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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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AVFAN
post May 20 2011, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ May 20 2011, 02:06 PM)
Sorry, my finance knowledge isn't that strong, is there any difference if our currency depreciated 30% as we are still living and spending in Malaysia? 
*
imported goods incl food, construction mat and machines will be the first to cost a lot more.
keep in mind maresia imports most of its food and is net importer of fuel - big amounts.
here, some of the effects have been masked by subsidies but when they remove them like now, very painful, no escape.
cherroy
post May 20 2011, 05:01 PM

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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ May 20 2011, 02:06 PM)
Sorry, my finance knowledge isn't that strong, is there any difference if our currency depreciated 30% as we are still living and spending in Malaysia? 
Gold yes, but property? Unless you paid fully for the property or I think that is more of a liability, no?
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Yes, goods price sky-rocketing.

Currency depreciated, it makes your property look even cheap from external, aka foreigner.


Added on May 20, 2011, 5:06 pm
QUOTE(kh8668 @ May 20 2011, 12:29 PM)
sounds like Vietnam >10% ..kekeke

singapore now around 2-3%? HK 2%?

oppss
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Wrong, both below 0.5%, roughly 0.1~0.2%

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 20 2011, 05:06 PM
CKHong
post May 20 2011, 05:10 PM

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0.1~0.2%
that one is interest ?? or BLR ?? or ?? sorry i get confused liao.. i tot it is BLR
cherroy
post May 21 2011, 10:02 AM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ May 20 2011, 05:10 PM)
0.1~0.2%
that one is interest ?? or BLR ?? or ?? sorry i get confused liao.. i tot it is BLR
*
When talk about interest rate, always use the central banks benchmark overnight rate, or rate policy set.
Like Malaysia OPR is 3% currently. So when we talk about interest rate, we said Malaysia current rate is 3%.
BLR is on top on the 3%, after adding cost of money, profit margin etc.
We don't use BLR as the indicator rate of a country.

Generally lending rate is above 2-3% the rate policy set.
AVFAN
post May 21 2011, 10:11 AM

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here is not usa, not same. but if there really come a time when a good no. of speculated props go on default, the subsequent scenario may have some similarity.


QUOTE
Not to sound like a broken record, but only when we work through the vast inventory and shadow inventory of foreclosed properties, can home prices bottom and housing recover overall. Obviously certain markets are more burdened by the distress than others, but it's a universal truth.

In April, however, the percentage of investors and all-cash buyers in the market dropped a bit. Investors have been buying the lion's share of foreclosures, as first-time home buyers continue to play a very small role in housing's recovery. First-time buyers should be about 40 percent of the market, but realtors say they are now about 36 percent. They made up nearly half of the market last Spring, but that was all thanks to the home buyer tax credit.

In addition to a tough job and mortgage market, first-time buyers are also looking at a lot of work when buying a foreclosed property.

I found this survey from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance particularly interesting this month:

For the month of April, 45% of foreclosed properties were damaged and not inhabitable without renovation. Because mortgage financing is generally not available for foreclosed properties that need major repairs, investors often buy these properties for cash. Fifty-five percent of damaged foreclosed properties were bought by investors in the month of April, while only 27% were bought by first-time homebuyers.

That also tells me that barely 18 percent were bought by move-up buyers.

Investors want to rehab these places and flip them as soon as possible, but today they are being forced to put them up for rent as first-time buyer demand is still weak.

The share of first time buyers is there, but they are not in the distressed market as much as they need to be to absorb that inventory.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43111762


This post has been edited by AVFAN: May 21 2011, 10:12 AM
CKHong
post May 21 2011, 10:34 AM

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thank u cherroy for the explanation
kh8668
post May 21 2011, 05:12 PM

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By Living Matters
By Angie Ng | May 21, 2011
Property remains hot investment instrument

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When it comes to what is the best investment instrument to leverage one’s savings on, invariably the subject on property will crop up. So, is it a wonder why the property market is so hot?

Rightly or wrongly so, more Malaysians and investors from around the world believe that investing in property is a better investment choice than others, and are putting more of their “eggs” in the property basket.

Although property investment is not a fool-proof investment, it has been seen many times over that one cannot go seriously wrong with property, unless its location is really poor – for example, it is inaccessible or the project is abandoned before its completion.

Compared with other big ticket items like automobiles which usually depreciate in value the moment the vehicle is driven out of the showroom, property is one of the more reliable in terms of investment return.

Most of the time, even average property developments have the potential to enjoy some form of capital appreciation and steady income streams (if they are leased out to good tenants).

The lack of other more reliable investment alternatives, given the volatile nature of the stock market and prevailing low savings rates, has certainly given an added edge to property investment.

Although Bank Negara has raised the overnight policy rate (OPR) a number of times since the onset of the global financial crisis, borrowing rates are still one of the lowest in recent times.

The easy (competitive or affordable) housing packages or financing schemes also make buying property a viable proposition. After a downpayment of 5% or 10%, a buyer need not make any more payment until the property is completed and this could be two or three years down the road. The delivery period for landed housing units is two years, while high-rise and commercial projects take three years.

To ease the heat in the market, it looks like it is timely to put a stop to these easy housing schemes, since the First Home Scheme (FHS) to promote home ownership among first time house buyers will take care of the needs of the critical group - those who have yet to buy their first home. Moreover, the purpose of the easy housing schemes promoted by the developers was to boost property buying as there was a sudden pullback among buyers when the global financial crisis first broke out in 2008. But, since early 2009, property sales and prices have surpassed the levels recorded before the crisis.

If the easy home ownership schemes are allowed to continue, they will dilute the effect of Bank Negara’s move in raising OPR to arrest speculative property buying and overheating in the market.

In fact, it has been found that persistent speculators are still undeterred by the imposition of the loan to value ratio of 70% for third mortgage borrowers. To circumvent this new ruling, some borrowers have resorted to using the names of their spouse or other family members when applying for loans.

For the FHS to be effective in promoting home ownership among first time buyers, the scheme needs to be fine-tuned with more workable guidelines.

Under the scheme, those earning RM3,000 or less could obtain 100% financing if they buy houses priced between RM100,000 and RM200,000, and the repayment period is stretched up to 30 years.

However, in the Klang Valley and Penang (especially), the land alone usually constitutes 20% to 25% of the cost of the property, and so it is important that the land for the FHS be provided by the Government.

If developers do not have to fork out a hefty sum for the land, they will be able to spend on better quality building materials, and the result will be better quality projects.

It is a well known fact that house prices, especially landed property, have increased beyond the RM200,000 mark.

To ensure homes built under the FHS will not turn into urban slums like many of the low-cost housing schemes in our vicinity, it is sensible to raise the prices of these homes to at least RM300,000.

We cannot assume that all first time buyers do not mind staying in high-rise dwellings, and so it is better to offer them the choice of landed property as well. Those who sign up for landed schemes should be prepared to pay a higher price.

It is necessary to draw up clear and specific guidelines for developers who are involved in the FHS to ensure they give due emphasis on quality in their projects and that includes location. Notably, many unsold housing units are those built in unfavourable and inaccessible areas.



Deputy news editor Angie Ng believes close public and private sector collaboration is needed to build a wholesome and holistic environment for the people.
http://www.starproperty.my/PropertyScene/P...Scene/12147/0/0


Added on May 21, 2011, 5:14 pm
QUOTE(cherroy @ May 21 2011, 10:02 AM)
When talk about interest rate, always use the central banks benchmark overnight rate, or rate policy set.
Like Malaysia OPR is 3% currently. So when we talk about interest rate, we said Malaysia current rate is 3%.
BLR is on top on the 3%, after adding cost of money, profit margin etc.
We don't use BLR as the indicator rate of a country.

Generally lending rate is above 2-3% the rate policy set.
*
for streetmen like us, we only care what is the interest rate to be charged to us. obsolutely not OPR rate, right?

nod.gif

This post has been edited by kh8668: May 21 2011, 05:14 PM
property101
post May 22 2011, 03:32 PM

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has any investors here consider pulling out cash from (fully / partially paid) properties to stock precious metal, such as silver?

This post has been edited by property101: May 22 2011, 03:32 PM
lch78
post May 22 2011, 06:19 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ May 22 2011, 04:32 PM)
has any investors here consider pulling out cash from (fully / partially paid) properties to stock precious metal, such as silver?
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Too insecure. People can steal, and not the mention the problem of storage.. laugh.gif
CKHong
post May 22 2011, 06:23 PM

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I've heard from a banker that after the 70% LVT, many investor jump ship from goreng props to goreng shop lot biggrin.gif
WannaGetBuffed
post May 22 2011, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ May 20 2011, 03:04 PM)
imported goods incl food, construction mat and machines will be the first to cost a lot more.
keep in mind maresia imports most of its food and is net importer of fuel - big amounts.
here, some of the effects have been masked by subsidies but when they remove them like now, very painful, no escape.
*
QUOTE(cherroy @ May 20 2011, 05:01 PM)
Yes, goods price sky-rocketing.

Currency depreciated, it makes your property look even cheap from external, aka foreigner.


Added on May 20, 2011, 5:06 pm

Wrong, both below 0.5%, roughly 0.1~0.2%
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Now this part is what I don't understand. Economy is bad, prices goes sky-rocketing. Now economy is good, share market all time high, yet prices are still sky-rocketing. So, what gives?
property101
post May 22 2011, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ May 22 2011, 06:23 PM)
I've heard from a banker that after the 70% LVT, many investor jump ship from goreng props to goreng shop lot  biggrin.gif
*
for most seasoned investor, commercial is always better than residential. if one has the ability play the commercial game, generally he will not want to play residential game
AVFAN
post May 22 2011, 07:23 PM

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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ May 22 2011, 06:33 PM)
Now this part is what I don't understand. Economy is bad, prices goes sky-rocketing. Now economy is good, share market all time high, yet prices are still sky-rocketing. So, what gives?
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in theory, price of goods fall when economy is bad, poor demand.
prices go up when demand is up in a vibrant economy.
however, it is incorrect to say local economy is good with prices going up now.
rising prices now is mainly due to inflation with incomes not rising fast enough due to stagnant production/productivity.
local share market high? check the smaller cos.! the index is high due to bulk of big cos. shares untraded, local finds selling each other, incl epf. little foreign money.
until and unless our gomen can reform to invest or attract investors into massive viable projects that raise incomes fast enough, we'll continue down this path - our litttle individual wealth dissipating with inflation leading to lower purchasing power - for the normal employee.
this was what happened to the philippines a few decades back.
so, now you can ask the question: what have they been doing all these years?!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: May 22 2011, 07:26 PM
sampool
post May 22 2011, 07:35 PM

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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ May 22 2011, 07:33 PM)
Now this part is what I don't understand. Economy is bad, prices goes sky-rocketing. Now economy is good, share market all time high, yet prices are still sky-rocketing. So, what gives?
*
food price high partially contributed from the service tax.. 10% + 6%. Because u eat frequently at shopping center or good looking shop. Calculate urself lah.. biggrin.gif
cherroy
post May 22 2011, 08:18 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ May 22 2011, 06:45 PM)
for most seasoned investor, commercial is always better than residential. if one has the ability play the commercial game, generally he will not want to play residential game
*
Commercial is lucrative compared to residential.

Commercial properties yield can easily fetch up 10% yield, for good location/demand.
Residential yield somehow below 5% is quite normal, some even considered at high end range of yield already.
tigana
post May 22 2011, 09:21 PM

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High product prices does not just depend on strength of ringgit, subsidy, etc. it depends on many factors. One of which is property prices. The rental rates obviously goes up with property prices. Also, a home is a basic neccessity for many - inlcuding the noodle seller by the road side. A high ncome economy is also definitely going to drive property prices and food prices. But what you can hope for is better service and quality. How do we keep prices down? Have more competition and eliminate monopolistic practices. Why only have one or a few companies sell toyota in Malaysia, or mandarin oranges, etc. Remove these monopolies and have laws against price fixing practices.
cherroy
post May 22 2011, 09:43 PM

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QUOTE(tigana @ May 22 2011, 09:21 PM)
High product prices does not just depend on strength of ringgit, subsidy, etc. it depends on many factors. One of which is property prices. The rental rates obviously goes up with property prices. Also, a home is a basic neccessity for many - inlcuding the noodle seller by the road side. A high ncome economy is also definitely going to drive property prices and food prices. But what you can hope for is better service and quality. How do we keep prices down? Have more competition and eliminate monopolistic practices. Why only have one or a few companies sell toyota in Malaysia, or mandarin oranges, etc. Remove these monopolies and have laws against price fixing practices.
*
Rental rate is not going up as same pace with properties price. Rental rate is going up at a tortoise pace, while properties price is sprinting like a rabbit.

Currently the major inflation problem mainly come from external (have to agree car price is high due to high taxes, but this has been there for long time,)
which if we talk about current inflation spike, it is mainly due to massive QE which drive up commodities price, which just means Malaysia (almost all Asian region across) has no control over it, aka inflation being imported, or someone said US export inflation to Asia also.


AVFAN
post May 22 2011, 10:36 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ May 22 2011, 09:43 PM)
Rental rate is not going up as same pace with properties price. Rental rate is going up at a tortoise pace, while properties price is sprinting like a rabbit.

think so too. and this is a sign of trouble coming. when more of those high priced units come onto rental market, some will not be able to hold with weak rents.

to make matters worse, if more tenants find it hard to make ends meet, they'll run off without paying rent or utilities! been hearing a few more horror stories lately...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: May 22 2011, 10:37 PM
bluuberry
post May 22 2011, 10:49 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ May 22 2011, 10:36 PM)
think so too. and this is a sign of trouble coming. when more of those high priced units come onto rental market, some will not be able to hold with weak rents.

to make matters worse, if more tenants find it hard to make ends meet, they'll run off without paying rent or utilities! been hearing a few more horror stories lately...
*
agreed,
nowadays, the investor always tot that rental income is easily can cover the installment,
new highrise in current market easily can be sold at 500k ,
but the installment is 2k++, if they are targeting the local market, who is the one willing to pay ??
if targeting foreigner, foreigner also will depends on area, and the supply is more than the demand.


sampool
post May 23 2011, 10:18 AM

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over supply of the prop is main reason for the low rental... my population still cannot catch up with the over supply issue in the recent launching... crashing is matter of time... value ur prop with current market value and not future value, if not u will bankrupt b4 u able to get rich.. smile.gif

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