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 V12 - Property prices discussion, For non "UUU" and "DDD" campers only...

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SUSUFO-ET
post Jul 29 2013, 12:53 PM

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QUOTE(moon yuen @ Jul 29 2013, 09:12 AM)
let's said Malaysia property price really do drop (eg. 10% or more),  normally how it takes how many year to pick up back ?? Based on statistics ?

When is out previous property slow down/ crash the most recent one? It take how long to raise back ?
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Unlike stock mkt where you can track the index by technical chart, property is rising and dropping every moment.
Good mkt - 80% up 20% drop
Bad mkt - 20% up 80% drop

Assume average drop 10%, based on my analysis the component shd be like this :-
Commercial shoplot (- 15%)
Factory (- 20%)
Condo / service apt (- 20%)
Landed (0% to - 7%)
Office lot (- 25%)
Empty land (development) (+ 10% to +15%)

Since landed has the biggest transacted volume, it would give a heavier weight to the index.
In the above scenario, 4-6 yrs to rebound

If landed drop 20% (in general), it's a disaster, highrise wd drop 40%-50% already.
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This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jul 29 2013, 12:55 PM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jul 29 2013, 06:29 PM

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QUOTE(ngaisteve1 @ Jul 29 2013, 05:09 PM)
1998/1999?
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Sarcastic one lah
SUSUFO-ET
post Aug 1 2013, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 31 2013, 04:03 PM)
Bro you are right with most of the point but you miss out the most important part about property investment.

Initial investment = RM 60,000
Monthly investment = RM 2262 for 30 years.
Assuming capital gains of 5% per annum for 30 years (unless you have reason to believe equities will underperform property in the long term), and without counting your dividend yield, you will have equities worth RM 1.8 mil at the end of 30 years.


In property the calculation should be
Initial investment = RM 60,000
Monthly investment = RM 2262 for 30 years.
Monthly rental yield = RM1.5k for example
Assuming property price appreciation of average 5% per annum for 30 years, your RM 400,000 property will be worth RM 1.7 mil at the end of 30 years.
With an additional of RM540k from rental collection - that's only without inflation taken into account. What if the rental yield increases as well? And as you see taking RM1.5k is pretty much unrealistic usually those place which cost rm400k would most likely rentable at RM1.8k approx. I'm taking the lowest for this example.
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Agree.
My only concern is the exchange rates :

What will be the exchange rate RM against Sing dollar in 30
years time? Better or worse? Need not to answer, 3 year old boy also know
Holding cash in RM has no future
SUSUFO-ET
post Aug 2 2013, 12:20 PM

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If money not enough, just focus 1 thing at one time will do.
A lot of people wasting too much time just for research and research. Every field can make money and every field can also send you to hell. Just need to focus
P/s : For those who has at least 5 mil cash in hand, you can do research, research and research, diversify yr portfolio laugh.gif

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Aug 2 2013, 12:26 PM
SUSUFO-ET
post Aug 19 2013, 08:41 AM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Aug 19 2013, 12:12 AM)
Pls don't go, we still need you, I like people to predict future, in year 2011 our mr debtismoney predict disaster coming in next 6-12months, nothing happen and he predict again for another next 6-12 months since sept 2012, now is Aug still nothing happen, and he was disappeared when lost money from gold investment, I still remember weeks ago u predict something will happen in the coming next 6 months (feb 13)! Well, I need to see how accurate u are
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Dun worry, If property crash 50% tomorrow, all guru(s) will appear and say "Na, you see! I told you aleli!" biggrin.gif
SUSUFO-ET
post Aug 19 2013, 09:15 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Aug 19 2013, 10:58 AM)
Seriously.... is there a 'guru' predicted 50% crash?.... It sure takes huge courage to speak tat out woh.....  notworthy.gif  notworthy.gif
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He is sleeping with the gold now biggrin.gif zzzz
SUSUFO-ET
post Aug 19 2013, 11:28 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Aug 19 2013, 11:00 PM)
Oh..... U mean somebody in this forum?  unsure.gif
If its this forum then it no big deal..... Many ppl shoot anything they like here.... No responsibilities needed..... No courage needed...... Predict wrongly this year, change a new id comes again next yr......  whistling.gif  whistling.gif
If its public figure, then takes more courage to do it.....  tongue.gif  tongue.gif
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Precisely
In this LYN forum, I hv admitted 3 times in which my predictions were wrong.
I hope that anyone who wants to predict can comply to these criterias. :-
1. When - exact time (Yr / quarter)
2. Magnitude - in %, amount of drop / appreciation or % of ROI
3. Which particular project / area / sector / Taman / condo / developer etc

Predict - monitor - admit the mistake if wrong, izit so difficult? hmm.gif

Mkt will drop... - When roughly? How much?
It is over supply... - How much roughly? (% / units)
Major correction will happen - When? Up or down? Pattern? % correction? Where?

I understand that no one has the crystal ball to see the future, so if there is no guts to admit mistake, pls dun simply say.
cool.gif

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Aug 19 2013, 11:30 PM
SUSUFO-ET
post Aug 20 2013, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Aug 20 2013, 08:56 AM)
Making such detail prediction person I think he/she shld be living in MPH (Mad People Hospital)......  laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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Prediction kena detaillah, otherwise any 3 yr old kid also can say
Goldman backup his argument by mentioning US xx% drop, Japan 70% drop, Spain 50% drop lah bla bla bla, he warned that this will happen to our mkt,
Then I asked :
1. So Malaysia property mkt correction how much %? No answer When? (I remembered he said 2012 4th quarter, later said 2nd quarter 2013)
2. Since you are so "international" living abroad, why not buying those properties (which have dropped 30%-70%)? Why must he wait M'sia property to drop >30% then buy? The truth is he never prepare to buy, never!

Now his gold story really become a Ghost Story liao biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Aug 20 2013, 11:08 AM
SUSUFO-ET
post Aug 20 2013, 11:49 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Aug 20 2013, 11:17 AM)
boss...

prediction is based on the assumption of no major policy changes.

if that Dr predict during that time bubble. ( he also predict no major change of policy in givt, bnm ruling and etc)

if during the period. BNM. govt. changes some rules/policy. So he is entitle to do another prediction again the changes right?
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Why not?
1. No one has the crystal ball, so no one knows the future
2. It is ok to predict with assumptions, if wrong, never mind, admit the mistake and predict again
3. Property mkt is very "localized", it is very hard to calculate the % of drop / rise of a particular area / project. In a single condo, if one is facing the golf course, another facing the highway, you may find that the demand and selling price may vary 10%-20%.
4. Every single moment has certain % properties rise and certain % properties drop, different sector, location, area and project has different curve. Unlike stock mkt, I dun believe 100% property price crash or 100% property price increase.
My take :- KV 20 Good 80 Bad, Iskandar 60 Good 40 Bad, Penang 50 Good 50 Bad
Shd stop buying highrise now, I think only < 10% of the condo (old / new) are good buy.
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post Aug 20 2013, 11:51 AM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 20 2013, 11:31 AM)
Wow... you actually replying them... lol!

Its very simple to ask questions such as drop by how many %, when will it happen, which region, what housing type, etc, etc and the same questions can be asked to the Up campers, such as so how many % appreciate in next 5 years, breakdown by year, region, type, location (and also say make sure you don't get it wrong)... sigh... that's why when they talk have to also put yourself in others shoes... For example... if you don't have government assistance, can you buy two? or only one or none? If you don't have govt assistance, would you have obtain opportunity to go to university? Or end up selling burgers? Its not about attacking someone or anybody... only those that know it is true inside feel defensive... and that's why none of the other up campers supporting because they also know that its the truth and advantage is an advantage whether you admit it or not... So what if you've got a handicap, why so egoistic, stubborn and arrogant? So before talking/ questioning please think and reflect first...

Btw... what's up with the stock market??? jeez...
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Vice versa, apply to all conditions.

SUSUFO-ET
post Aug 20 2013, 09:40 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Aug 20 2013, 12:01 PM)
you still don't see it.

Let said u now take Iskandar 60 Good 40 bad. u said it base on today assupmtion and not much changes.

But, if said. sunndenly govt tomorrow said rpgt 50% on first 2 years purchases and 40% from 3 to 8 years  and all local / foreigner paid stamp duty 30%/50% on 3rd purchases above.  All ltv for 3 rd property / above is 50%

So, can i said your prediction wrong tomorrow? I can't bcs the condition chnages so much.
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Tats why I say "detailed"
1) Status quo - how?
2) If policy A - then how
3) If policy B - then how
4) If totally unsure wat policy will be imposed, then back to 1
Simple
SUSUFO-ET
post Aug 21 2013, 09:09 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 20 2013, 10:08 PM)
Yes just like i said previously, i predict property in KL will crash if an earthquake happens in KL. If not then shoud stay the same. But then at the same time, although i predict this, i really do not want this to happen. Contrast with other people who really rejoices when bad news hits Malaysia. Why? Because he wants to win so badly.
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Ya that shd be.
I must say if one dun prepare to buy property, he will hv thousand excuses to it wink.gif
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post Aug 21 2013, 09:24 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Aug 21 2013, 09:11 AM)
if one work as an agent and earning a living from it also do have a thousand excuses.

another side of coin
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You won't understand agent's job until you join. cool2.gif
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post Aug 21 2013, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Aug 21 2013, 09:35 AM)
brother did you sell your link house in BK? how much the price?
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880K
870K
800K
738K

very early in 2011

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Aug 21 2013, 10:55 AM
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post Aug 21 2013, 10:55 AM

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QUOTE(super911 @ Aug 21 2013, 10:52 AM)
Very soon you will see ppl burn in property.
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Possible. It happen everyday since 1997

Abandoned project - Burn
Delayed project - Burn (PD condos)
Shoplot can't rent out - Burn
Factory lot land settlement - Burn
Land - illegally changed ownership - Burn
Compulsory Acquisition Act - Burn
Tower / condo collapse - Burn
Landslide / Flood - Burn
lynas / Incenerator project - Burn
etc etc

It is indeed quite risky if one dun do a detailed survey.
Fr my experience, at least 10 areas need to be assessed before buying a new / subsale property

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Aug 21 2013, 11:07 AM
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post Aug 21 2013, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Aug 21 2013, 11:00 AM)
KNS you got 4 there
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6 in total, all sold
all share share with buddylah
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post Aug 21 2013, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(super911 @ Aug 21 2013, 11:07 AM)
Frankly, I am not the type of person who wish to see recession or whatsoever. I am a stock market investor and I know how relatively easy to make money in bull market compare to bear market. Anyway, as a matured adult, we have to see things rationally. 60% of the household in Malaysia earn below RM3K. You think the current property market price can sustain?

Foreign funds are flowing out. Currencies depreciated. BNM has no choice but to raise rates in very near future. That's the time pain will be felt by 'investors'. Bear in mind, this is just the start of feeling the pain. Burning will occur when slowdown or recession strike. Most of the people now is taking 30-40 years loan. Do we need that long to see another recession?
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Asian specially Chinese perceives "Real Estate" different fr the Western, real estate is a symbolic of wealth to many Chinese tycoons, they buy and keep for generations
Oversupply already exist, but how much oversupply will lead to bubble burst? No one know

Assuming KV has 100 households,
1. How many supply of houses would we consider bubble? technically we say 101 units, but in reality, does it means that? I may need a house for own stay, another for vacation purpose, 80% of my fren (Chinese) around me plan to buy additional house for their kid(s)
2. How many supply of houses would lead to bubble burst? Everyone has different answer

No one know...

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Aug 21 2013, 11:20 AM
SUSUFO-ET
post Aug 21 2013, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Aug 21 2013, 11:25 AM)
u are very experience property agent.

do you understand what is call elasticity of demand  and do you even hear elasticity of speculative? go read that kaldor book.
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Oh? Economy theory? I know elasticity
I dun read many property books, I think my day in and day out experience would be more effective than those theories. Property is very "localised", if you want to invest a shoplot in Teluk Intan, dun ask me, dun ask Robert Kiyosaki, ask those uncles who stays in Teluk Intan for years will do.
as I said before, there are at least 10 success investment ways to gain wealth, I just need one.
p/s : If I hv time, I will find this book and read

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Aug 21 2013, 11:43 AM
SUSUFO-ET
post Aug 21 2013, 11:33 AM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ Aug 21 2013, 11:29 AM)
Ya lor. we are all FINISHED!!
I think he plays too much Mortal Kombat. Finish Him!!!   tongue.gif
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piang! piang! you finish!
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post Aug 21 2013, 11:48 AM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ Aug 21 2013, 11:43 AM)
Come we invite Tikaram, Zuiko, ManutdGiggs to play Mortal Kombat at Alam Impian. Then we let Tikaram wins. When the screen says "Finish Him", i am sure all of us will be laughing. Lol  tongue.gif
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