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 V12 - Property prices discussion, For non "UUU" and "DDD" campers only...

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SUSUFO-ET
post Aug 2 2013, 12:20 PM

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If money not enough, just focus 1 thing at one time will do.
A lot of people wasting too much time just for research and research. Every field can make money and every field can also send you to hell. Just need to focus
P/s : For those who has at least 5 mil cash in hand, you can do research, research and research, diversify yr portfolio laugh.gif

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Aug 2 2013, 12:26 PM
accetera
post Aug 2 2013, 01:17 PM

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Probably Malaysians never learn to save money. They only spend... and take more loan.

by jason_osw in remix 2 thread.

user posted image

This post has been edited by accetera: Aug 2 2013, 01:18 PM
kidmad
post Aug 2 2013, 01:39 PM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Aug 2 2013, 12:11 PM)
Compare to property market, those who bought in 2008, 99% would have made 200%-300% margin, very easily. Don't need to pick and choose, simply taruk also win.

But the same cannot be said in 2013, I admit. So do the stock market.

It is the choice of an investor who favour stock or property. I favour more to property, and less to stock. Not saying stock is not good, it give good returns too. But property has made way way more money than stock for me. Maybe I am unlucky to pick some stocks which didn't move as much. For one, I didn't pick Padini  cry.gif
*
bro those invested in gold.... by now already lau sai...
kidmad
post Aug 2 2013, 01:40 PM

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what is the cheapest one? seems like all sold out except for the bigger units...
TSkochin
post Aug 2 2013, 02:35 PM

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QUOTE(Nepo @ Aug 2 2013, 08:15 AM)
It depends on timing.

Let's recall:-
In Year 2008, Padini @ RM0.28 per share (share split+Bonus issues)
Five years later (1/8/2013) Padini @ RM 1.77

Return= 1.77-0.29/5 years = 100% p.a.
ICap biz a close ended company bought Padini 22,700,000 shares (include shares split + Bonus issues) @ 0.28 in Year 2008 and hold until Year 2012 (not sure whether sell in Year 2013)
Who is the rich?
The rich is the one:-
1). Ability to select right stocks/properties/investment
2). Correct timing
3). Availability of capital
4). Luck

For normal persons who like to become rich, the first to do is to accumulate his capital.
*
good sharing.
let's take a look at property as an example.
the zest.
launch circa 2008/2009.
launch price approx RM200psf.
say 1100sf apt at RM240k.
DP = RM24k
fast forward to now circa RM460psf. So approx RM506k.
take gross profit = approx rm266k / RM24k (vested capital)
1108% over 5 years
= 222% p.a.

not sure whether the above calculation is right or not.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 2 2013, 02:42 PM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Aug 2 2013, 12:11 PM)
Compare to property market, those who bought in 2008, 99% would have made 200%-300% margin, very easily. Don't need to pick and choose, simply taruk also win.

But the same cannot be said in 2013, I admit. So do the stock market.

It is the choice of an investor who favour stock or property. I favour more to property, and less to stock. Not saying stock is not good, it give good returns too. But property has made way way more money than stock for me. Maybe I am unlucky to pick some stocks which didn't move as much. For one, I didn't pick Padini  cry.gif
*
Yes, that is what i meant by somebody who invest in stocks and properties, i heard that they gain on both portfolios, or like you where gain on property only but no gain on stocks. I never heard of somebody who invests in both portfolio where he gain from stocks but dont gain anything from property. Never heard of such thing happen to anybody.

Then if the doomsday prophecy from the down camp comes true, u are screwed either in stocks or properties i guess, but stocks will hurt much more.
EddyLB
post Aug 2 2013, 02:51 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 01:39 PM)
bro those invested in gold.... by now already lau sai...
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laugh.gif

Depends on timing. If went in only in end 2011, and not out by now, sure lau sai

I have some % in gold. Although my average price over 20-30 years is low, but in % return wise, no fight with property and stock market. I think gold return is only on par with FD rate.
Rooney1985
post Aug 2 2013, 02:54 PM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Aug 2 2013, 02:51 PM)
laugh.gif 

Depends on timing. If went in only in end 2011, and not out by now, sure lau sai

I have some % in gold. Although my average price over 20-30 years is low, but in % return wise, no fight with property and stock market. I think gold return is only on par with FD rate.
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More like chiak sai... tongue.gif
EddyLB
post Aug 2 2013, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Aug 2 2013, 02:35 PM)
good sharing.
let's take a look at property as an example.
the zest.
launch circa 2008/2009.
launch price approx RM200psf.
say 1100sf apt at RM240k.
DP = RM24k
fast forward to now circa RM460psf. So approx RM506k.
take gross profit = approx rm266k / RM24k (vested capital)
1108% over 5 years
= 222% p.a.

not sure whether the above calculation is right or not.
*
thumbup.gif

But chance of a lifetime of property boom may not happen again. Slow appreciation more likely in future, but doubling of value in short 5 years very hard already
EddyLB
post Aug 2 2013, 03:07 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 2 2013, 02:42 PM)
Yes, that is what i meant by somebody who invest in stocks and properties, i heard that they gain on both portfolios, or like you where gain on property only but no gain on stocks. I never heard of somebody who invests in both portfolio where he gain from stocks but dont gain anything from property. Never heard of such thing happen to anybody.

Then if the doomsday prophecy from the down camp comes true, u are screwed either in stocks or properties i guess, but stocks will hurt much more.
*
My stock gave decent returns actually. How not to gain some money when index went up to as high as 1800 ? laugh.gif Even now 1700+ is just a notch from historical high, so those very much into stock are still bullish. As compare to property market now it start to become bearish. So I can understand those compare stock vs property has some preference to stock now

Yea in malaysian context, stock did fall from 1200 to 600 points from July - Dec 1997, and further down to 200+. But property market I did not hear a 50% price fall in short 1/2 year. In terms of risk, stock is higher than property, based on history of this country. Property is very steady in comparison

This post has been edited by EddyLB: Aug 2 2013, 03:28 PM
EddyLB
post Aug 2 2013, 03:09 PM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 2 2013, 02:54 PM)
More like chiak sai...  tongue.gif
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Agree laugh.gif Cannot see direction. No fun in gold....
Rooney1985
post Aug 2 2013, 03:11 PM

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http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/ma...rs-exaggerated/

Whats gonna happen when all this hot money vanishes? G better have some spectacular fiscal plan to boost productivity/ growth... I have a feeling, someone is gonna ask the rakyat for ideas very soon... biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Aug 2 2013, 03:17 PM
TSkochin
post Aug 2 2013, 03:30 PM

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am a believer that stock returns are much better and higher than properties.
more liquid too.

but one very important thing to consider.
risk is very much higher.

the padini example quoted is one of those rare stocks that gave extremely well returns.
similiarly to PBB reinvestment story that THP tells shareholders every year.

nevertheless, we would always see extreme cases in all sort of investment. but how to consistently sustain the momentum of doing well everytime, all the time?
agentdiary
post Aug 2 2013, 03:32 PM

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hahaha, the article sound like a mouth piece for govt.

BNM intervene a lot past few days. how much nobody know at this moment, but judging from last month milder storm, nearly 3b has injected. so, this round should be bigger. The credit crunch is the aftereffect from recent China policy. What to do? Our economy is too much dependence on China now. it sneeze we get cold.

i am not a fan of conspiracy but I still incline to think the recent diesel shortage has something to do with fund outflow (or MGS maturity). it needs real skill to cook 2 pots with just 1 cover.



QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 2 2013, 03:11 PM)
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/ma...rs-exaggerated/

Whats gonna happen when all this hot money vanishes? G better have some spectacular fiscal plan to boost productivity/ growth... I have a feeling, someone is gonna ask the rakyat for ideas very soon...  biggrin.gif
*
Anon_1986
post Aug 2 2013, 03:55 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Aug 2 2013, 12:20 PM)
If money not enough, just focus 1 thing at one time will do.
A lot of people wasting too much time just for research and research. Every field can make money and every field can also send you to hell. Just need to focus
P/s : For those who has at least 5 mil cash in hand, you can do research, research and research, diversify yr portfolio laugh.gif
*
Haha, but research is fun! My research has led me to the conclusion that the timing of bubble bursts in asset markets are inherently unpredictable by the layperson, and I look on with bemusement on much of the discussion here about how to predict with a crash with certainty. I felt that Singapore's property bubble ought to have burst in 2008/9, and I organised my finances around that happening, but it didn't. The problem was that I failed to predict the success of the QE experiment in containing the financial crisis, and in flooding safe havens like Singapore with unlimited amounts of cheap liquidity such that mortgage rates were half that of inflation. Similarly today, I still have no idea what impact Abenomics is going to have on us, i.e. whether it can cancel out QE tapering, whether and how other countries like China will respond etc. I also have no idea how much of our RM 433B in reserves BNM will be willing to burn to save homebuyers in the event of an impending crash. At the end, due to my limited intellect, all I can do is try to work around the risk of a crash, and not bet everything on it.

Stock is not necessarily more dangerous than property. The risks are just different, and it's actually easier to hold on to stock than property in a crash because you don't have monthly payment commitments and an illiquid asset that cannot be converted into cash. In 97, the equities market collapsed but not the residential property market. This is easily explained by the fact that the AFC was caused by excessive corporate leverage, leading profitable companies to become unprofitable when debt payment obligations are magnified by a collapsing currency and an increasing interest rate. On the other hand, household debt was low and prices of housing were reasonable relative to fundamentals. Follow the debt, I say, and you'll find where your risks lie.

In any event, even if stagnation is more likely, the risk of an unexpected crash happening is very real and very significant, but too many people like to pretend that this risk does not exist. Due to high leverage and exposure to nothing but property, many out there will not survive a crash. Currently, the biggest risk factor to overleveraged households is the outflow of hot money, leading to a decrease in the value of the Ringgit, and an increase in inflation leading to pressure on the part of BNM to raise interest rates to protect the currency and to manage inflation. If you trace back my earlier posts back in V6 and V7 I hypothesised that the property booms happening simultaneously across emerging markets with little relationship with each other appears to be a symptom of the policy responses in developed countries to the global crisis leading to huge swathes of hot money flooding the region, and is not really caused by domestic factors. This hot money is transient, and won't last forever. If and when QE reverses, so will the hot money and our fortunes. Currently, we are already seeing a drastic weakening in the MYR due to an outflow of hot money. Personally, I found this weakening a bit of an overreaction, as tapering has not even started yet! I'm waiting for a correction before I continue moving my MYR out into USD assets (As I've been doing for more than a year rclxms.gif )
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 2 2013, 04:21 PM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Aug 2 2013, 03:07 PM)
My stock gave decent returns actually. How not to gain some money when index went up to as high as 1800 ?  laugh.gif Even now 1700+ is just a notch from historical high, so those very much into stock are still bullish. As compare to property market now it start to become bearish. So I can understand those compare stock vs property has some preference to stock now

Yea in malaysian context, stock did fall from 1200 to 600 points from July - Dec 1997, and further down to 200+. But property market I did not hear a 50% price fall in short 1/2 year. In terms of risk, stock is higher than property, based on history of this country. Property is very steady in comparison
*
Exactly my point.
Nomos
post Aug 2 2013, 05:45 PM

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The PM now probably feels he should have lost the GE, in hindsight tongue.gif
Steven83
post Aug 2 2013, 06:06 PM

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http://my.news.yahoo.com/penang-turns-cons...-085100075.html

Please continue to push the property price up. We are now official Spain nation wink.gif

Lets see how our job going to further shrink for construction job to replace.

This post has been edited by Steven83: Aug 2 2013, 06:10 PM
Rooney1985
post Aug 2 2013, 07:04 PM

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QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Aug 2 2013, 03:55 PM)
Haha, but research is fun! My research has led me to the conclusion that the timing of bubble bursts in asset markets are inherently unpredictable by the layperson, and I look on with bemusement on much of the discussion here about how to predict with a crash with certainty. I felt that Singapore's property bubble ought to have burst in 2008/9, and I organised my finances around that happening, but it didn't. The problem was that I failed to predict the success of the QE experiment in containing the financial crisis, and in flooding safe havens like Singapore with unlimited amounts of cheap liquidity such that mortgage rates were half that of inflation. Similarly today, I still have no idea what impact Abenomics is going to have on us, i.e. whether it can cancel out QE tapering, whether and how other countries like China will respond etc. I also have no idea how much of our RM 433B in reserves BNM will be willing to burn to save homebuyers in the event of an impending crash. At the end, due to my limited intellect, all I can do is try to work around the risk of a crash, and not bet everything on it.

Stock is not necessarily more dangerous than property. The risks are just different, and it's actually easier to hold on to stock than property in a crash because you don't have monthly payment commitments and an illiquid asset that cannot be converted into cash. In 97, the equities market collapsed but not the residential property market. This is easily explained by the fact that the AFC was caused by excessive corporate leverage, leading profitable companies to become unprofitable when debt payment obligations are magnified by a collapsing currency and an increasing interest rate. On the other hand, household debt was low and prices of housing were reasonable relative to fundamentals. Follow the debt, I say, and you'll find where your risks lie.

In any event, even if stagnation is more likely, the risk of an unexpected crash happening is very real and very significant, but too many people like to pretend that this risk does not exist. Due to high leverage and exposure to nothing but property, many out there will not survive a crash. Currently, the biggest risk factor to overleveraged households is the outflow of hot money, leading to a decrease in the value of the Ringgit, and an increase in inflation leading to pressure on the part of BNM to raise interest rates to protect the currency and to manage inflation. If you trace back my earlier posts back in V6 and V7 I hypothesised that the property booms happening simultaneously across emerging markets with little relationship with each other appears to be a symptom of the policy responses in developed countries to the global crisis leading to huge swathes of hot money flooding the region, and is not really caused by domestic factors. This hot money is transient, and won't last forever. If and when QE reverses, so will the hot money and our fortunes. Currently, we are already seeing a drastic weakening in the MYR due to an outflow of hot money. Personally, I found this weakening a bit of an overreaction, as tapering has not even started yet! I'm waiting for a correction before I continue moving my MYR out into USD assets (As I've been doing for more than a year  rclxms.gif )
*
Wow... Very long and informative post... Thanks... I just wish to add that the weakening of RM may not necessarily be caused by the tapering of QE but most likely the weakness or should I say relative potential of the economy to provide above average returns... Investors are seeing this and maybe reacting to it by pulling their funds away to other emerging markets as well as the recovering US... Just too many factors indicating a rise in Interest rates I wonder whether those highly leveraged can afford this added stress to their financials and how long can they do it for... May turn very ugly especially if neighbouring economies are more competitive...
AVFAN
post Aug 2 2013, 07:29 PM

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QUOTE(Steven83 @ Aug 2 2013, 06:06 PM)
http://my.news.yahoo.com/penang-turns-cons...-085100075.html

Please continue to push the property price up. We are now official Spain nation wink.gif

Lets see how our job going to further shrink for construction job to replace.
*
to me, this is very bad news. if penang as the bedrock of boland mfg thinks its a goner, tough.

in the old days, sg did that - plough money incl cpf into constr when recession arrives. that actually worked, but they r passed that now, more in to services n trade.

here, gud times, bad times, just build n constr out of trouble. may not work tis time with so much debt overhang. of course, the leakages go on regardless...

very dark days ahead... more so when focus seems to be dogs n canteens....

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 2 2013, 07:30 PM

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