The q3 data showed declines in kl areas. But for selangor, johor and penang, there were still big growths. But, q3 is until 30/09/2013. The effect of the new rulings are not yet captured and won't be clear until q1 2014 result is out. The q3 data just showed that the previous attempt to cool down the prop market has failed. In q3 2013, the prop price in KL has been too expensive, investors were exiting KL and move to more affordable areas like selangor and penang.

For johor, loads of foreign investors and local investors were flooding the johor market. The transactions skyrocketed in q3.

My feelings from these data that the market activities were driven by investors, not homeowner.

This post has been edited by gspirit01: Jan 13 2014, 02:10 PM

Prediction.. hmm the predictions dunno will fit today or since government is keen to do HOUSE CLEANING.. what say you.. since johor was slaughter in cold blood.. some even has yet to to be completed...hmm investors/flippers take ur chances..
The governments tool are bank negara(increase interest on housing loan) and the state ( 1 million bar no consent)
one ting SURE government also aware the price is flipped over too extreme.. what say you???

AiYA forget something dii.. RPGT also naik 30 percent lehh.. u say government mean or not.. I think they are very serious lehhh

Many thanks.

I thought the annual index is the average of the 4 quarters but my average value is not the same as what they have quoted for 2012. Do you know how to get the annual value using the Q values?

Thanks.

P/S Looking at the 2013 Q values (which are larger than 2012), I don't think then it is an mirror image of 1998. Let us wait for 2014 data then.

Top Property Developers on outlook for 2014 - ‘Opportunities in a challenging environment’....another interesting article from the Edge

http://www.theedgeproperty.com/news-a-view...vironment-.html

Most of the developers are optimistic, believe that inflationary pressure will push prices up....views maybe bias..you have to judge yourself...

For the NAPIC data, the annual index is just the Q1 index for each year.

EDIT - sorry I saw wrong. Hmmm, still looking how they derive.

EDIT 2 - I think they are likely calculating the annual index based on the annual average house price. This means you cannot derive the annual index from the quarterly without knowing the volume of transaction for each quarter.

This post has been edited by Balrog: Jan 13 2014, 02:42 PM

There is actually one prediction you can make because of this factor - "government is keen to do HOUSE CLEANING".

That prediction is - NO UPSIDE, for at least a few years.

Say the current range of measures does not at minimum cause house price to stagnate, then next year will have more measures (stricter LTV, seller stamp duty, increased stamp duty etc). We have already seen this behaviour from the governments of Sg and HK. And for Malaysia, this is actually the second round of cooling already.

See for example, Singapore cooling measures, the latest is the 8th round already - http://www.ezproperty.sg/singapore-property-cooling-measures.

This post has been edited by Balrog: Jan 13 2014, 02:54 PM

Thanks for sharing.

Mostly developer talk as usual. Some are meant to be misleading. But most of them are cautious and implied that high ends more than 1 mils are over.

Thanks for sharing.

Looking at the rules, No wonder the sg prop agents said that there is zero speculation in prop now in sg.

No upside or price stagnation means flippers are incurring loan interest and negative cash flow. If prolonged, many are unlikely to sustain.

A slight diversion to compare taxation in Germany vs Malaysia:

If u earn E$60,000 per annum (5K per month) in Germany, the total amount of tax you need to pay is E$ 14,650 or 24%. This includes the following taxes:

1) Income tax
2) Solidarity tax (to help rebuild East Germany)

If u earn >E$52,000 per year, your company must pay 50% your monthly private medical insurance premium up to a max of E$ 315 per month. You pay the balance.

So if ure earning E$5,000 per month, the net salary u will receive after all tax, health insurance and pension fund deductions will be E$ 3,330.

If u compare with a Malaysian earning RM5K per month, your net salary you receive(after deductions) will be RM4,243 per month. But from this amount, you need to pay RM 600 per month for health insurance (to get the same coverage as a German). So after this deduction, you get RM 3,640 in your pocket.

So if you take into account salary comparisons with taxes, yes Germans will pay more. But for a difference of 310 per month (take currency conversion out of the picture since ure not a tourist), Germans get:

1) Cars priced about 50% cheaper with more efficient engines
2) Higher grade petrol at 30% cheaper
3) Toll free highways
4) World class education system
5) Higher levels of personal safety
6) Better quality of life in general
7) Higher purchasing power

So tell me, are all those stories that the Malaysian Gov told us all these years about our supposedly lower cost of living, really true?

Germany VAT at 17% & reduced VAT at 7% for things like food, books, medical, transport, newspaper & etc

In Germany income tax also difference for Single, Married, Single Parent,
Married people pay less tax compare to Single. ..lol

Daily necessities and housing are not included yet. They should be cheaper in Malaysia.

many years ago, "politicians" always say malaysia car is expensive but house is CHEAP! Now ..?

If on parity, it is definitely more expensive in Malaysia

When I was in the different cities in Germany for work, everyday items were definitely more expensive than Malaysia. $1RM in Malaysia can buy more things than $1 Euro.

Below is a rough comparison of cost of living in Germany and Malaysia:
http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compa...city2=Frankfurt

Believe we are comparing on parity, KL is definitely a lot more expensive and poor in quality

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 13 2014, 05:05 PM

There is likely to be a shortage of supply of lower-end housing (e.g. $200-300k RM condominium) and buyers are desperate.

IMHO, he is under some pressure to get an affordable housing to move on to the next stage of life (marriage).

Flippers share risks with developers by taking units off their hands, but most of the time, they jack up prices unnecessarily. However they are more of a symptom of the problematic housing system issue rather than the cause of it. The PR1MA and whatever schemes are not very transparent and very slow in rolling out low to medium cost housing. Flippers came in to scoop up the good units from private developers, knowing that the pent-up demand will push prices further and ensure future buyers. By allowing the developers to buy up huge tracts of land, the government has effectively lost control over the housing supply.

I'm not too sure. I enjoy Asian food in Malaysia more than western food in Germany.

Thats a matter of personal taste, not value.

Although street food is readily available in Malaysia for between RM6-10 for a meal (roughly), you can buy sandwiches or kebabs at a convenience stall for Euros 3-4.00.