just to share

http://www.danielloh.com/2013/07/qe.html

the chart basically shows the impact of the begining of QE tappering (Early Stage).....Bonds yield started to rise, Share prices started to correct and property prices started to adjust.

Once QE confirm exiting the market, bond, share, property prices will see major correction

Last stage, after the draining of QE.....interest rate will hike......this is when Gold, Property, stocks market will be hitting hard.....bear market.

If US is draining the QE in early 2014 coupled with the oversupply of high rise.....i think property correction may come earlier than expected.

Now we fear the recovery of US......

It's funny, all of this. The 2007/2008 crisis was paradoxically good for our asset markets, not just because of the investor pullout in developed markets, but also because of their stimulus money which had no where to go. As I recall, the asset bubbles which led to the Asian Financial Crisis was in part due to Japanese monetary easing in the aftermath of their own property bubble back in the 80s. Deja vu anyone? Most people don't understand this relationship, and think that our surviving the 2007/2008 crisis is proof of our resilience. It isn't. It's the magic of fiat money.

We are more prepared for a crisis now than back in 1997/98, but I remember being in Singapore where interest rates were at a stupid ~0% even though inflation was hitting 5%, simply because of the hugely profitable carry trade between the USD and the SGD. My colleagues were actually feeling forced into buying property as mortgage rates at 2% were lower than inflation at 5%. In that period, I note that Singapore, Indonesian and Filipino asset markets actually did even better than us. While the withdrawal of stimulus monies is expected to hurt our asset markets by restricting credit growth, I'm still of the view that the most likely scenario is that any fallout can be controlled and contained because of strong government financials, the fact that the withdrawal of QE is expected to be gradual, and I foresee Japan, GB and Europe to continue easing for a while.

Its not as bad as you think.
We are different from Spain and Greece because their cost of labour is far more expensive.
Its true that Spain, Greece, and other EU countries and the Malaysia government spend too much, but because our labour cost is lower, businesses move to low cost regions during a downturn.
Our ringgit going down against the USD is actually also a good thing because it makes our exports even cheaper.
In Australia, they were bragging how high their currency is against the USD, but then came the announcement Ford was pulling out their car manufacturing from Australia. In fact manufacturing in Australia is only relatively small sector.

The Malaysian economy can still be saved by the private sector.
Do you think the MNCs in Malaysia are sitting still while the rest of the world become more competitive?
In Penang, local management in MNCs like Intel, Altera, Sony, Agilent, etc. are working hard to transform even if the government does not.
Working hard to bring in more product lines, jobs, etc.
I admit that MIDA does work hard as well, but you should be thanking the Malaysian Managers in these MNCs to not just say, we are cheap, but we are also capable.
Not just Penang, but elsewhere in Malaysia.

However. I would be extra cautious in property investment in 2013.

With sarcasm, do you think these people are just pure investors or homebuyers? Hahaha...


bbb mode is back in subang jaya with @cylee pic from empire remix2

to me, this is very bad news. if penang as the bedrock of boland mfg thinks its a goner, tough.

in the old days, sg did that - plough money incl cpf into constr when recession arrives. that actually worked, but they r passed that now, more in to services n trade.

here, gud times, bad times, just build n constr out of trouble. may not work tis time with so much debt overhang. of course, the leakages go on regardless...

very dark days ahead... more so when focus seems to be dogs n canteens....

The overall retail market is growing... but it is true that if you look more closely most retailers are struggling. 

Our growth is from the big players for example in F&B you have to see Starbucks, McDonald's, Chatime, TGI Friday's, Chilli's, etc... so as long as the big players are doing well, in totality wise, I would say we are doing fairly well.
Yes all fully booked.... i was at The Curve... even the non-halal ones aso crowded. So ended up in Din Tai Fung which was crowded as well.