QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Aug 2 2013, 12:20 PM)
If money not enough, just focus 1 thing at one time will do.
A lot of people wasting too much time just for research and research. Every field can make money and every field can also send you to hell. Just need to focus
P/s : For those who has at least 5 mil cash in hand, you can do research, research and research, diversify yr portfolio

Haha, but research is fun! My research has led me to the conclusion that the timing of bubble bursts in asset markets are inherently unpredictable by the layperson, and I look on with bemusement on much of the discussion here about how to predict with a crash with certainty. I felt that Singapore's property bubble ought to have burst in 2008/9, and I organised my finances around that happening, but it didn't. The problem was that I failed to predict the success of the QE experiment in containing the financial crisis, and in flooding safe havens like Singapore with unlimited amounts of cheap liquidity such that mortgage rates were half that of inflation. Similarly today, I still have no idea what impact Abenomics is going to have on us, i.e. whether it can cancel out QE tapering, whether and how other countries like China will respond etc. I also have no idea how much of our RM 433B in reserves BNM will be willing to burn to save homebuyers in the event of an impending crash. At the end, due to my limited intellect, all I can do is try to work around the risk of a crash, and not bet everything on it.
Stock is not necessarily more dangerous than property. The risks are just different, and it's actually easier to hold on to stock than property in a crash because you don't have monthly payment commitments and an illiquid asset that cannot be converted into cash. In 97, the equities market collapsed but not the residential property market. This is easily explained by the fact that the AFC was caused by excessive corporate leverage, leading profitable companies to become unprofitable when debt payment obligations are magnified by a collapsing currency and an increasing interest rate. On the other hand, household debt was low and prices of housing were reasonable relative to fundamentals. Follow the debt, I say, and you'll find where your risks lie.
In any event, even if stagnation is more likely, the risk of an unexpected crash happening is very real and very significant, but too many people like to pretend that this risk does not exist. Due to high leverage and exposure to nothing but property, many out there will not survive a crash. Currently, the biggest risk factor to overleveraged households is the outflow of hot money, leading to a decrease in the value of the Ringgit, and an increase in inflation leading to pressure on the part of BNM to raise interest rates to protect the currency and to manage inflation. If you trace back my earlier posts back in V6 and V7 I hypothesised that the property booms happening simultaneously across emerging markets with little relationship with each other appears to be a symptom of the policy responses in developed countries to the global crisis leading to huge swathes of hot money flooding the region, and is not really caused by domestic factors. This hot money is transient, and won't last forever. If and when QE reverses, so will the hot money and our fortunes. Currently, we are already seeing a drastic weakening in the MYR due to an outflow of hot money. Personally, I found this weakening a bit of an overreaction, as tapering has not even started yet! I'm waiting for a correction before I continue moving my MYR out into USD assets (As I've been doing for more than a year

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