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 V12 - Property prices discussion, For non "UUU" and "DDD" campers only...

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agentdiary
post Jul 18 2013, 03:07 PM

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our neighbor already issued official warning (2 months ago) to its citizen, as usual Malaysia is 'not affected' and remain bullish ...in pseudo

Singapore

Indonesia

Always hard to resist laughing when seeing people simulating rate high budget by 25 or 50 basis point. Totally defeat the purpose! They should take into account 200 basis point or higher. Keep laughing if you think it's an outrageous scenario.
agentdiary
post Jul 29 2013, 06:41 PM

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crude oil rise over 10% past 1 month, at the same time RM drop nearly 8% against USD. Double blade wound to our govt coffer.

dilemma to raise price now as still too near after GE13 and just a week to go b4 Raya.

I speculate petrol company have problem to bring in supply without increase the subsidies quota.



QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 29 2013, 01:09 PM)
Anybody heard this? Diesel is missing all over Malaysia.
And what type of gasoline do the machinery that works on property? Diesel right?

This is a precursor to increase in diesel price ladies and gentlman.... and I guess property will go down???? I mean I want to hear from people who say that property is going to go down camp. Is it possible for property going down?

IMO this is infaltion at its best. Property is going up because of cost push inflation AND combine with demand pull inflation, be realistic.

Chicken goes up, fish goes up, vegetables go up, sugar go up and only property goes down?

Hmmh another point talking about economy, during the 2008 crisis in the US, interest rates went down to almost 0%. But some of us here are arguing that property price will go down because we cant service the loan due to increase interest rates, therefore more default.Learn from US, Japan etc..but really? Let say the economy is really in a bad shape in Malaysia, are we going to increase intrest rates? But then US didn't do that.

My take is always, Malaysia is different from the rest of the world. But the negative thinking people will say...just wait, Malaysia will crash soon. Dont buy anyhthing yet, learn from US, detroit, japan..bla..bla..bla. Well, they can keep on waiting.
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agentdiary
post Jul 29 2013, 06:48 PM

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u mistake between fed fund rate and mortgage rate. At this moment, US 30 yrs ARM is about 4.6%. We have even lower 30 yrs rate at 4.2%.


QUOTE(mIssfROGY @ Jul 29 2013, 06:43 PM)
but if u only have so much money left, will u buy house or buy food to survive?

in the US interest rates almost 0%...but ppl are losing jobs on a daily basis in 2008 and cant service loan, so props of coz go down lo.
U think in Msia if interest rates down to 0% and ppl are losing jobs but props still can sell at 1000sf?? yeah...rich ppl still can buy this no doubt smile.gif
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agentdiary
post Jul 29 2013, 06:52 PM

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agree.

we are in fact very similar to other bubble countries.

Jim nailed it right!

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 29 2013, 06:50 PM)
this has been said umpteen times, nobody cares.

and the rebuttal is always - msia is special, msia is diff, more rich people than poor. many a lot richer than u think, like or imgine (but debt keeps going up). even hawkers earn, teachers earn 10k pm. banks and  oil&gas 30k pm. plus thsioe in sgm, shanghai, london, billions ready to buy.

so, how can anyone not have moolah to buy anything? u must be lazy or and negative.

feel like giving up? tongue.gif
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agentdiary
post Jul 29 2013, 07:00 PM

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forget about low interests rate entirely, it wont happen, never again.

No fire sale as far as I remember in 98, people was so scare and depressed. I bough a car (99) and interests rate was about 10% and max 5 yrs. hahaha, what a pathetic time then, most people were very very depressed.

Don't think Malaysia will be that bad in the coming storm, as the coming storm epicenter is not here, it's up North, China.

QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 29 2013, 06:54 PM)
Then we hav 1998 for us as a benchmark. KLCI went down to just 200++ only but did we hear any property firesales? They were people who lost property due to bankruptcy of course but not because interetst rate increase or interets rate went down.

This is to the fact like iceman said, we hav a different economic theory cant compare wit US. If ever interest rate went close to 0% here, i believe property investor would rejoice. And we still hav huge KWSP to bailout anybody, as what we went through 1998. There will never be the lehman brothers incident here.
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agentdiary
post Aug 2 2013, 03:32 PM

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hahaha, the article sound like a mouth piece for govt.

BNM intervene a lot past few days. how much nobody know at this moment, but judging from last month milder storm, nearly 3b has injected. so, this round should be bigger. The credit crunch is the aftereffect from recent China policy. What to do? Our economy is too much dependence on China now. it sneeze we get cold.

i am not a fan of conspiracy but I still incline to think the recent diesel shortage has something to do with fund outflow (or MGS maturity). it needs real skill to cook 2 pots with just 1 cover.



QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 2 2013, 03:11 PM)
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/ma...rs-exaggerated/

Whats gonna happen when all this hot money vanishes? G better have some spectacular fiscal plan to boost productivity/ growth... I have a feeling, someone is gonna ask the rakyat for ideas very soon...  biggrin.gif
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agentdiary
post Aug 4 2013, 10:14 PM

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Sam's article about credit issue is good and should be taken seriously though he is optimistic that thing could turn around after 2013. But the article cover mainly from the perspective of trade and balance payment. Another part which he did not cover is the world credit market trend which is growing thirst for return that gradually moving away from sovereign securities especially the emerging market like us.

To make thing easier, when rate ups, exactly the opposite of what common belief, will take place, that price generally will down. More so the more it's leveraged. Not to crystal balling, but what we will see next is some big ticket projects cost will be shooting up greatly. So don't be surprise when we may even heard some of them will be delayed or postponed.

Currently BNM is fighting fire from 2 fronts: 1) intervene to replace the matured bond and 2) credit shortage (credit tightening or credit squeeze? they look like the same, take your own bet). Now, the third front is marching near the door, the trade deficit (it will drain our reserve quickly as payment has to commit to fill the gap) as export continue to plunge while import remains high (still large capital require as many construction taking place at the moment).

I'm not pessimist, just a messenger.

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 4 2013, 07:03 PM)
i admit i can't follow a lot of what's written here, so maybe guys like agent diary and anon can help out, thanks.

for those who who keep saying "inflation-gst-tax-weak rm will just keep pushing local prop prices higher, people still buy, dun wait", do read this fresh , very long and complex article and analysis, see if that is consistent with yr beliefs n hopes...
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agentdiary
post Aug 6 2013, 12:13 PM

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Now bnm has to prop up the govt bond market on its own. this will put the inflation in 5th gear with turbo mode.

in fact rate already up for public and private corp borrowing. only left the OPR which is very near, even need not to wait till the Nov.

QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 6 2013, 09:41 AM)
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/08/05/...adds-to-unease/

tsk tsk tsk... boleh land is really boleh land... with everything dropping from currency to trade surplus somehow they can still find the time and focus to give hand-outs... LoL!!!! How typical... Hmmm... wonder how much longer till we adopt India's approach (raise interest rates) maybe by then it might be too little too late...

whistling.gif
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agentdiary
post Aug 6 2013, 12:14 PM

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hahahaha

QUOTE(accetera @ Aug 6 2013, 10:48 AM)
The depreciation of ringgit is actually good news for our struggling exporters, particularly those SMEs, which have been lobbying for protection from Govt for some time. Iskandar Malaysia is amongst the property beneficiary from a weaker currency as it will help Iskandar to overweigh other upcoming cities in ASEAN in terms of investment prospects amongst Singaporeans.

Further to that, almost 400 bigger companies are refusing to follow the Minimum Wage guidelines as they felt the entire workforce will be skewed towards a gradual increment in salaries which these companies cannot afford to do so. The only way out is the companies must make some money first then invest in technology to improve productivity before hiking up everyone salaries. But analysts are concerned this may not come easy and may not even come before 2015.

The biggest issue with Malaysia is lack of reforms on fiscal policy, bigger and bigger budget deficit due to increase in civil workforce, public debt ratio is reaching the ceiling, very high household debt and a dwindling trade surplus and current account. Our unemployment rate has also increased slightly, where critics say the increase is mainly in plantation sector and could be due to minimum wages that had essentially removed some bottom tier workers.
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agentdiary
post Aug 7 2013, 11:38 AM

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heard, speculate, guess ..... that loan is slower?

why just get up your ass, dig out the data and take a god damm look at it? can't help to mock the laziness. sign......

Loan growth
agentdiary
post Aug 13 2013, 03:26 PM

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i pointed out many times, this is the last.

far too many ppl is confused between fed fund rate (0.25%) and mortgage rate. As per today, avg US 30 yrs ARM rate is 4.2% for avg med credit score. Which is quite on par with Malaysia current 4.2 - 4.5%.



QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 13 2013, 03:06 PM)
The article is definitely for US readers only. The so call no 3 points...of course laa, US interest rates Is 0.25%, it cannot go any lower. Why people want to think and wish that all this bad stuff should happen to Malaysia? If u miss the boat u miss it. Accept dat fact.
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agentdiary
post Aug 13 2013, 03:26 PM

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i pointed out many times, this is the last.

far too many ppl is confused between fed fund rate (0.25%) and mortgage rate. As per today, avg US 30 yrs ARM rate is 4.2% for avg med credit score. Which is quite on par with Malaysia current 4.2 - 4.5%.



QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 13 2013, 03:06 PM)
The article is definitely for US readers only. The so call no 3 points...of course laa, US interest rates Is 0.25%, it cannot go any lower. Why people want to think and wish that all this bad stuff should happen to Malaysia? If u miss the boat u miss it. Accept dat fact.
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agentdiary
post Aug 13 2013, 03:42 PM

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don't be surprise coz there are some econ grads and accountants (not all la of course), have little or no ideal how sovereign bond, mortgage, interests rate and central banking works together.

as a group (could be bias), those in hedge fund usually possess good knowledge on this thing.


QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 13 2013, 03:32 PM)
Thanks for repeating that (was very lazy to reply).. Many out there don't even understand how these rates work... They think they do and just mouth-off and embarrass themselves ... and dats the fact!!!...  brows.gif

In fact, there is no real relationship between fund rates and mortgage rates (based on studies)... Sigh... What a joke...

whistling.gif
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agentdiary
post Aug 13 2013, 03:45 PM

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oh, if so. can u explain why US mortgage is up now even no changes in the fed rate?

QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 13 2013, 03:43 PM)
I am not confused laa aiiyoo. The mortgage moves with the fed rates. The fed rates cant go any lower, that means the mortgage rates cant go any lower. Our mortgage rates moves with the OPR rate in Malaysia right? Same concept laa. Of course la morgage rates cant be 0.25%.
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agentdiary
post Aug 13 2013, 03:56 PM

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a sure fire recipe in financial industry.

i mean recipe for immediate dismissal.

but can't be serious, we r not in the line and we r only laymen.

QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 13 2013, 03:48 PM)
And the only anticipation when fed at 0.25% is interest rate is going up coz it cant go down no more. Now the guessing game is how long will it be at 0.25% and how the market will react when they think fed will increase, dats it.
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agentdiary
post Aug 13 2013, 05:57 PM

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true. Look like wasting my energy only.



QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 13 2013, 03:57 PM)
LoL!!!! Don't waste your time explaining la, save your saliva... before the discussion heats up and moderator has to close down the topic... Fact is some just don't want to accept da fact dat they're wrong and da fact that they should read more before mouthing off...

But I'm surprised that some studies actually show a negative relationship ... i.e fed rates down, mortgage rates up... could be coincidence...  whistling.gif
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agentdiary
post Aug 13 2013, 06:07 PM

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haha, staggering.

QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 13 2013, 05:47 PM)
Tertembak sendiri pulak... ROFLMAO!!!

  drool.gif whistling.gif
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agentdiary
post Aug 13 2013, 10:32 PM

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true.

better not comment if not fully grasp the mechanism. What I can't stand is usually some innocent will follow the half cooked advice and worst off by betting hard earned money on that.

whistle-blowing the error then somebody added an link and told me to piss off. haha.... better spend my time on beer and watch porno.


QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 13 2013, 06:56 PM)
Yup... Twisting and turning to get out of the tight spot... When wrong be a gentleman and admit it... Instead of being so childish... That's why sometimes it's wasting time and effort... I know quite a few senior bankers and seriously it doesnt mean someone that works in a bank knows all this that's just plain ridiculous to make statements like this... Anyways... Got better things to do then waste time explaining but good effort in doing some research... Please do more homework before mouthing off.
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agentdiary
post Aug 14 2013, 09:43 AM

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sign...


Interests rate is the cost of money and money goes for yield and yield depend on risks. By looking from this angle, perhaps someone would be enlightened and start thinking instead of bringing Perkasa into the discussion.

you're right, it ends nowhere......


QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 14 2013, 08:45 AM)
Freaking emotional ... lol!!!! Thinks the whole world revolves around a single person...  drool.gif

For the benefit of all others, please note that Fed Rates and Mortgage Rates (in the US) have no correlation... as some may have intentionally/ unintentionally keep reiterating... The following website contains a graph mapping out these two rates against each other and it is very extremely clear there is no correlation.

http://investing.curiouscatblog.net/2008/0...e-rate-changes/

Lesson to learn is please please please be very very wary and careful of what you read here as some may sound convincing but in actual fact are spreading misleading and misguiding information.

whistling.gif
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agentdiary
post Aug 14 2013, 10:07 AM

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Answer to the question:


The recent 8 weeks rise (avg 70bps) of US ARM mortgage rate despite no change in 0.25% fed fund (it always happens):

This is super short explanation (may miss some detail but just to give a bigger picture):

last yr op twist and QE3,4 (whatever) induced very large treasuries/bonds buying that has pushed the yield lowest point. Then Ben's Jun '13 minute hinted possible tapering due to improved trade deficit number (not stop printing but slowing down on monetization) as early as Q3 '13. The market took it as real and to reduce exposure and possible pricing down of the bills, large fund start selling. It became a self fulfilling prophecy and market was contagion and everybody was in the selling mode that forced the long term yield spike over 100bps in just a few weeks. Those new in the treasuries market last year was burnt. There is a normal 80-150 (under current low rate condition) spread between mortgage rate and long term bond yield due to diff risk level. Thus, mortgage rate has to rise.

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