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 V12 - Property prices discussion, For non "UUU" and "DDD" campers only...

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AVFAN
post Jul 18 2013, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(tnchsg @ Jul 18 2013, 02:25 PM)
of course you have to find the subsale house which the renovation is suit to your preference. you can't buy a bali style house and want to make over to modern style, it will definitely cost you a lot....
one of the good of buying a subsale house is you can see the present and future development, its future potential rather than listen to what the sales guy talk of the future of the new property.
most important you can have a good sleep since the first day of paying the downpayment. if you buy a new property from an unknown, small property company, you will feel the pain...
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these are the real benefits of buying subsale. wysiwyg.

u can even walk away if you dun like the neighbors!

u can't get all that when buying new.

AVFAN
post Jul 18 2013, 05:25 PM

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QUOTE(katijar @ Jul 18 2013, 05:18 PM)
(吉隆坡17日訊)國內經濟受內需照拂料續保持強勁,通貨膨脹增長溫和不足為患,經濟分析師相信,國家銀行年底前將升息25個基點或0.25%,從3%調高至3.25%。

Interest rate might up .25% to 3.25%, according to analyst.

sos: http://www.chinapress.com.my/node/440811
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bnm just said no change a wk or two ago.

wil be surprised if u turn now.

they actuality shud incr. see how bad the rm is now?

chicken shortage, 24 new lessen to import, people can't get good price chicken to eat for raya.

while bbb to profit from low rates! tongue.gif






AVFAN
post Jul 18 2013, 05:56 PM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Jul 18 2013, 05:40 PM)
Hi guys...

MIDDLE CAMP reporting... M camp is also means Make Money Camp regardless of Up or Down.
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cronies, banks, taxmen, lawyers, agents, suppliers to the industry, correct?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 18 2013, 05:56 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 18 2013, 10:44 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jul 18 2013, 10:18 PM)
欠管理费锁水禁停车 3大疑问待研判
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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interesting iconic case indeed. i tot a new law with more teeth is already in place?

if the "no need to pay" side wins, u bet nobody will pay anymore, esp investors. bye-bye gng, fng, all become ff...
AVFAN
post Jul 19 2013, 10:01 PM

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QUOTE(hazairi @ Jul 19 2013, 09:30 PM)
Latest news today:

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/commentary/...ehold-debt.html

Brief summary:

- household debt is at it's all time high in 2012, 83% of GDP
- income didn't increase
- in Asia, it has been noted that Korea, China and Malaysia are the most leveraged economies in terms of magnitude and growth and hence most vulnerable.

Be prepared for the bubble to burst guys.
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few will bother with this until it all breaks down.

politicians and cronies will be laughing their asses off at the stupidity of us all.

meanwhile, keep dancing, party on... pigss become pigssm? blink.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 19 2013, 10:15 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 29 2013, 06:50 PM

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QUOTE(mIssfROGY @ Jul 29 2013, 06:43 PM)
but if u only have so much money left, will u buy house or buy food to survive?

in the US interest rates almost 0%...but ppl are losing jobs on a daily basis in 2008 and cant service loan, so props of coz go down lo.
U think in Msia if interest rates down to 0% and ppl are losing jobs but props still can sell at 1000sf?? yeah...rich ppl still can buy this no doubt smile.gif
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this has been said umpteen times, but seems nobody cares.

and the rebuttal is always - msia is special, msia is diff, more rich people than poor. many a lot richer than u think, like or imagine (but debt keeps going up like mad, why?). even hawkers and teachers earn 10k pm. banks and oil&gas 30k pm. plus those in sg, shanghai, london, billions in bank accounts ready to buy.

so, how can anyone not have moolah to buy anything? u must be lazy or and negative.

feel like giving up? tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 29 2013, 06:52 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 29 2013, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 29 2013, 06:54 PM)
Then we hav 1998 for us as a benchmark. KLCI went down to just 200++ only but did we hear any property firesales? They were people who lost property due to bankruptcy of course but not because interetst rate increase or interets rate went down.
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think u already know the diff between 1998 and now is additional >rm500billion in debt, private and gomen combined.

world bank, imf, adb have been warning msia there is little room left to play in the event of a crisis with with such debt levels.

well, if u say msia can take it, can take another 500bn, no diff, then there is nothing more to say.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 29 2013, 07:09 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 29 2013, 07:21 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 29 2013, 07:14 PM)
Thats why i said. We still hav epf as a safeguard. I was imagining the cyprus incident happening here. And if it is that bad, out epf that is in trillions, can still save us.
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if it is about epf to save us...

the suspicion is >60% of epf funds already loaned out to bn aligned outfits, i.e. cronies big and small with questionable performance.

if the condo-cow thing is examplary, you can decide how much or what epf can or will do.

one can dispel all this rumurs, but me, i like to err on my side to think there is already enough evidence that epf wun do ziltch except bailing out the greedy in a next crisis.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 29 2013, 07:22 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 30 2013, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(moon yuen @ Jul 30 2013, 10:35 AM)
I m newbie in property.... blush.gif

People suggest government to raise interest rate to reduce speculation...

int rate rise of 0.5-1% won't do much to reduce speculation. incr rpgt back to 30% will.

several new articles here to read on the "bubble" subject:
http://www.kinibiz.com/story/issues/40319/...e-building.html

about int rates, i think gomen is under great pressure to raise rates but that will have big consequences for everything, not just prop. tat's why been resisting. caught between a rock and a hard place.

the trouble now rm is at 15 yr low against sgd, 3 yr low against usd, going lower against many other major curr. gomen debt borrowing costs going higher and higher.
http://www.todayonline.com/business/ringgi...gapore-dollar-0


much of our food, among other essentials, is imported, how can people esp the low to mid income not suffer from skyrocketing food prices if the curr is weak? chicken also become luxury meat. still got money to buy house?
AVFAN
post Jul 30 2013, 06:04 PM

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QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 30 2013, 05:39 PM)
no surprise... reducing exports incl to slowing china, lowest cpo prices, electronics not doing well, no serious interest to incr food production, increasing debt, incr consumption, low interest rates, cont'd money outflow, more cash handouts, bigger leakages than ever, etc. etc...

but build build build, more high rise, more malls, more elephants.

if all that can get better rating, there'll be no poor nation on earth.



this excerpt appears troubling...

The state-run Employees' Provident Fund held 28.8% of Malaysian government securities at end-March 2013. The rising role of non-resident investors points to growing exposure to global investor risk appetite, but Fitch views strengths in Malaysia's external finances as a buffer against volatility. The impact of heightened market tensions on Malaysia's government debt market since June has been mild compared with some regional and rated peers, so far.

Malaysia's credit fundamentals are weak by 'A' range standards. Its average income level of USD10,400 in 2012 was closer to the 'BBB' range median of USD11,300 than the 'A' median of USD18,600. Its overall level of development and standards of governance are also considered weak for its 'A-' rating. Fitch's Banking System Indicator of 'bbb' suggests the standalone strength of Malaysian banks does not weigh on the credit profile. However, Malaysia's high level of private sector leverage is a risk from a credit perspective. Credit to the private sector reached 118% of GDP at end-2012, above the 'A' median 94%. Fitch projects the divergence from the 'A' median will widen out to 2015.


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 30 2013, 06:20 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 31 2013, 11:56 AM

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QUOTE(pobox @ Jul 31 2013, 11:11 AM)
Means the gomen is taking steps to prevent the "crash". No more worry about "crash", right?
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that article is just some fresh comments, probably prompted by yesterday's fitch downgrade.

bursa taking a knock today, rm continues to slide.

will bnm raise rates soon enough?
AVFAN
post Aug 1 2013, 08:20 PM

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QUOTE(Nomos @ Aug 1 2013, 08:04 PM)
To me, real home buyers wouldnt queue up like that, especially for a condo at that price in Sentul which is an area im almost certain many of them havent lived in before. If they were selling DSLs maybe... But these condos? Im not denying the project is attractive. But if these people wanted, they could have bought nice existing condos in the vicinity.
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good tot. and ... wait 4.5 yrs = genuine homebuyers? !!
AVFAN
post Aug 2 2013, 07:29 PM

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QUOTE(Steven83 @ Aug 2 2013, 06:06 PM)
http://my.news.yahoo.com/penang-turns-cons...-085100075.html

Please continue to push the property price up. We are now official Spain nation wink.gif

Lets see how our job going to further shrink for construction job to replace.
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to me, this is very bad news. if penang as the bedrock of boland mfg thinks its a goner, tough.

in the old days, sg did that - plough money incl cpf into constr when recession arrives. that actually worked, but they r passed that now, more in to services n trade.

here, gud times, bad times, just build n constr out of trouble. may not work tis time with so much debt overhang. of course, the leakages go on regardless...

very dark days ahead... more so when focus seems to be dogs n canteens....

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 2 2013, 07:30 PM
AVFAN
post Aug 4 2013, 07:03 PM

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i admit i can't follow a lot of what's written here, so maybe guys like agent diary and anon can help out, thanks.

for those who who keep saying "inflation-gst-tax-weak rm will just keep pushing local prop prices higher, people still buy, dun wait", do read this fresh , very long and complex article and analysis, see if that is consistent with yr beliefs n hopes...

QUOTE
Another side effect from the decrease in the money availability is that it will help push the short term interest rate up. We do not expect to see any credit easing from the government anytime soon as they are serious in reigning in the excessive credit expansion from the past. Due to the past policy on credit easing it resulted in an explosion of household debt which is one of the highest in the region standing at 83% to GDP. The following chart shows Malaysia Loans to Private Sector from July 2011 to May 2013.

As you can see the month of May 2013 tops the chart with the total of MYR 1244470.60 billion loan out to the private which includes the household and business. Hence our Government has no choice but to put a hold on further credit easing and as a result there is less money available for loans.

The decrease in money available in the economy leads to a decrease in investment and spending as the availability of capital becomes more expensive to obtain. Banks which have obligations such as to make available funds for the redemption of Wealth Management products will have no choice but to borrow from the interbank market or KLIBOR (Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offer Rates) which is more expensive or through the issuance of new products. Hence with the difficulty in obtaining finances through the interbank market this will help push the interbank rate higher in the short run. This limiting of access to capital also slows down economic growth as investment decreases.

http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.ph...2#axzz2aznAcibb


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 4 2013, 07:03 PM
AVFAN
post Aug 6 2013, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 6 2013, 08:37 AM)
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busine...ore/766250.html

Hmmm... is this news telling us something about future property prices in bolehland?

biggrin.gif
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it's already sgd1=rm2.55. saying 2.50 is very polite!

if things continue that way with no action, 2.60 is likely by yr end.

sgreans will buy daily and eat daily stuff in johor with a bigger buck but i doubt there are that many wanting to lose in exchange rate and transaction costs despite some appr after 2-3 yrs.
AVFAN
post Aug 6 2013, 10:44 AM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 6 2013, 09:41 AM)
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/08/05/...adds-to-unease/

tsk tsk tsk... boleh land is really boleh land... with everything dropping from currency to trade surplus somehow they can still find the time and focus to give hand-outs... LoL!!!! How typical... Hmmm... wonder how much longer till we adopt India's approach (raise interest rates) maybe by then it might be too little too late...

whistling.gif
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such reports now coming out every week. all bad news - dwindling exports, rising mgs yields, cash handouts - all putting pressure on rates.

when trade surplus becomes deficit, we'll see if bnm will raise rates. perhaps next meeting in sep...
AVFAN
post Aug 8 2013, 12:26 PM

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QUOTE(cockee @ Aug 7 2013, 09:06 AM)
In general all is down except foodcourt.
You can get these info from agencies like euromonitor or mindshare.
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my observation is that is true.

while many proper restuarants do fine on weekends and festive season, they look pretty empty on other days.

foodcourt, hawkers, traditional coffeshops usually good biz.

it is also easy to see some ambitious restaurant charging a little high only to close down soon after.

the sad fact is the wallet is hurting many. just can't splash around as often as before.

if newly committed to a home, this "makan nasi lemak aje" isn't a joke anymore.

and not nasi lemak at paparich but from roadside!! tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2013, 06:29 PM

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QUOTE(chengcheng @ Aug 11 2013, 05:53 PM)
Is it possible to drop so much? I thought Dubai was a heaven... Lots of investors invested in their properties.

None from China? Indonesia?

sad.gif  sad.gif
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dubai had tat, true. but prices are rebounding strongly now.

the point is - do u have the bolas to hold and wait when that happens?! tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 14 2013, 12:38 PM

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QUOTE(cockee @ Aug 14 2013, 12:02 PM)
It is important to look at things in its context.

Property in Malaysia boomed in the past few years. No doubt.
Anyone who purchased anything back in 2008-early 2010 made quick and abnormal profits. We acknowledge.
But economy is dynamic. Strategies that worked 2 years ago might, or not, work now or next year.
When someone are pointing out signs of bubble and its probability of bursting, they are merely interpreting the available data. If you dont understand the info, data and graph, just go learn instead of argue. Even if you understand, doesnt mean u have to agree.
More importantly, not all those pointed to signs of bubble are those who can't afford a home or missed the boat.

From personal experience, I made good money in the past few years from property. But I know economy dynamics will change, thus I balanced my investment portfolio by selling some properties early this year. Yea, that put me in DDD camp.

The way I see it, there is a time for wealth protection, and there is a time for wealth accumulation. My view is 2009-2012 was a period for wealth accumulation from property. From 2013-2018, the game is about wealth protection.
It's like u've won RM30k at the roullete table in the first 15 games. So you're thinking.. "Shud I go on, since I'm on a roll here?"
Some will say "Yes" if they want to accumulate more wealth. Some will say "No" to protect their wealth.

For now, I think there is more compelling reasons to be cautious than to continue. Maybe i can make this choice because my path to more wealth is not limited to properties.

Just my 5cents.
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nod.gif nod.gif

if i m in ddd camp, it's for the same reasons. biggrin.gif

about wealth protection, the thing is uuu takes the position that props is still the best way to do it now, nothing's better. u n me n others dun think so.

the trouble is there are not many avenues to "make and protect" in rm these days. rm is hitting new lows (again). the only real way is invest in foreign assests in foreign currency.

i think at this time, even foreigners are not that keen to put their money here - we see foreign funds recently viciously selling down local reits. and say, a sg investor invested in a kv or iskandar prop at 2.45 <6months ago... now at 2.58, that's already a 5% loss to begin with.

lastly, with shrinkage trade surplus, a weak rm and few reasons to believe it'll turn around fast, it's maybe only a matter of time chicken n pizzas become a bit of "luxury" food for the masses. can't imagine what that will translate into...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 14 2013, 12:46 PM
AVFAN
post Aug 15 2013, 03:52 PM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Aug 15 2013, 02:03 PM)
Unfortunately to connect the dots and draw a conclusion is far too outstretch to most people.

So better don't do it if you don't know these stuffs. Just continue to be prudence financially (don't over burdened with debts. New wave against debts is coming near), save money and be prepare for 200 - 300 basis point (or maybe more) interests rate hike at least for mid term, i.e post 2015.

ya, i won't try to connect the dots like school maths. biggrin.gif

only that when i read that article, it just reinforced my view that if debt levels are still rising and mgs/my bonds are now "tak laku" forcing yields to rise continuosuly, what rates will they have to price new issues, how long can opr stay the same, how long can our mortgage and car loan rates stay the same?

perhaps india and indonesia experiencing more severe but similar probelms will lead the way in telling what is to come soon?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-14/i...e-outflows.html
http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/08/15/m...N0GG0DO20130815

today, rm approaching 3.28 for usd and 2.59 fo sgd.

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