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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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TSVeda
post Feb 22 2011, 07:07 AM, updated 15y ago

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The original topic was started in July 2008 and was closed in Feb 2011
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/741185

Nearly 3 years passed during which property prices not only failed to drop but went up sharply (in Klang Valley and Penang).

Let the debate continue.


P.S. if the property market does crash and you want to sell your property at a big discount, PM me tongue.gif

This post has been edited by Veda: Feb 22 2011, 07:18 AM
TSVeda
post Mar 4 2011, 06:06 PM

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QUOTE(staticxtreme @ Mar 4 2011, 01:37 PM)
well. new and young grads are hoping for it to drop so they can afford their first house

experienced speculators/investors are hoping for it to increase so they can $$$

huge struggle. well i'm part of the young grads so i'm hoping for it to drop so i can put a roof above my head in the near future.
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In many countries (Singapore, the West etc), most people work for at least a few years before buying their first property. Buying the first property when they are in their early to mid 30s is the norm.

But here we have fresh grads looking to buy a house, and when they can't afford it (actually they can ..... if they are willing to compromise on their expectations), they blame it all on the "speculators".

This tells me Malaysian property is still affordable and prices have room to go up wink.gif laugh.gif

TSVeda
post Mar 22 2011, 01:52 PM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Mar 22 2011, 01:37 PM)
I can accept if you said last 2 years the bubble didn't burst.

But what you didn't realise is your forecast is as grim, as if there was an economy crisis.

Let's say you are right and everybody can only afford to rent, this will mean that the cost of living has gone up. The next generation can't afford to buy new props, unless they are extremely resourceful, or come from rich families, because props have become "scarce".

Is this really what you guys want?


Added on March 22, 2011, 1:40 pm
Come in here checking out whether props will drop. Because that's the only hope for us.  That's what this thread is about isn't it?

You're so sure that props won't drop, and if you feel irritated by our comments, why do you come here? Simply to mock the poor?
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Firstly, this is a free and open forum. Secondly, lighten up!

Anyways, property in places other than Klang Valley and Penang Island are still pretty affordable. You can get landed property for RM200k. Maybe the high property prices will "encourage" some people to remain in their hometowns. It's not good that so many young educated people are flocking to the major cities.

I personally know of people who work in the centre of KL but travel everyday from their landed houses in Seremban, Kajang, Rawang. And they are not complaining.
TSVeda
post Mar 23 2011, 02:33 PM

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The gist of the article is prices will continue to go up, but at a slower pace. I've no problem with that, as 50-100% increase in prices over 2 years is not sustainable. But that doesn't mean the market will crash. Checked the prices of several properties just now ..... prices have continued to go up!

This post has been edited by Veda: Mar 23 2011, 02:35 PM
TSVeda
post Mar 24 2011, 01:53 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Mar 23 2011, 03:09 PM)
the price is dependent on the seller
seller can jack up even higher price
they can say ok today i'll sell 350k.. next 2 month i'll sell 370k.. then 400k
the price they state oni ma..
important thing is.. did they really sold their house ? biggrin.gif  or they're just praying for luck ? waiting water fish to buy their props..
those that can tahan monthly installment.. ok la.. they can put whatever price they like..
wait till those kenot tahan.. boom ~ here comes the auction
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If there are no buyers, how can property prices continue to go up? It's a matter of supply and demand.

Property prices in good areas are not dependent on people looking to buy their first homes. From my observation at property launches and from asking ppl in the RE industry, most of the buyers are - 1. older, cash rich folks 2. foreigners 3. Malaysians working overseas. Of course, this does not apply in places like Kajang or Klang.

So prices in good areas will continue to go up even if some ppl choice to "boycott" buying wink.gif


Added on March 24, 2011, 1:55 pm
QUOTE(cranx @ Mar 24 2011, 12:39 PM)
The signs are there it is just a lot of us are too blind to notice. Every company can become a developer, major projects everywhere, everyone talks about property investment, media telling how much further it will go up.

this is DANGER!!!

though, it doesnt mean the bubble will pop immediately. I believe the US property bubble took 6 or 7 years to burst?
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Ppl have been saying that for many years doh.gif

Other than Mont Kiara and KLCC area, there's hardly a glut in properties.


This post has been edited by Veda: Mar 24 2011, 01:55 PM
TSVeda
post Mar 24 2011, 02:31 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 24 2011, 02:17 PM)
yep, a matter of supply and demand, but u forgot the big one - speculators or flippers buying and holding by the dozens. and we know there are plenty just here! if they can hold forever, then it is a non-issue.

dun be so sure about "hardly a glut". when you see it, it's too late to change yr mind.
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If they buy the "right" property, they can hold "forever". If cannot flip, just rent out lor. You'll be surprised at the demand for places to stay in the right areas.

Nah, other than those 2 places, there's no glut.
TSVeda
post Apr 4 2011, 03:45 PM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Apr 4 2011, 11:01 AM)
Non sequitor :

Yesterday, I talked to a bank agent, and to my surprise, he says I should be able to get a loan of more than 40% my basic. My credit card credit limit according to him is not important, whereas if I always paid them it will be good for my chances.
*
Can get up to 80% for certain banks, if you know a good mortgage executive brows.gif
TSVeda
post Apr 4 2011, 04:10 PM

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In the hands of people who can manage their finances properly, it's extremely useful and not dangerous at all. In the hands of those who can't ..........
TSVeda
post Apr 7 2011, 02:04 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 7 2011, 01:49 PM)
Who were the voters? If people from the property industry or developers then of course the answer will be 'price gonna increase'. Typical!
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The Edge readers tend to be those financially literate and corporate types ...... otherwise why would they read business news?


Added on April 7, 2011, 2:08 pmChecked the prices of properties in my shortlist again ...... since the last check 2 weeks ago, prices have gone up another RM10k-20k .......

This post has been edited by Veda: Apr 7 2011, 02:09 PM
TSVeda
post Apr 7 2011, 02:21 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Apr 6 2011, 09:26 AM)
Ya, that's why when people said Malaysia is different because we don't hv subprime, i really doubt it.

Maybe the reason why these people said we don't hv subprime is just because our banks are less sophisticated and don't hv a system to differentiate what are prime loans and subprime loans.

Out banks don't hv a perfect system when come to giving out loans, that's why some people managed to find loopholes (banks just want to hv a nice "loan growth" rate to push share price higher, and more loans means more income to the banks) and overstretched, heard of someone was managed to take many loans (including cd cards, personal loans and housing loans) from different banks and the housing loans were more than 10X his gross salary. and i don't think this is an isolation case. Do we not hv subprime loans??? blink.gif
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You misunderstood subprime liao. Investors are usually not subprime borrowers ....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_lending

QUOTE
Professor Harvey S. Rosen of Princeton University explained, "The main thing that innovations in the mortgage market have done over the past 30 years is to let in the excluded: the young, the discriminated-against, the people without a lot of money in the bank to use for a down payment.


So, those looking for their first home can be subprime borrowers as well. For exp. those who can't come up with the 10% downpayment,....... investors are not the "excluded"


TSVeda
post Apr 7 2011, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(wwwcomment @ Apr 7 2011, 02:57 PM)
wah 2 weeks up 20k
one year up 500k loh
what are you wating for?
fast fast grab laa
maybe borrow from loan shark also worth it
drool.gif
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I'm already vested there brows.gif
TSVeda
post Apr 7 2011, 03:14 PM

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If I could get a suitable unit at the right price, why not? laugh.gif
TSVeda
post Apr 11 2011, 08:02 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Apr 11 2011, 07:48 PM)
Can't agreed more  thumbup.gif

i think most genuine buyers are rationale la. as property prices in certain aread shot up more than 50% over just 2 years time, i think it's reasonable for a genure buyer to expect (pray for?) an adjustment of 10-20%. I don't think forummers here are expecting 50% drop in prices. I for one will definitely grab the condo that i have been monitoring if the price drops 10-15% because it's for own stay. And i don't think we are asking too much smile.gif and we are not waiting for the bottom/crisi, but waiting for a more reasonable pricing only. biggrin.gif
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Ah, but what if the price of the condo you are monitoring goes up another 20% before correcting 10%?

Mr Market dun care, in fact dunno what is "fairness" or "more reasonable pricing" .........

QUOTE
in fact if prices stagnant for 3-5 years also can buy already. Coz while the sellers are paying maintenance fees+bank interest, we the buyers on the other hand have 3-5 years more savings.  Prices stagnant for 3-5 years, adjusted for inflation, can also considered discount  biggrin.gif



What a strange way of looking at things. You willing to wait for 3-5 years? rclxub.gif What makes u think the units will be left empty while the owner "struggles" with loans, fees etc? Your savings will be eroded by inflation.
TSVeda
post Apr 11 2011, 09:26 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Apr 11 2011, 08:14 PM)
As for the erosion of my savings because of inflation, there are other ways of investing money la LOL. But for the sellers, paying interest to bank and other fees is a MUST  smile.gif

Besides, there will be new launches (developers will have to keep lauching to survive, otherwise share price will drop), market will always have supply, more choices for those who can afford to wait. If the income of malaysian are not increasing at the pace of property prices, the buyer pool will shrink forcing an adjustment. Of course, again, this is my view and my stand. smile.gif

Anyway, i do believe that there are fairly valued properties in the market, we just need to search harder, once find it, then buy all means, grab it biggrin.gif
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 11 2011, 08:35 PM)
oh, it will be a range of results.
some will keep vacant, keep paying for 5 or more yrs.
some will rent cheap.
some will sell quick.
some will end up lelong.
it's a matter of yr view on how many gorengers have the resources to pay for it all.
me, i think a good %, say 30% are quite poor, overborrow, thanks to the lax banks wanting to make $.
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How come those hoping for a price drop conveniently left out the fact that properties in the right location:

I) can be rented out at a rate that can easily cover the loan installments and other miscellaneous expenses
II) have demand from tenants that outstrips supply

In fact..... in some places, units available for sale are few, and the demand more, despite the increse in prices recently.

But I do agree with the highlighted part.

Btw have those hoping for a price drop formed a Support Club or something. Noticed a few forumers eagerly agreeing with anything posted against property price increases/evil speculators without posting opinions of their own hmm.gif



TSVeda
post Apr 11 2011, 09:51 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 11 2011, 09:37 PM)
if you get into the specifics, you get nowhere. we should keep to the generalities so as stay relevant to the thread topic. just as there are some props that will thrive come what may, some will die standing! moreover, if there are units "guaranteed" to win, will the price justify a continued "guarantee"?

this thread has been fair, imo. while there are some who try to use it to talk up prop prices, there are others who will want to talk it down. yet some will like to talk it flat or not talk at all.  tongue.gif

ok to keep going this way. biggrin.gif
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The purpose of a debate is to dissect an issue...... not talk about "generalities".

If some props thrive come what may, while some will die standing ...... can the general prices of properties drop? laugh.gif

TSVeda
post Apr 11 2011, 10:28 PM

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QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Apr 11 2011, 10:22 PM)
Well most of the inflated property price nowadays have rental yield <5%.

This is utmost unreasonable return, with large capital outlay required, low liquidity and high maintenance.

Bear in mind, the +-5% rental yield doesn't even take in the maintenance cost of condo / maintenance cost of the property.
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Properties in Singapore and Penang island have much lower rental yield compared to Klang Valley for many years before the recent price surge. But property prices there did not crash, did they?
TSVeda
post Apr 13 2011, 11:57 PM

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Very quotable quotes brows.gif

Malaysia house prices to rise 10pc: SP Setia http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...l#ixzz1JQ3KiEZ3

QUOTE
“If you expect property prices to drop, it will not drop,” Liew told reporters in Kuala Lumpur today.

“The costs don’t allow anymore. The costs have gone up so much.”




TSVeda
post Apr 16 2011, 10:28 PM

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Firstly, property is a hedge against inflation. It doesn't cause inflation. Singapore property is more expensive than ours, but the prices of goods there are comparatively and generally cheaper. Can get chicken rice for S$2.

Furthermore, high leveraged investors welcome inflation.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qi...30095044AARu4Wh

Want to know more? Do some research brows.gif

This post has been edited by Veda: Apr 16 2011, 10:30 PM
TSVeda
post Apr 18 2011, 06:22 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Apr 18 2011, 03:59 PM)
Yes, they can afford to own properties but they prefer to own brand new continental cars and changing every 3 years. Only very few are investing into properties.
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Don't stereotype please. One of the Meleis investors in this forum has nearly 20 properties (perhaps more now), and he's not yet 30!

Not referring to you, but some of those hoping for property prices to drop are so bitter that they resort to flames, personal attacks and boasts. If wanna flame, go to /k/ lah doh.gif

This post has been edited by Veda: Apr 18 2011, 06:24 PM
TSVeda
post Apr 27 2011, 08:32 PM

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QUOTE
I f you compare rental rates of property compare to their value, renting is more viable. The owner can't even cover the interest alone


Let's not generalise. Some properties, even at current prices, command enough rental to cover installments comfortably. No doubt some can't.

This post has been edited by Veda: Apr 28 2011, 06:20 AM

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