Bro, thanks for sharing.... 🔮🔮🔮

Going forward with BNM concern on debt and property market cooling on BNM measures:

With the recent Fitch rating on bolehland and weakening MYR, what is the impact on the share market, given that our share market is at alltime high? Can buy counter with foreign export to USD??

What is the best investment strategy for the short term and 3-5 years?

Anybody??

Yup it incurred so much loss that another bank was asked to save it. In other words it was bailed out, same thing happened with AIG but US government bought AIG after they learned the mistake of letting lehman go bankrupt.

i admit i can't follow a lot of what's written here, so maybe guys like agent diary and anon can help out, thanks.

for those who who keep saying "inflation-gst-tax-weak rm will just keep pushing local prop prices higher, people still buy, dun wait", do read this fresh , very long and complex article and analysis, see if that is consistent with yr beliefs n hopes...



This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 4 2013, 07:03 PM

Sam's article about credit issue is good and should be taken seriously though he is optimistic that thing could turn around after 2013. But the article cover mainly from the perspective of trade and balance payment. Another part which he did not cover is the world credit market trend which is growing thirst for return that gradually moving away from sovereign securities especially the emerging market like us.

To make thing easier, when rate ups, exactly the opposite of what common belief, will take place, that price generally will down. More so the more it's leveraged. Not to crystal balling, but what we will see next is some big ticket projects cost will be shooting up greatly. So don't be surprise when we may even heard some of them will be delayed or postponed.

Currently BNM is fighting fire from 2 fronts: 1) intervene to replace the matured bond and 2) credit shortage (credit tightening or credit squeeze? they look like the same, take your own bet). Now, the third front is marching near the door, the trade deficit (it will drain our reserve quickly as payment has to commit to fill the gap) as export continue to plunge while import remains high (still large capital require as many construction taking place at the moment).

I'm not pessimist, just a messenger.

Maybe can look at rubber glove stocks eg.harta & timber stocks eg.taan, jtiasa, wtk

IMHO, if you think that the interest rate will increase, then property market will be adversely affected. It is the extent of the increase which will determine the degree of the property market downturn.

As for stock market, if the market collapse, every company will be affected, foreign export company included. Even companies which export to aliens in neptune will not be spared. Maybe the recovery for these companies will be faster.

What is the best strategy ? Nobody has the answer. If you opt to be conservative, then stay liquid in a basket of currencies

This post has been edited by EddyLB: Aug 5 2013, 12:34 AM

I'm one of the low income group, working as landscaper. According to my boss this phenomena is normal, Most of them are not even a buyer or investor, they just an investor relative or friends helping them to promote and pretend as buyer,the fact is some unit sold out long time ago before lauching, My boss also sapu two unit from the XXXdeveloper, and the remaining unit will only sell out to the real buyer, and push those buyer to buy faster otherwise no chance. pity them buy much more expensive house after flip at least two time

Guese this always work! I myself also keep enroll in NUskin supplement activity 1 year ago, They also using almost the same tactic too. The member told me you have to act fast otherwise no chance, but the fact is the chance always there......The weird things is it always work on some people! it the what we call business strategy? I'm still naive sorry~~

This post has been edited by WonPeter: Aug 5 2013, 03:01 AM

hmm am I wrong ? but so far this is the information I know

I guess Dev must b making lotsa $$$ tat allow them to hire so many of the fake buyers. Market must b doin real gd to imply tis marketing strategy

What is this NUskin supplement activity about? Some MLM?

So prices going up or down? Asking prices seems still going up but in my case bank appear stricter in processing my second loan.

Prices will continue to go up because of momentum, but the current cycle seems to be running out of steam. I hear on the grapevine that subsale volume is slowing, and this indicates that rising asking prices are not being accepted by subsale buyers. New launch prices are still increasing thanks to easy financing by panel banks, but it seems that bank policy in general is getting stricter. My preferred bank, of which I am a so-called "premium customer", refused to approve a mortgage for me notwithstanding that the loan is only at 70% margin and is a mere 2x my gross declared income. Reason given was inter alia that the selling price was "too optimistic". I knew that of course, but wasn't really bothered as I could afford it. Ultimately though I was forced to use the developer's panel bank who apparently had no problems with the selling price.

I suspect that the system of "panel banks" cozying up with developers to offer loans is a potential moral hazard risk, as there seems to be pressure to approve ultra-optimistic valuations, and approve buyers more easily in order to get more panel work.

Yup I dont mind if my financing is slashed even to 70 percent as I really think I cud afford it and the price I locked in is still slightly high but not too bad compare to the current asking price. But I do have to admit that my finance is in need of slight reorganisation but shouldnt be a problem as I just sold one of my apartment. Guess I will have to ask for extension from my seller and see how it pans out.

lol even if you are down camp doesnt mean that you dont buy, you just buy but more cautiously.

Anyway from my experience selling it is not that the buyer did not accept the asking price. Its just that bank wont give valuation and so buyer has to top up their own money. Like for example buying 200k apartment bank valuation is only 120k. Then buyer will have to top up 80k. But if buyer have 80k they would be in position to buy even for a property that is 800k! So doesnt make sense to buy 200k property! But at the same time undercon for similar size is selling at says 300k but with less entry which also doesnt make sense. I for one will go for the 200k but I wont be able to get finance! In the end somethjng will have to give in!

I wouldn't categorise myself as down camp, as I don't think my views on the property market are so simple as to be capable of being categorised into a simple "up" or "down". I like to think of myself a realist who attempts to estimate risk and act based on facts, logical analysis and intuition instead of emotions and oversimplified heuristics. If you read my post history over the past year, you will notice that I never agreed with the DDD camp that the bubble will burst any time soon. Instead, I maintain that our property market is showing the classic signs of a bubble, and appears to be supported by signs of a growing debt bubble across Asia fed by an exodus of hot money from developed economies. Nevertheless, based on my research into property bubbles around the world, I have concluded that the outcome of our bubble is still uncertain at this stage, and in fact there is even a risk that it may grow further.

Currently, I find the property market to be at a medium to high risk stage due to increasingly poor fundamentals, but due to my increasing income, I need to hedge some of my cash in assets other than cash as I cannot allow all my income to enter FD. Although cash is king in the event of a crisis, I do not wish to hold too much cash as I had expected the MYR to weaken. Putting too much cash in the KLCI also has its own risks for other reasons. which I shall not go into here. In my view, the property market is not necessarily doomed to crash as my expectation of interest rates rising in anticipation of inflation may be defeated due to policy changes which are inherently unpredictable. For instance, the Australian property bubble which started collapsing in 2008/2009 was saved by major government intervention, and it then started growing rapidly again. Ideally, I would prefer if BNM and other central banks and governments would always act rationally, but I fully expect they may end up act irrationally for political purposes. Consequently, I would not recommend anybody to exit the property market completely so long as mortgage debt levels remain low relative to income, and so long as residential property makes up only a small proportion of total investment exposure.

I fully understand if you wish to take a different approach towards investing, i.e. by leveraging up on the property market. As I had noted earlier in this forum, it is a depressing fact indeed that many Malaysians have no access to capital, and have little prospect of gaining wealth aside from gambling their futures taking on high levels of debt. That to me is a major risk factor as well, as the residential property market is now overflowing with unsophisticated investors who are leveraged to the hilt, pushing our household debt levels to about 85% of GDP. My personal (and admittedly limited) observations in Malaysia and elsewhere shows me that the level of financial knowledge of the average Malaysian investor is shockingly low relative to those in other countries. An economy is only healthy if wealth gains comes from productivity and value-add, rather than asset inflation and credit expansion. Relying on asset inflation as an investment strategy is inherently unsustainable if this inflation is not backed up by growing yields, but many of our market participants do not have the capacity to appreciate this.

Apart from price and location. What is the others field that I have to look into when deciding to buy a property??

Currently plan to buy a apartment/condo 200k and plan to stay with my family at there for at least 10 years. Just wondering what others aspect I have to take into consideration before making buy decision

Agreed. Still uncertain which way this is gonna go. Plus govt intervention and outside factors also play roles. But of course some people cant see shades of colours they just want to see black or white..

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busine...ore/766250.html

Hmmm... is this news telling us something about future property prices in bolehland?

Bubble could happen in 2015/2016. This is some prediction by bankers. Up to you and me to buy it.