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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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TheDoer
post May 19 2011, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ May 18 2011, 03:29 PM)
ok.. i sapu one properties liao.. now only worried for the BLR > which i know for sure few more months will go up more ~
but kenot tahan to wait liao.. home stay one not for investment..
but if reli crash and somehow can force the developer price is lower than i purchase one.. then i will only blame my luck ~  tongue.gif
anyway.. happy that I'm able to find my dream home ~
*
Hey congratz man.

If anything goes wrong, we could always blame the BBB gurus too. Don't forget wink.gif
CKHong
post May 19 2011, 09:23 AM

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simply increase the BLR to 1.0% i will have no chance to go travel already.. increase another 1.0% then i have to eat vegetarian.. increase again.. ok la.. i do freelance T_T
arthurlwf
post May 19 2011, 09:27 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ May 19 2011, 08:52 AM)
you have raised some excellent points. but reviewing your points i can't help to notice a lot of it is dependant on the economy and point no. 6. and if BLR is 'controlled' by government, and if they knew the consequence/catastrophe that is going to land malaysians in the event of property bubble, wouldn't the government intervene and maintain low BLR to prevent bubble bursting?
just a thought...
*
When blr is 10%, then bank offer blr - 6%... icon_idea.gif
TheDoer
post May 19 2011, 09:34 AM

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Grass is always an option too biggrin.gif


After counting my expenses, realised I can't afford it even with my gf. So scrapping that idea.

I am at the tipping point now. I leave it to FAMA to buy a bigger home for us to live in I will be taking a small bank loan to help. Now I'll get a slightly bigger room for myself. My future wife will have to see her mother in law everyday... lol.

But then, if prices continue to increase, and there is no bubble (I doubt it), then I must seriously think about my children. I have to do for my children what my parents are doing for me now.
CKHong
post May 19 2011, 09:47 AM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ May 19 2011, 09:22 AM)
Hey congratz man.

If anything goes wrong, we could always blame the BBB gurus too.  Don't forget wink.gif
*
thanks doer smile.gif if BLR didnt increase much.. no effect on me.. only scare BLR increase alot only ~ but that one is after 3 years ~ since its a new developtment ~ but tarak DIBS.. BLR increase i also cham ~

QUOTE(arthurlwf @ May 19 2011, 09:27 AM)
When blr is 10%, then bank offer blr - 6%...  icon_idea.gif
*
Problem is we got lock in period.. normally 3 years... so if we can tahan the bank repayment for 3 years then ok la.. we can do refinance after the lock in period.. if kenot tahan 3 years then good game edi

QUOTE(TheDoer @ May 19 2011, 09:34 AM)
After counting my expenses, realised I can't afford it even with my gf. So scrapping that idea.
*
I dare to get a property now is bcos now i got reserve RM200 each month for oversea trip.. if worst come to worst.. then ah.. duwan go overseas lur.. all put into the bank repayment... then now i'm paying back my phone (htc desire) also RM200.. so i have spare RM200 once i finish my repayment for the phone....
BLR increase until > RM500 then i'm a gone case edi.. have to work 2 job liao..

This post has been edited by CKHong: May 19 2011, 09:49 AM
lch78
post May 19 2011, 09:51 AM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ May 19 2011, 10:47 AM)
thanks doer  smile.gif  if BLR didnt increase much.. no effect on me.. only scare BLR increase alot only ~  but that one is after 3 years ~ since its a new developtment ~ but tarak DIBS.. BLR increase i also cham ~
Problem is we got lock in period.. normally 3 years... so if we can tahan the bank repayment for 3 years then ok la.. we can do refinance after the lock in period.. if kenot tahan 3 years then good game edi
I dare to get a property now is bcos now i got reserve RM200 each month for oversea trip.. if worst come to worst.. then ah.. duwan go overseas lur.. all put into the bank repayment...  then now i'm paying back my phone (htc desire) also RM200..  so i have spare RM200 once i finish my repayment for the phone....
BLR increase until > RM500 then i'm a gone case edi.. have to work 2 job liao..
*
If you don't want to worry about BLR fluctuations, you should take fixed rate loan in the first place....... wink.gif
22222222
post May 19 2011, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(arthurlwf @ May 19 2011, 09:27 AM)
When blr is 10%, then bank offer blr - 6%...  icon_idea.gif
*
Bro, u think too much oledi.....I think bank max to go is blr-3

let say now Blr = 10%, bank offer u blr-6%, maybe one year later blr drop to 8%......so blr - 6% = 2%......bank makan sendiri oledi loh.....
CKHong
post May 19 2011, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ May 19 2011, 09:51 AM)
If you don't want to worry about BLR fluctuations, you should take fixed rate loan in the first place.......  wink.gif
*
i dun like fixed rate lol~
liyonglim
post May 19 2011, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ May 19 2011, 09:53 AM)
Bro, u think too much oledi.....I think bank max to go is blr-3

let say now Blr = 10%, bank offer u blr-6%, maybe one year later blr drop to 8%......so blr - 6% = 2%......bank makan sendiri oledi loh.....
*
Hmmm, some of the banks got cap limit one. For example, blr 10, bank give -5. So ur interest rate is 5%. Then 5% is the lowest rate u have. Ur rate cannot go below 5% regardless the blr drop in future; but your rate can go higher if blr increases. The banks always win. They are confirmed to earn your interest money once you drop down ur signature.

This post has been edited by liyonglim: May 19 2011, 10:40 AM
KLsooner
post May 19 2011, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ May 19 2011, 08:52 AM)
you have raised some excellent points. but reviewing your points i can't help to notice a lot of it is dependant on the economy and point no. 6. and if BLR is 'controlled' by government, and if they knew the consequence/catastrophe that is going to land malaysians in the event of property bubble, wouldn't the government intervene and maintain low BLR to prevent bubble bursting?
just a thought...
*
Do you really think BLR is the "thing" that is going to cause trouble if prop bubble burst?

Then you have to look at Japan during the early 90s, Hong Kong during the 97 crisis, US sub prime crisis at 2008. Was BLR causing the crisis? Was the BLR too high that people are unable to repay the installment?

Check BLR in US for the past 10 years, it is at history low for any decade, yet property in US is taking a double dip this year.

BNM cannot keep BLR low when CPI and inflation rate is over 3% (gomen figure, actual figure is much higher). Gomen will only keep BLR low when property bubble burst big time to bail those in trouble out. What is the point to have 1% BLR when your property value lost 50% of its value like some Americans are facing now? Most just give up paying becos no point paying for a house half its value while using wife or relative name can buy another one half the price with half the installment.

lch78
post May 19 2011, 10:58 AM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ May 19 2011, 11:06 AM)
i dun like fixed rate lol~
*
You are a risk taker, me neither... brows.gif
groggy
post May 19 2011, 12:06 PM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ May 19 2011, 09:53 AM)
Bro, u think too much oledi.....I think bank max to go is blr-3

let say now Blr = 10%, bank offer u blr-6%, maybe one year later blr drop to 8%......so blr - 6% = 2%......bank makan sendiri oledi loh.....
*
No lah, with floating rate, bank never makan sendiri. when rate goes up, u makan sendiri. bank no problem.
godutch
post May 19 2011, 12:11 PM

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QUOTE(arthurlwf @ May 19 2011, 09:27 AM)
When blr is 10%, then bank offer blr - 6%...  icon_idea.gif
*
LOL

this is just not possible whistling.gif

BLR hike as a result of OPR hike, and when OPR hike, FD rates will increase as well, so it's not possible that banks increasing FD rates and other saving accounts rates but keep the mortgage loan rates low biggrin.gif


Added on May 19, 2011, 12:12 pm
QUOTE(CKHong @ May 19 2011, 09:47 AM)
thanks doer  smile.gif  if BLR didnt increase much.. no effect on me.. only scare BLR increase alot only ~  but that one is after 3 years ~ since its a new developtment ~ but tarak DIBS.. BLR increase i also cham ~
Problem is we got lock in period.. normally 3 years... so if we can tahan the bank repayment for 3 years then ok la.. we can do refinance after the lock in period.. if kenot tahan 3 years then good game edi
I dare to get a property now is bcos now i got reserve RM200 each month for oversea trip.. if worst come to worst.. then ah.. duwan go overseas lur.. all put into the bank repayment...  then now i'm paying back my phone (htc desire) also RM200..  so i have spare RM200 once i finish my repayment for the phone....
BLR increase until > RM500 then i'm a gone case edi.. have to work 2 job liao..
*
congrats!!!!!

but since you will not sell you condo coz it's for own stay so prices drop will not affect you, pls pray for us, those who hv found our home sweet home yet, for the property prices to be adjusted biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by godutch: May 19 2011, 12:12 PM
bluesfingers
post May 19 2011, 01:17 PM

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For Property price up up up believer!
IF that was true you have to accept either one of the following too:
biggrin.gif Ishak Allah, Malaysia has transformed into High Income Nation by 2020. Take the nearer developed nation as a benchmark,Singapore, our Salaries or Incomes should be doubled/increased 100% by 2020 (9 more years to go). It seems too far huh? no problem, we set a milestone at 2015/2016 (4 years from now) means we should get 50% increase by then. Meaning, a school teacher who is earning RM3000 now should get RM4500, 4-5years experience Engineer earning RM5k now shd get RM7500, A manager earning RM10k now shd get RM15k rclxms.gif

cry.gif Instead of transforming the country into a high income nation, we transform it into 2nd Philippines. Most people in the country cant afford the high cost of living and have to work oversea in order to sustain their espenses.

flex.gif
room2009
post May 19 2011, 01:38 PM

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QUOTE(KLsooner @ May 18 2011, 11:47 PM)
I do not agree with this.

1. during 98 crisis, property did not have bubble. Share market was pretty high at that time and plunged 80% to 260 pts.
2. at that time, property price are considered peanut or chicken feed compared to now, even a drop of 20% was not painful.
3. most of the people are buying for own stay, almost no speculators at that time, so fire sell did not happened. Some people sell property ware to cover their margin account.
4. The higher it goes, the harder it falls.
5. Do not compare with the past becos history does not repeat by itself.
6. BLR was 12%, BNM has plenty of room to force BLR at all time low to bail those in the deep shit out.
7. 98 crisis was single dimensional currency crisis, who know what will hit us next? could be something like Japan, 3 in 1.
8. during 98, most of the western countries were enjoying good GDP growth, export helps our country to recover fast with a fixed RM of 3.80. Now every one has their own problem including China which could means doom if global economy take a double dip. A quick double dip is still better than a long and painful double dip like Japan.

I forsee if there were a property crisis in the future, it is going to be a catastrophic one. Be prepared.
*
good point. good point. good analysis. rclxms.gif
during the 98 period, i bought 3 cheap flat.
during 09 i bought 5 condo and sold this year.

i don't do analysis, i just buy when i can and i let go when i feel i wanted to.
for me.. just let the money talk. biggrin.gif
sorry for ppl js started to involve in this market,
when word doesn't turn into reality.. it is bullshit.
trust yourself when do investment.
CKHong
post May 19 2011, 01:59 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ May 19 2011, 12:11 PM)

Added on May 19, 2011, 12:12 pm

congrats!!!!!

but since you will not sell you condo coz it's for own stay so prices drop will not affect you, pls pray for us, those who hv found our home sweet home yet, for the property prices to be adjusted  biggrin.gif
*
Yeah.. i will also pray for u all for the adjustment since the property price skyrocketing for so much.. may god bless us all ! Agreed.. if price drop also won't affect me since i'm not buying for investment... i'm still in ur group ! biggrin.gif wait 10++ years then i might change group to investor... but for now.. i'll support u guys biggrin.gif


QUOTE(bluesfingers @ May 19 2011, 01:17 PM)
For  Property price up up up believer!
IF that was true you have to accept either one of the following too:
  biggrin.gif  Ishak Allah, Malaysia has transformed into High Income Nation by 2020. Take the nearer developed nation as a benchmark,Singapore, our Salaries or Incomes should be doubled/increased 100% by 2020 (9 more years to go). It seems too far huh? no problem, we set a milestone at 2015/2016 (4 years from now) means we should get 50% increase by then. Meaning, a school teacher who is earning RM3000 now should get RM4500, 4-5years experience Engineer earning RM5k now shd get RM7500, A manager earning RM10k now shd get RM15k  rclxms.gif     

cry.gif Instead of transforming the country into a high income nation, we transform it into 2nd Philippines. Most people in the country cant afford the high cost of living and have to work oversea in order to sustain their espenses.

flex.gif
*
From ur writing.. are u an IT person ? biggrin.gif who uses agile development ? ahah.. sorry again.. out of property discussion..

This post has been edited by CKHong: May 19 2011, 02:01 PM
TheDoer
post May 19 2011, 02:08 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ May 19 2011, 01:59 PM)
From ur writing.. are u an IT person ? biggrin.gif who uses agile development  ? ahah.. sorry again.. out of property discussion..
*
Actually, I wanted to buy my neighbours vacant prop. They were hoping that the price will continue to grow and grow, and wasn't really interested in selling it (even though it's vacant and deteriorating). They mark up the price above market rate, that even the realty agent for the other props in the area admits this.

When I move out, and if the neighbour wants to buy my home instead... I'm gonna raise it a little higher than what they offered us. rclxms.gif
godutch
post May 19 2011, 05:01 PM

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QUOTE(KLsooner @ May 18 2011, 11:47 PM)
I do not agree with this.

1. during 98 crisis, property did not have bubble. Share market was pretty high at that time and plunged 80% to 260 pts.
2. at that time, property price are considered peanut or chicken feed compared to now, even a drop of 20% was not painful.
3. most of the people are buying for own stay, almost no speculators at that time, so fire sell did not happened. Some people sell property ware to cover their margin account.
4. The higher it goes, the harder it falls.
5. Do not compare with the past becos history does not repeat by itself.
6. BLR was 12%, BNM has plenty of room to force BLR at all time low to bail those in the deep shit out.
7. 98 crisis was single dimensional currency crisis, who know what will hit us next? could be something like Japan, 3 in 1.
8. during 98, most of the western countries were enjoying good GDP growth, export helps our country to recover fast with a fixed RM of 3.80. Now every one has their own problem including China which could means doom if global economy take a double dip. A quick double dip is still better than a long and painful double dip like Japan.

I forsee if there were a property crisis in the future, it is going to be a catastrophic one. Be prepared.
*
Excellect points, you hv my 100% respect notworthy.gif notworthy.gif notworthy.gif


Added on May 19, 2011, 5:01 pm
QUOTE(KLsooner @ May 19 2011, 10:43 AM)
Do you really think BLR is the "thing" that is going to cause trouble if prop bubble burst?

Then you have to look at Japan during the early 90s, Hong Kong during the 97 crisis, US sub prime crisis at 2008. Was BLR causing the crisis? Was the BLR too high that people are unable to repay the installment?

Check BLR in US for the past 10 years, it is at history low for any decade, yet property in US is taking a double dip this year.

BNM cannot keep BLR low when CPI and inflation rate is over 3% (gomen figure, actual figure is much higher). Gomen will only keep BLR low when property bubble burst big time to bail those in trouble out. What is the point to have 1% BLR when your property value lost 50% of its value like some Americans are facing now? Most just give up paying becos no point paying for a house half its value while using wife or relative name can buy another one half the price with half the installment.
*

Added on May 19, 2011, 5:04 pm
QUOTE(CKHong @ May 19 2011, 01:59 PM)
Yeah.. i will also pray for u all for the adjustment since the property price skyrocketing for so much.. may god bless us all !  Agreed.. if price drop also won't affect me since i'm not buying for investment... i'm still in ur group !  biggrin.gif wait 10++ years then i might change group to investor... but for now.. i'll support u guys  biggrin.gif
From ur writing.. are u an IT person ? biggrin.gif who uses agile development  ? ahah.. sorry again.. out of property discussion..
*
Thank you notworthy.gif notworthy.gif

Affordability is really the Key word here biggrin.gif
and yes, sell only 10++ years later when you have kids and need to upgrade to a bigger unit biggrin.gif




This post has been edited by godutch: May 19 2011, 05:04 PM
tigana
post May 19 2011, 08:22 PM

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I think owning a property for your own home (at least) is a good thing. Believe me you will get the nice warm feeling when you first move in. I know that some people are worried about interest rates, but always try to pay early if possible ( a bit more every month -especially after naik gaji, or use your bonus ). You save on interest and if the hard times come, you have more breathing space because you paid some of the loan ahead of time. Also remember, if you really need too, you can use your EPF to pay - last resort. If thing sget really really tough, rent out a room to help make ends meet. And there is of course re-financing.
CKHong
post May 20 2011, 12:04 AM

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dang.. i forgot to add MLTA/MRTA T_T
if i take MLTA then my monthly repayment is a hell for me... my gf 400k and me 400k MLTA cost me additional RM601 per month...............
now still struggling whether take MLTA or MRTA or campur campur...
bro and sis.. b4 buying property.. better take account MLTA and MRTA ahh.. T_T
if wan cheaper > take MRTA.. but then if i do refinancing.. habis my RM18k that i put on MRTA
MLTA > monthly repayment macam gila...
ahhhh.. struggling.. asked in MRTA vs MLTA thread liao.. hope got sifu show me some road :'(

This post has been edited by CKHong: May 20 2011, 12:05 AM

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