QUOTE(robertchoo @ Dec 14 2014, 12:49 PM)
But do you think oil price will recover in the near term now that US is ramping up its shale oil/gas production?
How long do you think the oversupply will last as China is no longer on super growth mode (and i think it won't ever be on that kind of growth rate again- ever).
Unless OPEC decides to drastically cut production, I do not think prices will go up at all.
And even if they decide to cut production for the short term, in the long term, would the individual members follow? I mean who wants to take a hit on their GDP as they reduce production of oil/gas
On the other hand, the USA might just triple ramp up production of shale oil/gas to make up for the shortfall from OPEC's cut in oil production, hence "killing" the OPEC members.
What are your thoughts on this?
US isn't ramping up. It's ramping down due to the high cost of break even extraction.
Most of the major producers are now setting up credit buffers to brave the shock for a good 2 to 3 years. Most of the gas projects will be fine as they're under contracts for supply anyway.
OPEC's plan is merely to price low enough for a long enough time to kill off high cost producers, even their reserves and credit buffers can't withstand more than 2 nears near their total cost of production.
Shale oil cannot just be ramped up, the very nature of its extraction means that it is a time consuming endevour, thus they generally aren't able to react fast enough to the slump in prices. That's the whole strategy behind killing them. Hit them hard with low prices in a short term blitz and let them die, then resume restricted production after their dead.