ...ever, since independence. Same sentiments..pty prices will never go down...
I bought a condo in 96 close to peak in the market. Market corrected big time the next year in 1997. My condo dropped 25% and stayed at that level for about 6-7 years. Balls oso dropped lah but I held. Prices came back big time in 2005. Sold end 2005 with profit of 60%. Point I'm trying to make here is that if you have holding power and a medium to long term investor or for own use, properties is the best investment out there. cool2.gif

Do u think it is ok ? Maybe somebody can study this:

https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2959260

This is one of the biggest untold secret of capitalism!

Anybody comments ? I wish that somebody can pls point out the flaws of my logic or model. Only then I can see whether I am on the right track or not.

I like the Minolta in the Fennel, not only that he/she is tenacious, he can give some good points!

It does have reasons/catalysts for driving price up. For investment or own stay ? Anyone has courage & bullet ? Hot place or not may not be so important now. It is just whether u have the gut. Fear and greed always come together. Your decision will depend on which wins.

I do have one or two people around me having to resort to renovating their unit to hope to rent out. I thought it is just isolated cases. Obviously, it is not. Maybe you and I are just a small sub-group? Anybody else have friends or families having the same situation ? This maybe a chance to gain more concrete info ?

The question now is not whether waiting for the price to come down or not, it is whether property investment is still profitable for the next many years to come . Nobody wants to be the victim of bull trap. Frankly speaking, I don't think many will have the courage to pick up a falling knife. That is why many of us belong to the 95% group, and not the 5%.

It is a vicious cycle. Agreed. So, when it is a cycle, it is the turn that make it vicious. When will it turn and when should you jump ship is a million/billion question. Aren't we all here to gain some insight ?

haha. You may just get an answer that will save/make u millions! Isn't this good enough a return for you ? I think for you, decision/opinion has been made. Salute to a brave one!

Do you know any real life cases ?

I am actually not so worried, just considering my next move. Worry also no use. Better take action (if to offload) or don't take action (If to buy)!

I am tracking a few properties (subsales) on propwall and iproperties. Some are dropping a bit. Some, nobody buys, still raise price. Propwall has better price for now.

How about you, do you know any real cases around you ?

What I intend to do here is actually to gauge the real picture, and everyone here benefits. Let's do a good deed. All of us may have changed somebody's destiny!

Haha, to be frank, I am trying to be the detective. When thing happens, I wish I see and run first and brag about it to others. Otherwise if I got buried under the avalanche like others, I hv to shut my mouth and bend my head

In fact, I hv a relative who is an property agent. He said, i hv house, I hv customer, but I hv no sales. Either price can't match or customer can't get loan. After talking to him, I said "wah! Being agent is taugh!" I will pay for his drink any time.

Haha, I saw the word "were"!

I think the customers didn't demand for it. At good times, agents r bz making money with flippers. At bad times, they r not agent anymore.

I like this one.

With dibs gone, rpgt, few units on hands, loan difficult to get, many people's affordability is not better than banglas. Demand ?