Sam's article about credit issue is good and should be taken seriously though he is optimistic that thing could turn around after 2013. But the article cover mainly from the perspective of trade and balance payment. Another part which he did not cover is the world credit market trend which is growing thirst for return that gradually moving away from sovereign securities especially the emerging market like us.
To make thing easier, when rate ups, exactly the opposite of what common belief, will take place, that price generally will down. More so the more it's leveraged. Not to crystal balling, but what we will see next is some big ticket projects cost will be shooting up greatly. So don't be surprise when we may even heard some of them will be delayed or postponed.
Currently BNM is fighting fire from 2 fronts: 1) intervene to replace the matured bond and 2) credit shortage (credit tightening or credit squeeze? they look like the same, take your own bet). Now, the third front is marching near the door,
the trade deficit (it will drain our reserve quickly as payment has to commit to fill the gap) as export continue to plunge while import remains high (still large capital require as many construction taking place at the moment).
I'm not pessimist, just a messenger.
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 4 2013, 07:03 PM)
i admit i can't follow a lot of what's written here, so maybe guys like agent diary and anon can help out, thanks.
for those who who keep saying "inflation-gst-tax-weak rm will just keep pushing local prop prices higher, people still buy, dun wait", do read this fresh , very long and complex article and analysis, see if that is consistent with yr beliefs n hopes...