HI there,

After the announcement that Intel had purchased a substantial stake in GPacket, it doesn't seems like the stock manage to attract any upswing to its price. With its plan to roll out wimax services in M'sia by June and *fingers crossed* no news of it postponing the plan either. I'm wondering if any body had bought the share and take a gamble on it?

It just amazes me that the share price did not move up by much after the announcement. Did you guys saw something fishy that I don't?

The share didn't move up because:

1: Intel just make RM50 million in Green Packet is because they are eyeing for development in Wimax technology. They are not investment bank so their investment is not meant for share appreciation in GPacket.
Also, the particular invesetment by Intel doesn't mean GPacket profitability will rise in the future, in fact has not much relationship.

2. Goldman Sachs is heavily disposing its stake in this company recently.

3. GPacket lastest financial result is in red. <--- this is the most influential factor in stock market.

Investment in stock is for future profitability of the company. So generally share will only move if something investment or development that will boost its future profitability.
Until now, the delay of Wimax deployment won't be good news for the company.

Just my 2 cents on the stock market behaviour on how to see from the investment perspective.

Above statement has nothing to do with any recommendation on the company. Judge your own, and buy/sell on your own risk.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 31 2008, 02:19 PM

jimmyttl,

A simple question. Why do you think Gpacket can make money from WiMax service?

1) Why do you think that people will buy their service??

A) Cheaper??

B) Faster?

C) Better?

2) Why do you think that Gpacket can make money from the service?? Please note that Malaysia has one of the cheapest 3G service in the world??

Dreamer

cherroy,

saw the newspaper clip that goldman sachs had reduced their holdings to a mere 5% but another Datuk from some other company is snaping up the shares they sold. But I guess Intel would only invest rm50 million if they foresee a substantial return from it and the reason its financial result is in the red is because of the initial investment in rolling out the wimax service.

dreamer101,

have friends working in maxis and they said the internet service based on 3g connection sucks big time and connection speed + coverage is a main issue here, but i'm not sure about the speed of the 3g services provided by celcom though. developed countries only started using the wimax technology recently so I would not say it will be profitable for sure but gpacket claimed its wimax coverage can cover up to 80% of the population base (note population base & not geographical area) and I believe going wireless is cheaper than laying down cables for a broadband (m referring to TM) in the long run. GPacket even hired former TM streamyx's division president as its staff overseeing the wimax department, mind you it is that guy who laid the foundation for tm's successes in streamyx (in term of marketing & sales).

I'm not sure bout the price and I can see why you asked so with celcom & tm bundling their services together but with wimax tech based on a an enhanced version of wifi frequency, I don't expect any problem with speed. :-) I myself is no tech genius though. lol.

To sum it all up, if the statistics provided by gov is true, broadband penetration is sitll less than 20% (out of all the internet users) so I see potentials here.

Besides the divestment by goldman sachs & its financial standing in red, any other news worth to be noted huh?

thanks for participating in the discussions.

to be frank, I'm taking a gamble with this stock, high risk high gain you see =) this is what tech stocks are all about, bout still, it's worth digesting all the risks surrounding it.

uhh.. if its not priced right.. they wont work..

and while TM is rolling out the HSBB and trying to outreach as many as possible, it might be bad for 1P (or GP).

and i think 1P is rolling out in sbah swak.. so am not sure the take up rates over there..

jimmyttl,

1) I think the unlimited 3G service is RM99 per month. So, Gpacket's WiMAX service has to be cheaper or at least the same price.

<<I believe going wireless is cheaper than laying down cables for a broadband (m referring to TM) in the long run. >>

2) Yes and no. TM do not have to pay for the cable. The cable cost is FULLY amortized fro Streamyx.

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.js...276a00-fd8cb43a
3) For the new HSBB? project, the government is giving 4.8 billions to TM for the project.

4) For the 3G network, the network had been deployed. TM/Celcom/Maxis can lower their price at any time to kill off any new entrant.

So. what makes you think GPacket can be profitable by deploying a NEW network and charging for RM99 or less per month?

What is the business model?

Dreamer

A lot of company (especially on technology sector) invest small sum (For Intel to invest 50million is just like individual spending RM50) for technology development in certain company is not because they want to see the 50 millions can grow but to participate and have access and inside of the technology field that could help its core business future development which is their primary objective. May be they want to embedded the Wimax connection in their chip or whatever in the future, only they knew their primary obejctive of it. As Intel is not a investment bank, they are not the one aim for capital appreciation through buying company stake or investment but Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan etc do.

Intel might able to recoup the RM50 million even more through its chips future development related to Wimax later on as from investment in Gpacket experience but not necessary through GPacket. They can merely using Gpacket as their platform of testing or development, doesn't mean they want to recoup and gain through Gpacket. That's the different and market generally view this way.

Their primary concern is not on the 50 million investment return, got return surely good but it is the their primary objective.

Don't mean pessimistic about the Wimax or Gpacket itself but just highlight several challenge on this field based on financial view:

1. High initial capital expenditure (as you mentioned which result company turn into red), which return not yet known. FYI, in accounting standard, spending Rm1 on capital expenditure doesn't mean Rm1 loss. But loss on through depreciation on the capital invested. So company financial turning in red significantly does cause some concern, although not alarming.

2. Gpacket is not the sole Wimax service provider, there are 3 competitors (if not mistaken gov give out 3 Wimax licence). If it is a sole provider then it is good. Then you have to compete with 3 Wimax provider + existing broadband provider like 3G, streamyx.
Also the delay depoloyment of Wimax doesn't do any favour for the company especially financial result already turn into red.

3. Economy of scale is not that big for broadband in Malaysia because of population and average per capital income.
Yes, Malaysia still has low broadband penetration, but you have to consider a lot of lower income group that not afford it if monthly charge of more than RM100 especially kampung folks, sorry no offence. So 20% is not an accurate figure to show potential customers to be tapped because those rural kampung being included in the statistical count.

4. Broadband market might half saturated. Although as mentioned penetration is low at 20% but as said those who want and afford to have broadband, at least have one already. So whether they will take up Wimax with existing broadband like Streamyx still remain a big question, also you have 3G service providers also.

Just some view, doesn't mean Gpacket is not good or have no future. Instead, if the company can penetrate with high take-up rate and being dominat (like Maxis in HP), then its share might have tremendous future. Personally don't view has very good chance because of TM in place, anyway just personal opinion.

There are some serious challenging issues need to overcome mainly from economical of scale for the company to register signficant gain/profit from it. I don't know how much subscribers they need to capture to have a breakeven point, something interesting to find out also. But for sure on pricing side, they will face a lot of challenge.

I do think the main competitor/(obstacle) will come from TM because of monopolise in tele infra-structure.
Streamyx pricing and some 3G price (TM through Celcom) being lowered that can kill a lot of competitor and drive away potential customer as they have the economical scale to do it especially to fence off new telco or broadband providers.

I think it is good that you are aware of risk of it, yup, high risk high gain/loss particular in technology growth stock, no doubt about it. But if for short term speculation (as you said you took a gamble), long term future of the company has not much to do with it but share price short term movement does.

It is important don't try to mix speculation for short term with company long term future. It won't work well most of the time one. Especially on Intel investment in GPacket, don't take this kind of news to justify stock investment, it won't work well, that's why its share hardly move with this kind of news. Instead if it is Goldman Sachs investment in it rather than Intel, then different story.

Cheers.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 1 2008, 07:33 AM

dreamer,

what makes you think it won't be profitable then? I'm sure the financial analyst hired by them would have done the required calculations and risk assesment as we are talking now. You're right, either they price their service at rm99 or lower or they would not be able to compete with the other 3 giants in the industry. But by the time they reveal their price, I believe the share prices would reflect the actual value of it already, just thought of speculating on the potential movement of the price before hand

Cherroy,

you never fail in giving out constructive comments. Yes, the CEO state that at best they can only reocup the initial investment by 2011 or 2013 and till then we are only gambling on the odds of it taking off. Tech stock is simply hard for us to judge, unlike other traditional stocks. There's simply no standard method of evaluating their investments and return.

Although there are 3 other wimax licensees, 1P itself will be the first move in that spectrum, it has its advantages and disadvantages. With the other 3 not coming out with anything concrete (I believe they are just taking the wait and see stance in the mean time), we can just say that they won't be a proven direct competitors in the near to medium term. But like I mentioned again, the 3 giants in the industry are (I'm just curious as to when DIGI will be rolling out their 3G services, DIGI is always the dark horse, coming out with innovative products all the time and I'm already speculating on digi's price before it rolls out its 3g services. lol).

Regarding the saturation of the broadband market, am a little worried about it too. There's direct linkage between economic prosperity and consumer spending, if economy turns out to be so so this year, I believe it will have some impacts on the adoption of wimax by consumers too.

lol. you're right, rm50 million is peanuts for Intel. noted there.

cheers guys

mm, you seem to be so determined to get into gpacket now..

so were you merely just sharing your idea or what?

with 3G, one provider tat can roam all over in msia, i don't see any reason why would i need wimax, seriously..

1. WiMAX has clear advantage over 3G because the cost of implementation is relatively inexpensive over 3G. Therefore, WiMAX provider would able to provide affordable services to subscribers.

2. WiMAX covers huge distances compared to 3G.

3. There is a flaw in the argument itself, because 3G is originally intended as mobile phone technology targeting cellphones, PDA and handheld devices to access Internet. However, there are also demands from mobile users (including laptop users) to access Internet using 3G network. So, crossover device like 3G data card is rolled out for users to surf internet using 3G network. By right WiMAX should be compared against WiFi not 3G.

4. Anyone here surfing Internet using 3G network on laptop? well, not much because you need a crossover device plus expensive monthly charges and within limited 3G coverage.

5. To TS, there is potential for WiMAX in Malaysia or else you wont see 1P investing in WiMAX infrastructure, followed by other mobile service operators. Also take note there are also a lot of uncertainties in telecommunication arena.

I m not into these, but those interested should read more.

jimmyttl,


If you have gone through Internet bubble and Telecom bubble, you would not have make this kind of statement. In some cases which may or may not apply in the case of GPacket, company do things to sell share. It is NOT to make money.

Vv.SoViEt.vV,

1) What makes you say so??

2) Law of RF physic applies to ALL wireless technologies. Since WiMAx and 3G run approximately in the same frequency band, they cover the same distance.

5) How many failed Broadband Wireless projects that we had in Malaysia over the past 10 years?? Many.

Dreamer

mind to elaborate more on the internet bubble and telecom bubble you said earlier? as far as I know, those events are something akin to the tulip bubble faced in holland and I don't quite understand it. Are you implying that news are made to sell shares? It applies to all stocks in general I assume and with no stocks being issue in the short term. I see no benefits in raising the profiles of the company now.

but to summarise it all, dreamer101, you're saying that 1P's stock is not viable now because you see it not being able to compete with the other giants in term of cost and coverage and the news out there about Gpacket are just hypes?

Coverage wise, I don't know bout 3G coverage but if Gpacket states that its coverage can cover 80% of population base, I assume it would be big enough then.

Anybody here familiar with wimax tech? like how big is its station? If Gpacket said it can cover such a big population base, I don't hear any news of it creating any transmitting station? lol or it just need a larger version of router to create the needed coverage.

Again, if 3G is sufficient, Paris will not adopt the wimax approach to cover its city in its pursuit of ICT improvements. I just need to know the pricing of its wimax and we should be able to see its viability.

Any more comments on Gpacket?

following the links are the views of the opposing camps.
http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2008/05/gpac...xs-success.html
http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.js...98eb00-66294695

nice seeing lots of comments in here

This post has been edited by jimmyttl: Jun 1 2008, 06:27 PM

How long the gestation period? GPacket supposed to be online next month,how many devices available now to be able to use wimax?
Also why is P1 pushing Izzi if they are going to introduce wimax? Isn't it a case of redundancy/cannabilising itself?

well, it's all down to pricing like i mentioned previously; however, you need to understand that in ISP, they need economy of scale to keep bandwidth cost cheaper, which P1 does not have, the starting period is crucial for them to determine their survivability.

who cares about technology superiority? 3g or wimax, to consumer, it's just a different word, as long as i can get online with fairly reasonable speed, i'm happy with it.

celcom broadband is doing.. last i saw a promo, rm66/mo? do you think p1 can do anything like that? not to mention we can go anywhere with it and get online as long as it's celcom territory, with comparing to p1's service that is confined to a location but it might be worth considering if they could arrange nationwide roaming against all wimax provider in msia for a nominal fee..

Well seems the future of Wimax still unclear in this country. A lot of pro and con argument on this share. I would take a wait and see approach for the time being on GPacket.

On pricing between wimax and normal 3G ..... at same pricing will wimax offer better speed ?


Technology is a unpredictable ....we would not able to predict what happend 6 months down the road. The other Wimax competitor might suddently come out with a plan that can kick ass.

Broadband penetration in M'sia still slow in my opinion. Seems there still a lot people that hardly use the internet in their daily life. A lot of people i know hardly even use the internet even to check e-mail.

So for now just wait and see.

just my 2 cents

RED agains today...

it's rolling up again..

closed 1.62

Up 0.08

Results are a little mixed for the past few days. Still.. might sidetrack a little here, am wondering how bad the oil shock gonna affect bursa tomorrow.. Could just pray and watch my portfolio's value go down. Am seeing a drop by at least 5% tomorrow..bought another lot of digi today and pak lah sent me a bad news at 5pm..

1.60 now

Highest of 1.69 today.. it bucked the general trend... why ah... 0 o I don't see the logic behind this... Maybe somebody is manipulating the stock's price *grin*

Some insider news perhaps?

This post has been edited by jimmyttl: Jun 5 2008, 10:06 AM

1.50 strong support...

Hi guys...

I believe everyone realized that the market has been in bad shape lately...probably due to political issues - political instability scaring away the foreign funds?

I bought Gpacket some time ago at 2.20...and now it's 1.02...
I'm involved in some brief technical analysis stuff and found that we're still far away from a rebound...Anyway, as history suggested, the deeper the fall, the more significant the rebound is, we just hav to wait (if u have never thought of switching to other counters )

We all know that Gpacket announced some losses in its financial reports lately...the problem is, most analysts believed that the company will be making losses in the near future due to the fact that they're investing in its WIMAX project (advertising cost, bla bla bla)...Agreed?

Intel invested in Gpacket (50 mil) and I understand that this could be more like R&D cost for Intel - so that they can further develop their chips (just my personal opinion) and this might not have attracted buyers.

As for the disposal of stakes for Goldman and the big guys...Well...My idea is...these guys are one of the best investment firms in the world, quality is all that matters...There are millions of companies in the world, and thousands of counters listed on Bursa, why Gpacket? when they know that there are better companies out there....
So when the big guys are disposing their shares, it doesn't really mean that Gpacket is in trouble (or it could be , anyway no one knows)

To sum up, I'm on the side of believing Gpacket has got the potential in bringing u some good profits, it's just a matter of time...

Appreciate advice from anyone...

Thanks heaps

GPACKET had officially become a penny stock @ 0.96 . From it's high of around 7.00, now become 0.96 in less than 2 year, mesdaq boleh...buy le

guys,

may i know the dividend yield for Green packet @ RM1.00?

do they pay dividend?

Gpacket..i notice these stock..bought some at 1.20...now...aiya

The most recent one was a bonus issue and consolidation of shares...U may check out the announcement under Bursa to get more details...

---

Added on July 5, 2008, 2:33 amNeo18, i missed that out on the previous reply...u might wanna check out the financial statements under the Company's Annual Report...from there u can find out bout the ratios or figure stuff...

Cheers

---

Added on July 9, 2008, 11:59 pmHey guys...i'm thinking of getting some gpacket stocks....any advice?
Public Mutual recently launched a new fund related to telecommunications and infrstructure....does tat mean the financial analysts actually see the potential on telco? what bout Gpacket's potential in relation to this?

Cheers

This post has been edited by dcyc: Jul 9 2008, 11:59 PM

go in now..Targer at Rm1.50

1.36 today. I bought some lot few week ago at 1.26. Still waiting the 2Q report, b4 make a next move. i hope it not too bad eventh it going to be -ve. Any news about Wimax?

i have @1.1

Any potential for this stock to raise back?

I bought a few lots @ 1.13 and now it is 0.78 :-S

We will see by 2009 whether WIMAX pickup in Malaysia as more Centrino 2 based laptops are available on the market.

The price doesnt move up coz now is bear market di. If announced during bull, then it will help.
1 year Target price for GPACKET 0.35.

i join u...

My friend working in GPacket told me that GPacket got 3G license from Singapore, I'm wondering if this will bring up the share price ? The buy Q has grown stronger b4 the day they announce their quarter financial result.

Also heard that they are going to launch a new product, not sure when is it.

This post has been edited by alivecmh: Feb 21 2009, 10:43 AM

so may expect this stock to be goreng again next week

I didn't know Singapore government issuing new 3G license. There is already 3 license in 2004. Can you post the link here?

I get the news from my friend working in GPacket, not from any website. Just dunno if that is true.

Singapore already issued several 3G license and they are issuing again?

Even so, getting the 3G license doesn't mean profitable as well for the company as competition is intense in this area while until now, lot of telco company are struggling to recoup and breakeven its investment in 3G infrastructure.

Gpacket financial already in red now, further getting 3G license means massive capital expenditure ahead, which further stress the company cashflow and financial situation.

I'm sorry, My friend is referring to Wimax, not 3G.

Wimax itself in Malaysia is not yet proven to be profitable.

Actually I a bit doubt on some broadband offered outside of the original telco company, wireless broadband is facing several compeitition, streamyx, 3G, Wimax. While current market is dominated by ADSL (streamyx) and 3G connection, for Wimax to penetrate into them is not easy task, especially not from origin telco company backing.

Broadband business in Malaysia even some other countries are not that lucrative, you need large base of customers which is the most important factor to offset high set up cost for broadband service.

While HP business is a lucrative business.

I might be wrong, feel free to correct me.

I support your statement.

As an internet user, free Wi-Fi is available nationwide, I don't know how do they profit maybe eateries cafe offer it to get more customer, I don't really mind of the speed as long as I can stay connected outside, but if I really need to download anything I would have use my home ADSL instead of Wi-Fi or even a faster WiMax cause I know the speed sucks + delay + different location different results of the Wireless connection provided.. Unless they can introduce a more stable wireless connection that can beat a home line.

I've used Digi and Celcom wireless, randomly WiFi outside, tested at different location with speedtest.net the ping is much more higher than home line. Well this is just a view from online gamer myself xD

Well, there is a big congestion for 3G wireless broadband lines in the heart of KL, especially when the financial markets are open.

I have a Celcom 3G low end data line , hardly able to access in places like Bkt Bintang financial area.

Outside KL a bit like Selangor, have better access ( not congested ).

The potential of 3G broad band is there, though at infant stage and low speed of max 3.6, whereas in overseas is at 7.2.

My home WiFI for notebook is as good and fast as PCs linked through ntework cable ( as per the speed test meter ).

My home Wifi though out dated allows 54 mbps ( a few years back ) , whereas the internet speed is far below 54mbps.

The problem does not arise fr computer equipments, but largely due to the internet speed provided by service providers.

Wimax claims higher speed than ASDL, but do not know any congestions or so bcos it is still new.

By the way. 3G modems are selling very well in Lowyat.net.

3G has the advantage of portability , just like HP over fixed line. Good to access financial news, sending emails. do internet banking etc while on the moves.

Maybe able to google the location maps , before searching for potential clients' places.

3G data line is fixed cost with unlimited usage, another advantage over HP calls.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 21 2009, 06:32 PM

I would like to add this:

WIMAX is deemed as a solution for last mile connection. Countries like Singapore would not have any last mile connectivity problem because island is small, major population lives in high rise apartment, obstruction to line of sight which limits WIMAX coverage.

IMO, Gpacket may not be benefiting if they roll out their WIMAX services in Singapore. BUT, my doubts are why would Singapore wants to issue WIMAX spectrum when they already have so many wifi hot spots available. It would be wasting the spectrum resources, unless of course Singapore wants major telcos in the world venturing into WIMAX to make Singapore as their testing ground.

My humble 2 cents opinion.

Gpacket subsidiary company P1 won chile wimax license
http://www.bnamericas.com/news/telecommuni...oadband_project

won license... share price dip... darn.. tried catching it at 0.925.. missed the boat when it suddenly dipped to 0.92... trying to average out the ones I bot at 0.96sen...

No matter how many license one is getting, without turning into a profitability or the business is not profitability, it means nothing.
It just mean high initial capital expenditure only to set up infrastructure if those business is not able to contribute positively especially cashflow, then it is not good for its share price.

True Cherroy... during bad times, these sort of news will not generate interest.. but during good times.. profit is not an issue.. getting the license is like getting a golden goose.. it will just fly... but today, its like getting poison.. .

Agree during good time, it will fly, but still in actual fact, Wimax profitability still is a doubt, as it is not a sole media or broadband that available in the market which need to compete with others especially 3G is more popular now while being offered by traditional telco company which smaller company that offering Wimax is facing tough competition with them.

GPacket is at 0.82 today

'

Wait till streamyx launches its high spead broadband. Speed from 8GBps to 10GBps. They have already installed in my area. I can't wait.

I'm 1 out of 2 subscribers who are really happy with Streamyx. Customer service is getting better. Connection is stable, fast, and I hardly have problems.

Are you getting wrong section? We are discussing the share of GPacket. Not discussing the internet speed

If you refer to speed offered by P1, the sub of GPacket, you'd see that they wont be able to compete. Internet speed, coverage, price are what makes the product mix. Am I wrong to say that?

P1 needs 3 years to win a decent market share. If that takes so long, why the rush to buy it now? They can do it by either making their product damn good or damn cheap. Cheap oso must look at area, if they had coverage at rural areas, they could at least beat TM since their lowest speed package is priced lower than Steamyx. But obviously due to cost concerns, they can only cover urban areas where there are more sophisticated and slightly wealthier internet users who would prefer something faster than 384kp/s.

I've had a long write up on this GP in another thread, will cut and paste if you'd like. This is more indepth, with competitor mix and stuff. But if you are going to get defensive, then it beats the need for discussion. Cheers and good luck.

Right now P1 is facing so much problem with their service

They stop the dongle due to firmware issue.
The connection speed drop when heavy rain.
The infra work seem like suddenly stop, they edi backlog since early this year.
YTLE is now testing their own wimax, now only for thier own corp use, tie with samsung and quite a few GP staff jump ship to YTLE, expect them to start launching very soon.
Seems the company very kelam kabut in their operation.

Really thanks for you info. I was misunderstood your point.

It's ok. Sometimes misunderstandings can occur. Plus, I simply type such a short message only, cos I was replying from another thread that got closed because repeated. So my fault oso for not being clear.

I can't find the thing i posted up. But I think cherroy probably wrote a lot thats about the same as my point.

You may choose to buy Gpacket if the price goes down a lot a lot to goreng. I think today dropped a bit plus its been sliding down anyways. Tomorrow might drop a lot more. But you must wait for market to improve, trading volume to improve and wait for the goreng kakis to come first.

I don't think its suitable for long term. There's no rush to buy if a company only can be expected to make decent profit in 3 years time. Especially since this prolongement would mean they have to deal with operational costs and interests from debt. Interest from debt can kill a company.

---

Added on May 28, 2009, 7:46 pmAre u using WiMax? So it's bad? I only heard from friends who knows friends who have these. So get their feedback, but very third party so dunno if its really that bad.

This post has been edited by omores: May 28 2009, 07:46 PM

the services quality will only steady in next 4years.

in the end WiMax sucks..
lets see how http://www.ytlesolutions.com/ manage to overcome all the problem that now P1 is facing..
if YTL manage to overcome.. then walah... we should be investing on YTL instead of GPACKET

I participate when testing the dongle last year, use for 2 months, actually I like the dongle pretty much. Fren working at P1

how stupid i sold off all my latexx at 0.95 an bought 130lots GP the day before the Latexx share surge to 1.20. lose a change to earn RM2k++
However, i will continue keep the share and see what happen next. Too many bad news from GP now, the share will continue to shrink, plan to buy in more to average the price. 0.60 is the lowest price in past 12months, if hit 0.60 again, i think i should sell off my share to cut loss.

1. How does Wimax compare with 3G? If you think 3G is good, well, Wimax is actually 4G - it's like wireless ADSL.

2. How does Wimax compare with Wifi? Wimax has bigger coverage, faster and more stable. It also supports VOIP, which will be bundled by GPacket by the end of the year.

3. How does Wimax compare with Streamyx? It's wireless, which means you can be mobile - surf in a bus, etc. This also means you can roam, i.e. surf anywhere in Malaysia with Wimax coverage, and not just from your home.

4. GPacket is not only in the business of providing Wimax in Malaysia. It's also an "enabler" for Wimax services overseas. They've also spent a lot on R&D for Wimax CPEs (dongle, wireless base stations, etc) which they'll sell overseas. GPacket also has wireless solutions (e.g. for 3G) that is sold to telcos all over the world.

5. "...interest from debt". I'm interested to know where you got this info from. Because AFAIK, GPacket is in net cash position and the base stations were built from internal funds. Even their building at Jalan Templer was bought cash.

6. Did you know that P1 is used as a case study by Intel, etc. at Wimax conferences overseas? Because it's currently the most successful commercial Wimax service in the world.

In stock market perspective wise, investors are looking for how fast it can balance its book aka turn the Wimax service into a highly profitability business.

There is a research show that they need at least 200K + subscribers to balance their book, currently they managed to sign up around 30K+ under heavy promotion across the countries.

Currently market concern is they are burning cash fast with need lot of initial capital on infrastructure, but profitability wise they need 200K subscribers, which is not easy task.

Basically, stock market care about future profitability of the company and cashflow. Even they are the most successful company in the world to roll over Wimax service but cannot turn the business into highly proftaibility wise, stock market won't like it.
So market will like it if their financial report turning fast and cashflow position improving.

According to Gpacket's CEO in an interview in one of the mags, they're on target to achieve 200,000 subscribers by years-end. The latest report also shows that revenue has increased because of subscriber growth, but loss has also widen because of the base stations that are being built, naturally.

These are 3 more things that I like about Gpacket:

1. The bulk of their cost is upfront, so while you can expect losses now, they will start to show profit once they're completed rolling out the base stations.

2. Intel will start building Wimax chips into laptops and PDAs by years-end or next year - that's when you'll see real subscriber growth.

3. Gpacket is expected to list P1.

Of course you can wait to play it safe, but it'll definitely not be at the current price level anymore.

The problem is that I think it is way too optimistic to see subscribers base shoot up from 30K to 200K within this year. If there is no broadband penetration right now, yes, that's for sure achievable. But bulk of people having streamyx and 3G connection currently. So basically they need to convince people to ditch their existing subscription or having a second/another broadband service.

Streamyx has now many subsribers currently? should be around 1 milllion+ after being pioneer in broadband whom tapped the untapped market and with readiness of last miles connection across the countries.

Basically people want affordable, reliable, high speed broadband, be it 3G, streamyx, 4G, 5G etc. Technology wise is only the one dictate how people would like it, it is the aforementioned factors the dictate how people response to it.

Don't mean it is unachievable but not easy task.

1. There are still lot of maintenance cost as well. Profit will only come in if there are large enough subscribers. If a base station cost 5 million, and usable for 5 years, depreciation will eat up the profit of 5 million but it is spreading 1 million each year.
It is the cashflow of 5 million gone.

2. Don't know got this kind of plan, so pardon me on this. But if it is, then positive for Wimax service providers.

3. Mainly because of cashflow issue, if not they won't intend to list it as it just means lesser P1 revenue can be booked into Gpacket financial book as you can't hold possibly more than 75% stake for a listing company.

If P1 is having good future and profitability, I would take directly P1 instead of Gpacket.

My view only.

After split
GP will see green balance sheet due to he carry a lot contracts at oversea. Also, GP will become the main supplier for P1 as well

P1 will continue suffer a huge loss since P1 is only target on Malaysia market currently. Also, P1 do not have diversify business.

Split is good for GP not P1 in next few years until P1 finished build all the stations around Malaysia.

Cherroy, the reason for the split is not because of cashflow issues. They can always use their pile of cash or raise through rights issues like recently announced.

The main reason is because of conflicts of interest, e.g. P1 competes with Maxis's 3G, but Maxis is a customer of Gpacket too.

I personally think a long term investment into GPacket is not wise right now seeing a lot of fundamentals issue right now which has yet to be improved.

First of all, from market news. GPacket is burning cash huge and seeing red since last year. Whether this can be turned around is still on paper target only. With recession moving deeper, more red is expected to be seen. The Greatest Depression will begin in September in US. There might be buying opportunity during the mess but not right now.

Secondly, the service of the Wimax is absolute frustration. Check the Network section in this forum and you will see complains unattended by customer service. Login failure. Bad coverage. Downtime. Slow speeed. Lagging until impossible to play online games or HD streaming (High Latency). They really need to improve their routing. Only casual browsing and mails checking. Feel like another TMnuts but in wireless or even worse. They expand fast but infrastructure is not catching up. It is showing sign of oversell and unable to handle current capacity. If you can't convince people to ditch their current and move to WIMAX then I see no future in this. It just a another service to tap into the non-hardcore user which need mobility. If the GP cant improve their core selling product with competitive pricing for general public then I see no future. Current price is still high.

Besides that, one must also look into the darker side of business in Malaysia. When GP got the WIMAX license through special means, thus door opened for some big guns in the government. How many money flowing is below the table?

All good share will start from worst. from worst then only you can buy a cheap good share for future.

GP look like make a come back again today. May be due to they going to issue right and try to push the share as high as possible.

Broadband is the most stable technology, but do you know the first broadband technology was used in 1940 for military purpose in world war 2.

Wimax is new technology, faster in world. The coverage is continue to grow at every where. Which the equipments technology today, we no need to wait 60years to make it stable. GP got contract at china and Taiwan. the market is very big, at Malaysia it may just a head quarter. Do you think Malaysia is big enough and the spending power is very strong? Average monthly income USD15000/person at Malaysia but USD58000/person at Singapore. We are actually very poor.

look at KLTEC Index

Green packet is the top 3 heavy weight after MPI and UNISEM

seems to me a breakout in progress.

Congrat to those holding Gpacket

i sold 1.00 before in past 4 weeks ago. still hold 130lots 0.82 bought aweek after i sold 1.00, bought too early and put too much money at the same time.
however no plan to sell it yet.

lots of volume come to supportin this few days, Gpacket might continue its good run.....
who knows!!

i jz bought 150lot, Gpacket uptrend now...

prepare ur pocket to collect money

since today price 0.705..is still worth to purchase some???i means for short runs ( keep for 3 week)

haha, die kao kao today, suffered RM5K in single day. sold all shares on hand and convert into phama and medicine related share except GP.

Gpacket is losing money all the way. Why are investors still pushing it share price up? Can someone offer a logical explanation?

They're losing money because of high capex from building base stations. This type of business, the main bulk of the expenditure is at the initial stage. Once they finished building, they'll have wide coverage and hence more subscribers.

By next year, Intel will be building WiMAX modems into laptops, PDAs and smartphones - that's when it'll really take off. Gpacket also has plans to spin-off P1 in 2~3 years time so it's a good long-term play if you can pick up at RM0.60+.

But I heard some rumor saying P1 will be seperated from GPACKET in a very near future..

Emm... that's what I said above - GPacket plans to spin-off P1 in 2~3 years.

so after that what's their main source of income?
i think P1 having quite some portion of GPACKET income in future although now expanding coverage area might cost a lot.

Come on, pls read star news paper. it will split on early of next year. Announced by their CEO when issue right on May.

far from me to claim to be able to analyse companies , so i'll let this guy do it for me ....


http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2009/0...ent-levels.html

bought GPacket 15000 x 0.72 today

good luck!!! sure win

gpacket is moving downwards or in down trend, not a good time to enter unless u r holding for long time

Any idea why is it moving downward?

come down buy some more!!!

my next entry price 0.68

maybe their 2008 financial report is turning red for 4 quarter and still continue showing losses for the latest quarter,

my 13000 stuck on 0.82 sometime. the share up to 0.85 once, but i didn't sell it. plan to buy more if the price go down to 0.65. next target is 0.60 then stop buying. i won't put all money in the same hole.

been targeting since monday @0.68
did not manage to get any units..

Guys, may i know when is the proposed right issue?

neo is full of confidence, dont play2 with him. this share probably will shoot up when they make first time profit

bought another 10000 unit @ 0.705 today.. don't wanna wait liow

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Added on July 15, 2009, 11:15 amLadies and Gentlement.

I have decided to go big on this counter. I've been buying, bit by bit lately.
But price been surging up to 0.75 now. I hope it come down.

I do not think it will be a problem for it to double it;s price by next year may 2010

since i have time and money to spare. I am going to sai lang.

currently i have 35000 unit.

I wanna take it up to 50000 unit

This post has been edited by Neo18: Jul 15 2009, 11:15 AM

up so fast... ~
cant managed to buy 1... ~

It touched 80sen this morning, then succumbed to profit taking to close at 78sen at midday. Still a good price for mid to long term holding. I got mine at 74sen.

bought another 20000 unit @ 0.76 today.

will continue buying until reach 100,000 unit!!!